Prospect Profile: Max Scherzer
University of Missouri ace Max Scherzer was Arizona's first round pick in 2006, 11th overall. He pulled the "go to indy ball and sign late" stunt pioneered by Scott Boras, though he eventually signed before re-entering the draft pool.
Scherzer began 2007 with independent Forth Worth, posting a 25/4 K/BB in 16 innings with a 0.56 ERA. After signing with Arizona, he went to Visalia in the Cal League and posted a 0.53 ERA with a 30/2 K/BB in 17 innings. Very similar numbers which imply that the independent American Association is approximately equivalent to A-ball in competition. Scherzer moved up to Double-A after the Visalia tuneup, but struggled at times, with a 3.91 ERA and a 76/40 K/BB in 74 innings: good strikeout rate, but too many walks. His velocity was also down at Mobile, just 88-93 MPH. He was back up to 93-98 in the Arizona Fall League, used in relief. I gave him a Grade B+ in the book this year.
Scherzer has been a monster this year. Through four starts for Triple-A Tucson, he has a 1.17 ERA and a superb 38/3 K/BB ratio in 23 innings. He's holding hitters to a .146 average. The Diamondbacks promoted him to the major league roster yesterday. Current word is that he will be pitching relief, but an opportunity to start soon could arise, particularly if Micah Owing's ankle is still bugging him later this week.
What can we expect from Scherzer? When everything is right with him, he features a blistering fastball that sinks. His slider is also very strong, and his command has been terrific this year. There's still some question about his changeup, and it remains to be seen if Scherzer will fit best as a starter or reliever in the long run.
Scherzer's statistical track record isn't long enough to draw any massively broad conclusions based on the numbers, other than saying his K/IP confirms his dominance. Scout-wise, here is some video for you to look at:
Max Scherzer of the Visalia Oaks ( Single-A Arizona ) (via farmsystem)
The low 3/4 arm slot looks like it add some deception, but I've heard some scouts say that his delivery has effort in it and his durability may not hold up in the long run. Personally, given what he did in Triple-A this year (admittedly a very small sample,) I wouldn't want to give up on him as a starter in the long run. I'd use him as a long reliever/spot starter this year if I were the Diamondbacks, then ease him into the rotation full-time next season. If he fails at that, then move to the pen.
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Max
I’ve really liked this kid since the day Mizzou played at NU and he gave Gordon an 0-fer and drilled him…....onions. He gets the rap of having “effort” in his delivery because of the head snap at release but IMO that’s not a bad indicator for a pitcher that gets as late in his delivery as he does. His mannerisms are little loose which makes me nervous about his ability to not lose focus for a pitch or two in clutch spots which kills at the ML level but IMO there is no reason this kid’s floor is any less than a #3…..unless of course you pitch for the Dbacks.
Baseball Instructor - www.frozenropes.com
by HuskerBob on Apr 28, 2008 2:54 PM EDT 0 recs
Scherzer
He bad….
That said, there is a certain inconsistancy in the follow-through action of his right leg in the three different pitch offerings featured on the video.
While you can argue that like Timmy Baseball, he ends up with proper form and mechanics, I am somewhat uncomfortable with the inconsistancy of the leg action. Could this possibly portend a k/9 rate of less than 14 per 9 in the bigs….I guess we’ll find out sooner rather than later.
by 07_08_World Champs on Apr 28, 2008 6:07 PM EDT 0 recs
i think
people who see something unorthodox in a pitching motion and automatically see an injury risk are people who have never played ball before (at least at a slightly competitive level). It’s refreshing for me to read a writeup that doesn’t automatically predict DL stints throughout his career.
That said, I think the D-back’s are the perfect team for him. Randy might need to limit his innings, so a couple spot starts wouldn’t be out of the question. And I can’t really see a major controversy brewing if Scherzer pitches well. He can pitch some meaningful innings in the bullpen in the meantime, and possibly replace Edgar Gonzalez if necessary (which wouldn’t be a controversy either, cuz it’s Edgar Gonzalez). The fact that he is in this good situation and not killing himself for every out (Cain, T-Linc…) is just another plus.
by sourstuff on Apr 28, 2008 6:09 PM EDT 0 recs
+1
While I wasn’t suggesting that Max had a specific motion that would eventually lead to injury, most pitching coaches preach repetitive motion for muscle memory, and this would appear to defy conventional teaching methodology. To summate, it has been my experience that most pitching coaches today prefer that pitchers exercise the exact same motion and mechanics on each and every pitch; that the arm come out of the same slot, that the feet land in the same position each time etc.
I was merely pointing out that in the video, Scherzer’s right foot landed in an unorthodox position on the first and third pitches in the video, and that most coaches preach against this, if for no other reason than self-protection, in case the ball is hit back through the box.
I concur that Max is in a good place, other than the fact that he will be pitching half his games in a hitter’s paradise.
Whether he will end up rotation this year or not is anybody’s guess. For an extended period of time, several years ago, Houston was successful with their eventual starters by using them out of the pen for the first year or two. It introduced them to the level of competition while typically cutting down on innings pitched.
by 07_08_World Champs on Apr 28, 2008 7:18 PM EDT 0 recs
Very good observation
but IMO what you are seeing is not an inconsistency. Its a function of the linear energy in the 3 pitch types. While you can’t give or take rotational (hips/shoulders) or potential(leg lift) energy in the motion without tipping the hitter you can change your linear energy because the tip happens post-release. What you see Max doing is delivering different amount of linear energy in what appears to be first a change, then a curve then a fastball, the last of which shows the most obvious post-release back leg action.
Look around at different pitchers on different pitches, its a common mechanism for changing speeds without tipping pitches. I know of several pitchers that will exaggerate the back foot drag on their changeup to take a couple MPH off. Shoulder rotation happens, then right before release the linear and potential energy are translated into the ball by the “unloading” action of the lower back. By dragging the back foot you can take some of this out of the pitch.
Baseball Instructor - www.frozenropes.com
by HuskerBob on
Apr 28, 2008 10:42 PM EDT
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Max making his major league debut right now against the Stros.
Felix Hernandez may be The King, but Justin Upton is a GOD.
by Goose on Apr 29, 2008 10:45 PM EDT 0 recs
And he struck out his first MLB batter. Fastballs. Nice.
by FunWithHeadlines on
Apr 29, 2008 10:54 PM EDT
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Watching him now
against the Stros.
What a whip. He hit 96 twice. It hurts my eyes seeing a pitcher put that much strain on his elbow though. He has anything but an easy motion.
My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.
by Shamus on Apr 29, 2008 10:56 PM EDT 0 recs




