Fantasy Question for Rays fans (or other well-informed souls)...

by Holy Bovine on Apr 28, 2008 2:51 PM EDT Comment 12 comments

I'm in a head-to-head dynasty league, and someone just offered me Reid Brignac for Wade Davis straight up. Pitching is an organizational strength of mine (have no real need for additional starters anytime soon), whereas infield depth is not (have Jimmy Rollins, but no middle IFers in my minor league system at all).

In my opinion, Brignac hasn't done anything noteworthy in 1.5 years, although I know he is highly regarded.

Would you make the deal?

Much thanks in advance...

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I wouldn't

HOWEVER, there are a few factors that could veer in favor of the deal:

1) Brignac’s component ratios have improved each of the last 3 years, including this year so far. This makes a lot of people think the bat will come around. Personally, I just think he’s a low batting average hitter.

2) Davis is far from being guaranteed a spot in the rotation. At the moment, Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Jackson, Hammel, Sonnanstine and Niemann are all ahead of him on the depth chart, and McGee and Price could quickly pass him, as could Talbot and Mason. Brignac only has Bartlett in his way, who’s hitting like Neifi Perez so far this year and hasn’t been all that stellar defensively either.

3) Davis has struggled early this year, and his velocity seems somewhat down since early spring training. Not sure if he’s working through an injury or if there’s some other problem.

4) Brignac’s defense has improved from horrible to shaky to MLB league average since he was drafted, so his glove won’t keep him out of the lineup.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Apr 28, 2008 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Disagree with some of your points.

I agree with your points with Brignac and Davis’ spot in the rotation, but Niemann, Talbot, and Mason are under him. Talbot has been lit up all this year, and Niemann has been about average, and Mason’s stuff is not overpowering enough for the MLB.

Davis dominated in his last start, Davis threw 7.0 shutout innings for the Biscuits and faced only one batter above the minimum. He allowed only three hits on the night, while striking out four and issuing only one free pass.

Bartlett has had a sore arm, his defense hasn’t been anything under Gold Glove besides his arm, which is still bothering him. Doesn’t seem to me that you watch alot of the games if you didn’t know that.

My Blog. Check it out if you wish.

by Cory Alexander on Apr 28, 2008 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What the hell.

Davis threw 7.0 shutout innings for the Biscuits and faced only one batter above the minimum. He allowed only three hits on the night, while striking out four and issuing only one free pass.

Is what that says if you can’t see it.

My Blog. Check it out if you wish.

by Cory Alexander on Apr 28, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

By depth chart

I meant literal depth chart. Anyone who will get a shot at being a starter in the majors before Davis, who is still in AA, is ahead of him on the current depth chart. Long-term, I believe the team likes Davis better than those guys, and Talbot doesn’t look like he’ll turn it around, but if Kazmir and Shields don’t regress, Garza improves as expected, and Jackson keeps pitching like he has early this year, then there’s a decent chance that Davis will be blocked by the time he reaches the majors if one of those other guys breaks out. That’s all I was saying.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Apr 28, 2008 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

For some reason, I’ve always thought there’s a lot of this guy in Reid Brignac as far as player comps go. Brignac is bigger and has obviously developed faster as a player, but I could see his major league performance record looking a whole lot like Valentin’s. .243/.321/.448 career hitter, with 249 career HRs. A nice looking peak but a lot of inconsistency along the way.

by mrkupe on Apr 28, 2008 3:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Probably a better comp

than the one who’s always stuck in my mind…

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bellhma01.shtml

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Apr 28, 2008 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

boy

that’d be disappointing

I will be waiting...24601.

by PujolsJunkie on Apr 28, 2008 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wade Davis

Wade Davis is the one you take here. The De… err… Rays are SERIOUSLY considering taking Tim Beckham with the first overall pick, and i think they will go that direction. So you can’t talk about “depth chart” as if Brignac is in prime shape, because in most likelihood Beckham muddies that up.

Second, Davis is one of the select 4 or 5 the Rays are circling as getting every chance to be long term starting pitchers for their franchise. Kazmir and Shields are locked in. Price is as well, because his ceiling is unlimited. But Niemann, Hammel, Sonnastine, Niemann? lol. These guys are NOT standing in his way. Even if they throw well in the mean time, they will not stop Wade Davis from becoming a starting pitcher soon (hes a year away TOPS). Also…Jake McGee is not in Davis’ way. Jake McGee is just trying to STAY a starting pitcher AT ALL.

Davis has got to be the pick here. Too much production at too high a level with too much talent.

by AtlBr on Apr 28, 2008 5:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

If the Rays have learned anything from player development, it’s that they should NEVER “circle names” as locks to be rotation fixtures in the future. Lots of young pitchers fall apart for various reasons both in the minors and in the majors. Better strategy is to stockpile talented arms and let the chips fall where they may, which seems to be what they’re doing.

And McGee isn’t “trying to stay” a starting pitcher. The guy’s got great stuff that he maintains deep into games and the makings of a very good, deep repertoire of pitches. I would say that even in the worst case scenario (barring injury) that he’s not going to be seriously considered a real candidate for bullpen work for another 2.5-3 years (full year at AA, full year at AAA, then maybe refinement in a 2nd year at AAA or the majors).

Finally, love that line at the end. “Too much production at too high a level with too much talent.” There are plenty of guys for whom you could say all three of those statements were very true, and yet they failed in the majors. Patience and restraint.

by mrkupe on Apr 28, 2008 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wade Davis

Brignac has some nice pop, but ultimately I don’t think he’ll be that special a fantasy player. I’d hang on to Davis, or deal for better.

by acerimusdux on Apr 28, 2008 5:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i think Davis is going to be a frontline starter. Didnt the guy throw a no hitter or several no hitters over the past few seasons? Tough to argue with results like that

by loop on Apr 28, 2008 7:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i had to consider the brignac fantasy future recently also… i decided i think he will continue to hit for low avg…somewhere in the 260-275 range, he does have nice pop in the bat, but I don’t see an eliete SS in him anymore. I see him being a starter for a while and he may very well prove me wrong and knock out 25 every year driving in 90. i also have davis in a fantasy league and I like him more, in our league starters are very overvalued right now though.

"If you were a hot dog, would you eat yourself?"

by Trobone on Apr 29, 2008 12:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs