Struggling Sophomore Hitters
by The Congo Hammer on May 14, 2008 10:26 AM EDT
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PrintThere's been a power shortage around the league, but I find the most surprising lack of power to be coming from some top prospects who showed some pop and potential in 2007. I know it's still early, but I think these are still causes for concern if nothing else. Here are the biggest AL dropoffs from 2007 debuts.
Delmon Young - Moved to the 7th spot, not hitting for great average, Zero HR, only Stealing bases. What's going on? Still same bad periphs, but is he really just not good enough to get by with them?
Billy Butler - Started off strong, has tailed off a good deal. Where's that 40 HR power boys? I thought it then and still think it now, John's projection may not have been that far off. Still, he needs some more power to even fulfill that projection.
Travis Buck - One of the most concerning strugglers, went from being an solid OBP leadoff machine to a K/BB disaster and it reflected in his overall performance. Maybe some time in Triple-A will set him right again.
Adam Lind - Doing well in Triple-A, barely had a chance and struggled with it. He wasn't that great in 07, but he wasn't that bad and with Thomas and Wells gone he should really be given a bigger shot right now.
Franklin Gutierrez - Has shown a little bit of power and a little bit of speed, but he's sporting a weak average and just really hasn't yet fulfilled expectations. Still can turn it around IMO.
Feel free to add any names I forgot to mention. Who will rebound from a bad April, who will continue to disappoint and why? Discuss.
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Butler
if only because he’s probably going to see plenty of ABs still.
As for Delmon, his peripherals are terrible as you mentioned. His power is pretty much non-existant so far in his career. Last year he hit a jack once every 49 abs. Maybe his extremely poor pitch selection is holding him back or maybe his power isn’t as huge as we thought it might be. At a similar age francoeur, with the same poor pitch selection, was hitting close to 30 bombs. But Delmon is still extremely young and could turn it around. But right now I see his upside as being Garret Anderson with steals. Thats a damn good player, but not a total stud, HOF lock like he was made out to be.
Carlos Quentin's time has arrived.
by Team Moneyball on May 14, 2008 11:22 AM EDT reply actions
Hmm
Anybody else here see some similarities between Delmon & Jay Bruce?
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on May 16, 2008 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
i agree with butler
simply because hes at least hitting for decent average and hes young like everyone else. who knows what will really happen though.
"If you were a hot dog, would you eat yourself?"
I think most of Bucks problems, were and will continue to be the nagging
injuries he incurs. He has hit well in AAA, since he got healthy.
Buck
Buck has been battling shin splints since Spring Training, was finally put on the disabled list, and was optioned back to AAA to continue getting healthy after a rehab assignment. He’s hitting the ball okay in AAA now.
I’m more worried about his injury proneness than I am his slow start.
Buck
I really don’t understand the K’s this season. but it was a very small sample size.
Go Pirates!!!
by cool hand Charlie on May 14, 2008 12:59 PM EDT reply actions
Butler
Where is the 40 hr power? How many 22 year olds hit 40 hr in the majors? Most guys that young are still in high A or double A. The fact that he is hitting for a decent average as a 22 year old in the majors is very impressive. Butler will take a few years to develop but in his prime he will settle into a .300+ hitter with 25-35 hr power.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on May 14, 2008 4:02 PM EDT reply actions
I agree
I think he will have the power in time, but I was more attacking the overly optimistic attacks on John’s projections from earlier in the season than actually attacking Butler. I think it’s definitely possible he stays in the 25 HR range but with an outstanding average, which is far from disappointing. I think he’ll be fine and should have a bigger breakout in ‘09. Time is definitely on his side.
Hey fish, leave those kids alone!
by The Congo Hammer on May 14, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
to be honest...
I’ve never heard ANYONE claim he had 40+ HR power.
Sure I’ve heard around 30, and thats what I expect in his prime, but there are very few prospects with true 40 HR power.
+1
There is little doubt that Butler will hit .300+ and I agree with you when his power is projected around 30 hr. In the post-steroid error, I think that 30 hr will be extremely impressive.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on May 14, 2008 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
home runs
i think if he becomes what we hope 25-30 on a regular basis is reasonable. i think in his peak year he could absolutely make it to 40 though, not on ar egular basis but once or twice. the lineup hes in also hurts him, he has no protection right now.
"If you were a hot dog, would you eat yourself?"
if you haven't
Check out the comments under Billy Butler’s crystal ball. The expectations from some posters of him going into the season were rather outlandish
Hey fish, leave those kids alone!
by The Congo Hammer on May 15, 2008 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Except
Once upon a time Maggs actually used to steal a lot of bases. I also don’t see Butler as having similar injury issues due to different body type and position. I see Lyle Overbay as the likely downside and Mike Sweeney as the likely upside (not considering the minute chances that he either flops completely as a major leaguer or becomes the next Manny Ramirez), which is damn good if Butler can avoid the injury bug that bit Sweeney.
Hey fish, leave those kids alone!
by The Congo Hammer on May 15, 2008 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point
I did forget about about Maggs’ SB numbers, but I’ve always thought his vital line would look similar. I’ve heard the Sweeney comparison a lot and with that…I’d also be thrilled. Seems like you almost forget about how good Mike was before the injury bug bit him.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
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