Bailey

Some nice points there, Dave. Personally I rank John’s “Big Three” from 2007 Lincecum, Hughes (despite his horrid start to 2008) and then Bailey.

Hughes and Bailey have the advantage of being a couple of years younger than Lincecum. Hughes has the clear advantage in control. Lincecum seems top have the most stuff of the group, and has actually added two strikeout pitches (change up and slider) more or less at the major-league level. Lincecum is the one who draws the most concern about being injured, but he is actually the one who has been least injured (as in never a sore arm or any perceived need to ice his arm). Lincecum is the guy who two years ago comfortably threw long toss from foul pole to foul pole after his 146th pitch the previous day had been clocked at 95 mph.

Bailey has shown the most control of the three this season and seemingly is developing his secondary, tertiary and perhaps beyond pitches. Lincecum already has four strikeout pitches somewhat proven at the major league level. Lincecum has also shown considerable improvement in his control this season and is now using all four pitches to both lefties and righthanded hitters.

I’m not sure WHAT is wrong with Hughes, but I expect him to bounce back strongly. Keep in mind that less than a year ago he was pitching a no-hitter in one of his first major league starts when he unfortunately injured his groin (IIRC).

What is so exciting about Lincecum is that he has pitched so well despite averaging a hit per inning—which is likely at least 20% more hits than he will average in the long run. Batters are having a hard time making great contact against him, and many of the hits he has yielded have been ground balls up the middle or bloopers between the infield and outfield. The only ball hit extremely hard against Tim came on James Loney’s second double off Tim in Tim’s first game (He actually relieved due to the uncertainty developed by inclement weather.) of the season. And that ball was SMOKED to the track in right center. But Loney’s other double came on a flair to the left field line. Loney actually did a very nice job on that pitch, which was low and outside.

But Tim has yet to yield a homer or even a triple. Each one of the six hits he gave up in Saturday’s win over the Cardinals was a single.

Tim’s key strikeout of Albert Pujols in Saturday’s game was a nice indication of just how well he his pitching. He gave up a bouncer up the middle and a line drive single to left to start the inning. Then he missed in the dirt with a fastball to Albert, threw a beautiful curve that it appeared the umpire missed for ball two, missed with another curve for 3-0, then threw a called strike fastball, a called strike curve and then got Albert to fish on a curve ball in the dirt for strike three.

When the runners advanced to second and third on the ball in the dirt, Tim then struck out the dangerous Rick Ankiel on a slider before getting Todd Walker on a ground ball up the middle to end the inning unscathed.

I haven’t yet charted the game, so it may be that one or more of the “curves” to Albert Pujols that I mentioned was actually a slider. That is the pitch Tim developed THIS winter.

Each of Tim’s five strikeouts came on breaking pitches, after the plurality of his 11 strikeouts of the Cards last Sunday came on his change (the pitch he developed the PREVIOUS winter).

I would love to have ANY of the trio of Lincecum, Hughes or Bailey. But given my choice, I would easily take Lincecum.

Regarding another point you made, Dave, strikeouts aren’t the only indication of how a pitcher pitched, but they do indicate dominance. A poor outing may result from poor location and/or poor luck even when the number of strikeouts is high. But if a guy’s ERA is rising despite his K/BB ratio remaining steady or hopefully even improving, I am less worried about him than if he is somehow not giving up many runs but is seeing his K/BB ratio deteriorate.