John's 2008 Draft Board (As of 12 Noon, May 17)
by John Sickels on May 17, 2008 12:48 PM EDT
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PrintHere is a look at my current draft board. THIS IS NOT A PREDICTION OR PROJECTION OF THE FIRST ROUND. This is my current personal opinion of these players. This will continue to change as we approach draft day and some players are already ranked differently compared to the lists I've been doing this past week.
1) Buster Posey, C, Florida State: Great bat, has proven to be solid defender.
2) Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS: Overall tools package.
3) Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS: Hits, fields, and intuition loves him.
4) Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: Love him almost as much as Posey.
5) Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: Best college bat but not as valuable defensively as Posey and Beckham.
6) Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri: Stock has dropped just a hair but still looks great to me.
7) Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego: Could easily flip with Crow.
8) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt: Injury knocks him back a couple of notches but still elite.
9) Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS: All reports look great. Signability?
10) Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami: Another bat impossible not to love.
11) Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State (ASSUMES GOOD HEALTH REPORTS): I loved him before he got hurt, not sure how to rank him now.
12) Aaron Hicks, OF-RHP, California HS: Hitter or pitcher? Either way I think I'd rank him here.
13) Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky: A safe solid pick.
14) Josh Fields, RHP, Georgia: Great stuff, could move quickly, affordable.
15) Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane: Great stuff, command is an issue.
16) Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia HS: I'm assuming he will get drafted as a pitcher.
17) Bret Wallace, 3B-1B, Arizona State: Patience and power.
18) Ike Davis, OF, Arizona State: I rated him a bit ahead of Wallace before and they could flip flop again.
19) Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami: Not sure he will have an impact bat like these other guys but all-around talent keeps him in the middle of the round.
20) Andrew Cashner, RHP, TCU: Closer prospect has risen rapidly. Could move up further.
21) Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS: Opinions are starting to shift about this guy, some rate him in the top 15 still, others have him dropping out of the Top 30 altogether. I don't know what to think.
22) Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina: Love the bat, though I expect him to move to third.
23) Zach Putnam, RHP, Michigan: I seem to like him more than other people do.
24) Kyle Lobstein, LHP, Arizona HS: My opinion of him is rising but signability looks like a problem.
25) Eric Thames, OF, Pepperdine: I buy into the bat improvement.
26) David Cooper, 1B, California: Another power bat that should do well in pro ball.
27) Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Illinois HS: I was thinking about him as a second rounder but stock has risen dramatically lately and the more I study the more I like him.
28) Ryan Perry, RHP, Arizona: Power arm, erratic but a high ceiling.
29) Isaac Galloway, OF, California HS: Another guy I like more than other people it seems. Is he getting nitpicked?
30) Jason Castro, C, Stanford: I'm not 100% convinced about the bat yet.
Expect this list to change a lot, especially after the top ten.
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John,
what are your thoughts on Allan Dykstra?
--http://yankeesfuture.wordpress.com Bobby Mcnally (alias) "Whatever the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve."--Napoleon Hall
dykstra
I see Dykstra as a supplemental or second round guy.
by John Sickels on May 17, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
supp
Wild guess, but I’d say the supplemental round.
by John Sickels on May 17, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Vandy
I think it may take a pretty serious offer for Gray to give up his commitment to Vanderbilt. My guess is that there is not a team willing to offer him enough and he ends up going to play for Tim Corbin and the Dores.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Gray will play college ball
He’s to small at this point. I love this kid as a prospect, but with the injury and Vanderbilt awaiting, I just don’t see a team shelling out the dough that will make him go the pro ball route. As it is, he might not even get selected in the opening round.
He’s going to Vandy.
In your opinion,
who will get to the majors fastest from this group? I’d say G. Beckham or Smoak.
I am like your Dan Aykroyd and biglow would be Jane, the ignorant slut. -Chad
High Schoolers
Not many high schoolers in the first round… where do you project some of the higher upside high schoolers like Zach Collier and Andy Massey going??
Down with Leitch!!!
Noticed that one too about HS pitchers
Is it a poor crop of HS or does John see more college guys?
Garrit Cole
All I hear is people downgrading him for this and that…imaturity, mechanics… then i finally see a clip and i see Jake Peavy-like, electric stuff and command of a couple good breaking pitches.
What really gives on the lack of love for this kid? Is he immature as in…an idiot? or is he …just a kid? We were all immature then…or most of us anyways.
Isaac Galloway
I think he’ll be a fine MLB player. I agree that he’s seems to be sliding in some opinions. I’ve seen him go off the board in the mid-1st in a couple of mocks. If he’s still there in ours at 28 he’ll become a New York Yankee.
I haven’t even considered him, because he SHOULD be drafted 10-12 slots ahead of my pick.
Has Alvarez's stock really dipped this much?
And if this is the case, could he slide into the teens?
alvarez
pedro had a heck of a day today
by fewgoodcards on May 17, 2008 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
This looks like a case of SNTS. People seem to forget the numbers Alverez has CONSISTENTLY put up in college, and are focusing on the guys off to great starts in college ball this season. He broke his hamate bone but I doubt major league scouts would rank him nearly this low.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on May 18, 2008 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Is his stock dropping?
Or is this just a case of John dropping him because of signability concerns? If he’s a #10 pick I’d still like the Giants to pick him up at #5.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
If Alvarez drops to #5, I'll be surprised since
he would be a perfect fit for KC, SF or the Pirates. Elite college bat who could move quickly and play corner IF or OF spot. At this stage of draft coverage, guys who are consistently good like Crow and Alvarez seems to lose ground to the “hot player” like G. Beckham or Posey.
Gordon Beckham
Do you think he’ll stick at SS? I’ve seen alot of reports saying he’ll have to move. I like him alot, personally I’d probably take him over Tim. Definitely hope he falls to the O’s.
Will Gose go in the Supplemental?
Or will he drop even futher?
He wants to be a hitter, so if we look him merely as such where is he going to be drafted?
Any thoughts?
Posey Beckham
1) Buster Posey, C, Florida State: Great bat, has proven to be solid defender.
4) Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: Love him almost as much as Posey.
Not sure I understand—if John likes Beckham “almost” as much as Posey, then why is Posey first and Beckham fourth?
I think that’s his way of saying he likes all four of those guys a lot.
by Dan from NM on May 18, 2008 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
definition of "almost"
If I “almost” like girl B as much as I like girl A, guess who I am going to the Prom with?
Seriously though, it looks as if he compares the two college bats very closely since #2 & #3 are HS bats. Maybe Posey gets the nod as he is a catcher even though SS is also a highly valued defensive position.
Personally, I am very intrigued by how this draft will pan out. Here are some questions off the top of my head that I am anticipating finding out the answer to:
A) Does TB really want Posey at 1 or are they throwing up a smoke screen?
B) Will Pedro’s wrist injury really have an impact on his draft position?
C) Who is the first SP: Matusz or Crow?
D) Does Sonny Gray get drafted early or does he drop due to Vandy commitment and injury?
E) How will Tanner Scheppers injury affect his draft position?
F) Will one of the “big” guys drop due to the Boras effect and then which of the big spenders grab a top player who ends up falling into the late 1st round? Will the Yankees or Tigers get another steal that they are willing to pay over slot?
G) Where will Brett Wallace be drafted? Is he really a mid 1st rounder or is he a supplemental round guy?
H) What are we to make of Tim Melville’s Senior season?
I) Is this really a down year for high school pitchers?
J) How good will Milwaukee’s haul be as they have 6 early picks?
Alright, well, I could continue with some other fascinating questions that will remain unanswered for a few more weeks, but I will stop there.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
A Few early projections on my part:
When its all over:
Best HS Bat- Eric Hosmer (truly special bat speed, 70 power in my book to go along with a good glove over at first and a strong arm – 92 MPH off the mound).
Best HS Arm- Ethan Martin( Power pitcher size at 6’2 200. Well built muscularly speaking with a plus slider and a split-fingered change that has flashed plus potential at times, including at LaGrange against American Heritage HS and all their glory. All in all he is the complete power pitcher’s package.)
Best College Bat- Gordon Beckham (Ive been on the G Beckham bandwagon for 2 years so this is an easy pick for me. Plus power for the SS position, good range, can make the tough plays-though his hands scare me a little on the routine grounders- and he has underappreciated speed on the base paths).
Best College Arm- Im tempted to say Josh Fields here, because i think he’ll have a H Street like impact on a team immediately, but ill go with the lefty and say Matsuz. I think he’ll end up settling down as a solid No.2 with the ability to miss alot of bats.
Most overrated pick of the draft- Pedro Alvarez. His injury may temper people’s opinion a bit, but he came in and in some circles is still regarded as this elite prospect in the mold of former teammate David Price from Vandy. With all the media exposure and hype he’s been seen for most hte year as a lock for surefire number 1 pick, but Alvarez has holes. Price was the number 1 pick in February last year and it was a joke to think TB would take anyone else. But Alvarez has flaws in his swing that can be exploited. I can’t give one GREAT reason, but im going with my gut which tends to be right and saying Alvarez will be a dissapointment.
What are everyone else’s thoughts?
Their approach is almost exclusively stat based and it took them a long time to jump off the Alvarez bandwagon. Last year when he was knocking the piss out of the ball, they said he was the best player in the draft. This year, he has an injury and his numbers suffer so they bump him down. I’m not saying that is a bad thing but that is based mostly on his poor numbers this year. If you don’t want to discount his season at all for the injury, that is up to you.
Anthony Hewitt - SS - HS (Connecticut)
Are you added him to your list? What do you make of the late hype and this virtually unknown player now projected to leave the board in the middle of the 1st round? Does this happen every year?
hype
Haven’t decided in Hewitt yet. I tend to be suspicious of late hype guys…but we will see.
by John Sickels on May 22, 2008 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
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