Justin Upton

by Bravesin07 on Apr 12, 2008 5:52 PM EDT

If he continues putting up these numbers the whole year, would he be considered in the conversation of top 5 players in the game. If he continues like this, he will have young Vlad Guerrero numbers this year and that's .330 40 120 at age 20. Could he actually be better than Griffey Jr and possibly A-Rod at age 20. Remember Upton had similar numbers to A-Rod at age 19-20. It's early though, but he might put it all together this year.

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he is really good

i won't yell at you for this diary, because i can see him actually winning an MVP this year... he has so much poise and swagger it is ridiculous... honestly, he is that good

by daveh33 on Apr 12, 2008 6:03 PM EDT 0 recs

He's a natural

The only thing Upton needed in the bigs was enough at-bats to figure it out and get comfortable. The August promotion last year was the right thing just to get some of the adjustment period out of the way. And now the D-Backs are reaping the benefits of it.

by sdbaseballfan on Apr 12, 2008 6:29 PM EDT 0 recs

Not a Rookie Post

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/3/17/16294/6319#

In the preseason, John posted a Not A Rookie edition of Justin Upton with projections.

Poster rwperu34 had this great post about Justin Upton and went into detail about some of the stud 20 year olds throughout history.

20 yo MLB regulars By Rwperu34

"Talking with a friend, he didn't understand why I think Upton has the EV of a bad #2 or a good #3 OF in a 12 team league. He said he didn't think Upton had that kind of EV because A-Rod was the only 20 year old in the last 40 years to be a true superstar. I estimated that there have been 10 or less 20 year old regulars in the last 25 years (my era), and proceeded to name them.

Year, Name, 19PA, AVG/OBP/SLG, $
2003-Miguel Cabrera, 0, .268/.325/.468, $2
1998-Adrian Beltre, 214, .275/.352/.428, $4
1997-Andruw Jones, 113, .231/.329/.416, $10
1996-Alex Rodriguez, 208, .358/.414/.631, $62
1996-Edgar Renteria, 0, .309/.358/.399, $8
1992-Ivan Rodriguez, 288, .260/.300/.360, $0
1990-Ken Griffey Jr., 506, .300/.366/.481, $15
1989-Gary Sheffield, 89, .247/.303/.337, $0
1988-ROberto Alomar, 0, .266/.328/.382, $7
1986-Ruben Sierra, 0, .264/.302/.476, $2

19 PA is plate appearances heading into age 20 season.
$ is how much they would be worth in my league, not counting for era adjustment, but prorated to 600 PA. The four guys from 1986-1990 would certianly have been more valuable in the lower run scoring environment.

I was able to name nine of these guys off the top of my head. Renteria was the one that slipped. The most striking thing about this list is how many of these guys are headed to Cooperstown. Five guys have already punched their ticket (Jones, A-Rod, I-Rod, Griffey, Alomar), one (Sheffield) has a really good chance, and two more (Renteria, Cabrera) are working on strong cases. That's eight out of the last ten 20 year old regulars with good shots at the Hall.

As for Upton, I am cautiously optimistic about this year. Most likely he'll have some struggles, but the superstar outcome is in there. He's more highly acclaimed than the average of this group at this age. The way I look at it, he's just a rookie (even though he's not) and his expectation shouldn't be any different relative to their skill set than any other rookie. Rookies can struggle, but they can also come up huge. For every Alex Gordon who struggles there's a Ryan Braun who explodes. Other rookies over the last few years that have come up huge include Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols.

The last thing I'll leave you with are some of the all time great seasons by 20 year olds.

1929-Mel Ott, 724, .328/.449/.635
1956-Frank Robinson, 0, .290/.379/.558
1965-Tony Conigliaro, 439, .269/.338/.512
1939-Ted Williams, 0, .327/.436/.609
1955-Al Kaline, 555, .340/.421/.546
1952-Mickey Mantle, 384, .311/.394/.530
1907-Ty Cobb, 537, .350/.380/.468 (49 SB)
1928-Jimmy Foxx, 186, .328/.416/.548
1958-Orlando Cepeda, 0, .312/.342/.512

It looks like a 20 year old is an MVP candiate about once every ten years, so we're due:)"

by sdbaseballfan on Apr 12, 2008 6:46 PM EDT 0 recs

Nice analysis...One question...

What is your case for saying Andruw Jones has "punched" his ticket for the hall? He still needs 5 -7 more good years IMO. And with what he did last year and so far this year I don't think that is a guarantee. He may limp his way to 500 homers, but that doesnt carry the weight it used to. '

by tt68 on Apr 12, 2008 7:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

Andruw isn't HOF yet

He needs a couple more 30 HR seasons. Right now he is eating his way out of centerfield and reminds me of Ruban Sierra.

by Bravesin07 on Apr 12, 2008 7:19 PM EDT 0 recs

Andruw

Funny how this was not an issue when he was on the Braves

by mtk52983 on Apr 12, 2008 8:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

No HoF

I don't think he gets in. Hell, Beltre will have a better number than Jones when its all said and done. 3,000 hits. Jones is done.

by kennythered on Apr 14, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

No I hated him last year

He blew last year and I hate his stupid grin even when he sucked.

by Bravesin07 on Apr 12, 2008 8:55 PM EDT 0 recs

The homer Upton hit today

was a bomb. His bat speed is unreal. Is it just me or does he seem to resemble Ryan Braun at the plate?

by nyy601 on Apr 13, 2008 12:17 AM EDT 0 recs

I Keep Thinking He Reminds Me Of...

Manny Ramirez, with more raw bat speed. Fairly straight up stance, high bat, smooth and quick stroke, not a "pure HR" swing, and advanced K-zone judgment.

"I hate the people that love me, and they hate me!"

by Brett Keith on Apr 13, 2008 1:15 AM EDT up 0 recs

Upton Bomb

I was fortunate enough to be at that game. Barry Bonds has been my favorite player for over 20 years, and I've never seen him hit a regular season homerun. My new favorite, Upton, hits one in the first game I see him play:)

by rwperu34 on Apr 14, 2008 2:40 AM EDT up 0 recs

Delmon Young or Justin Upton

This might a stupid question but who does everyone think has a better future? I know both of them have started the season off in totally opposite directions but I was just interested to see what everyone thinks because I have thought about this comparison for the last couple of days.

by ahope on Apr 13, 2008 10:20 PM EDT 0 recs

Decent Comparison

because both were #1 picks but Upton is younger and has been better. I would take him easily.

by supermets on Apr 13, 2008 10:31 PM EDT 0 recs

Would you....

rate Delmon as a better defender, especially with his cannon of an arm? Does Upton project to be a base stealer?

by ahope on Apr 13, 2008 10:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

No

Delmon has an absolute cannon, but he's not particularly fast and doesn't take great routes to the ball. If not for Chris Young, Upton would be a CFer and a very good one at that. Delmon is an absolutely terrible in CF.

The only tool or skill that Delmon has that's better than Upton's is his arm. And it's not like Upton has a noodle. He's got a great arm too. Hit mid-90's in HS with his fastball. It's a 70 on the 20-80 scale. Everything else, Justin does better, and does most things a lot better.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Apr 13, 2008 10:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'd Say...

Delmon is probably a better defender right now, mostly because Justin has only been a full time OF since the beginning of 2006, and last year was his first time in RF. Justin has better speed, and if his arm isn't as good, it's not far off, so he could certainly pass Delmon in the not so distant future. As for being a base stealer, I think he'll be one because he'll be on base quite a bit, and has great speed. He's still learning how to steal bases, but I think he'll be a consistantly in the 20-30 range, and COULD have a season or more of 40.

"I hate the people that love me, and they hate me!"

by Brett Keith on Apr 13, 2008 10:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

Juptin

EASILY.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Apr 14, 2008 8:52 AM EDT up 0 recs

re

Upton is a stud. Thank god my snakes got him for (hopefully) the next decade or so. An OF with Upton and CY is going to be 30-30 for the next ten years

by ScottAZ on Apr 14, 2008 10:38 AM EDT 0 recs