I don’t think anybody has forgotten him. That being said, there was definitely some irrational exuberance (Greenspan ftw) around his short-season performance a few years ago. He’s a young kid from a cold weather state, so there is a lot of room on the growth curve for him (both a good and a bad thing). I don’t think there’s much to your projected promotion rate for him . . .lots of guys play great in A ball as teenagers and then just can’t put it together at higher levels.

Personally I think his potential remains high, but he’s got a lot of work to do. A .429 slugging percentage with lots of Ks is not especially inspiring.

He’s not a top 50 prospect at this point, but he wasn’t a top 50 guy for me a couple of years ago either. He is, however, definitely a much better prospect than Beau Mills and Cody Johnson. He’s better than Burgess as well but by not quite as much.

I think you’re getting a little excited over a hot BABIP run over 56 AB. If you take a closer look at his numbers, you will realize his K% hasn’t improved, his BB% has improved only slightly, and he is not hitting for any power despite playing in the Cal league. His strongest atribute at this point is his ARL. He’s not underrated, he’s rated absolutely correctly….a fringe top 100 prospect.

I don’t know that he’s that under rated; most people have him on the radar, and he got a lot of attention as a high 1st round pick in 2006. High draft picks are more inclined to be over rated.

But, he’s a good prospect and your timetable is pretty reasonable. He’s exactly one month older than Fernando Martinez, and while one level lower, is putting up a bit better numbers (though a very small sample so far; I guess he missed the start of the season?)

What I’d watch are the ratios:
2007: 3.7 PA/SO 12.5 PA/BB 11.8 PA/XBH
2008: 3.9 PA/SO 10.5 PA/BB 12.6 PA/XBH

For 2007, the XBH rate is solid enough, especially considering his age, but you want it to improve a bit as he develops if you want him to be elite. The strikeout and walk rates are a bit more of a concern, but that’s not uncommon for a young player being challenged against older competition.

For 2008, it’s good that so far his ratios haven’t gotten worse. The strikeout and walk rates have improved slightly so far. The walk rate is actually solid, the strikeout rate still a bit high. But, he’s just starting the level; this is why you expect him to spend the year there rather than move up in June.

For me the overall package might be enough for top 100 right now. As I said, I think you’ve got the timetable about right. He could be poised to break out in the next year, with a chance to be “elite”. I would watch for him this year will be to cut down on those strikeouts some more while increasing the extra base hit rate.