My Top 58 Position Prospects
by rwperu34 on Apr 3, 2008 6:14 PM EDT
43 comments
NOTICE; I will not reply to questions regarding Jed Lowrie, Chase Headley, Snider vs Marrero, or pitchers. My feeling on the first four players is well documented on this site. Pitchers value deserves a thread of it's own. Other than that, fire away.
I was going to release this before the season. I released http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/2/7/132252/7297 this post to give an idea of how I look at things, which lead me to find out that people in my league read this site, so I had to scale back my posting until after my draft.
I'm going to release the preseason list, which was finished in early Febuary. I'll make comments where needed. Keep in mind, ranking carries more weight at the top of the list, rating is carries more weight at the bottom of the list.
1. Jay Bruce, cf, 10.0
2. Evan Longoria, cf, 10.0
3. Colby Rasmus, cf, 10.0
I went back and forth between Bruce and Longoria, but ultimately decided to go with Bruce's youth. Rasmus is pretty clear at #3 for me. Joba and Clay would slide in right here in some order.
4. Cameron Maybin, cf, 9.5
5. Andrew McCutchen, cf, 9.5
I think people forget that 'Cutch was a 20 year old that played a full season at AA. When you look at his numbers in that context and factor in his athleticism, you come up with an elite prospect.
6. Andy Laroche, 3b, 9.5
7. Daric Barton, 1b, 9.5
LaRoche was still young for his level last year. The injury and the emergence of DeWitt would push him down a few spots. Barton looks like the second coming of the current Todd Helton. He's relatively safe, and I have a hard time writing off a super high ceiling for the #2 age-relative-to-league guy last year.
8. Jeff Clement, c, 9.5
9. Brandon Wood, ss, 9.0
10. Reid Brignac, ss, 9.0
I rate Wood as an average deffensively SS. Obviously as a 3b his value takes a hit.
11. Joey Votto, 1b, 9.0
12. Jacoby Ellsbury, cf, 9.0
Two "safe" prospects with limited upside.
13. Carlos Gomez, cf, 9.0-Moves up to #4 with an epiphany and the starting CF job.
14. Carlos Gonzalez, rf, 9.0
15. Chris Marrero, 1b, 9.0
16. Jordan Schafer, cf, 9.0
17. Chin-Lung Hu, ss, 9.0
18. Wladimir Balentien, rf, 9.0
Hu is perhaps the most underrated prospect in baseball at this point, mostly because he will be of very little use to a fantasy team. Balentien's numbers are outstanding. I have since seen him in person and he was pear shaped, which would drop him down a few spots. I'm still going to be higher on him than most. If I rated the pitchers, Cueto, Kershaw, Price, and Bailey would be starting to filter into the list somewhere around now.
19. Travis Snider, of, 8.5
20. Steven Pearce, of, 8.5
21. Matt LaPorta, of, 8.5
A few guys that have a chance to become true middle of the order boppers. Snider would move up to a 9.0 with the news that he'll start the seaon in AA.
22. Ian Stewart, 3b, 8.5-He's still really young for his level and has a chance to be a very good big leaguer.
23. Fernando Martinez, of, 8.5
24. Elvis Andrus, ss, 8.5
25. Carlos Triunfel, ss, 8.5
Andrus moves up to a 9.0, maybe even a 9.5 with the promotion to AA. All three of these guys are high risk, high reward types.
26. Desmond Jennings, cf, 8.5
27. Matt Wieters, c, 8.5
Jennings is one guy I will admid that I could be underestimating. He's got tools and plate discipline, and that usually turns out well. Still, he's only heading to high A this year, so he's a long long way off. Why is Clement rated so much higher than Wieters? They have basically the same scouting profile, only Clement is two years more advanced and has "proven" that he can hit for power as high as AAA. Basically they have the same ceiling, only Clement is much safer and, in theory, could start producing at the MLB level much sooner.
28. Nate Shierholtz, of, 8.5
29. Scott Moore, 3b, 8.5
30. Chris Davis, 1b, 8.5
That was based on the assumption that Shierholtz was major league ready, which he is. Not a whole lot of upside, but should be a solid outfielder. Still, I'd have to ding him for getting sent to AAA. Moore is just forgotten about, but he has a chance to be a solid MLB power hitter. The power is real for Chris Davis, and it needs to be, given the rest of his limitations.
31. Trevor Plouffe, ss, 8.5
32. Chris Nelson, ss, 8.5
33. Brett Lillibridge, ss, 8.5
These three are really interchangeable. Plouffe is really underrated. His offensive numbers look alright for a SS when you consider is youth and level. He's a medium risk, medium reward type of player. Nelson has the biggest ceiling of the three, but he's also the most risky.
34. Blake Dewitt, 3b, 8.5
35. Eric Campbell, 3b, 8.5
36. Angel Vilalona, 1b, 8.5
That's right, I had Dewitt rated #34 (about #55 overall if you counted the pitchers) heading into the season and drafted him to my fantasy team when the news broke five minutes before the draft that he was the starter[/brag]. He obviously moves up a pantload since the Dodgers showed the confidnece in him to start him at 3b for a division contending club. His early performance will only move him up higher. I'm downplaying some makeup issues with Campbell, assuming that kids mature as they get older. I've seen Big-V in person, and I'm a believer. He's just so far out.
37. Austin Jackson, cf, 8.0-Here we learn a new term, "prospect volatility". Jackson could very well be a top five prospect next year...or he could fall off the chart. AA will tell the truth:)
38. Neil Walker, 3b, 8.0
39. Chase Headley, 3b, 8.0
40. Josh Reddick, of, 8.0
41. Aaron Cunningham, of, 8.0
For those of you who follow me, you know I think Headley is quite a bit overrated. That's not to say he's not a good prospect, I just see him as high risk/meduim reward. Reddick is greatly underrated, mostly because he's not toolsy. Still, his power/contact combination could go a long way. Cunningham comes down with the injury, but I still like his chances of being an MLB OF.
42. Jed Lowrie, ss, 8.0
43. J.R. Towles, c, 8.0
44. Geovany Soto, c, 8.0
Yes, I think Trevor Plouffe has a better chance of being what people think Jed Lowrie is. Lowrie is a classic medium risk/low reward type of player. Soto is a little porkball, and that turned me off. I don't care what the sites say, I stood within ten feet of him, and he looked to be about 5'11" 250. I didn't really like him even before that.
45. Chris Lubanski, of, 8.0
46. Chris Carter (Oak), 1b, 8.0
47. Matt Antonelli, 2b, 8.0
48, German Duran, 2b, 8.0
I have since learned why nobody likes Lubanski, and he would drop off of my list. Carter is a big bopper, and he'll need to be to have any value. Antonelli and Duran are basically the same player statistically. Duran really doesn't have any weaknesses, but lacks a true strenght, while Antonelli has some strengths, but also some weaknesses.
49. Nick Weglarz, of, 8.0
50. Ryan Royster, of, 8.0
I haven't really read a whole lot on these two, so this is based mostly on stats.
51. Kyle Blanks, 1b, 8.0
52. Tyler Colvin, cf, 8.0
Blanks has lots of power and lots of fat.
53. Mike Moustakas, ss, 8.0
54. Sean Rodriguez, ss, 8.0
55. Josh Rodriguez, ss, 8.0
Lots of risk here, in differnt forms.
56. Taylor Green, 3b, 8.0
57. Billy Rowell, 3b, 8.0
58. Bryan Anderson c, 8.0
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Jose Tabata
doesn't make your top 58?
by number_twentyone on Apr 3, 2008 6:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re: Tabata
Tabata rated a 7.5 and just skimming over the positions might have been the next one on. He's really young, but he doesn't play a premium position, so he's really going to have to hit. He hasn't done that yet. Also, I've never read anything touting him as a great athlete. All that adds up to a pantload of risk, and his early performance, scouting reports, and position, limit his upside, especially in the short term. He's another that will be volitale this year, because I assume he's going to play at least some at AA, and even if he doesn't hit for power, if he can mantain his contact rate, that will really help his prospect status. If he has a power breakout at AA (ie about 12-15 hr), he could vault into the top 15-20.
by rwperu34 on Apr 3, 2008 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're being very inconsistent
compare him to some of the hitters you listed.
by number_twentyone on Apr 3, 2008 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which hitter?
Which hitter on the list do you think profiles similar to Tabata?
by rwperu34 on Apr 4, 2008 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
F-Mart
for one. And he's loads better than Shierholtz, Lubanski, or Colvin.
by number_twentyone on Apr 4, 2008 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What makes him better?
Take Nate Schieholtz, a guy who plays the same position, for example. What makes Tabata better than Schieholtz? Does Tabata have a higher ceiling? Sure. Does that make up 100% of a prospects value? No. Schierholtz is ready to provide major league value right now, Tabata is a couple of years away. Schieholtz, by virtue of being older and closer to the show is far less risky. From my understanding, Schierholtz is good defensively. I have not heard much about Tabata's defense. Tabata just doesn't have the ceiling to compensate for all of that. I'd take a low ceiling second division starter right now, which is what Schierholtz is, over a risky, medium ceiling AA prospect, which is what Tabata is.
Fernando Martinez is the same age, played a level higher, has shown more power (Tabata might be the only prospect we can say that about) and walked more albeit with a higher K%. On top of that, Martinez is a CF right now, which means he can fail defensively and has someplace to go. On top of that, he gets much better scouting reviews.
Colvin has his problems, but he is a CF that has shown pretty good power despite being young for his level. If he were a RF, he would not rank at 8.0, but he's not a RF. He's a CF. That makes a big difference.
Lubanski is a guy that would not rank on the list if I revised it. That doesn't mean Tabata would make it. That means it would be a top 57 prospect list instead. I ranked everybody that rated 8.0 or higher.
by rwperu34 on Apr 4, 2008 3:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Martinez is not a CF
In fact, he's closer to a 1B than a CF. He has not shown better plate discipline than Tabata, and has been injured far more often.
You're just being arbitrary at this point. You're not showing any inclination to change your mind, but you are really grasping at straws. No prospect outside of that top-tier class is free of all questions.
by number_twentyone on Apr 4, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lars Anderson
I think people are underestimating Lars. I could see him in the mid 20s at best, 40s at the least.
by Robinson Checo on Apr 3, 2008 6:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re: Lars
I have him rated a 7.0, and that's with a one point boost for the scouting reports. Since he's a 1b, he's really going to need to mash to be a superstar, and his stat line doesn't really play that out. Right now, the hope is he develops into Daric Barton. The risk of him not developing the power coupled with the fact that 2008 will be spent in high A tripled with the fact that his posiition makes becoming a true superstar very difficult just beats him down. If he mashes in A+ this year, he'll get a boost, but still won't be a top flight prospect. 1B is just a tough position to be a top overall prospect until you get into the upper minors and reduce the risk somewhat. The only way around that the to show massive power (ie Blanks, Carter).
by rwperu34 on Apr 3, 2008 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Heyward?
A little shocked not to see Heyward in there. Is there a reason for that omission?
by was385 on Apr 3, 2008 8:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re: Heyward
Youth. He came out as a 7.0. He's very far away and very risky.
by rwperu34 on Apr 3, 2008 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice list....
Thanks for giving reasonings for most players. I give kudos to anyone who takes the time to do one of these, since my ass is too lazy to.
I won't quibble over any of your ratings or rankings, they are purely your beliefs, but I will say that your feelings about Lowrie mirror mine about Andrus.
But, I do wonder what makes you think that Barton is comparable to Helton? Helton is a superb defensive 1B, where as Barton is known for a lack of defense. Also, do you really think Barton is going to hit 300+ career HRs? Helton had a seven year stretch where he hit 25+ homeruns per season, and likely could have continued on that path a few more years if he didn't get hurt (or stopped using steroids, whichever you believe). I just don't see Barton doing that.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on Apr 3, 2008 8:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re: Barton
I should have clarified a little better. I think Barton is headed toward what Todd Helton is now with the bat. Lots of OBP, lots of doubles, and 15-20 HRs and he's pretty "safe". I'm also not willing to write off his power just yet. He was only 21 in AAA last year, and Todd Helton didn't hit double digits in HR until his AAA year at 23 (he hit 16). That lead to one of the biggest prospect vs prospect debacles ever. I took Travis Lee instead of Helton because Helton didn't have the power:)
Barton was #2 in ARL for prospects on my list.
by rwperu34 on Apr 3, 2008 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so RWPERU34
What do you think Rasmus upside is?
by Bravesin07 on Apr 3, 2008 8:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re: Rasmus
.950 OPS with good CF defense? However you quantify it, it's pretty dern high and he's really close.
by rwperu34 on Apr 3, 2008 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vitters?
good list of studs. I wondered why Josh Vitters didn't make the list? pretty good power guy. also would love
to see your pitchers list.
by rugger on Apr 3, 2008 8:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
past lists
Very interesting list and thanks for posting it. i'm very curious if you've done this in the past and if so, if you could share some of your previous work to see how those lists panned out. i'm pretty new here so sorry if i should know if you've done these before...thanks.
by TheFranchise9 on Apr 3, 2008 8:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re: Past lists
I have never done a past list in this format. In the past I've done it for whatever fantasy league I was playing in at the time, so it was heavily weighted to that format. The one batch of lists I do have going back quite a ways are for my Dice League, but players have to have 100 ab or 25 IP to be eligible, so it's not a true prospect list. On top of that, we draft every other year. I mean, how hard was it to rate Pujols a 10.0 after 2002? I do have a list of minor leaguers to follow from a draft in the early 90s. When I get home (I'm on vacation), I'll look at it and report what I find. I also have my baseball card collection memories from my teens, which would be guys like Canseco, Tartabull, and Galarraga.
by rwperu34 on Apr 3, 2008 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No Gio Gonzales or De Los Santos?
When will then be now? Soon.
by Syphon on Apr 3, 2008 9:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Are you kidding?
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Apr 3, 2008 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think they should be 45-50ish.
When will then be now? Soon.
by Syphon on Apr 3, 2008 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I should prob learn to read.
LoL.
When will then be now? Soon.
by Syphon on Apr 3, 2008 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
NM I am dumb.
When will then be now? Soon.
by Syphon on Apr 3, 2008 9:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No Dirk Vadjer?
Give me a break. This list is incomplete!
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Apr 3, 2008 9:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Duran
Ok, I'm a Rangers fan and like Duran as much as anybody, but that's just nuts.
A working class hero is something to be.
by t ball on Apr 3, 2008 11:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How about Kalish?
Reddick but no Kalish surprises me a bit. I like them both a lot but it seems like Kalish is almost always ranked ahead of Reddick.
by daser on Apr 3, 2008 11:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re: Kalish
Kalish is a scouting darling, Reddick is a stat darling. In situations where I have less information, I'm going to rely more on stats, and Reddick is way ahead there.
by rwperu34 on Apr 4, 2008 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ahh
I would prefer scouting when there isn't enough info. Stats are nice later down the line but notso earlier.
by pedrophile on Apr 4, 2008 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice list
Especially appreciate your reasoning each position and the ratings.
That being said you are really going to be wrong about Chase Headley brother, sorry. There is actually close to ZERO risk regarding him. He is going to be a solid big league refular from the moment he steps on the field.
by casejud on Apr 4, 2008 2:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Few thins
Nice list overall, I have some problems though.
Dewitt is way to high. He doesn't project to be an MLB regular imo. And if he does, is on a third tier team.
Rowell, the kid was hurt last year with an oblique strain. He was the number 9 pick overall and still has huge power potential. Many of the players on this list are going to be blocked in some manner and you know that he wont be. He'll hit big time this year.
Where do you see Scott Moore playing in the future?
Is Nelson a SS?
Isn't Lillibrige the odd man out for the Braves?
Lubanski is 23, has almost always played in hitters leagues and doesn't have much of a position. There is a reason the Royals haven't brought him up, no? He also had a poor showing at AAA.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on Apr 4, 2008 10:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Chris Nelson
This guy is going to be very good. Power & Steals. He'll obviously move to 2b which has already been talked about.
As for DeWitt, why does he only project to be a part timer? He's made a few top 100 lists in the past for sure. He certainly could be a late bloomer a la Brandon Phillips. Nobody in their right mind expected 30 homers out of him one day.
Rowell, spot on.
Agree on Lubanski & Lillibridge. Frankly, I don't think Lubanski belongs anywhere near the top 58
P.S. Great work on the list. I give anyone credit for putting something like this together and then backing it up w/ their thoughts/opinions. Thanks!
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Apr 4, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
P.S. comment was directed at rwperu34
just to clarify
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Apr 4, 2008 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re: Many Players
Dewitt is 21, has great contact ability, has been young for his level, and enough power to give us hope.
I like Rowell, but it's hard for me to rank him that much higher than guys drafted in 2007. His stats were lousy, but he was young for his level, but his level was low. He's a high risk, high reward type. If he rakes this year, obviously he'll move up the list. If he flounders, he probably drops down a grade.
I see Scott More starting at 3B for the Orioles. Melvin Mora is 36 and nearing the end, and Billy Rowell is a few years away and a big risk. Moore Ks too much, but he's got good power and draws some walks.
I'm not sure if Nelson is a SS or not, although I lean against it. He's young enough that the bat might even develop enough for him to play a corner outfield spot.
Lillibridge is the odd man out for the Braves. That hurts his fantasy value more than it does his prospect value. He's still a good player, and if he doesn't get his chance with the Braves, he'll get it somewhere.
Lubanski was clearly a mistake, and if I revised the list, he would not be on it.
by rwperu34 on Apr 4, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plouffe
Nice list overall. I think you have Plouffe way too high though. Sure, he hits OK for a shortstop, but he is also one atrocious defender. I'll be surprised if he develops into a regular.
http://rswanzey.blogspot.com
by rswanzey on Apr 4, 2008 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re: Plouffe
My understanding is that Plouffe is a tick below average defensively right now. There are certianly some questions on how that's going to turn out, but it is still possible given his youth that it turns out for the better.
by rwperu34 on Apr 4, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great List
My only question regards your criteria as much as anything. While I think the 6-year, club-controlled window is also the best way to rate prospects from an organizational stand-point, I wonder if you think that Daric Barton in his age 22-27 season will really out-perform Joey Votto in his age 24-29 seasons?
I see Barton having the better career, but he's not going to have much, if any power these next few seasons at first and DH.
Your thoughts?
I'm looking for a few knowledgeable fans who'd like to join me on Baseball Mastermind, whether you're a scout, a sabermetrician, a journalist or just a die-hard fan. Sign up for an account on BM today.
by Baseball Mastermind on Apr 4, 2008 7:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re: Barton vs Votto
I think Barton is just as good a hitter as Votto right now, even without the power.
by rwperu34 on Apr 4, 2008 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
I can safely file you under the ever popular and extensive Cubs hater group here on this website. Anyone who thinks Soto is 250 is either blind or stupid. I'm going to enjoy watching him make you look like an idiot.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 4, 2008 11:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lubanski
Going to make a ton of people look silly this year. He ALWAYS struggled going to a new level but turned on the jets during the 2nd half. Since he was promoted the during the season for the first time, it showed in his stats at the end of the year. He's going to put up a very similar stat line to the one he did in Wichita (.290/.360/.500) and could start in LF for KC in '09. BA rated him 16th in the system, and BP like 11th or something. I proudly rated him 4th in the system, and I damn well am going to stick by that projection.
Believe it!
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Apr 6, 2008 2:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for your input, Wayne
I'm going to enjoy watching him make you look like an idiot.
I'm sure Geovany, who is heavy, goes to the park every day hoping to prove rwperu34 wrong.
The guy puts out a thoughtful list, takes the time to answer criticisms thoughtfully and you still gotta ride him. Booooo.
p.s: I so hope Mat Gamel gets on the next version of this list. He has brought the rake to AA.
by criminal type on Apr 8, 2008 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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