MiLB Mock Draft: Pick 10 Houston
by Terry Ryan Jr on Apr 15, 2008 8:21 PM EDT
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PrintA strong case could be made that the Nats should have went with Posey, but Skipworth was probably the best talent left on the board. Next is the Astros, who could use anything really. My guess is a college pitcher like Hunt or Scheppers.
Another note: I took out the Boras guys here, I just cannot see the Astros, who have been along with the Bucs and Twins the teams that have been most stringently adhering to the slotting system going way out of there way for Hosmer or Cole here.
1. Tampa Bay - Aaron Crow-RHP-Mizzou
2. Pittsburgh - Pedro Alvarez-3B-Vandy
3. Kansas City - Tim Beckham-SS-HS Georgia
4. Baltimore - Brian Matusz-LHP-San Diego
5. San Francisco - Justin Smoak-1B-South Carolina
6. Florida - Yonder Alonso-1B-Miami
7. Cincinnati - Gordon Beckham-SS-Georgia
8. Chicago (AL) - Tim Melville-RHP-HS Missouri
9. Washington - Kyle Skipworth-C-HS California
10. Houston -
11. Texas
12. Oakland
13. St. Louis
14. Minnesota
15. Los Angeles (NL)
16. Milwaukee
17. Toronto
18. New York (NL)
19. Chicago (NL)
20. Seattle
21. Detroit
22. New York (NL)
23. San Diego
24. Philadelphia
25. Colorado
26. Arizona
27. Minnesota
28. New York (AL)
29. Cleveland
30. Boston
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houston
i think this one is pretty obvious. houston needs pitchers who can move fast, and they have 2 of the best college hurlers sitting right there for them.
Scheppers
I hope they can get him at #10 in the real draft, also. I like Gordon Beckham out of the position players who could be there, but if he’s gone, Scheppers is the guy I want. A guy as polished as he is with his stuff who still has some upside would be a great pickup with this pick.
scheppers
agreed. i am selfish and want him at 13, but there is no chance he gets there. scheppers is going to be a stud.
by fewgoodcards on Apr 15, 2008 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions
re
After all the shit they took last year from Justice and the media, I could absolutely see them grabbing Hosmer if he gets to them. Keep in mind that nobody has criticized how Drayton handles the draft before now, and I’ve never seen an owner more sensitive to criticism (and more willing to meddle because of it.)
re: criticism
Last year wasn’t the first time Drayton has been criticized, though. Besides receiving criticism for cutting back in the player development budget (including international scouting) several years back, he received a ton of flack for reneging on Drew Stubbs’ contract because of a little pressure from Bud. I hope Draytom’s increased interest is limited to giving the competent men Wade hired more money to work with.
Personally, I’m not big on taking a 1B in the first round, anyways. With the depth at the position in this year’s draft, I’d rather try to grab Ike Davis in the supplemental round.
Disagree
If the Astros have anything in their system, it’s a couple of big arms in Paulino, Norris & James. After Towles graduated to the majors, there isn’t a single decent ML position player left. So I say they go for either Raben or Weeks here. Though if there’s an ultra-toolsy HSer out there, they probably won’t be able to contain themselves.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 16, 2008 11:01 AM EDT reply actions
major league team
there may not be much in the way of position players in the minors, but their major league team is pretty set. weeks could be a fit, but there is no where raben could play. they have carlos lee, hunter pence, and lance berkman in the 3 positions he could possibly play. i know you don’t draft for need at the major league level, but they are severely lacking in the starting rotation and when you have a guy like scheppers that could move pretty quick i think you have to go that way.
by fewgoodcards on Apr 16, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Scheppers
I guess I’m not as big a fan of his as you are. Also, Berkman’s contract ends in ‘10 with a club option for ‘11 so it’s possible that Lance won’t be around in a couple of years. Then you add 2-3 years onto El Caballo’s frame and I see him as a 1B or DH by then. Finally, their rotation isn’t as bad as you think they are. Wandy and Backe could be good #3/4 types which is what I think Scheppers’ ceiling is personally.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 16, 2008 1:04 PM EDT reply actions
scheppers
i hope the rest of the teams in this range like scheppers as much as you do. personally, he is the guy i really want the cardinals to get b/c i think he is a future #2 starter. he has pretty good control of a plus fastball and 2 above average breaking balls. plus he has a nice frame that is still a little projectable. i think he is the third bes college pitcher in the draft, and the gap isn’t as wide between him and the top 2 as you may think.
by fewgoodcards on Apr 16, 2008 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
don't forget
You mention Berkman’s contract expiring soon, but you neglect that Oswalt’s will possibly end at the same time (‘11 w/ option for ‘12). The difference is that Berkman may want to play a few more years after his current contract, Oswalt doesn’t. None of the guys that you have mentioned (Backe, Wandy, Norris, Paulino, and James) can fill that role. You don’t like Scheppers upside, but he has at least as much as the other guys (Paulino is the only one close). At this pick, you have to pick a potential difference maker and Weeks and (esp) Raben aren’t that guy.
added
With the number of high picks that Houston has (5 in the first 3+ rounds), you shouldn’t have to reach when you can add comparable players a little later in the draft. Weeks won’t last to 38 for them, but Raben could. If not, there are plenty of guys who would present a reasonable facsimile.
Bias
With the dearth of OF talent at both the HS & College level, I doubt Raben will be there either. I also have a personal bias against pitching prospects in general and would much rather have more hitting in my minor leagues than pitching. Mainly due to the attrition rate pitchers have as compared to hitters. Plus an everyday hitter will play 5 times more a year than even the best pitcher so to me that’s a more valuable commodity. Mahalo
Matt
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 17, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
the level
of attrition is an argument FOR drafting a pitcher at 38. You’re not picking him super-high and spending that pick and 2 mil on him.
If you attrition is a concern you should aim to draft many pitchers in this area in the draft so that you can get one or two good ones to emerge for your MLB team every couple years. Thats why you need more pitching than hitting.
You can’t just ignore half the game bc of injuries
You’ve got to get pitchers from somewhere!
They command exorbitant sums in free agency and the trade market… so drafting and signing is the best way to get them. Also, investing 40 mil in an FA makes attrition hurt you more than if you just waste 900k and the 38th pick on him.
Plus, it seems like Raben is PART of that lack of OF talent. 264 with 4 homers for a bat-oriented guy? It looks like hes going after a lesser version of Jeff Larish’s career at this point, and Larish is/was a better athlete and a better hitter at his best.
And an everyday hitter will play everyday (duh), the flipside of that is that the starting pitcher has the most impact on a game. I’d say their influence on your season is about equal
No Stats
To back this up but I think it’s easier to find premium pitching prospects in the mid to late rounds of the draft than it is to draft hitting in those rounds. Also, I was arguing against picking Scheppers at 10 or 13 originally. If he’s still around at 38, by all means pick him up there. Finally, even the best pitchers need some offensive support to win games, they can’t do it all by themselves. That’s why even as good as Cain & Lincecum are, neither one will ever get close to 20 wins on that Giants’ squad.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 17, 2008 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
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