We are now accepting applications to be my deputy scouting director. Your opinion matters – let’s have it!

Parrot11 – would you like to be ASD – aka deputy?

1 Pedro Alvarez 3b Vanderbilt
2 Tim Beckham ss Griffin (Ga.) HS
3 Brian Matusz lhp San Diego
4 Buster Posey c Florida State
5 Aaron Crow rhp Missouri
6 Eric Hosmer 1b American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.
7 Justin Smoak 1b South Carolina
8 Gordon Beckham ss Georgia
9 Tanner Scheppers rhp Fresno State
10 Shooter Hunt rhp Tulane
11 Kyle Skipworth c Patriot HS, Riverside, Calif.
12 Yonder Alonso 1b Miami
13 Tim Melville rhp Holt HS, Wentzville, Mo.
14 Aaron Hicks rhp/of Wilson HS, Long Beach
15 Christian Friedrich lhp Eastern Kentucky
16 Ethan Martin rhp/3b Stephens County HS, Toccoa, Ga.
17 Joshua Fields rhp Georgia
18 Gerrit Cole rhp Lutheran HS, Orange, Calif.
19 Alex Meyer rhp Greensburg (Ind.) HS
20 Casey Kelly ss/rhp Sarasota (Fla.) HS
21 Brett Wallace 1b/3b Arizona State
22 Conor Gillaspie 3b Wichita State
23 Jemile Weeks 2b Miami
24 Andrew Cashner rhp Texas Christian
25 Ryan Perry rhp Arizona
26 Reese Havens ss South Carolina
27 Jason Castro c Stanford
28 Brett DeVall lhp Niceville (Fla.) HS
29 Daniel Webb rhp Heath HS, West Paducah, Ky.
30 Ike Davis 1b/of Arizona State

At this point, I have to almost assume that all of the top 9 will be off the board by the time the Jays get to pick. The two guys I’m really interested in are Aaron Hicks and Ethan Martin. In both cases, I am thinking of them as pitchers, but I do need to look into Hicks a bit more, as my first introduction to him was as an OF. Especially with his size.
Another thing to consider – what if one of the higher ranked guys falls to 15? What if Skipworth is out there? Alonso?

Bah, I had a post written out already but I lost it. The Jays select 17th, not 15th. That probably doesn’t have a large impact on your thinking but just to be accurate.

I like both Hicks and Martin, but neither has much polish at this point. The two most important things in my opinion when it comes to pitchers are FB quality and FB command. Both Hicks and Martin are said to have good FBs, but I’ve heard conflicting reports on Martin’s command and nobody has said much positive about Hicks’ command. I think it’s possible to do better with a first round selection than either of those players, though they certainly are high ceiling guys.

My preference would be Brett Wallace with the 17th pick. I think he’ll hit for average, take walks, and hit for pretty good power as a pro. He’s also somewhat polished and is a LHB, which is a need for the Jays. The comparison that I threw out for him is a LH-only poor man’s version of Lance Berkman.

With regards to getting some high ceiling arms. I think that’s possible outside of the first round. While they may not presently throw mid 90s (though some of them can have reached those speeds) there are a number of other guys with promise that could be selected outside of the first round. A number of which have present command and project to have good command in the future. I think the value of these guys outside the first is better than grabbing Hicks or Martin in the first and then settling for a guy like Dykstra as a big bat in the second (though I doubt he even lasts that long).

For a look on some of my draft commentary, including some PG reports on a number of intriguing HS arms that likely won’t be selected in the first round, check out the scout.com Blue Jays forum and particularly this thread

“http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=325#s=325&f=2039&t=2444703&p=1”

Here are just the HS names from that post:
Bobby Bundy (really like this kid)
Trey Haley (really like this kid)
Gregory Conver (teammate of Eric Hosmer, not so high on)
Grayson Garvin
Brad Hand
Greg Larson (really like him)
Nick Maronde
Jake Odorizzi (like him quite a bit too)
Michael Palazzone
Robbie Ross
Tyler Sample (really like him, already had TJ as a HS sophomore)
Scott Silverstein (I think he’s injured now, otherwise very strong prospect)
Kyle Stroup (Huge guy who if his body stays alright could be very good, like him)
Stosh Wawrzarek (Canadian)
Austin Wright

GoJays7 – thanks for catching that position slip. Not sure why I thought the Jays were up 15th. But you’re right – it doesn’t change my thinking so much. I still think we take the best available player.
I have faith in the Jays minor league coaching staff thatthey can provide the polish necessary – see Marcum, Litsch, McGowan (although he had the super tools to begin with).
One thing that intrigues me more with Martin is what I understand of his athleticism. He has a good pitcher’s frame and the background of 3B to back up the athleticism requisite. I will check out your post – I have some catching up to do on the 2nd tier of high school talent.
As parrot11 can’t would you be interested in being the deputy scouting director?

My main concern with a guy like Wallace is that his bat, while a plus, isn’t a plus-plus that I’d want in a 1B. Furthermore, I see Snider eventually moving over to 1B.

Now I definitely don’t pick for need, but if I were to seriously consider Wallace, how does his upside compare to someone like Adam Lind’s? Yohermyn Chavez?
Gut says his floor is considerably higher than Chavez’s, but I really don’t know that his ceiling differs much from Lind.
Please convince me.

It depends what you consider to be plus-plus. Wallace’s upside is not that different from Lind, though Lind is probably a guy who’s upside is .300+ with 25 HRs, whereas if everything breaks right for Wallace he’ll be .300+ with 30-35 HRs (though it’s possible there’ll be more) and unlike Lind he should walk more, possibly enough to put up a line of .300+/.400+/.500+. Honestly, he’ll probably never be Pujols, ARod, Miguel Cabrera or whoever you want to throw out as a plus-plus bat but I think he’ll be better than Lind.

In terms of Chavez’s upside it’s tough to get a tremendous read on Chavez at this point, but I doubt Chavez is much higher if at all because I really do think Wallace will mash. As for floor, I think there’s no doubt that he’s currently a better player than Chavez and should progress some from where he is so I agree with your statement that it’s considerably higher than Chavez’s floor.

I don’t consider the positional things to be a concern. I don’t know if Snider is a 1B immediately, I think he’s got a good chance to stick in the OF but even if he is you still have DH to stick Wallace at so there’ll be a spot for him. Also, you can always start Wallace out a third in the minors and see if there’s any way he can stick there (though I wouldn’t as I’d just let him go to first and worry about mashing).

As for Martin and Hicks, it seems obvious that both have plenty of athleticism but while it’s good for a pitcher to have athleticism and often helps with mechanics and avoiding injury, I don’t consider it a huge requisite to begin with (more of an additional bonus if the guy I’m interested in has it to boot). As an example of why it’s not necessary to go after Hicks or Martin, Anthony Gose and Hicks were profiled in an article for the draft on MLB’s draft page yesterday. Both want to be position players but both seem to have more promise on the mound. Hicks is considered a first rounder while Gose is not (not sure how far down, but probably in the first two or three rounds). However, Gose might have just as much upside on the mound as the article mentions that Gose sits 94-96 and has hit 97 (though these numbers sound inflated to me) and that Hicks also sits in the mid-nineties. If you want to draft a pitcher with similar upside to Hicks, Gose could be that guy and you wouldn’t have to draft him in the first round (and that “2nd tier” of pitchers includes many guys with somewhat similar upside). There are very few guys of Wallace’s profile that could be available outside of the first round (WF’s Allan Dykstra is the one college 1B with power that gets mention with the bumper crop that isn’t currently in BA’s top 30, but I don’t think he’s anywhere near as good as Wallace).

GoJays7 – you certainly are impassioned over Wallace.
I can see the point in taking him depending on how the first 16 picks play out.
Over the next few days I will examine what the top 16 are leaning to see what it looks like we’ll have as our options.
We may be surprised by someone dropping. Once we do that bit of advance scouting, we can narrow down what we’re looking at and create a small pool of players to debate in depth.
Once we’re comfortable with our 1st round direction, we can start ranking the next tier of likely availables and decide on a direction for the other four rounds.

Finally, will you be my deputy?

Well, for me it’s definitely Wallace over Martin and Hicks, but there are a number of guys I like better than Wallace, I just don’t have any expectations that they’ll be available in that spot.

I’m a big fan of college RHPsTanner Scheppers and Shooter Hunt (though not as much as Scheppers). Both of them have plenty of velocity and have shown the ability to get Ks in college, but command is an issue with both of them. If Smoak, Alonso, or Hosmer drop I think they’d be very good picks as well. Another guy that I don’t think will drop but I really like is Kyle Skipworth, a HS catcher from California. He has big-time power but questions about his ability to make consistent contact and whether he’s a catcher long-term. All told, I still think he’s the best HS catching prospect since Joe Mauer.

So we’re a team?
I am in agreement of all of the above. While I’m not expecting any of the above to drop, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Alonso, Skipworth or Hunt to be available for us.

Yeah, I’m in.

I would be pretty surprised if one of those three were available, but I guess we’ll have to wait and see. Right now it seems that nobody is rocketing up the draft charts to the spot where they’d warrant a top 20 draft selection so I don’t know if those three guys who are considered top 10 or so talents in the draft could possibly drop to 17.

First time poster but am a passionate Jays fan. I’m all for picking Wallace, the HS crop seems lack luster this year with similar players available in later rounds.
However if another of the 1B drop such as Hosmer, Smoak, or Alonso I say pick one of them over Wallace, in that order.
I’m also a fan of Sheppers but doubt he’ll be around.
Also quick question, do expected bonuses have an affect on who we pick based on organizational philosophy.

Mr. Sickels himself writes, “Eric Thames, OF, Pepperdine: Hitting .387/.503/.781, 10 steals in 11 attempts, 13 homers, 31 walks, OPS about +60 percent. Rising up draft boards, Thames has always had tools but has taken a huge step forward in skills this year, with dramatic improvements in all categories compared to last year. His relative rate of production ranks with the elite guys and I don’t see any reason at all not to rank him highly.”
Bryan Smith at Baseball Prospectus also speaks very highly of him. I’m not sure this is legit, but here’s a small excert from April 25, “we’re looking at a fabulous athlete that seems to have made a conscious adjustment to his plate approach. The result is a batting line of .414/.525/.829, and interest in the bottom of the first round”.
Pepperdine is also known as having a much more extreme pitchers park than ASU.

Has anyone here given any thought to Thames? How does he compare – upside/downside – against Wallace?
We seem to be taking for granted that Wallace will even be available at pick 17. Some of the teams picking ahead of us are also considering Wallace as an option. Thames has yet to be profiled by Mayo at minorleaguebaseball.com and may be a bit under the radar right now, but I think he deserves a close look at 17.
Thoughts?

What are the chances he’s available for our second round pick?

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=251
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=martin
Two glowing reports of Ethan Martin. Something to consider – with this much success with so little previous pitching experience, does that tell us more than it is unsustainable, or that his ceiling may be even higher. I’d like to get more updated info than Mayo’s early season report.
Any links to share on that end?

I liked Martin a lot when I had read just those too but I remember reading (though I couldn’t pull it up right now) that Keith Law was critical of his feel and command at this point (along with Hicks). That said, I do like Martin and if Wallace were already selected I would not mind him. It might sound as though I’m conservative but I’m actually all about HS pitching and last year desperately wanted Blake Beavan with the Jays first pick. I also liked Alderson, Withrow (before anybody considered him a first rounder) and a bevy of others. I don’t know that Martin lasts to 17 either, as he might even be the first HS pitcher off the board (though it will probably be Cole and maybe Melville).

As for Wallace not being there. I was going to mention something along similar lines. After checking out a lot of MOD posts it seems that quite a few are interested in Wallace, though maybe not as their primary guy. If he’s not there I’m not so enamoured with Ike Davis and David Cooper as I like Wallace. Thames is an interesting guy but I haven’t read enough on him other than Sickels write-up and the love he got over at BP from Bryan Smith. I’d have to wait and see where he places on the BA and PG lists and what they have to say about him before really chiming in. Overall, 17 probably looks a little too high for him.

I haven’t heard any talk about him yet for the Jays.
Is this because no one believes he will be around at 17 or is it because no one believes he’s worth the pick.
I’ve heard mixed reports on him.
Some say his FB sits between 88-92 (I believe that was recorded during Cape Cod appearances as a reliever) while I’ve heard others say he is more in the 86-88 range while he starts.
I’ve also heard he pitches from his excellent curve far too often and has difficulty locating the FB.
I believe he could be worth the pick but would rather use it on one of the better hitting 1B
I remember Laporta last year being ranked 25th in the first round and look at him now, raking in AA.

I hadn’t been past Project Prospect in a while but they’ve got an interesting college hitter study there. It’s all stats based so will have to be taken with multiple grains of salt (as college stats are not necessarily a tremendous predictor of pro success, though they should give a good general idea). Based on those numbers he has Wallace behind Ike Davis (1B, teammate at ASU) and David Cooper (1B, California). I don’t agree but it’s some food for thought.

In the forums there is also mention of Melville and Odorizzi heating up. Apparently Odorizzi has thrown 57 scoreless innings this year and in his most recent start had a line of 7IP 3H 0R 1BB 14K.

Also, PG has a free top 50 list (HS & College) out now, link: http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/draft/2008/top_prospects/top50_51208.aspx

Some players we’ve mentioned are ranked as such:
15. Hicks
16. Wallace
19. Martin
20. Kelly
22. Odorizzi
23. Davis
24. Cooper
26. Unknown to me HS pitcher Ross Seaton from Texas, said to have consistent plus stuff and is lefty
27. Lawrie
33. Collier

My preference would be Odorizzi, Martin, and then Hicks (he probably wouldn’t even be third). The big three from the beginning of the year, Melville, Cole, and Meyers, are nowhere to be found in this top 50 update. Of course, BA currently disagrees so it’ll be interesting to see how things go as we get closer to draft time.

Word is that he really wants to be a field player and even Mr. Sickels is looking at him as such. While he does have very intriguing tools, we just drafted Justin Jackson last year and I can’t see that unfocused direction taking precedence here and now.
I recently wrote Jonathan Mayo about Thames and he responded that while Thames certainly has a lot of helium right now, #17 would be too much of a stretch, going as he did from 0 HR to 17 in one season. He indicated that Thames shouldn’t be taken above the supplemental round.
I’m not too interested in Ike Davis at pick 17. Or David Cooper. Kelly has helium and very real signability concerns. Do we like Odorizzi enough for pick 17?

I’m pretty much with you on everything there. PG also made mention of his 0 HRs last year. Quite an interesting turn of events I would say. I actually read from a guy that seems to talk to scouts that the Jays were looking at Odorizzi at 17 in real life (there’s a link to it somewhere on the scout.com message boards, it was over at the very good stltoday.com cards talk message board). If Wallace is gone at 17 then Odorizzi might be my preference. He’s said to have four pitches that will be average or better in the future and last time I saw his full season stats he had 4 BB in something like 46 IP (command is looking real). Still, there is a lot of time left until the draft so we’ll have to see what direction things shape up in.

Any idea when this is coming out?
I would love to do an in-depth comparison of Martin and Odorizzi.
On the weekend, I will also look through teams 1-16 to get a feel for what they’ll be thinking.

I will purchase the BA Draft Guide, but I nly subscribe to BP, so I don’t have access to Keith Law’s tidbits. For those of you who do read him, please feel free to throw in his two cents when a different perspective is required.

Parrot11 – Hicks has tools, but how raw? Carlos Gomez style?
I think we can almost agree that we want the best player available, but how do we, as an organization define that?

If we think of the way we, as an organization, control the player’s rights, we get 4 years to get him on the 40 if he’s a college player and 5 years for high schoolers. So the way I see it, is who will be the best player in 4-5 years?
With pitchers, I have great faith in our minor league coaches that we can turn potential into performance at the MLB level, injuries notwithstanding. We can turn control into command. (See the current ML starting rotation) No control is a bit harder, but still attainable. (Purcey’s improvement).

We don’t have the same track record with hitters. Can we teach patience? Power? Contact ability? Snider’s development may give us a better understanding of our abilities there.
Things to consider. Thoughts, anyone?

I think you’re looking at this the wrong way and crediting the Jays coaching/developmental staff with too much of the credit for how players have developed. That Jays have spent many of their best picks on control pitchers and so it’s not surprising that guys like Janssen and Marcum have arrived as control pitchers at the ML level. The Jays have not invested many high picks in premium bats (well, lots last year but it’s too early to tell on those). The only one was really Snider and Lind has developed surprisingly well I think. If the Jays organization were able to turn pitching potential flawlessly into performance at the MLB level then what is going on with Ricky Romero? Organizations do help their players improve, but most of it is on the players on how they work to improve and the abilities they’ve been born with.

There is very little an organization can do to teach contact or power. They can adjust your swing mechanics but most of those skills are due to natural abilities and getting in the weight room. They can improve patience but only if the player is receptive to the idea of taking more pitches and is properly able to distinguish balls from strikes while at the dish. As for pitchers, pitching coaches can improve mechanics which can improve control, velocity, and pitch quality some but again, most of it is on the player.

I doubt very much that there is too significant of a difference between the teachings of any one organization versus another, it’s more about the players selected. In that regard, I think the Jays organization clearly has a better idea of what they’re looking for in pitchers to find successful guys than in hitters. The one thing that I think is specific to each organization in terms of player development is how they advance guys (fast, moderately, slowly) and how that impacts different players. I don’t think that should dictate how we identify players for this mock draft, just select the guys we like the best based on who’s available at each of our picks.

As to the 4-5 year thing, I slightly disagree. The Jays will have 3 options (possibly more if there’s a special case) after they’re put on the 40-man where they can send them back to the minors. With a ML roster of 25 there are 15 spots for ML guys and not all of those guys need to be MLB ready while on the 40-man. Also, if you want to get into a year thing, you want to consider who’ll be the best over the course of the controlled years at the ML level. All-in-all, I think this sort of approach is a little too complicated and we should just select the best player available, as more likely than not any HS player who is going to do anything is going to be in the majors withing 7(college) or 8(HS) years.

It’s definitely preferred that players are up as soon as possible, and 4-5 years is fair timetable for first round picks for sure, but I was just making the point that the calibre of player a guy is 4-5 years into his pro career is probably not as important as he is at 7-8 and after.

I’ve read today he’s been diagnosed with a stress fracture in his shoulder and wont pitch for six weeks, is it possible he can drop to 17? If so, would he be worth a look?

I’ve been reading the MOD’s of the top 16 teams and here is my best guess for how they’ll go – each pick is based on being right the times previously.
1. Tampa Bay – Tim Beckham
2. Pittsburgh – Pedro Alvarez
3. Kansas City – Justin Smoak
4. Baltimore – Brian Matusz (will go with one of the three above if they fall)
5. San Francisco – Eric Hosmer
6. Florida – Aaron Crow
7. Cincinnati – Gordon Beckham
8. Chicago (AL) – Buster Posey
9. Washington – Ethan Martin (no MOD – the SD first vote while participating in the community mocks)
10. Houston – Shooter Hunt
11. Texas – Tanner Scheppers
12. Oakland – Yonder Alonso
13. St. Louis – Tim Melville
14. Minnesota – Brett Wallace
15. Los Angeles (NL) – Aaron Hicks (the only guy being discussed seriously on their MOD still on the board)
16. Milwaukee – Kyle Skipworth

If this holds true – what direction do we take? BTW, GoJays7, Wallace doesn’t get past LAD in this mock.

Kudos to Carroll for writing back so quickly
“It’s bad. Don’t know what bone he broke. Scap breaks aren’t terrible (Washburn comes to mind), but something up near the fossa would be.”

Word from the wise, to the wise

Nice coverage man, you’re all over this. That’s depressing to hear from Carroll, hopefully it’s the best case scenario but I’d have to say there’s a good chance Scheppers is no longer in the running to go in the first round (I probably wouldn’t take him). Damn college coaches.

If things went down that way I might be really tempted to go out and reach for Odorizzi (though it may not even be considered such a reach soon). I don’t like Friedrich at all and don’t like the idea of drafting a reliever in the first round. Thames is interesting but not enough for me at 17. Kelly wants to be a SS and has a lot of questions around him, as a SS he’s not a first round guy so I wouldn’t buy there. Ike Davis (and Cooper to a lesser extent) have grown on me but my preference would be to go for the HR. So it would probably come down to Odorizzi and Cole for me and with some semblance of realism I’d probably avoid the Boras client with mechanical issues and go for the less heralded guy. I could probably be convinced to go the other route, as Cole is said to be a strike-thrower and we all know about his FB velocity (though I have read some comments questioning his FB movement).

I’d take him if it went down to that list

If I am right about the first 16, I would have to be considering one of the two above.
GoJays7 – why a you not a fan of Friedrich – what do you know that baseball america doesn’t?

I have no interest in releivers (although the Jays do like turning them into starters), Gerrit Cole doesn’t excite me at all, Thames/Davis/Cooper would be better between picks 27-37, and Kelly I’m not sure about.

This is getting harder to manouver through the posts.
We can move this to my blog at some point – www.ofsticksandbats.blogspot.com.

He has been advertised as a polished lefty that’ll move quickly and I don’t think that’s the case. Depending on when you’ve seen him he either has below average or average to above average velocity and never has FB command, that doesn’t fit the mold of pitcher I’m interested. Yes, his CU is very good but it’s difficult to pitch off your CU at the higher levels. Also, with anything Friedrich does there are competition questions. I am hopeful that one of the other teams will take him (especially with Scheppers going down) and at least in real life it seems to be a lock that he’ll go before 17.

I think we are ready to create a 20 man wishlist.
What I suggest we all do is take the 16 names I project to be taken as the top 16 picks and add 4 others of our own choice (although I do recommend that two of the others be Friendrich and Odorizzi). We rank those 20, conglomerate them and come up with an organization ranking.
After we complete that, we can use expanded resources (the BA draft issue, etc.) to compile deeper positional lists.
Agreed?

I’ll be gone till tuesday but will post my thoughts after the weekend.

I’ll include Friedrich ‘cause you guys want him but I don’t think he’d be in my top 20. Just made this now but it’s probably pretty accurate on my thoughts. While it won’t figure into the Jays pick, I was always concerned about Alvarez’s K rate (20% I think last year, which is a lot in college) and the hamate injury is a serious concern. Meanwhile, Smoak plays in one of the tougher hitters parks in college and has performed very well. I wouldn’t pick Cole because of the reasons I’ve mentioned, but on talent I think he’s slightly ahead of Melville (based on the way Melville has performed this year, though if he can get back to where he was last year Melville is the top HS pitcher) and ahead of Martin by a wider amount. Scheppers would move up to 5th or 6th if he were healthy, I’ve really like him all year but the injury is a huge red flag (and he wouldn’t be in my top 20 if I didn’t have to put him in there). To be honest, Scheppers, Hicks, and Friedrich all wouldn’t be in my top 20 at this point probably but up to 17 is all that really matters anyway.

1. Brian Matusz
2. Tim Beckham
3. Justin Smoak
4. Aaron Crow
5. Pedro Alvarez
6. Eric Hosmer
7. Buster Posey
8. Gordon Beckham
9. Yonder Alonso
10. Kyle Skipworth
11. Shooter Hunt
12. Brett Wallace
13. Jake Odorizzi
14. Gerrit Cole
15. Tim Melville
16. Ethan Martin
17. Ike Davis
18. Tanner Scheppers
19. Aaron Hicks
20.Christian Friedrich

OfStickandBats, you should come join the discussion on the draft at scout.com. I think it’s the best Blue Jays related draft discussion on the net (with bluejayway and battersbox also being good). No offense to your blog, but it doesn’t seem that there’s too much activity there and since not too many people seem to be visiting this site I don’t expect it would be much more than you and me conversing there. If we go over to scout.com I think some other knowledgeable people will contribute their thoughts on the draft, even if it doesn’t specifically pertain to this mock draft.

You’re right about that.
It’s pretty new, and I would love to drum up activity.
But I’ll try to be more proactive on the scout.com element.
Thanks for the list.

I asked Sickels about Sheppers on Down on the farm Friday’s on XM and he said depending on the injuries severity he could see him drop to the later part of the draft or even the supplemental round.

Some potential second rounders to consider – assumption – we take a pitcher first and want a big bat next
Kyle Long
Chris Dominguez
Roger Kieschnick

There was another guy who I read about, but didn’t take note and I can’t find it. Other names to consider?

A Nationals MOD is finally up and the early consensus seems to be Skipworth. I will have to revisit the Brewers board to see what I think they would do without Skipworth available, also the other few picks – might one of them snatch Martin? I’ll revisit it shortly and post my revised results.

1. Tampa Bay – Tim Beckham
2. Pittsburgh – Pedro Alvarez
3. Kansas City – Justin Smoak
4. Baltimore – Brian Matusz (will go with one of the three above if they fall)
5. San Francisco – Eric Hosmer
6. Florida – Aaron Crow
7. Cincinnati – Gordon Beckham
8. Chicago (AL) – Buster Posey
9. Washington – Kyle Skipworth
10. Houston – Shooter Hunt
11. Texas – Tanner Scheppers
12. Oakland – Yonder Alonso
13. St. Louis – Tim Melville
14. Minnesota – Brett Wallace
15. Los Angeles (NL) – Jake Odorizzi
16. Milwaukee – Christian Friedrich

I would be ecstatic if the draft fell this way – of the ones lised above, I am least sure of the direction Texas, Oakland LAD and Mil are going

1 Brian Matusz
2 Tim Beckham
3 Pedro Alvarez
4 Justin Smoak
5 Buster Posey
6 Aaron Crow
7 Gordon Beckham
8 Eric Hosmer
9 Ethan Martin
10 Brett Wallace
11 Kyle Skipworth
12 Shooter Hunt
13 Jake Odorizzi
14 Yonder Alonso
15 Tim Melville
16 Tanner Scheppers
17 Ike Davis
18 Aaron Hicks
19 Christian Friedrich
20 Gerrit Cole

1 Pedro Alvarez
2 Justin Smoak
3 Brian Matusz
4 Tim Beckham
5 Buster Posey
6 Eric Hosmer
7 Gordon Beckham
8 Aaron Crow
9 Ethan Martin
10 Yonder Alonso
11 Kyle Skipworth
12 Shooter Hunt
13 Jake Odorizzi
14 Brett Wallace
15 Tim Melville
16 Tanner Scheppers
17 Christian Friedrich
18 Aaron Hicks
19 Ike Davis
20 Galloway

1 Pedro Alvarez
2 Brian Matusz
3 Tim Beckham
4 Justin Smoak
5 Eric Hosmer
6 Buster Posey
7 Aaron Crow
8 Gordon Beckham
9 Yonder Alonso
10 Kyle Skipworth
11 Shooter Hunt
12 Brett Wallace
13 Zach Collier
14 Jake Odirizzi
15 Tanner Scheppers
16 Brett Lawrie
17 Ethan Martin
18 Aaron Hicks
19 Ike Davis
20 Christian Friedrich
—-—-—-—-—-—-—--

Made really quickly off the top of my head. Main thing I want to highlight is the rise of Collier and Lawrie.

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/columnists/davidrawnsley/2008/draft/pg_predraft_showcase_review.aspx
Interesting list of not especially heralded players. That last guy, Frost, sounds very appealing.

I would replace Galloway with Lawrie in my list but would not put Collier in my top 20.

Lawrie could be 18 and 19 for me after Ike Davis, pushing Aaron Hicks and Friedrich out of my top 20 (Scheppers can move out too, since he really doesn’t look like a first round guy anymore).

Stosh Wawrzasek is guy I’ve mentioned before over at scout.com. I like him and he’s a Canadian to boot. If they fail to grab a HS hurler in rounds 1 or 2 (likely) hopefully they’ll look at Stosh in one of those 3-5 rounds.

As we have four ballots of at least 21 names each, I am now tabulating our results.
Scoring is as follows:
1st place = 30 points.
2nd place= 28
3 = 26
4 = 24
5 = 22
6 = 20
7 = 18
8 = 16
9 = 15
10 = 14
11 = 13
12 = 12
13 = 11
14 = 10
15 = 9
16 = 8
17 = 7
18 = 6
19 = 5
20 = 4
21 = 3

name score
1 Brian Matusz 114
2 Pedro Alvarez 108
3 Tim Beckham 106
4 Justin Smoak 102
5 Buster Posey 82
6 Eric Hosmer 78
7 Aaron Crow 78
8 Gordon Beckham 68
9 Yonder Alonso 54
10 Kyle Skipworth 54
11 Shooter Hunt 50
12 Brett Wallace 48
13 Ethan Martin 44
14 Jake Odorizzi 43
15 Tim Melville 36
16 Tanner Sc