Prospect Profile: Mike Carp
by John Sickels
on Apr 30, 2008 12:05 PM EDT
Mike Carp was drafted by the Mets in the fifth round in 2004, out of high school in Lakewood, California, drafted for his left-handed power. He hit .267/.358/.393 in rookie ball, neither enough to get happy about or discouraged about. I did not put him in the 2005 book but he would have rated as a Grade C prospect.
Carp jumped to the Sally League in 2006, skipping the New York-Penn League. He hit .249/.358/.476 with 19 homers in just 89 games, showing some very impressive power production, though his strikeout rate was high. I did not put him in the 2006 book, which was an oversight on my part as his production was certainly strong enough to rate him as a Grade C+ prospect, with higher potential.
2006 was a breakthrough of sorts: he hit .287/.379/.450 with 17 homers in the Florida State League. He reduced his strikeout rate, which was over once a game in '05 back to a tamer 107 in 137 games in '07. I rated him at Grade B- in the 2007 book, noting that he was a major power sleeper and could surprise people in '07.
He did surprise in '07, but to the downside, hitting .251/.337/.387 in 97 games for Double-A Binghamton. He kept the strikeouts under control, but was hampered by a finger injury. His OPS came out slightly below league average, and he had problems against left-handed pitching. I reduced him to Grade C in this year's book.
If his April start is any indicator, I adjusted the grade too low. He's hitting .361/.400/.619 in 25 games for Binghamton. The sample is small, of course, but he's doing well against both lefties (1.106 OPS) and righties (1.109 OPS). He doesn't turn 22 until the end of June, and looking back at it I didn't account for his age enough in my book rating.
Carp isn't much of a fielder, but if his bat continues to develop at this pace he can be as starting first baseman in the majors. If I were the Mets, I'd leave him in Double-A until the end of June, then promote him to Triple-A on his birthday (June 30th) and see how he handles the International League. I have no idea how the Mets plan on fitting him into the lineup in the long run, but grade-wise I'm moving him back up to Grade C+ right now, and if he is still hitting like this on June 30th I will make that a B- or perhaps a straight B.
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up I gave him the B-
I think the potential is there for a B or B+, but also still some doubts. The Mets thought his struggles last year were partly because he let his conditioning go during the layoff with the finger injury. I also think I remember reading some reports of doubts about conditioning coming from scouts in the AFL (probably via BA).
by acerimusdux on Apr 30, 2008 1:58 PM EDT 0 recs
As a Mets Fan
I went with a B-. I think he has potential to be a decent platoon first baseman. He wont hit with enough power to be a regular, nor does his power(or lack there of) justify his high strikeout rate. He also never has a great contact rate either.
I see him as a 260/320/440 player. And that is with the majority of his ABs coming against righties. I don’t see him facing lefties at all in the major leagues.
Carp has done decently against right handers in the minors. The reason why I have him at 330 for OBP is because in 2007 he walked 37 times 35 of them against right handers. Which is 12.4% of those plate appearances. Slugging wise I think you have to take into account that he was hurting in 2007. But his 2007 line is closer to what I think his MLE would be.
One thing to note is that Carp is repeating the Eastern league this season.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on Apr 30, 2008 2:07 PM EDT 0 recs
Still too early
he’s cooled off a bit lately. No sense overreacting to a small sample size.
by number_twentyone on Apr 30, 2008 3:45 PM EDT 0 recs
Carp
It’s definitely early but I like what I’m seeing. Carp definitely has some talent. If he truly has solved his issues against lefties, I think he’ll be a very useful piece to the Mets puzzle, especially with the steep decline of Carlos Delgado. I don’t think Carp will ever be an all star but he has an outside chance at being a major league regular.
B-
by Lunkwill Fook on May 1, 2008 9:44 AM EDT 0 recs
Grade B
I think John overreacted a bit here to a down year. not to mention his path isn’t terribly blocked right now with Delgado continuing his decline and Michel Abreu in AAA.
No, he’s not a 1.000+ OPS man, but he can be a productive piece of the Mets lineup.
Anyone care to offer a comp? Adam LaRoche? Mike Jacobs?
If it wasn't for disappointments, I wouldn't have any appointments.
by kings33 on May 1, 2008 5:18 PM EDT 0 recs
I think he projects into the Mike Jacobs mold, which is fine by me. He’s tearing it up so far this year.
by MAN in the BOX on May 2, 2008 3:35 AM EDT 0 recs
I said Grade B
when you look at his numbers at jumping into the .800+ OPS range in 2005 and 2006, particularly for 2006 in the offensive stunted FSL you get a better sense of where he is at, bad had injury last year, and of course he was bound to COOL off in 2008, his OPS was about 1.400 after two weeks, JS recommendations that the Mets give him another two months is probably a good conservative approach, but I suspect if he has a good May he will find himself in New Orleans after Memorial Day.
by pboegel on May 2, 2008 6:26 AM EDT 0 recs
As a Mets fan, Carp is better then Jacobs was. Jacobs fits the Platoon 1B role to a dime, Carp has shown some ability to hit Lefties this year. Jacobs was also older, he didn’t make his debut until he was 24, Carp is tearing up AA at Age 21…will probably be in the big leagues by some point next season.
PS: Any thoughts on Carp’s teammates John? Nick Evans is hitting .323/.367/.576 and Dan Murphy is hitting .349/.390/.453. Murphy is a bit confusing as he’s got the reverse splits going on (Lefty bat mashing Lefties and only hitting Singles off of Righties). Also Jon Niese has a 1.82 ERA after 6 starts.
by adropofvenom on May 2, 2008 2:51 PM EDT 0 recs
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