Prospect Profile: Tommy Hanson
by John Sickels on May 1, 2008 11:12 AM EDT
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Tommy Hanson was drafted by the Braves in the 22nd round in 2005, a draft-and-follow pick from Riverside CC in California. He signed and made his pro debut in 2006, going 4-1, 2.09 with a 56/9 K/BB ratio in 51 innings for Danville in the Appalachian League, showing excellent control of a fastball/curveball/changeup combination. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2007 book, but noted that he had higher potential and that there was a chance he could break through in '07 and '08, possibly emerging as a top prospect.
Hanson began 2007 with Rome in the Sally League, going 2-6 but with a 2.59 ERA and a 90/26 K/BB in 73 innings, with just 51 hits allowed. Promoted to Myrtle Beach at mid-season, he went 3-3, 4.20 with a 64/32 K/BB in 60 innings. The main negative here was an elevated home run rate at Myrtle Beach, with 10 homers given up in just 11 starts and 60 innings. Nevertheless, I was impressed with him and gave him a Grade B+ in the book this year, a grade for which I took some flack. Most people seemed to think he was more of a Grade B/B- type guy.
2008 has been great so far: 3-1, 0.79 for Myrtle Beach, with a 42/10 K/BB in 34 innings and just 14 hits allowed, zero homers. Yes he's repeating the league, but given the way he's dominated so far I imagine a promotion to Double-A will be in order shortly and we'll get a better read on his progress then. He's just 21 so although he's a league-repeater he isn't old for the competition by any means.
Hanson is a big guy at 6-6, 210 pounds but he keeps his mechanics in gear most of the time. His fastball is solid at 89-92 MPH, with movement. His curveball is excellent and he's made significant improvements with his changeup. My only real concern here is that he's very much a fly ball pitcher, which could leave him vulnerable to excessive gophers at higher levels.
It's too early to draw comparisons to other pitchers, but if he stays healthy I think Hanson projects as a number three starter. If he can pick up a bit more consistent velocity and maintain his command, he could exceed that. Let's see what happens when he hits Double-A. Does his strikeout rate stay steady? Do the home runs come back? These are the two main questions for me.
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B+
I just can’t see giving him an A but he is looking pretty good and has the potential. I’m not sure the Braves have an “A” type prospect unless it’s Heyward and I’m not sure I would be comfortable giving him that right now. Probably by the end of the year but he is the only one (and I’m a Braves fan).
I like Locke as much as Hanson but I’m biased.
Not Sure I'd call him a league Repeater
He was only there for 60IP last year…
To me you have to be there at least 2/3 of a season before I’d really consider it a repeat…
Yeah, not really a repeat
More of a “finishing his first full year there”.
I said B+, but that could go up or down depending on how AA goes. On the velocity front, I heard (either from something at BA or from Goldstein at BP) that he was sitting closer to 94 in his early starts this year. If he maintains that and performs well when he gets to AA (as just a 21-year-old), I think you may want to push him into the A- range.
That said, my expectations are more tempered, and I expect him to do just “okay”, similar to his initial performance in High-A last year.
Yeah
He could definitely move up with a good showing in AA but giving him an A or even A- seems premature to me. How many players got A- or above in his rankings? Were there even a dozen? I can’t see Hanson being in the top 20 prospect range which is kind of what that would be saying.
B
I like Hanson, and he has the performance measures. But his stuff still, imo, doesn’t warrant a higher rating. I could be wrong, though, but I think he’s a B level prospect that could be a solid mid-end of the rotation starter (and at the rate Atlanta is going, hell, they might need him this year).
I read from somewhere that...
...he is throwing much harder than 89-92 nowadays. I have been wondering if anyone can confirm that…
+1
I’ve read a couple places (Baseball America and some newspaper interviews Found Here) that his velocity is sitting in the 93-94 range and topping out around 96ish. If thats the case then I think he could easily be a #2. I was actually posting the other day that his fly ball tendencies scare the bejesus out of me. Course Santana gives up a crap ton of gophers too so I guess we can’t be picky can we?
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