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Carlos Gomez

Wow.  He looked really good.  Twins fans are going to forget Johan Santana quicker than most pundits would have you believe following that trade.

 

 

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Gomez

I'm a big fan of Gomez but, come on, one game does not solve Gomez's plate discipline problems nor does it erase a multiple Cy Young award winner.

Gomez is going to be good and had a great game last night. But let's not pile it on the kid: he's learning as he's doing.

by Lunkwill Fook on Apr 1, 2008 9:57 AM EDT   0 recs

Quicker

Do the Twins even care about plate discipline? 1st inning, 1st and 2nd one out. Delmon Young swings at the first pitch - out. Craig Monore (question answered) does the same - out.

Gomez fits in there and he will be good enough for the Twins fans to move on from Santana, and he will prove to be a very good player.

he plays the game at a different speed. Don't overlook the safety net that bunitng for singles and infield hits will give to his AVG.

by faketeams on Apr 1, 2008 10:30 AM EDT   0 recs

That's true....

But if he doesn't get his walks up a little, it won't matter much. He doesn't really project to be a high enough average hitter to cover for a low walk rate.

And just because you're the best player on a team of mediocre hitters doesn't mean you're exceptional.

by Lunkwill Fook on Apr 1, 2008 10:58 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Remember Game 1 of the ALDS against the As?

Barry Zito can't find the strike zone with a map early, and the Twins are swinging early in the count, they could have strolled around the bases at will but kept on swinging at Zito's slop. Ended up losing as Zito eventually got his control back but even then they were constantly making first or second pitch outs.

Stupid Twins.

"I got my pregnant wife (the Yankee fan) with me. Hoping my kid learns to kick her everytime the Mets score." -Schifftis-

by future on Apr 1, 2008 11:36 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Gomez

iiiiii dunno.
something about him just screams .260 with 40 walks this year

by god allah star on Apr 1, 2008 2:13 PM EDT   0 recs

You know what?

If he hits, say, .270 with 40-50 walks this year, it's a success. That'll let him steal 50 bases and probably get close to 100 runs scored. Considering the lack of time he's had in the minors, I think the Twins would take that.

by Lunkwill Fook on Apr 1, 2008 2:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Growth

That'd be his professional high. If he hits 260 with 40 walks, he's going to steal 60. The local paper had a piece on him and he said he wouldn't say what his personal goals were like stealing 90 or something, but he had them.

by faketeams on Apr 1, 2008 3:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

agreed

but he shouldn't be leading off.

by god allah star on Apr 1, 2008 2:22 PM EDT   0 recs

Gomez did draw a walk last night

and struck out on a 3-2 fastball that was ball 4. He needs work but, he could be Rios in a few year with more speed.

by Bravesin07 on Apr 1, 2008 5:00 PM EDT   0 recs

lol

here we go again. The guy got two hits (one ground ball down the line and a bunt) and you're back on his nuts basically saying he will be be a young Barry Bonds.

by nyy601 on Apr 1, 2008 9:15 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Gomez is fast

but he can't hit. Two hits on opening day notwithstanding, he's got a lot to prove this year. Honestly, I don't think he's ready. Be prepared for sub-Juan Pierre ickiness this season, and there's no guarantee he ever gets better than that.

I have grave doubts about whether he's going to set a career high in walk rate in his rookie season. If he hits .260, his OBP will probably be in the neighborhood of .325-.330. It's not out of the question that he'll steal 60 bases with a .330 OBP, but it's unlikely.

Where Anne hath a will, Anne Hathaway.

by woodstein52 on Apr 1, 2008 11:01 PM EDT   0 recs

gomez

I think he looks good through 2 games.

So far tonight he's only 1 for 4 but he hasn't K's as of yet. He had a nice base hit, and he had 2 sharply hit outs.

He's not getting overmatched at the dish, thats forsure. He looks a hell of a lot more confident at the plate then morneau right now, I know that much....he looks awful.

by hotshotschamp on Apr 1, 2008 11:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He needs to stay

sober once and awhile.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Apr 1, 2008 11:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

.330 OBP, 60 steals

would make him almost exactly Juan Pierre, albeit with better defense and a little more power (but lower BA). in other words, who's excited about this for right now if this is his upside?

by bleedjaxblue on Apr 2, 2008 2:24 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Gomez has a HUGE upside !?1?

We're talking about a 22 yr old for God's sake. I mean, really. The guy will hit a hell of a lot more homers than Pierre and eventually will become an .800 ops plus guy. He'll be closer to Carl Crawford than Juan Pierre.

Bank on it.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Apr 2, 2008 10:00 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

+1

How is a .330 OBP with 60 steals his upside? Bleedjaxblue should read some more scouting reports and discover that his upside has been compared to Carlos Beltran and not Juan Pierre. If Gomez can improve his power a few years down the road then LOOK OUT!

by King Billy Royal on Apr 2, 2008 11:56 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

LOL

So all Gomez has to do to be like Beltran is:

1) Learn how to field. He takes horrible lines and makes dumb mistakes
2) Learn plate discipline. We all know how easy this is
3) Get some power. Where is Canseco when you need him
4) Hit for good average
5) Steal bases at a crazy percentage. The highest ever?
6) Are you actually still reading this? Or just regretting the comp?

by pedrophile on Apr 2, 2008 10:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Upside does not equal most likely

Let me state that upside does not equal most likely projection. Stating that .330 OBP with 60 steals as upside is not accurate according to almost all legit prospect evaluators. While there are obvious flaws in Gomez's game, most scouts agree that the potential is there for him to be a superstar. Do I think he reaches his upside, probably not but he will be a solid if not spectacular major league player. Now to answer your questions.

1. Personally I think he is a solid fielder. The 2008 BA Handbook states: "Gomez has game-changing speed and a well above average-arm, tools that help make him a premium defender in center field". Do you have stats to support your argument that he takes horrible lines and makes dumb mistakes?

2. When Beltran came up he wasn't very good at taking a walk either. He has increased from 46 walks in his rookie season to 95 walks last season. So yes, I think Gomez can do this.

3. Many scouts believe that with Gomez's size (6'4", 195 lbs) he will increase his power. It may not happen but then again I state that his UPSIDE is to be Beltran. That is much different to stating that he will BECOME Beltran. To quote the 2008 BA Handbook: "He also has excellent bat speed that leads to projections of at least average power, if not more"

4. Gomez has hit for average in the minors, hitting around .280 the last two years while not being old for his level. What was Beltran's minor league average: .268.

5. Steal bases at a crazy percentage? Yep, I would say he can do that.

6. I am definitely not regretting the comp because I never made a comp. I stated what his UPSIDE is and not what I think he will become.

by King Billy Royal on Apr 2, 2008 10:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

so you want to make me work?

1. You quote scouting then ask for stats on something for which stats don't exist. There have been many quotes about his terrible lines. Or you can watch him.

2. Gomez had 32 BB to 88K and 27BB to 97 K in his almost full seasons. Both with 120 games. That projects to 43 BB and 117K and 36BB and 129K. All at A ball and AA ball.

Beltran had 46 to 99 (120 games) and 48 and 69 (99 games). This projects to 61BB and 122 K and 77 BB and 111 K.

Gomez went from a 3K/BB ratio to a 4K/BB ratio. Beltran went from a 2K/BB ratio to a 1.44K/BB.

Gomez had horrible discipline. Beltran had excellent discipline and improving.

3. He had 8 and 7 homers those two years. Being tall doesn't mean you have Beltran upside. That would mean C.Young (pitcher SD) has at least Bonds power upside. There should be some reality in his upside. They state he should have average and possibly more. It's a HUGE stretch to assume that more is 40 bombs in a year.

fyi: as Beltran had improving discipline, his power went from 11 to 19 and his batting average spiked.

4. He hit for 275 and 281 in the minors. Typically players average goes down as they move up. And players with contact problems typically have even more problems maintaining their average. I predict .260 unless he improves his game.

5. It's easier to steal in the minors. He had 64 and 24 caught (OUCH) and 41 and 9.Quite good. fyi: Beltran didn't have the best stealing percent in the minors. It's something he improved in the majors. Obviously Gomez could do the same if he has those instincts.

6. You comped his upside. In a miracle he could do this. But it's definitely not a fair comp. Why not just give everyone Barry Bonds comps? It's possible.

by pedrophile on Apr 3, 2008 12:10 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Questions

In regards to Gomez's 'poor fielding' can you please provide some reputable sources who substantiate your claims. I have used BA to back up my assertion that he can handle the OF and would appreciate it if you could quote a source to back up your argument.

Height isn't the point about him increasing his power. It is the fact that he is expected to fill out into his body size and put on weight and muscle. It may not happen but I am just repeating what many scouts have said. Even BA believes that with his bat speed alone he can increase his power totals.

For the most part young players who are playing at high levels tend to have underwhelming production against older competition. Gomez is still very young and improving every year. Like Beltran it is very possible (although not a guarantee) that he hits for a much higher average in the major leagues then in the minor leagues.

I am not saying you are wrong Pedro. Instead it is nice to get into a civilized discussion about a very controversial prospect. Personally I see Gomez becoming someone along the lines of Marquis Grissom in his prime which is an exceptional ballplayer.

by King Billy Royal on Apr 3, 2008 12:50 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

well

As for the fielding I never said he was a bad fielder. Just his instincts/decision making. I'll try to find a few quotes:
Carlos Gomez went 2-for-5 with an RBI triple, a steal and two runs scored Friday against the Blue Jays.
Gomez had a particularly ugly game in the field on Wednesday, but it doesn't appear that he's lost any ground in the battle for center so far. He's 4-for-18 with three steals and just two strikeouts.
rotoworld

That is the only one I can find now. I know I read several from different sources that listed his mistakes in the field. Of course he can overcome it.

Yeah, he'll probably fill out. But again that is just about physical tools. He has good batspeed but not great bat-speed. If he had bat speed like Milledge or Upton I would predict much more in spite of his horrible plate discipline.

Yeah, he is young and can improve. No-one is implying he can't.

The thing is - for me - both comps and upsides should always be within a reasonable realm of attainability. Otherwise we might as well give everyone crazy upsides.

oh, and just because his upside is a Grissom it doesn't mean in any way that he can't achieve well beyond his upside.

No-one thought Beltran would be this good.

by pedrophile on Apr 3, 2008 1:00 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Throws to the plate

I'm pretty sure that was the game where he was throwing out of control to the plate trying to throw guys out. The throws were off by quite a bit. That happens when players are young and get overexcited. He just needs to slow down a little bit to make a more accurate throw.

Thats one example, keep trying.

by clutchhit20 on Apr 4, 2008 2:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

OH MY F--KING GOD!!!!

why can nobody read?!!??!

i said his upside for RIGHT NOW. as in THIS YEAR.

his UPSIDE for THIS YEAR is Juan Pierre-type production. that's a fourth outfielder. no team wants to be starting that. i was really responding to the few people in this thread who'd made it sound like he'd be good if he could hit .270, walk 40 times, and steal 60 bases.

you want to know what i WASN'T talking about? long-term. you want to know who he DOESN'T compare to RIGHT NOW? Carlos Beltran.

incidentally, prepare to be disappointed if you think Carlos Gomez is Carlos Beltran in the making. Carl Crawford is enough of a stretch.

also, please refrain from telling me to "read some more scouting reports." thanks. killer job other than that.

by bleedjaxblue on Apr 3, 2008 12:46 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Differing Opinion

Pierre has no extra base power. If Gomez can hit 10 hr, .270, with 60 SB, and great defense in centerfield I would say that is much better 'upside' then Juan Pierre. Pierre's problem is that he has ZERO power and he can't handle centerfield. As a CF he was passable (although not by much), but as a LF he is absolutely terrible.

by King Billy Royal on Apr 3, 2008 1:18 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

upside....

....isn't "right now" -- it's the future. for right now, Gomez is Pierre, which is something the 2008 Twins shouldn't be excited about.

agreed that Gomez has a huge upside, which is what differentiates him from Pierre. however, i'd tell you to bank on him NOT reaching it. i think, ultimately, he won't be a player that's that similar to Pierre OR Crawford.

by bleedjaxblue on Apr 2, 2008 12:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

thanks for re-clarifying

i misread your post in part. however, i think he'll be good for 10 long balls this year to go with 50 steals. at age 22. so, you're definitely correct in saying that he won't ever be similar to juan pierre. i'd have to strongly disagree with your prediction. i'm assuming that's based on a gut feeling considering you stated above that he has a quote "huge upside".

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Apr 2, 2008 3:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

OK

like i said, he'll have a little more power than Pierre. 10 homers sounds pretty optimistic for this year (he's never hit 10 in a season before), but it's definitely doable.

"upside" is a tricky word. to me, it means, "what could this player become if everything (within reason) turned out right?"

it says nothing about probabilities.

when i look at Gomez, his skillset screams "bust" to me (i think the Brian L. Hunter comp i read on this site recently -- i forget who wrote it -- is an excellent one). the "skills" he has that are relatively likely to come to fruition are relatively useless ones when they come in isolation (such as speed). the skills that are pure projection at this point that would turn him into a "five-tool player" (which is why i say he has a high upside) are not ones i think he has much of a chance of gaining (hitting, power).

so what, if not "gut feeling" is your prediction based on?

by bleedjaxblue on Apr 2, 2008 5:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

furthermore

to state that the twins shouldn't be excited right now about carlos gomez, a 22 yr old w/ quote "huge upside" is absurd.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Apr 2, 2008 3:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

that was really addressed....

....to the people who thought that this year's production, in isolation, was going to be worthwhile.

considering the favorable projections match up pretty closely to Juan Pierre's stats from last year -- and it's fairly unanimous that Pierre shouldn't be a starting outfielder -- i have trouble seeing why anybody would talk about Gomez's contributions at the moment.

as for his "upside" -- well, like i said, i was addressing his CURRENT PRODUCTION. not sure how else you'll try to sneak the future into the conversation, but it's not a part of it.

by bleedjaxblue on Apr 2, 2008 5:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Upside

To be frank, I think two things:

1) A Carlos Beltran comp is insane. I don't see that kind of power in his body, and I haven't seen anybody I take seriously suggest that he's ever going to hit 35 homers in a season. ESPECIALLY playing for the Twins, who seem to be allergic to young players who swing for the fences.

2) If the Twins want to see Gomez reach his upside, they would be wise to let him season another years in the minors. His wouldn't be the first career ruined by the bad lessons of being brought up to the majors too early, and they're not going anywhere this season.

Where Anne hath a will, Anne Hathaway.

by woodstein52 on Apr 2, 2008 12:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

For the record:

When Carlos Beltran was 22, he cracked 22 homers and slugged .454. In the major leagues.

Where Anne hath a will, Anne Hathaway.

by woodstein52 on Apr 2, 2008 12:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

reply

this reply probably should have been left for king billy royal as i never said anything about carlos beltran.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Apr 2, 2008 3:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Sorry

Oops.

Where Anne hath a will, Anne Hathaway.

by woodstein52 on Apr 3, 2008 12:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

no need to apologize

if he ever hits for that type of power i'll be doing back flips. i'd be ecstatic w/ carl crawford lite.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Apr 3, 2008 1:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Comp

How about Alex Rios? Both are around the same size physically right?

by faketeams on Apr 3, 2008 9:17 AM EDT   0 recs

comp

I can see where you're coming from somehwat but Gomez is going to steal a bunch more bags and probably hit less homeruns. I assume Rios will be upper 20's possibly low 30's and he was a guy that didn't hit more than 11 homeruns until the age of 25 with most of those seasons posting single digits. I like the Crawford comp the best.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Apr 3, 2008 3:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree with the Crawford comp

as a best case scenario. It's a possible one though - him becoming Beltran or Rios really isn't

by OldProspects on Apr 3, 2008 3:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

gomez

gets another 2 hits today, scores a run.

He's been probably their best hitter so far. He is exciting i will say that much.

by hotshotschamp on Apr 3, 2008 4:25 PM EDT   0 recs

Get out the straight jacket

The guy Gomez reminds me most of? Hanley Ramirez...right down to being traded for an ace and thrust into a starting role before he was "ready". Obviously Ramirez hit the top 5% of his range of outcomes, but there is no way you will convince me that it isn't in there for Gomez.

A huge point in favor of Gomez? His age relative to league gap was by far the biggest of any position player that made my prospect list. Another? His K% and BB% improved in the jump from AA to AAA.

The chances of him being a productive major leaguer is about 100%, and a productive starter, if only in a Coco Crisp/Juan Pierre kind of way is about 90% with a ceiling of about the best player in baseball. This guy is a top flight prospect, coming out at #14 on my preseason list. With the win of the starting CF job, I would have moved him into the top ten, maybe even as high as #3.

by rwperu34 on Apr 3, 2008 4:52 PM EDT   0 recs

very interesting

would you mind listing your revised top 10?

by TheFranchise9 on Apr 3, 2008 5:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Top Prospects

I just posted my top 58 position prospcets from the preseason. I didn't do an official list, but I've pretty much settled on Gomez between #3 Rasmus and #5 Maybin.

by rwperu34 on Apr 3, 2008 6:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ceiling of the best player in baseball?

I mean, isn't that just stretching it a littleeeee bit there? I know the mancrushes on Gomez are all the rage here, but do you really think he's going to put up the kinda production to place him in the like "top 5 best in the game right now" kind of discussion? I mean, if he ever hits more than 20 homers, I'll be pretty shocked. You can talk all you want about filling out his body, but when it took him over 1400 professional at bats to get that first 20 in his career...if he somehow seriously improves his plate discipline (which, as stated, is a dicey proposition with the Twins), maybe he'll be taken seriously enough to work out pitches he can drive. As it is now, he's very rarely going to get thrown anything over the plate, because he'll swing at most things anyway.

Also, does "small sample size mean anything to people here? OMG, he's 4/11 with a walk this year! Congrats, AJ Pierzynski has a .625 AVG and a 1.792 OPS. Does that mean he's going to break out this season? Doubtful. Stats and impressions from all of 3 games mean nothing. Cite whatever proof you want, but don't use the idea that he went 2/3 with a walk on opening day as a sign he's a stud.

When asked why I was a Mets fan, I responded, "pain is my lifeblood."

by wrightHOF on Apr 3, 2008 10:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

not 20

30 homers. I reread that, and realized that my logic didn't make perfect sense. However, I think it's very hard to be considered a "best player in the game" without at least coming close to 30, no matter how many bases you steal.

When asked why I was a Mets fan, I responded, "pain is my lifeblood."

by wrightHOF on Apr 3, 2008 10:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

+1(000)

gomez probably has a 15% chance of becoming carl crawford.

I'll warm up with you anytime

by ufoboy90 on Apr 4, 2008 1:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

conversely

he also has a chance of becoming more than carl crawford. no?

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Apr 4, 2008 4:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No

Not really, no

by OldProspects on Apr 6, 2008 12:00 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

yes, really

he absolutely has a chance of hitting 15 homers and swiping 50-60 bags. that's carl crawford.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Apr 7, 2008 11:41 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That's what makes this so ironic

I agree with you that he has a chance to be Carl Crawford. I think it's more likely that he'll never hit quite as well as him - if Crawford usually gets an OPS in the area of .825, I think Gomez is more likely to get a .775 with similar steal totals (Chone Figgins in the outfield?) - but I certainly think that Gomez will be a valuable player and maybe even an excellent one.

Where I disagree with some (note that word: some) of his supporters here is the suggestion that he will be Carl Crawford or could be significantly better than him. There is no reasonable argument at this time that Gomez will be a Hanley Ramirez or an Alex Rios with speed or one of the best players in the game, all arguments that some (again, some) people on this board have said. It is true that this is theoretically possible. It is also highly unlikely and nobody has made any effort to prove while this unlikely circumstance would come to pass. Considering this confidence in Gomez's greatness appears to be new-found I can only assume that it comes from his outstanding performance in his first few games. Massive sample size issues aside (20-odd atbats really shouldn't change that many opinions), Gomez's production in those atbats came primarily from lots of balls falling in - i.e. an unusually high BABIP. If his walk totals or his power totals would have all of a sudden shot up, I could kind of understand people getting more excited about him (maybe he really is beginning to improve dramatically and so forth) - but that isn't what happened. And sure enough, as his BABIP goes back to earth, these posts are going to stop. And when his performance drops to this normal level, I will still believe as I did earlier that Carlos Gomez is a good player with a chance to be an excellent one a la Carl Crawford but a more likely future as a decent hitter with outstanding speed

by OldProspects on Apr 7, 2008 1:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hanley Ramirez

Here's the thing about comparing every toolsy young guy who comes down the pike to Hanley Ramirez: it is, for lack of a better word, irresponsible. Ramirez is, if not unique, so unusual as to make comparing minor leaguers to him essentially worthless. You could say "he reminds me of Hanley Ramirez" of 15-20 guys in the minors, and there would be no way to test whether you were wrong or right -- but the odds would be fantastically against your being right. No matter the player. The odds were astronomical against the idea that Ramirez would do what Ramirez did; the odds remain astronomical against any player doing it. It's like comparing every power hitter who doesn't walk to Sammy Sosa: you've proved that it's possible that player X will become a huge star at a late date, but you haven't really convinced anybody that it's likely -- because a player who is exactly the same as Sammy Sosa does not become SAMMY SOSA at least 9 times out of 10, if not more. The idea that Gomez will excel at the major leagues immediately after being a poor hitter in the minors is not impossible, but the mere existence of Hanley Ramirez does not make it even remotely likely.

Note what I am not doing here: I am not denying that Gomez may one day be a very good player, though I have to say that I will remain skeptical until such a time as he has demonstrated the ability to do anything other than play defense and hit for a modicum of power. I am not saying that is impossible for Gomez to be a worthwhile regular this season, or even that there is the barest possibility that he will be a star this season. But equally I refuse to be swayed by four games in which Gonzalez has gotten a few hits and managed to draw a walk in 17 plate appearances. For reference:

Player A: .575/.575/.724
Player B: .529/.556/1.059
Player C: .375 /.412 /.438

Player A is Yuniesky Betancourt. And just so we don't get worked up about the fact that he's a youngish sort of player who could be breaking out, player B is AJ Pierzynski. Player C is Gonzalez.

As far as a ceiling of being the best player in baseball? I guess I don't know enough to comfortably handicap that, but if you check out the minor league performances of a selection of the best players in baseball, you'll find that almost every single one of them had performed better than Gomez at some level by the age of 22, some of them in the major leagues. Carlos Gomez may be tallish and incredibly fast, but his learning curve has been nothing like that so far, and he doesn't even have the Hanley Ramirez excuse, "He was bored in the minors." Just checking the top of last year's VORP list, the closest thing to an exception were Magglio Ordonez, who was a late-ish bloomer who had already displayed greater home run power than Gomez has, and the aforementioned Ramirez, who is essentially useless as a comp for anybody, in my mind.

To be the best player in the majors, Gomez will have to develop significantly in every phase of the offensive game that does not involve his speed. He does not walk, he does not hit for power, his career high in batting average is .281. It is not impossible that all of these tools develop; it would be an improbable outcome if at least one, possibly two of them did not. That is what gives Gomez a good shot of becoming a major league regular. It strikes me as wildly unlikely that he will ever consistently get his OPS over .900, which is what would be necessary for a good-fielding CF to be in the "best player in the game" territory.

I'll gladly admit that I'm wrong if I turn out to be wrong, but it sometimes strikes me that people get more than a little unreasonable when it comes to Carlos Gomez, who strikes me as likely to be a respectable ballplayer, perhaps occasionally sliding into star territory because of his defense, and a thousand-to-one shot at being a superstar.

Whew. That was long.

Where Anne hath a will, Anne Hathaway.

by woodstein52 on Apr 4, 2008 7:10 PM EDT to parent up   1 recs

or

Hanley has incredibly fast bat speed and had an awful lot of hits falling short. Partially because in AA it was an extreme pitchers league and partially because he hadn't filled out yet.

Gomez is bigger and has filled out more. So there is less to expect there. And he has less bat speed.

Gomez in no way shape or form has Hanley or "best player in the league" upside.

If you use the argument "it's possible" or "if everything goes right" then you might as well say every player has that upside and every players downside is to bust. After all it's possible. Useful? That's another story.

by pedrophile on Apr 4, 2008 7:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

FWIW

New Orleans is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the minors.

by faketeams on Apr 6, 2008 4:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Gomez tonight

3-4 with a double a run scored and 2 steals.

by Bravesin07 on Apr 4, 2008 10:15 PM EDT   0 recs

LOL

I think a good nickname for Carlos Gomez is Pavlov because every time he gets a hit or a walk all his insane supporters come a running panting and drooling.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 4, 2008 11:25 PM EDT   0 recs

LOL

or his detractors. I don't see all the insane supporters you're speaking of. certainly bravesin07 isn't a supporter.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Apr 5, 2008 12:01 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You don't think suggesting Gomez

has a ceiling of the best player in the game is a little insane? A week ago, he would have rated in the 30s or even 40s in our best prospect lists. After 5 days he has now shot up some people's lists to the top 10. You don't think that's slightly crazy?

by OldProspects on Apr 6, 2008 5:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

when did i say that

pls find the post where i indicated he would be or could be the best player in the game.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Apr 7, 2008 11:38 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Gomez is very impressive

He is the most exciting Twin i've watched in a long while. When he gets on first base he's almost a guarantee to steal 2nd.

Joe mauer is loving this i bet. He's getting way more RBI's from the 2 hole position then he did last year in the 3 hole position.

Gomez may never hit 25 HR's or drive in 100 runs. But my god is he a difference maker. When he gets on base ( which is a lot, from bunts, infield hits, gap hits ) he makes things happen and the other teams change how they play around him.

I'm not saying he's an all star or future HOF'r. But I will say his upside is HUGE, he's a game changer.

by hotshotschamp on Apr 5, 2008 2:44 AM EDT   0 recs

Comps

he wouldn't have this level of acrimony every 3 months on the board if there wasn't a ton of potential behind numbers that are just-good-enough-to-offer-promise. Isn't that really the crux of the issue here?

Will he develop plate discipline?
Will he develop power?
Will he become an elite defensive player?

If he gets one of those things, he's OK. If he gets two, he's a star, or at least a regular. If he gets three, he's an all-star.

Each of those three "developments" affects which comps we go pursue, right?

by siddfynch on Apr 5, 2008 1:19 PM EDT   0 recs

ugly game today

0-4 3 K's. If he hits his ceiling I think he can become Crawford with possibly more steals. Of course Crawford is very similar to Lou Brock with few steals.

by Bravesin07 on Apr 5, 2008 8:04 PM EDT   0 recs

Just for the record

You guys do realize that even with today's game, Gomez has had a BABIP of .563 so far this year, right? Before today, in 20 ABs he's had 5 strikeouts to 1 walk. Including today's game, in 24 ABs he's had 8 strikeouts with still 1 walk and 2 doubles. I'm not denying that he's talented or that he could be a very good player or maybe even a star, but wow do these expectations need to be lowered.

by OldProspects on Apr 5, 2008 11:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i think

there is something wrong with you

looking at stats and other things. You must be warped. hmmm. Don't you realize 4 games determines the whole season?

by pedrophile on Apr 6, 2008 9:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Damnit

Finally somebody explains it to me

by OldProspects on Apr 7, 2008 3:46 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And wanted to note

that with his 1-4 performance, his BABIP has now dipped to the positively mortal level of .500. And with it, his OPS is dipping to around .800.

by OldProspects on Apr 7, 2008 3:51 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

that's terrible

.800 ops for a 22 yr old. wow.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Apr 7, 2008 11:46 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

BABIP

He'll always have a relatively high BABIP for three reasons. 1. He's a free swinger who strikes out a lot. I don't see that changing any time soon. 2. He's incredibly fast, so if he puts it in play on the ground, he has a pretty good chance of getting a hit. 3. He's an excellent bunter, and he seems to bunt the first pitch of the game almost every game for a hit because you can't really defend his bunts (see point 2.).

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 8, 2008 10:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He's going to be very good

I do think he'll develop some pop, but more like 15-20 HR than 25-30. The tools are great, and he'll be a plus defender, and a productive bat as well.

I think those that are saying "ceiling of about the best player in baseball" may be over rating him, but those who thought the Twins would have been better off with the Red Sox package with Ellsbury were under rating him.

His plate discipline took a nice jump in AAA last year and it will jump in MLB too once he's had time to adjust. I'm not saying it will be great, but it will be solid. He was at a walk every 10.5 PA last year in AAA, and in a season or two I expect he'll be around that in MLB.

I think there's a very good chance he'll be a guy with gold glove potential CF defense, around an .800 OPS, and over 40 SB. It is possible he could develop more power as well, but I don't think it's that likely.

by acerimusdux on Apr 12, 2008 2:54 AM EDT   0 recs

He's Crawford with better defense

and So much for Ellsbury being better now, Ellsbury can't even draw a walk and hit a fluke HR.

by Bravesin07 on Apr 12, 2008 8:33 AM EDT to parent up