Overrated Pitching Prospects

by NovaO on Apr 17, 2008 8:34 PM EDT

I have five that come to mind:

Chuck Lofgren, Indians

Luke Hochevar, Royals

Greg Reynolds, Rockies

Matt Harrison, Rangers

Kevin Mulvey, Twins

The full breakdown with the video breakdowns of these players is at the link below:

http://www.baseball-intellect.com/Articles/most-overrated-pitchers.html

However, I want to talk about the tell signs that all these guys have in common and, which seem to fit the classic description of players usually viewed to be overrated in my view (besides the fact they're all white).

A few of them are:

1. All were drafted relatively high (Round 4 or higher)

2. All have peripheral stats that are less than inspiring

3. All have decent stuff with an assortment of pitches that all rate around average, but nothing that rates as a true out pitch

4. The phrases "pitchability", "feel for pitching", "big game pitcher", "excellent make-up" all apply to the above pitchers in one way or another.

Those four signs (and I'm sure there are others that I'm missing are some basic tell signs of pitchers that rank somewhere in the top-125 (or top-60 for a couple of the players listed above) that they are likely overrated.

Is there any pitchers you think are overrated and do you have any tell signs that you always look for to spot overrated pitching prospects? If so, let's hear them.

0 recs | Comment 29 comments

Read Related

Story-email Email | Print |

Comments

I agree

with all of them except Reynolds…I think he’s pretty damn close to a sure thing to be a solid middle of the rotation type guy (barring injuries).

by smk1363 on Apr 17, 2008 9:45 PM EDT 0 recs

i don't know...

I’m not sure he misses enough bats to get hitters out consistently at the big league level.

www.baseball-intellect.com

by NovaO on Apr 18, 2008 4:02 AM EDT up 0 recs

Ian Kennedy

Not impressed.

by Duece on Apr 17, 2008 10:19 PM EDT 0 recs

re:

I actually like Kennedy, but he is what he is. Anybody that builds him up into more than a middle of the rotation starter I think is stretching it.

www.baseball-intellect.com

by NovaO on Apr 18, 2008 4:03 AM EDT up 0 recs

Which makes him overrated

Kennedy was getting bizz as a top 30 prospect in some areas. He is not..thus heavily overrated

by dlpme77 on Apr 18, 2008 9:50 AM EDT up 0 recs

lol

Hochevar is underrated at this point. Holy bajeezuz.

Whenever this kind of thread comes up he’s almost always the first one named. I was EXPECTING to see his name when I clicked this link.

1. He was not throwing sinker/slider (TWO BEST PITCHES!) for most of last year.
2. When he was, he threw well and had a better ground ball rate (and look at it this year!)
3. This year. Very good in ST, and continuing to do well in AAA.

Seriously, how is this guy “overrated”? Is ANYONE projecting him to be an ace? Even a #2 anymore?

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Apr 17, 2008 10:54 PM EDT 0 recs

re:

I’m going by prospect rankings. Minor league baseball had him top-50. Prospectus had as a 4-star prospect. John had him as a B…that is about where I have him but I think he teeters on the B/B- range. Not sure where Law had him. BA had him #63.

I don’t think I would place him in my top-100 list.

As for your other points, I did not know point #1 so you have a legitimate case there.

I do see he has a nice GB%, but what worries me is his HR rate has been high every year other than his senior year at Tenn. His HR:FB ratio has always been extremely high as well.

This year he has done ok…his BB% is still about 9% and his K% is solid-average (17.6), so the peripherals are so-so, but with only three starts under his belt, the sample size is too small to make any real conclusions.

I don’t think anybody is projecting ace, but people clearly think highly enough of him to put him in their top-70 (or even top-50) prospects overall, which I think overrates him.

www.baseball-intellect.com

by NovaO on Apr 18, 2008 4:27 AM EDT up 0 recs

Huh?

“As for your other points, I did not know point #1 so you have a legitimate case there.”

You didn’t know he wasn’t throwing his slider, yet you rated it a “solid-average” pitch? Why would anyone take your rating seriously when you haven’t even seen it?

You obviously didn’t get it from scouting reports, because that’s been his best pitch since he was at UT and has always been a plus offering.

You strike me as the guy who grades prospects by simply looking at box scores and doing some calculations.

by deezle on Apr 18, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up 0 recs

that is why I didn't have video of the other two pitches...

I got my information for that pitch off various scouting reports and is why I didn’t bother going too in-depth when discussing those pitches. Just googling “Luke Hochevar slider” you will find sources, all with various degrees of credibility, that say he has a plus slider and you will find some that say he has an average to above average slider. Others say plus at times. BA seems to think his curveball is the better of the two breaking pitches. Maybe I should have added plus at times.

I never read he wasn’t throwing his slider, but after doing some research, it wasn’t him not throwing it for most of last year, but it was for half of last year.

Your assumptions about what I do is completely wrong. I take into account video of what I see, I take note of a pitcher’s peripheral stats, and I take into account what other scouting reports have said about Hochevar and then come to a basic conclusion. As I said before, there is a reason why I don’t go into an in-depth break down on his slider. I didn’t have a good feel for it and was going off what I’ve read about it.

But stats do matter. They hold great predictive value and his HR rates are the most worrisome peripheral stat that Hochevar possesses.

www.baseball-intellect.com

by NovaO on Apr 18, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

+1

Hochevar has plus stuff, his command was just off at times last year due to taking a f’n year off from pitching. Yes, he’s 24, but he also has much less mileague on his arm. At this point he’s more underrated than overrated.

I believe he makes his first MLB start this Sunday, so we’ll get to see what he does in the big leagues.

by deezle on Apr 18, 2008 11:53 AM EDT up 0 recs

NA

Nick Adenhart, anyone?

by god allah star on Apr 17, 2008 11:02 PM EDT 0 recs

Mulvey

I don’t know what peripheral stats you’re referring to. Last year he had a FIP of 3.16 with a GB% of 55 in Birmingham before coming up to AAA for two starts. In those two starts (one playoff start), covering 13 shutout innings, he had a FIP of 1.54 with a GB% of 57. This year, in two starts, he has a FIP of 1.84 with a GB% 57. I think those are pretty good peripherals.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 17, 2008 11:21 PM EDT 0 recs

+1

Not overrated. Who’s saying he’s more than a #3 anyways?

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Apr 17, 2008 11:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

which is precisely why is overrated...

Why rate a guy as a top-100 player when his upside is as a #3 starter and there are other pitchers with higher upsides and better peripherals that don’t get as much respect for one reason or another. I guess it boils down to the exact criteria one has when rating prospects.

www.baseball-intellect.com

by NovaO on Apr 18, 2008 4:37 AM EDT up 0 recs

this article...

was written before the season started so I didn’t want to change it after the fact.

But Mulvey was the one guy I was debating myself on. The case against him would be the average K-rate and then solid numbers across the board, but no true plus skill. The 55 GB% is only about 5% better than league average because there are many more ground balls hit in the minor leagues.

And for the 13 innings, very small sample size so the data we have probably isn’t that useful. This year, he has definitely gotten off to a great start including an excellent K% and plus command. But we need more than 2 starts to determine if something has clicked for him.

www.baseball-intellect.com

by NovaO on Apr 18, 2008 4:34 AM EDT up 0 recs

Mulvey last night

Last night was his best start yet: 7 IP 6H 1R 1ER 0BB 9SO. It’s still a small sample size, but for the year, he has 20 Ks and 3 BBs with no HRs in 17 innings for a FIP of 1.41.

I think he has a chance to be better than #3. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff. But he does have plus command, which means more than stuff in my book. When I look at him, I think of a guy like Brain Bannister of the Rays. I have a hard time not seeing a number 2 starter in Bannister.

There just aren’t a lot of guys who project as #1 starters. Those the do are often at lower levels. Hence the top 100 is full of guys who project as #3 starters. The Twins had no #1 starter prospects until they acquired Guerra. And it is considered a pitching-rich organization.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 18, 2008 10:02 AM EDT up 0 recs

Response

“When I look at him, I think of a guy like Brain Bannister of the Rays. I have a hard time not seeing a number 2 starter in Bannister.”

I’m not sure which part of this to correct first.

by mrkupe on Apr 18, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up 0 recs

Bannister's line

Sorry, I said the Rays. He pitches for the Royals. But the rest seems right to me. After pitching very well for a marginal defensive team last year, he’s been arguably the best pitcher in baseball this year.

3 GS 3W 21.0 IP 5 BB 13 K 0.86ERA

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 18, 2008 1:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'm going to try and get some video of him from this year...

And see if I can find anything different he is doing this year that he wasn’t doing last year.

www.baseball-intellect.com

by NovaO on Apr 18, 2008 5:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

TINSTAAPP

They’re all overrated, aren’t they?

At least I think that’s true of any pitcher who hasn’t pitched in at least AAA yet.

Of course, I’m still doing backflips over the awesomeness of the Stockton rotation.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Apr 18, 2008 4:28 AM EDT 0 recs

i don't subscribe to this thinking

Do pitching prospects have a high rate of attrition? Yes. Does that mean TINSTAAPP? No.

There are ways to determine the health risks of a pitcher. There are predictive stats that translate over to the major league level. When you combine relative health, with the necessary peripheral stats, and the stuff to match those stats, I would guarantee the attrition rate is much lower for pitchers that meet that criteria than for pitchers who do not.

But I love the Stockton rotation as well…Fautino de los Santos is sick and a guy I would actually consider underrated heading into the year. I really like Anderson too…you have very contrasting styles of pitching with those two. Then add in Cahill and Rodriguez and you have a stud rotation.

www.baseball-intellect.com

by NovaO on Apr 18, 2008 4:44 AM EDT up 0 recs

Adam Miller

1 word defense: health.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Apr 18, 2008 8:04 AM EDT 0 recs

Not overrated

When healthy he’s awesome. If anything he’s underrated. I think this discussion is based on talent as any of these prospects can be injured at any time. Adam Miller could return shortly which he is supposed to do and not get hurt ever again. I also believe in Santa Claus & the Tooth Fairy so pls take that w/ a grain of salt.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Apr 18, 2008 9:56 AM EDT up 0 recs

High Likelihood in 2008

I totally agree with you about these guys. They could certainly all still reach their prior ceiling, but it is looking less likely by the month, and some the reasons you list may well be spot-on. The problem is, the same variable you list can also be useful for identifying the gems. For example, a guy who has 4 solid pitches and is coachable may also turn out to be much better than the simple sum of his parts. I think makeup matters, the problem is that it’s hard to know when.

Some guys I worry about for 2008 are:

Chris Tillman –
Sean West (same worry heading into last year, before his injury)
Chris Volstad
Tyler Herron
Brett Anderson
Eric Hurley (what happened to that 97 mph FB?)
Michael Bowden

I not sure if they are underrated or overrated, and I’m sure we could argue about it all day long, ala Jed Lowrie. But these are guys who have a balanced repertoire and good-but-not-great peripherals, and have analysts optimistic that their upsides are higher than what they’ve shown thus far.

I suppose you could put Jaime Garcia in this list, too, although his CB sounds like a real out pitch. It hasn’t translated into outstanding peripherals yet, though.

by siddfynch on Apr 18, 2008 10:37 AM EDT 0 recs

Jaime Garcia

If anything, Jaime Garcia is underrated. No one really talks about him at all and he has a good chance to be a #3 starter. He earned any talk he got before last year with a fantastic pro debut and really was pretty good as a 20 year old in AA last year holding hitters to a .245 average and almost K’ing a batter per inning. The injury quieted many of Garcia’s fans, but he’s back on track and is throwing well getting lots of groundballs and strikeouts.

I would say Chris Volstad is overrated. He checked in at #58 on BA’s top 100 after a pretty rough season in the FSL. He wasn’t bad in the Southern League though, but on the year he had 118 Ks and 193 hits allowed in 168 innings. No dominance at all. Same story early on this year. Volstad must be the king of double plays. Maybe Volstad turns into a Jake Westbrook. He’s the only pitcher that comes to mind with minor league numbers similar to Volstad’s.

by UncleBuck44 on Apr 18, 2008 1:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

Whoops

Didn’t see you had Volstad in your list, Sidd. Great minds…

As for Tyler Herron, I don’t know if he is overrated. He’s not really in a group with Brett Anderson, Eric Hurley and Chris Volstad. Many acknowledge he’s not quite a top 100 prospect. Really his peripherals were pretty good in Low A last year. I kind of worry about him too, though. I’ve heard his velocity is in the 87-90 range. In high school, he was a guy that sat around 90-91.

by UncleBuck44 on Apr 18, 2008 1:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

re:

Tillman – I think he’s underrated given his age, the second half he put together last year was excellent, and the park he pitched in last year was an extremely difficult for pitchers

West – I agree, but I don’t think he is rated that highly anymore

Agree on Volstad, and Hurley

Herron I don’t think is rated all that highly right now, so I actually view Herron a underrated.

I can’t really comment on Bowden as I haven’t looked into him too much.

Anderson I like a lot, but I can see the case of him being labeled as overrated because he doesn’t have a power pitcher’s stuff.

Garcia I think is rated correctly by most people. I would have him fall somewhere in the 100 -150 range.

www.baseball-intellect.com

by NovaO on Apr 18, 2008 5:51 PM EDT up 0 recs