Seattle Mariner's Mock Orginization Diary #1
Okay, first MY draft philosophy: I'm of the opinion that if I was running things for the M's draft that I would be looking for HITTERS, first of all, this season because A) Ther draft is strong with them, especially college ones B) They tend to be underrated when they arent' at a premium position and a good one will likely drop to the 20th pick and others later in the draft as well. C) You need to be able to really hit to make an impact in the big leagues if you play at Safeco Field. I think you need to make hitters a premium if you are drafting for Seattle...if you want to win. This is just a guideline though. The #1 rule is... take the best future big leaguer.
Mariners pick 20th in round one, 66th overall in round and 98th overall in round 3. I'm open to discussing ANY player you think should be considered for a draft board for either of these 3 picks or players recommended for later in the draft. Anybody who comments should consider themselves a SCOUT however, for the purposes of this excercise...
I want to hear what you think a player will do as a big leaguer. Go out on a limb! Have an opinion. Tell me what you think based on what you have seen, heard, read, stats, whatever. I do have a preference for opinions based on what you have SEEN however.
I will start with a poll of players 15-23 on BA's recent hot sheet...because I assume all of the top 15 will be gone. I really like Brett Wallace and I think he deserves a strong look as the pick myself but I am willing to listen to any strong opinions or ideas. I was really impressed by what I have seen of Ethan Martin's swing as well...AMAZING power potential. He has been rising up the boards as a pitcher though right now.
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Wallace.
If the Mariners are ever going to build a successful offense, it’s going to be around left-handed power. Safeco kills righty sluggers, but actually helps their southpaw counterparts. The Yankees understand this about their ballpark—why not the M’s?
Wallace would be a pick that could move fast, and could combine with Jeff Clement to give the team two strong lefties in the middle of the order.
by DrunkIrish on May 12, 2008 8:53 PM EDT 0 recs
I agree
With you actually. This is without knowing a whole lot about some of the HS players in the draft though. I have seen eric Hosmer play a few times and I cannot understand why anyone thinks he’ll be a better hitter than Wallace. Hosmer has a better glove and a better body (who doesn’t) but, that is no reason to draft a 1b for your club.
by casejud on
May 13, 2008 12:07 AM EDT
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Wallace
I like Wallace from that list, though I remember a poster from a mariner board who goes to ASU saying something about him being a known juicer, but who knows. Obviously if Alonso drops, I think he is the guy. If Wallace is gone, do you think about over drafting another lefty 1B, either Ike Davis or David Cooper? The other guy who I like a lot, but probably wont be available is Hicks. He could be ready to take over in CF right when Ichiro is done. But again, he would have to fall to use, which is unlikely.
My board for hitters looks like this(with the top 3 being unlikely to fall to us)
Hosmer
Alonso
Hicks
Wallace
Davis
Cooper
Raben
As for the pitchers on that list, I like what I hear about friedrich. Lefty’s fit well in Safeco, and Meyer’s size is quite intriguing. I would probbaly slot them in that order in between Davis and Cooper.
I also want to throw out a name for the last pick. David Phelps RHP Notre Dame. He had a great year his sophmore season, but has just been OK this year. I saw everyone of his game sin the Alaska league after his freshman season, and he was very impressive if inconsistent. He can definiteley miss bats. Throws 89-92 with a good slider. I don’t know how he is thought of in this draft. That may be a huge overdraft, or maybe it is right where he will go. But I just wanted to throw that name out there. I think he would be a good late pick up that could move relatively fast in the org
by VanillaGorilla on May 13, 2008 11:49 AM EDT 0 recs
Great stuff!
I’d say there is more of a top 5 than a top 3 as far as hitters though right? Alvarez, Poesy, Smoak, Beckham and Beckham. I also doubt that Hosmer or Alonso will be there either. A few opinions that I am willing to be debated on but feel pretty strong about….
i do NOT think Hicks is necessarily a big league hitter and would have a problem taking him over Wallace I think.
I also really, really like Ethan Martin and as a 3b too. He is rising as a pitching prospect but he just LOOKS like a big leaguer and has awesome power potential. If I took a HS guy #1 I think he might be my guy unless i see something I REALLY like in a pitcher.
Haven’t seen a lot of Cooper oddly and would be curious as to what kind of big leaguer you think he projects to… or what anybody else out there thinks. I’ll check him out.
For some reason Raben and Davis, to a lesser extent, leave me cold and I have a hard time seeeing either as one of the top 20 players in the draft but I’m willing to be convinced i guess.
I agree with you on Friedrich. He’d be considered strongly if he was there at 20. Don’t know much about Meyer except he is very tall so I’ll need to check him out further.
Good scouting report on david phelps and he will go on the bord for perhaps the #4 choice. Lets keep adding to that list ok?
Homework: Check out Ethan Martin and let me know what you think of him. I’ll try to find Carlos Gomez’s clip of huim batting in a showcase on BBThinkfactory.
by casejud on
May 13, 2008 12:51 PM EDT
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Ethan Martin
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/scouting-the-braves-the-east-cobb-braves/
Swinging the bat. what a powerful swing eh?!
by casejud on May 13, 2008 12:55 PM EDT 0 recs
I havent seen Cooper
myself, but a lefty 1B is a huge need, and I know you dont draft for need but…he may still be a solid pick. I am not sure how much of an overdraft he would be at 20. If he is 24 on the board maybe you reach, if he is 44, then you dont. As for Davis, I saw him in the same Alaska League I saw Phelps in and I was impressed with his swing. He seemed to have good power, but it was hard to judge power in that league because there were so few home runs. I think Beau Mills had more homeruns by himself (7) than any other team in the league. As for Martin I like him, though I have 2 reservations. 1 as a right handed slugger in Safeco, he either needs to have that type of rare power that wont be affected by the Safe , or be good enough with the glove that it doesnt matter if the home park saps some power a la Beltre. You have to really believe in the power, which I admit looks pretty special. The other thing is you keep hearing that he is going to go as a pitcher, and while he still holds good value as a pitcher, I am wary of high school arms in the 1st round.
As for Hicks, I hear you. The toolsy HS outfielder usually takes a while to develop, and he doesnt seem to be in the Maybin, Bruce class from a few years ago. And the Mariners have their share of Toolsy outfield projects in Halman, Peguero, Almonte etc
As an overall draft strategy I think the M’s are really light in the pitching department in their system beyond Aumont and Ramirez, They probably go heavy on that the first 10 rounds. The absolutely need a 1B in the system with potential. It is barren for prospects. And beyond Triunfel it is pretty light up the middle, and even he may end up in 3B or RF. If it was me, in a perfect world I go with a 1B, 3 SP, and a SS/2B with the first 5 picks, of course that is subject to change with how the board falls
by VanillaGorilla on May 13, 2008 1:17 PM EDT 0 recs
Response
Just a couple of quick thoughts for the moment.
Agreed on the Martin love, but I actually prefer him as a pitcher. Great build for a pitcher, athletic, light workload, very good velocity that stands a solid chance of improving with more repetition, the makings of multiple pitches that rate at least above-average. He makes for a nice hitter but I’m mildly concerned about his ability to make contact – it’s not a glaring hole, but I think his upside as a pitcher is too high to make that gamble.
Personally, though, I’m skeptical that he’s going to get to No. 20 on here. Minorleagueball.com drafts tend to be dominated by sabermetric philosophy, but the prepsters who tend to go early are the athletic guys who are already showing plus something. I’m fairly certain that the vast majority of mock drafters here prefer Martin to Meyer and Kelly, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a majority prefer him to Melville and Hicks (as a pitcher or OF). If Melville is on the board at 20 do you roll with him?
Weeks is an intriguing pick here if he falls this far. He’s a gap power guy who shouldn’t be adversely affected by Safeco.
by mrkupe on May 13, 2008 1:18 PM EDT 0 recs
Good point
But I will say Martin hasn’t been among the first few mentioned among HS players whenever I here about these things generally. I certainly like him though. I think an interseting point about him as a prospect is that he could go either way as a prospect. I was so impressed with his McGwire-like power swing that i find it hard to believe he is considered better as a pitching prospect but, either way, it kinda sounds like he may not last ‘til 20. The fact that he has 2 potential routes to the majors makes me want to take him if he is there at 20 though.
Melville is a destinct possibility at 20 but any reason he’d be there particularily? I heard of him as a top 5-10 guy earlier this season.
Weeks huh? I’ve seen Miami play about twice as much as anybody in the NCAA this season and, as you know, i am really really high on Yonder Alonso…i think he’ll be a superstar… Weeks is the epitome of a safe pick. I have a hard time seeing him as the 20th most talented player in the country as a player however. He kinda reminds me of a 2b Jaun Pierre, which isnt great but…hey
Question for you? Do you like Brett Wallace and/ or David Cooper as fairly sure things as big league hitters? Every time i see Wallace with that short stroke i am more and more convinced he’s going to be a special big league hitter. I haven’t seen enough of Cooper but I hear good things about his appraoch, swing and power.
Also, any other HS position players worth considering here? Harold Martinez? Xavier Avery?
by casejud on
May 13, 2008 1:38 PM EDT
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Response
Melville hasn’t had a great spring. He’s essentially the same prospect he was last year, which sounds okay until you realize that a significant part of his value is derived from projection. He’s struggled a little with his command in the crap weather. His repertoire is a little lacking – he shows one good pitch (curve), one solid pitch (fastball), and an eh change. He still makes for an interesting prospect but I can’t shake the feeling that he’s going to be second-best to a lot of people on their boards.
Lightning round answers: yes on Wallace, same boat as you on Cooper. Is Wallace special? Not sure (almost always a little hard to say with college 1B), but I think there’s enough there to make him a solid addition to a system and then a major league team.
I could see Martinez dropping significantly from this spot IRL with all the late negative buzz, but he might get some talk towards the later half of the minorleagueball.com first round as he’s a name that people have heard a lot about here. Personally I’m not quite sure what the big deal is – he looks an awful lot like Matt Dominguez to me (good glove, power bat, swing all over the place, crashing late), and Dominguez still went 13 last year. Might be a bit too much of a project at 20 but intriguing.
by mrkupe on
May 13, 2008 2:07 PM EDT
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BTW
I work at Safeco Field and am at every game and i am of the opinion that the players that are effected MOST by Safeco are gap hitters myself. The safe killed Mike Cameron’s stats while he was here and he isnt a gap hitter but he DID hit a lot of balls to left-center and the ball just goes to die there. NOBODY’s numbers were more effected by The Safe than Jeremy Reed’s though and he hit everything to left-center or right-center and just didnt hit with enough juice to get it to the wall. Hasn’t hurt Ichiro much though but he hits the ball line to line not gap to gap, there’s a difference.
So, for purposes of being the fantasy GM of the Mariners, Weeks doesn’t intrige me that much though I do think he’s a big leaguer.
by casejud on
May 13, 2008 1:45 PM EDT
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Results
1-Tanner Scheppers-RHP-Fresno St.-the top hitters were gone and he was the best talent available.
2-Chase Davidson-1B-HS (Georgia) Best power hitter available IMO and I have seen him have light tower power
3-Logan Forsythe-3B-Arkansas-Living in TN I have seen him and he is athletic enough to play 2B IMO-great baseball player with skills
4-David Duncan-LHP-Georgia Tech-Could be #3 or 4 starter innings eater-good stuff and pitched in strong conference
5-Anthony Capra-LHP-Wichita St.-Have not seen him but they put out good pitchers and was going mostly off of Baseball Americas report
by buccoben on May 31, 2008 6:04 PM EDT 0 recs



