Keeper League: Cueto or Kershaw?

by finite24 on Apr 3, 2008 3:06 PM EDT

I have #1 waiver priority and I have to choose between the two. I have to make my decision by tomorrow and unfortunately, that means I can't wait to see more of Cueto. I'm in a keeper league and my rotation is solid, so I'm looking for the pitcher with the most long term value over the next four years (not necessarily upside, but most likely to finish the next four years as the better pitcher).

Do I go with Cueto now or save it for Kershaw? I was leaning toward Kershaw but today's start is hard to overlook. I try not to read too much into SP's debuts because opposing teams do not have good scouting reports. I am also concerned with Cueto's size, his situation (Dusty Baker is a young SP's worst nightmare), and his heavy reliance on sliders (a dangerous pitch) today.

So what would you do in a keeper league where you can afford to be patient? Take Cueto now, or take Kershaw later?

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Also...

we keep all 25 on our roster for four years.

by finite24 on Apr 3, 2008 3:09 PM EDT reply actions

Keeper League...

Over the next four years... its got to be Kershaw.. Not close..

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by JD Sussman on Apr 3, 2008 3:15 PM EDT reply actions

not close?

really?

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Apr 3, 2008 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Few Reasons

1. The Ball Park- Dodger's Stadium isn't nearly as bad on pitchers as American is. I'll get the stats later
2. Team Defense- Looking down the road the Dodgers will have fantastic defense whereas the Reds currently have a poor OF defense
C No Plus Minus for Catchers, but Martin i believe is considered a great defender, don't think the same is said about Ross but i could be wrong.
1B Loney +2, Hatteburg -11 (I won't try and predict Votto but it should be him soon)
2B Kent -13, Phillips +11
3B Don't know for the Dodgers, Edwin Encarnacion -18
SS Furcal + 6, Gonzalez + 4
OF Kemp approx -1/Pierre +9 (CF), Dunn -28
OF Jones +22, Patterson +2/Freel -7/Bruce (wont predict him)
OF Ethier +16, Griffey -8

Defense isn't really all that close as a team the dodgers are +41 without a positive catcher and the Reds are - 55.

3. Bullpen, Beimel, Broxton, Saito is pretty stacked. Although the Reds have some nice arms in the pen i'll take the Dodgers hands down. (to hold leads for more wins obviously)

4. Offense, The Reds scored more runs last year but for the future you'll have regressions by Griffey, Dunn, Freel, Gonzalez, Hattenburg and maybe Ross(don't know much about him) You'll have progression from Edwin, Votto, Bruce but I don't think they add up to all that is sinking. Admittedly, Votto for Hattenburg and Bruce for Freel/Patterson will happen soon and be a nice change.

But the Dodgers should have at least a bounce back year from Jones who should have many more win shares then Pierre of 2007. Kemp, Ethier, Loney, Martin, and 3B will take big steps forward in their own preduction and give better preduction then the players who had majority of AB from their postions, (Gonzo, Garciapara)
Furcal, and Kent will take steps back but Abreu and Hu are going to take over, might be as good but will help defensively for sure.

In pitcher vs pitcher terms I think Kershaw has the more dominating stuff. We can't judge either of them solely on ST. Both were dominate.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by JD Sussman on Apr 4, 2008 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions

deja vu

I could have swore I just read this diary.

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Apr 3, 2008 3:27 PM EDT reply actions

Are you related to kramer2K?

Look bleow a couple of fanposts. The same question was already posted.

My answer is the same here as there. Wait for Kershaw. Better ballpark, Better team, and likely a Better pitcher.

by b1leper on Apr 3, 2008 3:27 PM EDT reply actions

you can't be serious dude

c'mon now

by daveh33 on Apr 3, 2008 4:06 PM EDT reply actions

sorry about that...

didn't see the other post. It's a hot topic in fantasy cause Yahoo users have to decide by tomorrow on Cueto.

by finite24 on Apr 3, 2008 4:25 PM EDT reply actions

Cueto

I'll explain in the other post.

by rwperu34 on Apr 3, 2008 4:27 PM EDT reply actions

Tough choice

I'd go Kershaw, but you can't go wrong either way. The ballpark is a pretty big factor to me.

by jvidri9 on Apr 3, 2008 5:55 PM EDT reply actions

a years difference

In the post a couple spots down, I was torn about maybe taking Cueto just because he's in the ML now. But with four years to hold them instead of three, I think I'd go with the greater upside in Kershaw.

by journeymen on Apr 4, 2008 9:49 AM EDT reply actions

Slightly OT re: Cueto

In light of Cueto's insane opener, I wanted to run down something I wrote form 2 years ago. I don't post much, but I had gone to Dayton to see Justin Upton and Jay bruce play ... Cueto (then unheralded outside of the Cinci org) was on the mound ... he had been putting up good numbers, but NOONE thought he'd have a future as a SP at higher levels ...

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2006/6/26/9209/14077

Paul Householder, Gary Redus, Tommy Lawless, Duane Walker ... prospects rawk!

by design28 on Apr 4, 2008 10:19 AM EDT reply actions