OT: Cliff Lee

by realityconquest on Apr 25, 2008 5:57 PM EDT

Absurd. That is the only word I can think of to describe what Cliff Lee has done this first month of the 2008 season. Apparently Cliff Lee does not believe in going on a hot streak, he believes more in scorching fire. Yes, his current pace is impossible to maintain, FOR ANYONE. However, I don't think its crazy to think he will be very productive the rest of the way. Curious what you all think of the new Cliff Lee.

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Comeback player of the year?

I saw most of his start last night and was very impressed. Lee was attacking the KC hitters and pounding the strikezone with 92-93 mph fastballs all the way into the 9th.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Apr 25, 2008 6:05 PM EDT 0 recs

check out what Rany Jazayerli had to say about him

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=852

by El Duq of Hurl on Apr 25, 2008 6:10 PM EDT 0 recs

Hello everyone,

If Lee keeps pitching somewhat close to this, I’d think he’ll at least be in the discussion for the “Comeback Player of the Year” award. :-)

I, like many, was thinking it would be better to trade him while he still had “some” value, but obviously, Shapiro’s decision is turning out much better than mine would have turned out (presuming Lee would have pitched this well or even close to this well.) Lee is certainly doing much better than I expected, and helping to make up for Sabathia’s slow start – may Lee keep it going! :-)

Just my 2 cents.

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Apr 25, 2008 8:59 PM EDT 0 recs

Heh, if he “keeps pitching somewhat close to this,” he’ll not only get Comback Player of the Year, he’ll also get Cy Young, MVP and an automatic invitation to the Hall of Fame one day.

Which is another way of saying that he will not keep pitching somewhat close to this. The guy has a 0.28 ERA and a 0.41 WHIP. Sandy Koufax wouldn’t be able to keep this up, so I’m confident Mr. Lee won’t either. That said, even when he reverts to form, I think he’ll have a great year.

Just not this great! :)

by FunWithHeadlines on Apr 25, 2008 11:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

MVP

I think he might get the NL MVP if he keeps this up!

by supermets on Apr 25, 2008 11:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

trade now

before it’s too late ;)

by pedrophile on Apr 26, 2008 1:47 AM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah he is pitching wonderfully

but I always said people were writing him off way too early anyway. He had put together two good years before his bad one last year. He was talented enough and had enough of a track record to suggest that last year was the fluke and he was a good pitcher rather than last year being his real ability

by nms on Apr 26, 2008 1:48 AM EDT 0 recs

Agreed

I’ve read in Baseball Prospectus that his stuff has always been the same, but confidence was an issue. Right now he has alot of it, and it definitely shows the way he goes after hitters.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Apr 26, 2008 2:27 AM EDT up 0 recs

If you've read that right then BP is totally clueless

by pedrophile on Apr 26, 2008 9:31 AM EDT up 0 recs

Hi indiansfan and pedrophile,

I think we can agree that BP is pretty clueless in general. It was tough defending Cliff Lee all spring but I don’t understand why people think he has just learned to pitch. He has had some decent years until last year which might have been the abberation. Like everyone else, I think he will fall back to his pre-2007 norms which weren’t that bad. However, if batters continue to swing at the high fastball with two strikes, he may have found a pitch pattern he did not use in the past.

by sdtribefan on Apr 26, 2008 12:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

BP is clueless?

That is not at all factual. Pecota is the best projection system in baseball and most scouting organizations use it (including Mr. Sickels). Comments like yours make me wonder if you are Joe Morgan in disguise.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Apr 26, 2008 1:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

Comments like yours

make me wonder if you are Joe Sheehan in diguise.

BP says lots of stupid tripe. That doesn’t mean Pecota isn’t cool, but their writers generally say things just as misinformed as they accuse everyone else of being

by nms on Apr 26, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hey Joke Stealer

BP helped transform scouting. They may not be right on everything (or even the majority of issues) but stating they are clueless is not at all factual. Major League GMs use BP for a reason; it is informative and helps balance the human element of scouting.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Apr 26, 2008 3:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

I am not saying they have not done

some relevant things in the past but their prospect evaluations are limited, generally inaccurate and puncuated by glib comment and much less perceptive than either John or BA. Your personal attack and name choice reflect that you have an unwarranted high opinion of yourelf.

by sdtribefan on Apr 26, 2008 4:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

No offense meant

I was insulted by your accusation that those at BP are clueless. I have 2 friends who are regular contributors to their site and did not appreciate your remarks regarding their hard work. Also, if you think being compared to a first ballot HOF is insulting then you are a little to sensitive. ;)

My name is in tribute to my fav Royal; KING BILLY BUTLER!!!!!! It is in no reference to my greatness (I would be ranked much higher then king…perhaps i should become Dictator God Billy Royal).

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Apr 26, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

Cannot understatnd why you are insulted when the post

was not addressed to you or even a general post. However, I appreciate the fact that I am to(sic) sensitive. So let me compare your warmth, sincerity, arrogance and lovable nature to Barry Bonds. I am sure you will appreciate being compared to one of the all-time greats.

BTW, Butler is little more than a decent sick who is worthless in the field. As a PS, I did not accuse BP of anything. I merely agreed with pedrophile. As he will attest, that is not too common for us.

by sdtribefan on Apr 27, 2008 3:40 AM EDT up 0 recs

Thanks brother.

I am actually a big Barry Bonds fan. He is a cheat but has been given a raw deal by MLB. Over half the league was doing roids during the period he was, so I find it disgusting that MLB and its fans act like he is the devil.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Apr 27, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hi sdtribefan

I do think Lee can succeed with that high fastball. When it’s coming in 91-92 with the way he hides the ball it looks like it’s 95. From a lefty. And with great control. That is devastating.

But as great as he sounds his margin of error is quite small. He frequently gets oblique problems that always rob him of velocity. Remember the day when he threw 95? So he has injury risks that happen annually that affect his stuff. And he counts on perfect control. IMO that means wait until he is on a hot streak and trade him.

by pedrophile on Apr 26, 2008 8:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hi pedrophile

I think we are going to come much closer to agreeing on this than on Bonderman/Bannister/Westbrook. Old age has probably dimmed my memory but I do not recall Lee going upstairs with the two seamer nearly as much pre-2007. I would not trade him, especially with Westbrook out for a month and CCs unlikely return next year. As you probably recall, I consider the Indians’ depth the key to their competitivenes since they can hardly compare to the batting orders for Detroit, New York and Boston. With Westbrook out, he has moved up to 4th starter position, maybe third. He will give them some help until he breaks down or loses the command. Cleveland has plenty of replacements in Buffalo when that happens.

by sdtribefan on Apr 27, 2008 3:32 AM EDT up 0 recs

Lee

He did go upstairs quite a bit when he was in the minors. Much of it was back when he was in the Montreal org. He had very high K rates and high walk rates. When in the Cleveland org. he backed off the fastball for more control and changed his approach. While he no longer throws 95 he still has enough juice to go upstairs. Heck, when he did throw 95 it was much more erratic and prone to walks and the longball.

I think they would be smart to wait a start or two so people buy into him then trade him. Cleveland has always been adept at bringing decent pitching at a cheap price. Getting a very good bat or an ace closer would be a nice deal for them IMO.

by pedrophile on Apr 27, 2008 10:48 AM EDT up 0 recs

question

what do you think of CC and Carmona having high walk totals this year?

Personally I’m more concerned with CC for now. I think the effect of last year might impact Carmona but it’s more likely to be a few years from now (if they work him hard again).

by pedrophile on Apr 27, 2008 10:50 AM EDT up 0 recs

Actually, I have not been worried that much.

Sabathia is off to a slow start but is pitching better lately, including today. With him, it just is a matter of time. Carmona has pitched pretty well. As you know, I do not think it is a residual of innings since he was not in the top 20 in pitches thrown. I think it is the same issue as in the playoffs, particularly with RH battters. Since they cannot hit the sinker with its movement, they just take the pitch rather than swing. To me, this is just natural evolution of adjustment between hitters and pitchers. I think nearly any pitching staff in the majors would sell their souls to have those two at the top of the rotation, walks and all. But that is just one man’s opinion.

I hope you are not too outraged but at this point I would not trade any of Cleveland’s top eight starters, except for Byrd, for any pitcher on Detroit’s staff, excluding Verlander but including Bonderman. Maybe I have rose colored glasses but I am quite happy with Cleveland’s starting pitching depth.

hey, i am about to go cruising for a week but will answer any response as soon as i can.

by sdtribefan on Apr 27, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

my new favorite line

“In his first start of the season, Lee went 6.2 innings, allowed four hits, a walk, an unearned run, and struck out four. This upset him greatly, and he vowed never to pitch so poorly again.”
I love it!! I’m a huge tribe fan and after his first two starts I was screaming trade him trade him! Now I am one of the many who are thinking…. hello best pitching trio in baseball….

by kershaw_equals_stud on Apr 26, 2008 7:35 AM EDT 0 recs

Maybe

if Carmona stops walking the ballpark.

I will be waiting...24601.

by PujolsJunkie on Apr 26, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

at least

that hasn’t managed to actually hurt the team yet.

CC’s crap pitching obviously is though

by nms on Apr 26, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

It's crazy....

it’s like Cliff Lee has turned into Tim Lincecum :-)

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Apr 26, 2008 12:45 PM EDT 0 recs

My first nomination...

for minor league ball comment of the year

Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
Crash Davis

by Terry Ryan Jr on Apr 27, 2008 8:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

sell him now

I tended to buy more on Westbrook, his stuff actually seemed better after he developed a more solid changeup. While it’s highly unlikely that Lee’s 3-game studdery was a total fluke, he just doesn’t have the lights out stuff to keep putting up gaudy numbers like that, he’s never had more than #2 starter potential, and the dominant performances were just a few lineups being unprepared for the lefty. The only real positive indicator for me is the low walk rate, which should make him at least solid the rest of the way if he can keep it down.

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Apr 26, 2008 6:27 PM EDT 0 recs

BP is clueless

{I’ve read in Baseball Prospectus that his stuff has always been the same, but confidence was an issue. Right now he has alot of it, and it definitely shows the way he goes after hitters.}

is what you said.

I replied that if they actually said this they are clueless. Why?

It sounds like Baseball Prospectus is saying his stuff has never changed, that it was confidence.

2008 – last start
He pitched between 90 and 92 with control all night. His fastball once touched 93. It never went below 90, but he did throw a few cutters in the high 80’s.
He didn’t overthrow.

2007 – average start
He pitched between 86 and 90 with control. Occasionally he would bump it up above 90 by overthrowing and lose his control. This is when he would get hit hard.

This is totally different stuff. This year he is pitching low 90’s all game with movement. Last year he pitched high 80’s and even down to the mid 80’s unless he overthrew. Then of course the ball was all over the place.

This has nothing to do with confidence. Last year he was a nibbler. Which would make people think he didn’t have the confidence to challenge. Not bad assumption. But if you watched the game there was a reason he was a nibbler. Because his stuff stunk. If he challenged he got rocked. This year he challenges because he has the stuff.

So if your post about it all being confidence was correct – then what they said was clueless.

ps: I still think he will strain his oblique and lose his stuff. Why? because that is what C.Lee does.

by pedrophile on Apr 26, 2008 8:11 PM EDT 0 recs

RE: BP didn't say it was a confidence issue

If you check the links out that were posted above, BP is saying what the CW is – since no one has come out to this type of start, and Lee hasn’t really shown any progression other than injury recovery, it’s not sustainable.

The confidence assertion is actually coming from the poster(s) here, BP only says he must be healthy, and in fact, most of the writers have stated the start is in no way sustainable – they all point to his sub .200 BABIP will ensure that a WHIP/ERA correction will occur. The positive stuff they are saying is that we might be seeing a slightly better version of the 2005/6 Cliff Lee, and with his start, that could produce a career year for him – stuff that’s entirely reasonable IMO.

The confidence issue hasn’t been consisently printed in any of the last 3 articles from BP that deal with Lee, so let’s get this out of the way.

On a completely unrelated note – any site that makes predictions is always going to look bad on some – but BP gets it right as well as any site I know (and they’re infinitely better than many expert sources,and > 98 percent of public forum sources) – they deserve accolades, not insults. Food for thought.

by Rotobronco on Apr 27, 2008 8:39 AM EDT up 0 recs