We are now accepting applications to be my deputy scouting director. Your opinion matters – let’s have it!

Parrot11 – would you like to be ASD – aka deputy?

1 Pedro Alvarez 3b Vanderbilt
2 Tim Beckham ss Griffin (Ga.) HS
3 Brian Matusz lhp San Diego
4 Buster Posey c Florida State
5 Aaron Crow rhp Missouri
6 Eric Hosmer 1b American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.
7 Justin Smoak 1b South Carolina
8 Gordon Beckham ss Georgia
9 Tanner Scheppers rhp Fresno State
10 Shooter Hunt rhp Tulane
11 Kyle Skipworth c Patriot HS, Riverside, Calif.
12 Yonder Alonso 1b Miami
13 Tim Melville rhp Holt HS, Wentzville, Mo.
14 Aaron Hicks rhp/of Wilson HS, Long Beach
15 Christian Friedrich lhp Eastern Kentucky
16 Ethan Martin rhp/3b Stephens County HS, Toccoa, Ga.
17 Joshua Fields rhp Georgia
18 Gerrit Cole rhp Lutheran HS, Orange, Calif.
19 Alex Meyer rhp Greensburg (Ind.) HS
20 Casey Kelly ss/rhp Sarasota (Fla.) HS
21 Brett Wallace 1b/3b Arizona State
22 Conor Gillaspie 3b Wichita State
23 Jemile Weeks 2b Miami
24 Andrew Cashner rhp Texas Christian
25 Ryan Perry rhp Arizona
26 Reese Havens ss South Carolina
27 Jason Castro c Stanford
28 Brett DeVall lhp Niceville (Fla.) HS
29 Daniel Webb rhp Heath HS, West Paducah, Ky.
30 Ike Davis 1b/of Arizona State

At this point, I have to almost assume that all of the top 9 will be off the board by the time the Jays get to pick. The two guys I’m really interested in are Aaron Hicks and Ethan Martin. In both cases, I am thinking of them as pitchers, but I do need to look into Hicks a bit more, as my first introduction to him was as an OF. Especially with his size.
Another thing to consider – what if one of the higher ranked guys falls to 15? What if Skipworth is out there? Alonso?

Bah, I had a post written out already but I lost it. The Jays select 17th, not 15th. That probably doesn’t have a large impact on your thinking but just to be accurate.

I like both Hicks and Martin, but neither has much polish at this point. The two most important things in my opinion when it comes to pitchers are FB quality and FB command. Both Hicks and Martin are said to have good FBs, but I’ve heard conflicting reports on Martin’s command and nobody has said much positive about Hicks’ command. I think it’s possible to do better with a first round selection than either of those players, though they certainly are high ceiling guys.

My preference would be Brett Wallace with the 17th pick. I think he’ll hit for average, take walks, and hit for pretty good power as a pro. He’s also somewhat polished and is a LHB, which is a need for the Jays. The comparison that I threw out for him is a LH-only poor man’s version of Lance Berkman.

With regards to getting some high ceiling arms. I think that’s possible outside of the first round. While they may not presently throw mid 90s (though some of them can have reached those speeds) there are a number of other guys with promise that could be selected outside of the first round. A number of which have present command and project to have good command in the future. I think the value of these guys outside the first is better than grabbing Hicks or Martin in the first and then settling for a guy like Dykstra as a big bat in the second (though I doubt he even lasts that long).

For a look on some of my draft commentary, including some PG reports on a number of intriguing HS arms that likely won’t be selected in the first round, check out the scout.com Blue Jays forum and particularly this thread

“http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=325#s=325&f=2039&t=2444703&p=1”

Here are just the HS names from that post:
Bobby Bundy (really like this kid)
Trey Haley (really like this kid)
Gregory Conver (teammate of Eric Hosmer, not so high on)
Grayson Garvin
Brad Hand
Greg Larson (really like him)
Nick Maronde
Jake Odorizzi (like him quite a bit too)
Michael Palazzone
Robbie Ross
Tyler Sample (really like him, already had TJ as a HS sophomore)
Scott Silverstein (I think he’s injured now, otherwise very strong prospect)
Kyle Stroup (Huge guy who if his body stays alright could be very good, like him)
Stosh Wawrzarek (Canadian)
Austin Wright

GoJays7 – thanks for catching that position slip. Not sure why I thought the Jays were up 15th. But you’re right – it doesn’t change my thinking so much. I still think we take the best available player.
I have faith in the Jays minor league coaching staff thatthey can provide the polish necessary – see Marcum, Litsch, McGowan (although he had the super tools to begin with).
One thing that intrigues me more with Martin is what I understand of his athleticism. He has a good pitcher’s frame and the background of 3B to back up the athleticism requisite. I will check out your post – I have some catching up to do on the 2nd tier of high school talent.
As parrot11 can’t would you be interested in being the deputy scouting director?

My main concern with a guy like Wallace is that his bat, while a plus, isn’t a plus-plus that I’d want in a 1B. Furthermore, I see Snider eventually moving over to 1B.

Now I definitely don’t pick for need, but if I were to seriously consider Wallace, how does his upside compare to someone like Adam Lind’s? Yohermyn Chavez?
Gut says his floor is considerably higher than Chavez’s, but I really don’t know that his ceiling differs much from Lind.
Please convince me.

It depends what you consider to be plus-plus. Wallace’s upside is not that different from Lind, though Lind is probably a guy who’s upside is .300+ with 25 HRs, whereas if everything breaks right for Wallace he’ll be .300+ with 30-35 HRs (though it’s possible there’ll be more) and unlike Lind he should walk more, possibly enough to put up a line of .300+/.400+/.500+. Honestly, he’ll probably never be Pujols, ARod, Miguel Cabrera or whoever you want to throw out as a plus-plus bat but I think he’ll be better than Lind.

In terms of Chavez’s upside it’s tough to get a tremendous read on Chavez at this point, but I doubt Chavez is much higher if at all because I really do think Wallace will mash. As for floor, I think there’s no doubt that he’s currently a better player than Chavez and should progress some from where he is so I agree with your statement that it’s considerably higher than Chavez’s floor.

I don’t consider the positional things to be a concern. I don’t know if Snider is a 1B immediately, I think he’s got a good chance to stick in the OF but even if he is you still have DH to stick Wallace at so there’ll be a spot for him. Also, you can always start Wallace out a third in the minors and see if there’s any way he can stick there (though I wouldn’t as I’d just let him go to first and worry about mashing).

As for Martin and Hicks, it seems obvious that both have plenty of athleticism but while it’s good for a pitcher to have athleticism and often helps with mechanics and avoiding injury, I don’t consider it a huge requisite to begin with (more of an additional bonus if the guy I’m interested in has it to boot). As an example of why it’s not necessary to go after Hicks or Martin, Anthony Gose and Hicks were profiled in an article for the draft on MLB’s draft page yesterday. Both want to be position players but both seem to have more promise on the mound. Hicks is considered a first rounder while Gose is not (not sure how far down, but probably in the first two or three rounds). However, Gose might have just as much upside on the mound as the article mentions that Gose sits 94-96 and has hit 97 (though these numbers sound inflated to me) and that Hicks also sits in the mid-nineties. If you want to draft a pitcher with similar upside to Hicks, Gose could be that guy and you wouldn’t have to draft him in the first round (and that “2nd tier” of pitchers includes many guys with somewhat similar upside). There are very few guys of Wallace’s profile that could be available outside of the first round (WF’s Allan Dykstra is the one college 1B with power that gets mention with the bumper crop that isn’t currently in BA’s top 30, but I don’t think he’s anywhere near as good as Wallace).

GoJays7 – you certainly are impassioned over Wallace.
I can see the point in taking him depending on how the first 16 picks play out.
Over the next few days I will examine what the top 16 are leaning to see what it looks like we’ll have as our options.
We may be surprised by someone dropping. Once we do that bit of advance scouting, we can narrow down what we’re looking at and create a small pool of players to debate in depth.
Once we’re comfortable with our 1st round direction, we can start ranking the next tier of likely availables and decide on a direction for the other four rounds.

Finally, will you be my deputy?

Well, for me it’s definitely Wallace over Martin and Hicks, but there are a number of guys I like better than Wallace, I just don’t have any expectations that they’ll be available in that spot.

I’m a big fan of college RHPsTanner Scheppers and Shooter Hunt (though not as much as Scheppers). Both of them have plenty of velocity and have shown the ability to get Ks in college, but command is an issue with both of them. If Smoak, Alonso, or Hosmer drop I think they’d be very good picks as well. Another guy that I don’t think will drop but I really like is Kyle Skipworth, a HS catcher from California. He has big-time power but questions about his ability to make consistent contact and whether he’s a catcher long-term. All told, I still think he’s the best HS catching prospect since Joe Mauer.

So we’re a team?
I am in agreement of all of the above. While I’m not expecting any of the above to drop, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Alonso, Skipworth or Hunt to be available for us.

Yeah, I’m in.

I would be pretty surprised if one of those three were available, but I guess we’ll have to wait and see. Right now it seems that nobody is rocketing up the draft charts to the spot where they’d warrant a top 20 draft selection so I don’t know if those three guys who are considered top 10 or so talents in the draft could possibly drop to 17.

First time poster but am a passionate Jays fan. I’m all for picking Wallace, the HS crop seems lack luster this year with similar players available in later rounds.
However if another of the 1B drop such as Hosmer, Smoak, or Alonso I say pick one of them over Wallace, in that order.
I’m also a fan of Sheppers but doubt he’ll be around.
Also quick question, do expected bonuses have an affect on who we pick based on organizational philosophy.

Mr. Sickels himself writes, “Eric Thames, OF, Pepperdine: Hitting .387/.503/.781, 10 steals in 11 attempts, 13 homers, 31 walks, OPS about +60 percent. Rising up draft boards, Thames has always had tools but has taken a huge step forward in skills this year, with dramatic improvements in all categories compared to last year. His relative rate of production ranks with the elite guys and I don’t see any reason at all not to rank him highly.”
Bryan Smith at Baseball Prospectus also speaks very highly of him. I’m not sure this is legit, but here’s a small excert from April 25, “we’re looking at a fabulous athlete that seems to have made a conscious adjustment to his plate approach. The result is a batting line of .414/.525/.829, and interest in the bottom of the first round”.
Pepperdine is also known as having a much more extreme pitchers park than ASU.

Has anyone here given any thought to Thames? How does he compare – upside/downside – against Wallace?
We seem to be taking for granted that Wallace will even be available at pick 17. Some of the teams picking ahead of us are also considering Wallace as an option. Thames has yet to be profiled by Mayo at minorleaguebaseball.com and may be a bit under the radar right now, but I think he deserves a close look at 17.
Thoughts?

What are the chances he’s available for our second round pick?

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=251
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=martin
Two glowing reports of Ethan Martin. Something to consider – with this much success with so little previous pitching experience, does that tell us more than it is unsustainable, or that his ceiling may be even higher. I’d like to get more updated info than Mayo’s early season report.
Any links to share on that end?

I liked Martin a lot when I had read just those too but I remember reading (though I couldn’t pull it up right now) that Keith Law was critical of his feel and command at this point (along with Hicks). That said, I do like Martin and if Wallace were already selected I would not mind him. It might sound as though I’m conservative but I’m actually all about HS pitching and last year desperately wanted Blake Beavan with the Jays first pick. I also liked Alderson, Withrow (before anybody considered him a first rounder) and a bevy of others. I don’t know that Martin lasts to 17 either, as he might even be the first HS pitcher off the board (though it will probably be Cole and maybe Melville).

As for Wallace not being there. I was going to mention something along similar lines. After checking out a lot of MOD posts it seems that quite a few are interested in Wallace, though maybe not as their primary guy. If he’s not there I’m not so enamoured with Ike Davis and David Cooper as I like Wallace. Thames is an interesting guy but I haven’t read enough on him other than Sickels write-up and the love he got over at BP from Bryan Smith. I’d have to wait and see where he places on the BA and PG lists and what they have to say about him before really chiming in. Overall, 17 probably looks a little too high for him.

I haven’t heard any talk about him yet for the Jays.
Is this because no one believes he will be around at 17 or is it because no one believes he’s worth the pick.
I’ve heard mixed reports on him.
Some say his FB sits between 88-92 (I believe that was recorded during Cape Cod appearances as a reliever) while I’ve heard others say he is more in the 86-88 range while he starts.
I’ve also heard he pitches from his excellent curve far too often and has difficulty locating the FB.
I believe he could be worth the pick but would rather use it on one of the better hitting 1B
I remember Laporta last year being ranked 25th in the first round and look at him now, raking in AA.

I hadn’t been past Project Prospect in a while but they’ve got an interesting college hitter study there. It’s all stats based so will have to be taken with multiple grains of salt (as college stats are not necessarily a tremendous predictor of pro success, though they should give a good general idea). Based on those numbers he has Wallace behind Ike Davis (1B, teammate at ASU) and David Cooper (1B, California). I don’t agree but it’s some food for thought.

In the forums there is also mention of Melville and Odorizzi heating up. Apparently Odorizzi has thrown 57 scoreless innings this year and in his most recent start had a line of 7IP 3H 0R 1BB 14K.

Also, PG has a free top 50 list (HS & College) out now, link: http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/draft/2008/top_prospects/top50_51208.aspx

Some players we’ve mentioned are ranked as such:
15. Hicks
16. Wallace
19. Martin
20. Kelly
22. Odorizzi
23. Davis
24. Cooper
26. Unknown to me HS pitcher Ross Seaton from Texas, said to have consistent plus stuff and is lefty
27. Lawrie
33. Collier

My preference would be Odorizzi, Martin, and then Hicks (he probably wouldn’t even be third). The big three from the beginning of the year, Melville, Cole, and Meyers, are nowhere to be found in this top 50 update. Of course, BA currently disagrees so it’ll be interesting to see how things go as we get closer to draft time.

Word is that he really wants to be a field player and even Mr. Sickels is looking at him as such. While he does have very intriguing tools, we just drafted Justin Jackson last year and I can’t see that unfocused direction taking precedence here and now.
I recently wrote Jonathan Mayo about Thames and he responded that while Thames certainly has a lot of helium right now, #17 would be too much of a stretch, going as he did from 0 HR to 17 in one season. He indicated that Thames shouldn’t be taken above the supplemental round.
I’m not too interested in Ike Davis at pick 17. Or David Cooper. Kelly has helium and very real signability concerns. Do we like Odorizzi enough for pick 17?

I’m pretty much with you on everything there. PG also made mention of his 0 HRs last year. Quite an interesting turn of events I would say. I actually read from a guy that seems to talk to scouts that the Jays were looking at Odorizzi at 17 in real life (there’s a link to it somewhere on the scout.com message boards, it was over at the very good stltoday.com cards talk message board). If Wallace is gone at 17 then Odorizzi might be my preference. He’s said to have four pitches that will be average or better in the future and last time I saw his full season stats he had 4 BB in something like 46 IP (command is looking real). Still, there is a lot of time left until the draft so we’ll have to see what direction things shape up in.

Any idea when this is coming out?
I would love to do an in-depth comparison of Martin and Odorizzi.
On the weekend, I will also look through teams 1-16 to get a feel for what they’ll be thinking.

I will purchase the BA Draft Guide, but I nly subscribe to BP, so I don’t have access to Keith Law’s tidbits. For those of you who do read him, please feel free to throw in his two cents when a different perspective is required.

Parrot11 – Hicks has tools, but how raw? Carlos Gomez style?
I think we can almost agree that we want the best player available, but how do we, as an organization define that?

If we think of the way we, as an organization, control the player’s rights, we get 4 years to get him on the 40 if he’s a college player and 5 years for high schoolers. So the way I see it, is who will be the best player in 4-5 years?
With pitchers, I have great faith in our minor league coaches that we can turn potential into performance at the MLB level, injuries notwithstanding. We can turn control into command. (See the current ML starting rotation) No control is a bit harder, but still attainable. (Purcey’s improvement).

We don’t have the same track record with hitters. Can we teach patience? Power? Contact ability? Snider’s development may give us a better understanding of our abilities there.
Things to consider. Thoughts, anyone?

I think you’re looking at this the wrong way and crediting the Jays coaching/developmental staff with too much of the credit for how players have developed. That Jays have spent many of their best picks on control pitchers and so it’s not surprising that guys like Janssen and Marcum have arrived as control pitchers at the ML level. The Jays have not invested many high picks in premium bats (well, lots last year but it’s too early to tell on those). The only one was really Snider and Lind has developed surprisingly well I think. If the Jays organization were able to turn pitching potential flawlessly into performance at the MLB level then what is going on with Ricky Romero? Organizations do help their players improve, but most of it is on the players on how they work to improve and the abilities they’ve been born with.

There is very little an organization can do to teach contact or power. They can adjust your swing mechanics but most of those skills are due to natural abilities and getting in the weight room. They can improve patience but only if the player is receptive to the idea of taking more pitches and is properly able to distinguish balls from strikes while at the dish. As for pitchers, pitching coaches can improve mechanics which can improve control, velocity, and pitch quality some but again, most of it is on the player.

I doubt very much that there is too significant of a difference between the teachings of any one organization versus another, it’s more about the players selected. In that regard, I think the Jays organization clearly has a better idea of what they’re looking for in pitchers to find successful guys than in hitters. The one thing that I think is specific to each organization in terms of player development is how they advance guys (fast, moderately, slowly) and how that impacts different players. I don’t think that should dictate how we identify players for this mock draft, just select the guys we like the best based on who’s available at each of our picks.

As to the 4-5 year thing, I slightly disagree. The Jays will have 3 options (possibly more if there’s a special case) after they’re put on the 40-man where they can send them back to the minors. With a ML roster of 25 there are 15 spots for ML guys and not all of those guys need to be MLB ready while on the 40-man. Also, if you want to get into a year thing, you want to consider who’ll be the best over the course of the controlled years at the ML level. All-in-all, I think this sort of approach is a little too complicated and we should just select the best player available, as more likely than not any HS player who is going to do anything is going to be in the majors withing 7(college) or 8(HS) years.

It’s definitely preferred that players are up as soon as possible, and 4-5 years is fair timetable for first round picks for sure, but I was just making the point that the calibre of player a guy is 4-5 years into his pro career is probably not as important as he is at 7-8 and after.

I’ve read today he’s been diagnosed with a stress fracture in his shoulder and wont pitch for six weeks, is it possible he can drop to 17? If so, would he be worth a look?

I’ve been reading the MOD’s of the top 16 teams and here is my best guess for how they’ll go – each pick is based on being right the times previously.
1. Tampa Bay – Tim Beckham
2. Pittsburgh – Pedro Alvarez
3. Kansas City – Justin Smoak
4. Baltimore – Brian Matusz (will go with one of the three above if they fall)
5. San Francisco – Eric Hosmer
6. Florida – Aaron Crow
7. Cincinnati – Gordon Beckham
8. Chicago (AL) – Buster Posey
9. Washington – Ethan Martin (no MOD – the SD first vote while participating in the community mocks)
10. Houston – Shooter Hunt
11. Texas – Tanner Scheppers
12. Oakland – Yonder Alonso
13. St. Louis – Tim Melville
14. Minnesota – Brett Wallace
15. Los Angeles (NL) – Aaron Hicks (the only guy being discussed seriously on their MOD still on the board)
16. Milwaukee – Kyle Skipworth

If this holds true – what direction do we take? BTW, GoJays7, Wallace doesn’t get past LAD in this mock.

Kudos to Carroll for writing back so quickly
“It’s bad. Don’t know what bone he broke. Scap breaks aren’t terrible (Washburn comes to mind), but something up near the fossa would be.”

Word from the wise, to the wise

Nice coverage man, you’re all over this. That’s depressing to hear from Carroll, hopefully it’s the best case scenario but I’d have to say there’s a good chance Scheppers is no longer in the running to go in the first round (I probably wouldn’t take him). Damn college coaches.

If things went down that way I might be really tempted to go out and reach for Odorizzi (though it may not even be considered such a reach soon). I don’t like Friedrich at all and don’t like the idea of drafting a reliever in the first round. Thames is interesting but not enough for me at 17. Kelly wants to be a SS and has a lot of questions around him, as a SS he’s not a first round guy so I wouldn’t buy there. Ike Davis (and Cooper to a lesser extent) have grown on me but my preference would be to go for the HR. So it would probably come down to Odorizzi and Cole for me and with some semblance of realism I’d probably avoid the Boras client with mechanical issues and go for the less heralded guy. I could probably be convinced to go the other route, as Cole is said to be a strike-thrower and we all know about his FB velocity (though I have read some comments questioning his FB movement).

I’d take him if it went down to that list

If I am right about the first 16, I would have to be considering one of the two above.
GoJays7 – why a you not a fan of Friedrich – what do you know that baseball america doesn’t?

I have no interest in releivers (although the Jays do like turning them into starters), Gerrit Cole doesn’t excite me at all, Thames/Davis/Cooper would be better between picks 27-37, and Kelly I’m not sure about.

This is getting harder to manouver through the posts.
We can move this to my blog at some point – www.ofsticksandbats.blogspot.com.

He has been advertised as a polished lefty that’ll move quickly and I don’t think that’s the case. Depending on when you’ve seen him he either has below average or average to above average velocity and never has FB command, that doesn’t fit the mold of pitcher I’m interested. Yes, his CU is very good but it’s difficult to pitch off your CU at the higher levels. Also, with anything Friedrich does there are competition questions. I am hopeful that one of the other teams will take him (especially with Scheppers going down) and at least in real life it seems to be a lock that he’ll go before 17.

I think we are ready to create a 20 man wishlist.
What I suggest we all do is take the 16 names I project to be taken as the top 16 picks and add 4 others of our own choice (although I do recommend that two of the others be Friendrich and Odorizzi). We rank those 20, conglomerate them and come up with an organization ranking.
After we complete that, we can use expanded resources (the BA draft issue, etc.) to compile deeper positional lists.
Agreed?

I’ll be gone till tuesday but will post my thoughts after the weekend.

I’ll include Friedrich ‘cause you guys want him but I don’t think he’d be in my top 20. Just made this now but it’s probably pretty accurate on my thoughts. While it won’t figure into the Jays pick, I was always concerned about Alvarez’s K rate (20% I think last year, which is a lot in college) and the hamate injury is a serious concern. Meanwhile, Smoak plays in one of the tougher hitters parks in college and has performed very well. I wouldn’t pick Cole because of the reasons I’ve mentioned, but on talent I think he’s slightly ahead of Melville (based on the way Melville has performed this year, though if he can get back to where he was last year Melville is the top HS pitcher) and ahead of Martin by a wider amount. Scheppers would move up to 5th or 6th if he were healthy, I’ve really like him all year but the injury is a huge red flag (and he wouldn’t be in my top 20 if I didn’t have to put him in there). To be honest, Scheppers, Hicks, and Friedrich all wouldn’t be in my top 20 at this point probably but up to 17 is all that really matters anyway.

1. Brian Matusz
2. Tim Beckham
3. Justin Smoak
4. Aaron Crow
5. Pedro Alvarez
6. Eric Hosmer
7. Buster Posey
8. Gordon Beckham
9. Yonder Alonso
10. Kyle Skipworth
11. Shooter Hunt
12. Brett Wallace
13. Jake Odorizzi
14. Gerrit Cole
15. Tim Melville
16. Ethan Martin
17. Ike Davis
18. Tanner Scheppers
19. Aaron Hicks
20.Christian Friedrich

OfStickandBats, you should come join the discussion on the draft at scout.com. I think it’s the best Blue Jays related draft discussion on the net (with bluejayway and battersbox also being good). No offense to your blog, but it doesn’t seem that there’s too much activity there and since not too many people seem to be visiting this site I don’t expect it would be much more than you and me conversing there. If we go over to scout.com I think some other knowledgeable people will contribute their thoughts on the draft, even if it doesn’t specifically pertain to this mock draft.

You’re right about that.
It’s pretty new, and I would love to drum up activity.
But I’ll try to be more proactive on the scout.com element.
Thanks for the list.

I asked Sickels about Sheppers on Down on the farm Friday’s on XM and he said depending on the injuries severity he could see him drop to the later part of the draft or even the supplemental round.

Some potential second rounders to consider – assumption – we take a pitcher first and want a big bat next
Kyle Long
Chris Dominguez
Roger Kieschnick

There was another guy who I read about, but didn’t take note and I can’t find it. Other names to consider?

A Nationals MOD is finally up and the early consensus seems to be Skipworth. I will have to revisit the Brewers board to see what I think they would do without Skipworth available, also the other few picks – might one of them snatch Martin? I’ll revisit it shortly and post my revised results.

1. Tampa Bay – Tim Beckham
2. Pittsburgh – Pedro Alvarez
3. Kansas City – Justin Smoak
4. Baltimore – Brian Matusz (will go with one of the three above if they fall)
5. San Francisco – Eric Hosmer
6. Florida – Aaron Crow
7. Cincinnati – Gordon Beckham
8. Chicago (AL) – Buster Posey
9. Washington – Kyle Skipworth
10. Houston – Shooter Hunt
11. Texas – Tanner Scheppers
12. Oakland – Yonder Alonso
13. St. Louis – Tim Melville
14. Minnesota – Brett Wallace
15. Los Angeles (NL) – Jake Odorizzi
16. Milwaukee – Christian Friedrich

I would be ecstatic if the draft fell this way – of the ones lised above, I am least sure of the direction Texas, Oakland LAD and Mil are going

1 Brian Matusz
2 Tim Beckham
3 Pedro Alvarez
4 Justin Smoak
5 Buster Posey
6 Aaron Crow
7 Gordon Beckham
8 Eric Hosmer
9 Ethan Martin
10 Brett Wallace
11 Kyle Skipworth
12 Shooter Hunt
13 Jake Odorizzi
14 Yonder Alonso
15 Tim Melville
16 Tanner Scheppers
17 Ike Davis
18 Aaron Hicks
19 Christian Friedrich
20 Gerrit Cole

1 Pedro Alvarez
2 Justin Smoak
3 Brian Matusz
4 Tim Beckham
5 Buster Posey
6 Eric Hosmer
7 Gordon Beckham
8 Aaron Crow
9 Ethan Martin
10 Yonder Alonso
11 Kyle Skipworth
12 Shooter Hunt
13 Jake Odorizzi
14 Brett Wallace
15 Tim Melville
16 Tanner Scheppers
17 Christian Friedrich
18 Aaron Hicks
19 Ike Davis
20 Galloway

1 Pedro Alvarez
2 Brian Matusz
3 Tim Beckham
4 Justin Smoak
5 Eric Hosmer
6 Buster Posey
7 Aaron Crow
8 Gordon Beckham
9 Yonder Alonso
10 Kyle Skipworth
11 Shooter Hunt
12 Brett Wallace
13 Zach Collier
14 Jake Odirizzi
15 Tanner Scheppers
16 Brett Lawrie
17 Ethan Martin
18 Aaron Hicks
19 Ike Davis
20 Christian Friedrich
—-—-—-—-—-—-—--

Made really quickly off the top of my head. Main thing I want to highlight is the rise of Collier and Lawrie.

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/columnists/davidrawnsley/2008/draft/pg_predraft_showcase_review.aspx
Interesting list of not especially heralded players. That last guy, Frost, sounds very appealing.

I would replace Galloway with Lawrie in my list but would not put Collier in my top 20.

Lawrie could be 18 and 19 for me after Ike Davis, pushing Aaron Hicks and Friedrich out of my top 20 (Scheppers can move out too, since he really doesn’t look like a first round guy anymore).

Stosh Wawrzasek is guy I’ve mentioned before over at scout.com. I like him and he’s a Canadian to boot. If they fail to grab a HS hurler in rounds 1 or 2 (likely) hopefully they’ll look at Stosh in one of those 3-5 rounds.

As we have four ballots of at least 21 names each, I am now tabulating our results.
Scoring is as follows:
1st place = 30 points.
2nd place= 28
3 = 26
4 = 24
5 = 22
6 = 20
7 = 18
8 = 16
9 = 15
10 = 14
11 = 13
12 = 12
13 = 11
14 = 10
15 = 9
16 = 8
17 = 7
18 = 6
19 = 5
20 = 4
21 = 3

name score
1 Brian Matusz 114
2 Pedro Alvarez 108
3 Tim Beckham 106
4 Justin Smoak 102
5 Buster Posey 82
6 Eric Hosmer 78
7 Aaron Crow 78
8 Gordon Beckham 68
9 Yonder Alonso 54
10 Kyle Skipworth 54
11 Shooter Hunt 50
12 Brett Wallace 48
13 Ethan Martin 44
14 Jake Odorizzi 43
15 Tim Melville 36
16 Tanner Scheppers 26
17 Brett Lawrie 25
18 Ike Davis 23
19 Aaron Hicks 21
20 Christian Friedrich 17
21 Zach Collier 11
22 Gerrit Cole 10
23 Anthony Hewitt 3
24 Isaac Galloway 3

We have two possible ties to prepare for
Highly doubtful
Eric Hosmer vs. Aaron Crow

Not likely, but within reason
Yonder Alonso vs Kyle Skipworth

Personally, I take Hosmer in the first one and Skipworth in the second one.

Hosmer over Crow
Alonso over Skipworth

name score
1 Pedro Alvarez 138
2 Tim Beckham 134
3 Justin Smoak 128
4 Brian Matusz 114
5 Eric Hosmer 102
6 Aaron Crow 100
7 Buster Posey 90
8 Gordon Beckham 82
9 Kyle Skipworth 74
10 Yonder Alonso 72
11 Shooter Hunt 63
12 Brett Wallace 57
13 Ethan Martin 51
14 Tim Melville 47
15 Jake Odorizzi 43
16 Tanner Scheppers 41
17 Aaron Hicks 37
18 Brett Lawrie 35
19 Ike Davis 23
20 Christian Friedrich 17
21 Zach Collier 14
22 Gerrit Cole 15
23 Alex Meyer 12
24 Casey Kelly 6
25 Andrew Cashner 4
26 Anthony Hewitt 3
27 Isaac Galloway 3

Tie-breakers are no longer relevant

I can’t access that board from the office, but it looks like parrot11’s opinions, while very divergent from the rest of ours will be highly unlikely to result in us taking a player the rest of us are unhappy with.
Beyond his love of Hicks, the rest of us have quite strongly indicated that any one of Wallace, Martin or Odorizzi would make us happy. So we have them at 12, 13 and 15, respectively on our board. While Scheppers is at 16, I will not pull that trigger unless I heard from a very reliable source that the injury is not serious in the long-view, and that he should be expected to return to his April form by the end of the minor league season.

Finally, does anyone know where I can pick up a print draft guide? I had thought BA would release one, but I can’t seem to find it. I am happy to pay up to $10 or so on a guide, but do not want to pay for web membership anywhere but at BP.

It is much more difficult to create a real “board” for much more than 20-25 picks with great accuracy. I also beleive that after that first level of top talent, the “best player available” becomes too general a term and not too helpful.
BA came out with a top-200 list and their draft preview rag will hit stores very soon (I spoke to one of their writers), we willhave a lot of well-considered names. Following another Hall of Merit method, I suggest we break the players down by general defensive position (catcher, infield corner, middle infield, OF, RP, RHS, LHS) and rank each position based on overall 4-6 year projection. If we can be confident with theposition by position ranks, we can play the draft by ear and only worry about a handful of choices with each pick.

Fair enough – I have the BA top 200 in a spread sheet. I could email it to you and you could let me know if there’s anyone you think should be significantly up or down graded (outside of our top 25 here)

Sorry, just to be clear do you have the scouting reports by BA or just the list? The list is available for free now on their site (players were listed with their BA top 200 number in that past post) but the scouting reports would be very much appreciated.

I’m hoping to get a look at the PGCC top 250 or so list at some point and that should act as another good point of reference.

I’m not a subscriber

BAsed on new reports of Lawrie destroying professional players (Rookie league, but still – he’s a Canadian high schooler), I have moved him up my list a few spots, and this resulted in him moving up our own draft board into a tie with Tanner Scheppers.
As I absolutely won’t take Scheppers barring the emergence of a glowing health report in the next few days, that has Lawrie in 16th.

That was definitely an optimistic report and I’m with you 100% on not taking Scheppers barring a turn in his health projection.

Here’s my first attempt at ranking players for 63, I’m just using the players I’ve mentioned before.

52. Sonny Gray, HS RHP
62. Jaff Decker, HS OF
69. Tyler Ladendorf, JC SS
63. Tim Murphy, College LHP
54. Destin Hood, HS OF (two sport guy, tough sign)
59. Xavier Avery, HS OF (two sport guy, tough sign)
99. Jay Austin, HS OF (somewhat similar profile to Eric Eiland, LHB with good speed and has showed power this year he hasn’t in the past)
74. Lonnie Chisenhall, JC 3B
72. Zach Cox, HS 3B
90. Eric Thames, College OF
81. Tyler Chatwood, HS RHP
70. Nick Maronde, HS LHP (Boras client, could take him off the list)
66. Zeke Spruill, HS RHP
61. Chris Carpenter, College RHP (If you wanna see his draft report from MLB, check out last year’s report on him)
73. Adrien Nieto, HS C
65. Niko Vasquez, HS SS

Parrot, OS&B here it is:

Smyrna (Tenn.) high school righty Sonny Gray switched agents last week, and subsequently notified clubs that he intends to matriculate at Vanderbilt this fall and therefore teams should not select him in the upcoming draft

Signability doesn’t really matter so I think we could still pick him, but I understand if you guys want to stay away based on the the signability. The injury does nothing for me. It was a freak leg injury (happened running to first base after he was at bat, not even pitching) and he should heal up fine.

1) The BA Draft Guide is available in Canada – just picked it up at Indigo Eaton Centre.

2) I was corresponding with John Manuel of BA, who mentioned that Lawrie’s helium has been enough to have him drafted in the 10-20 range “for sure.”

I have already bumped him up my board. If anyone else wants to update their top 20-22 board, feel free. It isn’t too late.

1. Brian Matusz
2. Tim Beckham
3. Justin Smoak
4. Aaron Crow
5. Pedro Alvarez
6. Eric Hosmer
7. Buster Posey
8. Gordon Beckham
9. Yonder Alonso
10. Kyle Skipworth
11. Shooter Hunt
12. Brett Wallace
13. Brett Lawrie
14. Jake Odorizzi
15. Gerrit Cole
16. Tim Melville
17. Ethan Martin
18. Ike Davis
19. Zach Collier
20. Aaron Hicks
21. Tanner Scheppers
22.Christian Friedrich

I’m officially on the Lawrie bandwagon. I’m tempted to put him above even The Walrus.

Martin behind both Cole and Melville? Melville appears to be struggling again and I’ve heard his velocity has been down…

name score
1 Pedro Alvarez 138
2 Tim Beckham 134
3 Justin Smoak 128
4 Brian Matusz 114
5 Eric Hosmer 102
6 Aaron Crow 100
7 Buster Posey 90
8 Gordon Beckham 82
9 Kyle Skipworth 73
10 Yonder Alonso 71
11 Shooter Hunt 62
12 Brett Wallace 56
13 Brett Lawrie 52
14 Ethan Martin 50
15 Tim Melville 45
16 Jake Odorizzi 41
17 Tanner Scheppers 39
18 Aaron Hicks 37
19 Ike Davis 22
20 Zach Collier 19
21 Christian Friedrich 14
22 Gerrit Cole 14
23 Alex Meyer 12
24 Casey Kelly 6
25 Andrew Cashner 4
26 Anthony Hewitt 3
27 Isaac Galloway 3

Lawrie is now 13th. I am in agreement with metafour about the high school pitchers. Outside of velocity, I have only heard negative things about Cole, to the point of not wanting anything to do with drafting and developing him. Melville also gets conflicting reports causing me to downgrade him slightly. Still I think he’d be good value at 17, but I definitely prefer Martin.

1 Pedro Alvarez
2 Justin Smoak
3 Brian Matusz
4 Tim Beckham
5 Buster Posey
6 Eric Hosmer
7 Gordon Beckham
8 Aaron Crow
9 Ethan Martin
10 Yonder Alonso
11 Kyle Skipworth
12 Shooter Hunt
13 Jake Odorizzi
14 Brett Wallace
15 Brett Lawrie
16 Tim Melville
17 Tanner Scheppers
18 Christian Friedrich
19 Aaron Hicks
20 Ike Davis

name score
1 Pedro Alvarez 138
2 Tim Beckham 134
3 Justin Smoak 128
4 Brian Matusz 114
5 Eric Hosmer 102
6 Aaron Crow 100
7 Buster Posey 90
8 Gordon Beckham 82
9 Kyle Skipworth 73
10 Yonder Alonso 71
11 Shooter Hunt 62
12 Brett Lawrie 58
13 Brett Wallace 56
14 Ethan Martin 50
15 Tim Melville 44
16 Jake Odorizzi 41
17 Tanner Scheppers 38
18 Aaron Hicks 36
19 Ike Davis 21
20 Zach Collier 19
21 Christian Friedrich 13
22 Gerrit Cole 14
23 Alex Meyer 12
24 Casey Kelly 6
25 Andrew Cashner 4
26 Anthony Hewitt 3
27 Isaac Galloway 3

It’s official – Lawrie has edged Wallace

How did Lawrie get ahead of Wallace? I only see Lawrie up on Wallace on one list, you must’ve moved him up higher than Wallace on your list too, I guess. Anyway, it probably won’t matter because I think Wallace will be gone by the time we’re up.

My reason for having Martin behind Melville and Cole is that his polish is not on their level at this point. I think I read recently that Cole hit triple digits and while Melville has been down he appears to be on the rise and has previously shown that he has good command of his stuff. That’s just a talent ranking for Cole, if we’re taking into account signability then he definitely drops considerably. BA’s report on Martin was glowing so I’m not really opposed to him being ranked over Melville. I think that top tier of HS arms is pretty close, with everybody having their warts.

I picked up the draft issue and based on reading their full scouting reports I’m going to put together a new list for 63 and then 95. One guy I left out of my 63 list last time that I really like is Trey Haley. I know the Cardinals guys are really high on him so I don’t know if he’ll even be around at 63 but I’ll definitely be including him this time.

62. Jaff Decker, HS OF – Good hitter with present power. Matt Stairs comp.

69. Tyler Ladendorf, JC SS – Good size with very good athleticism and power.

61. Chris Carpenter, College RHP – Commands good velocity FB and good CU, injury worry.

96. Bobby Bundy, HS RHP – First round aspirations but suffered ACL injury playing basketball. Has come back early but FB has been down 2-3 mph as he’s pitching with a knee brace. Good frame and stuff is expected to come back to where it was and PG projected him earlier as a possible big-time velo guy. Injury has forced him to improve mechanics and he has shown very good command in HS issuing just 6BB in 54IP.

66. Zeke Spruill, HS RHP – Commands three good pitches with low 90s velocity now and projection for more.

81. Tyler Chatwood, HS RHP – Small guy with Oswalt comp for FB and CU, good velo already but no projection. MLB cites good command. Two-way prospect who could blossom as a pitcher.

63. Tim Murphy, College LHP – Big curve, good college K numbers, average velocity. Two way guy who could improve after focusing on pitching.

57. Stephen Fife, College RHP – Stuff has really come on and now has good stuff with good body, though results don’t match.

67. Aaron Weatherford, College RHP – Good velocity guy with FB command but questions about secondary stuff and delivery might make him a reliever.

99. Jay Austin, HS OF – Five tool player who really performed this year. Runs like the wind with big OF arm so CFer for sure.

54. Destin Hood, HS OF – Two sport guy with a ton of tools.

72. Zach Cox, HS 3B – Ranked 3rd for best power tool of HS hitters. Good hitter, hasn’t shown the power he did last year this year but scouts suspect it’s in him. Small frame.

90. Eric Thames, College OF – Did nothing last year, has really come on this year (pre-injury). BA says he’s a corner LFer (and not a particularly good one) who could mash.

75. Shane Peterson, College 1B/OF – Good results and hitting ability despite peculiar mechanics. Good arm and could play OF as a pro despite below average speed.

124. Taylor Jungmann, HS RHP – Good BB/9 numbers with massive frame. A preseason favourite of Patrick Ebert of brewerfan and PG.

98. Brad Holt, College RHP – Good velo sitting 92-94 up to 96. Has vastly improved his command this year but lacks secondary stuff. Also has very good frame.

65. Niko Vasquez, HS SS – Not a SS, more likely a 3B. He should hit some. Poor student, questionable makeup.

73. Adrien Nieto, HS C – Switch hitter with power to all fields. Good catching tools but skills lag so he might not stick there.

118. Scott Green, College RHP – Huge frame and good FB. Might be reliever but should be tried as starter.

74. Lonnie Chisenhall, JC 3B – Lots of hitting ability, doesn’t have range to play MI. Possibly not enough power to hit at 3B. Makeup issues as he was arrested and kicked off South Carolina last year for larceny.

119. Chris Dominguez, College 3B – Huge frame, great arm strength, plus-plus raw power.

173. Michael Tonkin, HS RHP – BA, “Tall righty has shown plus velocity and changeup, but breaking ball remains a question.” I’ve heard good things about this guy outside of BA like his MLB report.

89. Aaron Pribanic, College RHP – Good velo with improved (though not necessarily good command). Questionable secondary stuff so might be reliever but has a good frame.

108. Ricky Oropesa, HS 1B – Has good arm (pitches with low 90s FB) but is a hitting prospect. XMLBScout on PG boards likes him and BA says he has good power.

93. Joe Weiland, HS RHP – OK stuff with very good present command.

94. Donnie Roach, HS RHP – Good command of pretty good FB and below-average secondary stuff. Has a little projection at 6’1”, 175 lbs.

95. Austin Dicharry, HS RHP – Some projectability with OK 88-92 FB. Advanced pitcher with very good CU.

80. Zach Cone, HS OF – CFer with NFL bloodlines. Good athleticism and raw power, questionable contact ability.

106. Chase Davidson, HS 1B – BA, “Huge raw power and projectable tools have yet to consistently translate to games.”

112. Kevin Eichorn, HS RHP – MLB bloodlines with average stuff and pitchability.

158. Quinton Miller, HS RHP – Name talked about on PG messageboards. Up to 93 mph according to BA and scholarship to UNC. Good control numbers and good frame with projectability.

123. Ryan O’Sullivan, HS RHP – More stuff than brother Sean, recent draftee of the Angels. Good pitchability.

129. Bobby Lanigan, College RHP -Touches 93 and has good Div II stats, would like more Ks.

126. Trey Haley, HS RHP – FB velo 90-95 with good CU and command of both pitches. Lots of projectability and does have a CH. Despite good command mentioned in MLB report walked 34 batters in 50 IP in HS. Those walks have pushed him down here for me.

143. Jordan Swagerty, HS RHP – Solid-average FB and above average breaking ball with good control (10BB in 83IP).

157. Steven Hensley, Collge RHP – Good frame, very good numbers in offensive league.

167. Kyle Winkler, HS RHP – BA, “Two-way player similar to former Houston star Brad Lincoln with low-90s fastball, hard curve.” I really liked Brad Lincoln.

If we don’t draft Lawrie and we want to grab a Canadian player, I suggest taking Stosh Wawrzasek in the fifth. He’s a pretty big bodied pitcher from BC that has pretty good present stuff and competes. However, he isn’t ranked in the top 200 by BA and I don’t know about PG.

I don’t know too much about most of the HS hitters in the 100-200 range, so I’ll just list some names I like (their blurb and a quick glance at their numbers).

103. Javier Rodriguez, HS OF – BA, “Speedy, live-armed right fielder has athletic body and above-average bat speed.” He’s the top prospect from Puerto Rico.

113. Ryan Westmoreland, HS CF – BA, “Top Rhode Island prospect attracts inevitable comparisons with native son Rocco Baldelli.”

127. Johnny Giavotella, College 2B – BA, “Short, slugging second baseman has premium plate discipline, surprising power.”

130. Brent Warren, HS OF – BA, “Athletic, and draws comparisons with fellow Iowan Ryan Sweeney; heart issue clouds status.”

132. Adam Smith, HS SS – BA, “Projectable high school bat with athletic, lean body, above-average speed and throwing arm.”

133. Jake Jefferies, College C – BA, “Athletic catcher with contact-oriented bat struck out just eight times in 200-plus at bats.”

157. Jarrod McKinney, HS SS – BA, “Raw, toolsy athlete probably won’t stay at shortstop; power projections excite scouts.”

175. Gabe Jacobo, College 1B/OF – BA, “Righthanded power bat built off strong Alaska League showing; 27 home runs last two years.”

Of course, I’ve got some guys a lot higher than their BA rank and so with many teams probably relying on the BA (or PG) ranking to make their picks we could probably let some of these guys (like Tonkin for example) drop to a later pick and still be able to pick him up.

Any comments, thoughts? Anybody else with a list of their own?

I’m only now getting sunk into the BA guide.
I will incorporate your notes into my BA spreadsheet and maybe tinker with their list a little bit.
Do we know what time the mock is starting?
Will you be in touch on draft day?
In general, I will be skirting away from bad makeup guys. I strongly beleive that poor makeup will, more often than not, hinder a player from reaching his physical potential.
I don’t like drafting releivers in the early rounds. A pitcher should have a projectable, durable frame. Solid velocity, but no extra points for hitting triple digits (remember Colt Griffin?) A good breaking ball. I also love a pitcher who has the makings of a changeup.
In hitters, I disdain kids who strikeout. Swings with big holes are harder to fix than pitching mechanics. Power can grow, but it’s nice to see a frame for power.
As far as defense goes, we don’t often get much in defensive reports, but good athleticism is a plus, no matter what position.

i don’t have the resources to make an expanded list, but i’ll be around on draft day, which is when?

The Mock Draft starts at 12 PM central (I think that 1 PM eastern) on Saturday and I should be there.

John Sickels will be providing an update on teh mock today on the main page.

Pitchers I like for Round 2 & later (hopefully):
Chris Carpenter
Brad Holt
Tim Murphy
Scott Bittle

And hitters for Round 3 or later:
Logan Forsythe
Blake Tekotte
Ryan Flaherty

The plan for tomorrow’s draft, in a nutshell, is as follows:
1st round) Use our top 25 draft board. No questions – we take the highest rated guy available.
2nd-5th Rounds) Using the BA top 200 as a basis, flag players liked by GoJays7 and my own research as well as the thoughts submitted by others and try to grab the best of the targeted players as they are available in each round.

As the picks beyond our first rounder are very close to their peers in talent, I think it is safe to go for a semblance of balance in the picks. Try to avoid being too heavy in any one direction. Mix it up. For example, if we take a hig school arm in the first and by the time we pick again there is no one major who surprised us by slipping that low, leaving us faced with an arm and a bat of roughly equivalent upside, I’d be prone to take the bat next. And vice-versa.
But we will take what the draft gives us. If we find that guys we targeted way earlier keep falling to us way later and they all happen to be the same type, so be it.

I agree with GoJays7, to a degree, on not taking a mix. You want to end up with the best players period. The success rate after the first round is so low that you just want them to make the majors (which is also a reason why I’m never adverse to pitchers that project as relievers after the first couple rounds). If it doubles up on something so be it.

Also, I’d take Scheppers off the board. I believe some of the rankings were prior to the shoulder problem being known and that would drop him. Probably a moot point, but just in case. There’s nothing that I’ve seen that indicates he’s healthy, and even if he was he was going in the 10 range – not like he was a top 3 pick.

Yeah, I agree. I have no interest in taking Scheppers in the first at this point and he’ll almost certainly be gone come 63.

I’ve incorporated all of everyone’s comments into the draft board and we’re ready to go. GoJays – by mix, I meant in terms of position and not where they came from.
I don’t want to end up drafting 3 first basemen, for example.

Go Jays – if you want, please feel free to add me on MSN messenger – vapourtrails@hotmail.com

Yeah, taking 3 1B probably wouldn’t be the most prudent decision making.

I’ll add you, but does anybody know someplace we can open a chat room or something for free (apparently the chat room at scout.com is only for subscribers) so we can all contribute our thoughts when the picks come up?

Also, after I add you, you might want to take your e-mail down unless it’s a throwaway.

sorry it’s vapour_trails@hot…

Lawrie with the first pick. I’m very excited and he was higher up on our board than this. Should be the start of a strong draft.

took him as a RF because that’s where I think he can give the most value – strong arm, not much responsibility. He could play with Ahrens

I thought for sure it’d be Hunt – didn’t expect the Brewers to take him there.

I’m a little surprised Lawrie made it to #17. The buzz seems to have him higher recently – I thought someone would jump on that.

Yeah, we were surprised too. OFS&B and I actually decided to call an audible and go Lawrie over Hunt. The reasoning for this was based mostly on Hunt’s poor performance down the stretch to go along with reports of his velo being down to low 90s and the obvious command concerns that have turned me off from the beginning.

As the board shapes up for pick 63 if anybody has any input on who they think would be a good post, and the order they’d prefer them in, you should post it so we can come to some sort of consensus on who to look for when our pick rolls around.

Can’t believe they’re still around, but I can’t see them making it to 63. Still a long way to go.

If Tim Murphy makes it to 63 I like him.

They’re gone now unfortunately, OFS&B and I were talking about both of them for 63.

I like Murphy though I don’t know if he’d be at the top my list, we’re also hoping for Putnam. I think he might get sniped by the Cardinals in the 2nd.

gojays7 and I have beendiscussing the merits of Mike Montgomery and Zach Putnam – any comments?

Another guy that we’ve mentioned who might be there is Roger Kieschnick. Lot to like about him but contact ability is suspect.

.... I like Tim Murphy and then Chris Carpenter.

I liked him a lot but he went in the supplemental.

OFS&B is leaning towards FIfe

I like Decker, then Murphy, then Fife.

It was a battle between OFS&B and myself but he won out and we went with Fife. College pitcher with good stuff (getting better) and some big time performances this year, specifically a great game against likely #1 overall next year Steven Strasberg and SDSU.

My personal preference at this point:

Logan Forsythe
Scott Bittle
Blake Tekotte

I’m hoping for Zach Cox. HS 3B, advanced hitting approach and BA ranked his power as third best among HSers (though he hasn’t put it on display in game situations this year).

I’ve said it before, not a huge fan of Tekotte, Bittle or Forsythe. Forsythe doesn’t have power, Bittle looks to be a reliever (though if everybody believes in him I’ll go along) and Tekotte doesn’t have anything outstanding in the way of tools.

as gojays7 has mentioned, right now we’re targeting Zach Cox

but are also considering some high school arms like Bobby Bundy and Joe Weiland

Cox fell (he was rated 72 by BA, ahead of anybody else we mentioned) so we snapped him up. As mentioned, advanced plate approach and believed to have good power. Should be a good hitter and hopefully and average 3B. The fact that he is a lefty bat is also nice.

In the 4th, the Jays took Oklahoma HS righty, Bobby Bundy

Really like the draft so far…

Yeah, I think it’s been a very strong draft. Two polished HS hitters, a college pitcher who’s just coming on and a HS pitcher who if he bounces back properly from a knee injury could be very good.

For the final pick we are considering basically Michael Tonkin and Stosh Wawrzasek. Stosh might have the advantage here because he’s Canadian and his 2008 pre-draft showcase workout for PG seemed to go really well, here’s the report:

Stosh Wawrzasek is a 2008 RHP with a 6’1’’, 225 lb. frame from Langley, BC who attends Walnut Grove Secondary. He has a barrell chest and wide shoulders. Entire body works clean and loose. Polished delivery, great arm action, balanced on the mound. Attacks hitters with a FB that has life in the strike zone. Consistently 91-92 with FB touching higher. CB is sharp 12/6 when on top. He is a competitor on the mound who is signed with Florida International.

As we’re just picking for fun anyway, it’d be nice to take the Canadian kid and would provide some extra incentive to follow his career. Any thoughts Metafour? Anybody else you like that you think should be considered for the final pick?

I really like Quinton Miller from what I’ve read about him. Brewerfan compared him to Odorizzi and I can see why: similar projectable frames with possibility for multiple above average pitches. His stats are good and I like what I’ve read about his stuff from Brewerfan: 92-94mph fastball with good command, sharp breaking curveball, and “one of the better changeups among HS pitchers.” I dont know how much you guys care about signability because I doubt he’d sign as a 5th round pick but I’d prefer him to the Canadian kid. Brewerfan has him at #86 BTW.

Michael Tonklin looks very interesting as well from a quick glance although I have no idea what he throws or how well he throws it. I’d like that pick as well.

Tonkin has a MLB report up. He’s another one of my good FB, good FB command guys and his numbers support it.

I’ve heard Q Miller talked up before, he’s definitely a good option. I doubt Tonkin or Miller would sign as 5th round picks but it’s a gamble at this point with any HS player.

Right now we’re leaning towards but Stosh still but I can see a good argument being made for each guy.

Metafour, if you wanna make the call on this final pick go ahead man, OFS&B and I are both happy with all the guys mentioned so if you think Q Miller should be the guy then we’re both OK going that route (or Tonkin if you wanna go with him). Also should mention that Tonkin is 6’6”, 190. I do love me tall pitchers (downward plane for GBs) with command.

Name: Chris Amezquita
Height/Weight: 6-2 / 190
Date of Birth: 10/28/89
School: Servite (CA)
Brewerfan.net Rank: 82

A rising name in the scouting community Amezquita has pro-style body already that is reminiscent of fellow former Aflac All-Americans such as Chris Marrero and Jon Gilmore. Like those two players, Amezquita may not have the ideal range for shortstop and may eventually have to move to third or second base, or possibly even the outfield. Wherever he ends up his cannon for an arm will be an asset. As will his bat. With more of a gap-to-gap doubles approach, Amezquita is starting to tap into his considerable power potential. He has very good bat speed thanks to strong wrists and hands and can turn on the best of fastballs. How his power translates into batting practice and game situation this spring may be the difference between him going pro and honoring his commitment to UC Irvine.

First I’ve heard of the kid.

I’ve heard the name, not too familiar with him. Sounds like a promising guy, wouldn’t mind him either

I’d rather take one of the pitchers though

He’s mentioned over at the PG message board I think, I can’t remember how glowing (or negative) the comments were though.

LOL I dont know man I’ll let you guys decide…I’d rather take Tonkin or Miller over the Canadian kid on pure body projectability alone (Stosh seems to be done developing).

My vote is Tonkin as I think he has more velo in him and plenty present command.

I’d be fine with Tonkin…although I’m always worried about the tall, lanky pitchers and their ability to repeat mechanics.

So that’s that!
1) Brett Lawrie – RF – Brookswood SS, Langley, BC
2) Stephen Fife – RHP – Utah
3) Zack Cox – 3B – Pleasure Ridge Park HS, Louisville, KY
4) Bobby Bundy – RHP – Sperry (Okla) HS
5) Michael Tonkin – RHP – Palmdale (cal) HS

If only they are as satisfied with their picks as GoJays7 and I are with ours

Was wondering if any of you had any scouting reports on Fife? I remember BA talking about him and his improving stuff…

Just about to head out the door, he’s his scouting report from BA

“An Idaho native, Fife played in the Little League World Series in 1999, and two of his teammates have joined him this season as rommates and starters at Utah. Fife was just 160 pounds as a prep senior when the Utes first spotted him and he went to Everett (Wash.) CC for a year, pitching against wood bats. He put on 20 pounds that year and now checks in at a physical 6-foot-3, 215-pounds. He pitched middle relief for much of 2007 before earning a rotation spot late in the year, and entered this season as a possible eight- to 12th-round pick. He’s just learning to pitch with power stuff and started to emerge as a popup prospect in April, when he was on the losing end of a 1-0 duel with San Diego State man-child Stephen Strasburg. While Strasburg struck 23 in that game, Fife pitched well enough to win and has been at his best since, one-hitting Utah and ramping up his velocity. His fastball sits in the 89-92 mph range and has touched 95, and he’s shown the ability to maintain velocity deep into games, with several 93s in the eighth inning of a recent start. Fife throws two breaking balls, a true curveball he can bury or throw for strikes and a decent, early-count slider. His changeup also shows good sink, though he could refine his location and arm speed with the pitch. A late bloomer, Fife just has started to dominate, with 44 strikeouts in 41 innings since the Strasburg matchup. He started getting crosschecked in late April in a game with New Mexico and senior lefty Bobby LaFramboise, and other teams were scrambling to have him scouted heavily enough to pick him in the first three rounds. He had as much helium as any player in the West.”