The Return Of Jesus

by King Billy Royal on Apr 24, 2008 10:58 AM EDT

I have to say that I am blown away by the awesome start of Yankee's catching prospect Jesus Montero. He has started his 2008 in a big way with fantastic early stats:

.368 AVG, .563 SLG, 3 HR, 17 RBI

Montero $1.6 million bonus in 2006 was the highest for any international amateur free agent. Baseball America applauded this decision and raved about his skills stating "Montero has exceptional raw power to all fields, coupling a discerning eye for a young plaer with brute strength and bat speed." So far it looks like he is worth every penny.

The primary question regarding Montero is whether he can remain at catcher? He has strong arm strength but he needs to work on his fundamentals to improve his ability to throw out basestealers. If he can do this it looks likes he will be an All-Star for years to come.

What does everyone else think about the heir to Jorge Posada?

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the heir to Jason Giambi.

I will be waiting...24601.

by PujolsJunkie on Apr 24, 2008 11:39 AM EDT 0 recs

Possibly

Although I could see Posada making the move to first in a few seasons.

by King Billy Royal on Apr 24, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up 0 recs

In a few seasons,

Posada will be 39.

by rothe on Apr 25, 2008 12:35 AM EDT up 0 recs

I know

And he signed a 4 year deal last offseason. Do you see him lasting at catcher till he is 41?

by King Billy Royal on Apr 25, 2008 10:41 AM EDT up 0 recs

Heir

I think this actually helps make the signing of Posada not so terrible! Despite the fact that this will go down as one of the worst contracts in history, Posada will be able to at least mentor the kid during the next two Spring Trainings and possibly even during a potential big league call up.

The internet's latest attempt at understanding the insides of baseball.

by bbdbrandon on Apr 24, 2008 11:47 AM EDT 0 recs

Mentor him?

What’s Posada going to do? Tell him to not be so big? “Be quicker!” “Give a lower target – oh wait you cant!”

Kevin Goldstein said in a chat recently that he’s talked to many scouts and baseball people about Montero and to a man NONE OF THEM thought it was remotely possible he could stick at catcher. He looks like he’s going to be a middle of the order bat but it aint gonna be from behind the plate.

Now the other issue – I used to agree with leaving guys who probably needed to move at the more difficult position in the minors until it becomes absolutely necessary to move them… but Ive changed my mind over the last couple years, especially with Catchers. Look what happened to Conger – a guy who was more likely than Montero to advance as a catcher – though there was pretty much no chance of him making the majors either. Montero is exposed to unnecessary injury by catching all the time, and if he gets hurt from catching like Conger did and misses a year of crucial development time than the Yankees look pretty foolish (though at what?18 he looks like he could take a couple seasons off and still have a good ARL).

Further, why waste time making this guy focus on the craft of catching when you know he’s never going to catch for your big league club? Let him spend as much time as possible hitting – honing his plus plus tools, rather than waste time practicing the tedious and complex craft of catching? If it was a first to third move, that would be different, but youre both wasting time the guy could be using to learn to hit more(not that he needs it apparently!) and exposing him to injury. Not worth it, IMHO. Id move him now. If you want to expand his defensive repertoire go with LF. Even if he’s awful out there, its not as risky or time consuming as catching.

by alskor on Apr 24, 2008 8:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

Well....

Someone has to play catcher. What do you suggest? Putting the most expendable player there?

While catching is difficult and certainly takes a toll, I don’t think you move a talented offensive catcher just because he might get injured.

by b1leper on Apr 25, 2008 10:19 AM EDT up 0 recs

Well...

I personally would probably stick to guys who can actually physically play catcher, but that’s just me. Guys that big cant set low targets for pitchers, have trouble blocking, are more frequently injured, and their reaction times are slower – and before you say he’s a freak athlete let me remind you we are not comparing him to the general populace but to other major league catchers. Its not a ridiculous difference, where youd tell right away after watching him catch for two innings, but over a major league season you’d notice the liabilities IMHO. If you still think Im crazy, find me a major league catcher bigger than Montero. I can think of one who is as tall but weighs less – Joe Mauer. A guy who is 1) The freak of freaks athletically; and 2) is going to have to move off the position in the next couple years by all accounts. Who do you think of as a “big” catcher? Varitek? VMart? Both smaller. Who is the size of an 18 year old Montero?

You argued one point – that it was exposing him to injury. I was making two points – 1) He has no future as a catcher, and we can actually be pretty certain the Yankees dont view him as a catcher; and; 2) BECAUSE he has not future as a catcher its foolish to waste his time learning catching and exposing him to the high injury risk of that position.

Again Hank Conger wasnt going to be a major league catcher but the Halos kept him there. Here’s rotoworld’s write up:

Angels prospect Hank Conger was diagnosed with a slight tear of the labrum in his throwing shoulder.
Conger is expected to rehab for a month before attempting a return. Depending on how the strengthening program takes, he could undergo surgery that would likely cost him the rest of the season. The lost year would likely be very significant to his development, and it shows that the Angels might have guessed wrong when they opted to develop him as a catcher. There’s a good chance he’ll end up at first base or DH anyway, and that wear and tear associated with catching could prevent him from reaching his ceiling as a hitter.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=4434

I think that’s a dead on analysis.

by alskor on Apr 25, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

Well...

By other major league catchers do you mean guys like Joe Mauer and Brian Mccann? Mauer is 6’5” 220 lbs and Mccann is 6’3” 210.

Montero is 6’4” 225lbs, which, ironically, is the same size of Matt Wieters. Should Matt Wieters be moved from catcher? Of course not. He demostrated that he can play the position in college. But what if the same analysis would have been done when he was 19, like Montero? He might be a middling 1b prospect now, instead of the next stud catcher.

Will Montero stick at catcher? Probably not. But obviously the Yankees think he might, otherwise they wouldn’t be evaluating whether he can learn the position. I just think that your “analysis” based on physical size is shortsighted, otherwise, Cal Ripken, Jr, Arod, etc. would have never been looked at as SS.

Finally, although I value rotoworld as a trusted source of fantasy info, I don’t routinely site their injury analysis as “expert” opinion. Blaming Conger’s injury on playing catcher is comical. Do we blame Pujols’ elbow on him playing 1B? OF? 3B? Where should have he played? Would Conger have gotten hurt turning a 3-6-3 double play? Who knows?

by b1leper on Apr 25, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

All those guys

that are the same size as Montero or nearly the same size are better defensive catchers.

Its not JUST his size that demands a move. Its also his defensive skills at catcher.

by alskor on Apr 25, 2008 10:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

well reasoned

never thought about it, but that makes sense.

by scooter on Apr 25, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

hmmm

look guys Jesus Montero is a good hitting prospect, I know I’ve had him on my fantasy baseball farm team for almost a year and a half now. He is however, NOT GOING TO BE A CATCHER.
let me repeat that again for those who didn’t hear the first several times JESUS MONTERO WILL NOT BE A CATCHER.
that said I understand he’s improved in his defensive abilities to the point that he’s exceeded the expectations the Yankees have had on him but his ultimate destination is 1B. the overall consensus on him is that he’ll hit for power, but will he hit for average?

by bk11 on Apr 24, 2008 9:53 PM EDT 0 recs

A little early to write him off

it’s not likely, but not impossible. He’s made a lot of progress.

Bat will be something like Piazza with lower average.

by number_twentyone on Apr 24, 2008 10:00 PM EDT 0 recs

Ah

Good to see we’re already anointing him a future hall of famer.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Apr 24, 2008 11:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

+1

But a question: would he be HOF caliber if he moved to first or DH and put up Piazza’s numbers?

by demondeaconsbaseball on Apr 25, 2008 1:06 AM EDT up 0 recs

uh, no

comps are tossed around like that all the time. It should be a given that it’s a best-case scenario with all the appropriate caveats.

by number_twentyone on Apr 25, 2008 9:04 AM EDT up 0 recs

HOF voting

aren’t logical anyway. so why give a damn, they might vote in David Eckstein or something.

he’s actually doing ok behind the dish so far. and plz. the scouts have been wrong quiet often too. it IS too early to go nuts bout wether he could or could not stay behind the dish.

by RollingWave on Apr 25, 2008 2:01 AM EDT 0 recs

Not too early IMHO

When there is a question about whether a guy can stay at a position in the low minors, 99.99% of the time he ends up moving. Im hard pressed to even think of a guy who was a questionable defender at a position in the low minors and ended up making the majors at that position. Eckstein comes to mind. He’s not a perfect fit anyway, b/c he was pretty much exclusively at 2B all the way through the minors. Also moving him to SS was 1) a team need issue in LAA, 2) Stupid, and 3) Didnt really work out b/c he’s not a good defender over at SS despite Joe Buck’s adulation. All that stuff about him throwing just hard enough is a load of bull, and his range is not good.

And again per KG’s comment, this isnt like one where the scouts are split and some think he can and some think he can’t. Pretty much no one thinks he can stay there. I would be quite surprised if you could even find me a quote of some scout or baseball ops guy who thinks Montero can catch. Literally everything Ive ever read about him has conceded that he cannot stay at catcher. Mike Piazza is not a good comp. Piazza was a pretty good backstop except for his atrocious arm. He had a reputation as being very good at calling games, among other things. Plus, Piazza was big for a catcher and Montero is already listed as bigger, is probably bigger than listed and might not be done growing.

Its intuitive too, that if a guy’s defensive credentials at a position are in question in the minors it only makes sense that his defense would not hold up at the major league level. Remember this, especially fantasy leaguers. Whenever you hear a prospect may not stick at a position you can just assume he will end up moving – they ALWAYS do. Seriously, think back and think of an exception. Theyre far and few between.

Also, there isnt a chance in the world the NY Yankees with the biggest payroll in baseball will go with a poor defender at catcher. Montero’s bat is going to be good enough to carry 1B or DH anyway, IMHO. He’s looking ridiculous. Better than the hype. It really is crazy to put him at risk behind the plate for no reason.

by alskor on Apr 25, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

Alskor

I was wondering if you could provide the direct quote and link regarding Goldstein’s comments stating that not one scout believes he can stay at catcher. I am a frequent reader at BP and hadn’t read that statement. I’m not saying you are wrong, I am just curious what Goldstein exactly stated.

by King Billy Royal on Apr 25, 2008 1:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

It was in a chat

Im looking for it but have to get ready to work. I found this, but this wasnt what I was referring to.

goodwine10 (New York, NY): What do you think Austin Romine’s ceiling is? Do you think he has a chance to be Posada’s successor (assuming the speculation that Montero can’t stay behind the plate is true)?
Kevin Goldstein: Montero’s bat is tremendous, but there’s no way he’s staying back there. Romine project as a big league starter—he’ll never be in Posada’s class (so few can be).

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=403

KG, fwiw, doesnt advocate moving Montero right now like I do. He was asked about that in another chat.

Ill post the other one when I find it.

by alskor on Apr 25, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

Found it

Here it is:

Jesus Montero (New York, NY): Hey Kevin, nobody believed that I could stick at catcher before this season because of my size. Are scouts starting to change their opinions on my defense, and think that maybe I can stay at catcher. And if I do stay at catcher, does that make me a better prospect than Angel Villalona? Gracias
Kevin Goldstein: I’ve never talked a single person who gets paid for their professinal opinion about players who ever really thought or really thinks that Montero can stay at catcher.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=403

That is pretty damning.

by alskor on Apr 25, 2008 2:05 PM EDT up 0 recs