OT: General Fantasy Advice

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 9, 2008 7:49 PM EDT

I'm finally going to try my hand at fantasy baseball this year. A friend at work talked me into it. I'm not looking for advice on specific players. I'm pretty comfortable with that. I just am uncomfortable with general draft strategy since I've never done it before.

Here are the basics of the league: 10 teams. MLB only. Mixed AL/NL, 26 players/team plus 2 DL slots. H2H. Scoring is basic: BA, Runs, HR, RBI, SB's, W, ERA, K, WHIP, Saves. Notice no BB's, OBP, non-HR XBH's. Each team can carry over 5 players from the previous year, 3 hitters and 2 pitchers. I'm inheriting the weakest team by a good margin: Aaron Rowand, Miggy Tejada, Carlos Pena, El Duque, and Hideki Okajima. Draft is this coming Friday, March 14.

Here's what I've done so far:

I ranked enough players at each position so that each team can pick two players before me and I would still get somebody I could live with.
I then ranked a top 10 ignoring position(mostly OF's) and then mixed it up but still tried to stay approximately in the order of overall value.

OF is the strongest at the top, but relatively thin.

SP is only fair at the top, and also very thin since each team needs 5 SP's.

3B is pretty good at the top and quite deep.

2B is weak and thin.

Catcher is weak at the top, but fairly deep.

RP is strong and deep.

My problem: To fill out the 10 teams, a total of 210 players will be drafted. My list goes only to #160! The remaining players are about 1/2 of the RP's and flotsam/jetsam from the master list.

My question: Should I stick with my list and try to expand it to at least 210, or should I try to frontload with OF's, and SPs(I'm most worried about coming up short on SP's) once I get past the first round or two?

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Sorry

Thanks in advance for any advice anyone might have to give.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 9, 2008 7:47 PM EDT 0 recs

comments

IMO position scarcity is over-rated. It does have meaning but less than people credit it with.

I agree you must go after top OF first.

I also think 2B is a position you can pick very late. Maybe even take a flyer on someone in Washington? Or a rookie.

If the SP is only fair at the top then even though 3B is deep why not grab a huge bat at 3B? SP is the position easiest to pickup waiver wire solid finds.

Catcher is probably another position like 2B to just wait until late.

Don't worry too much about the numbers. There is no way the 210 drafted will match the players on your list. There is always off the charts selections. Maybe 190 will be needed.

I'm wondering if you could ask the league what were the players cut as it seems very very very strange that of the 2 pitchers one is El Duque. Almost seems like someone played games with this team or someone without the best interests did the protection list.

I would check and maybe you can be allowed to modify the protection list. If you find a star player unprotected and they don't allow you to change it I would quit the league as it wouldn't have any integrity.

by pedrophile on Mar 9, 2008 8:09 PM EDT 0 recs

Not Malicious

I don't think anything malicious is going on. Most likely the team was run by someone who didn't know what they were doing and lost interest. I was the last guy in, so I'm stuck with it or else, as you say, just quit before I get started. I figure I'll use it as a learning year, try to get some young players with upside I can keep next year and work my way up. That's if I like it and want to keep going in the future.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 9, 2008 9:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

sure

the owner probably quit because of lack of interest and or knowledge. But who did the protection list?

I would seriously ask to see what was cut and if there was a serious upgrade I would ask the commissioner if you can change the protected players. Any fair commissioner would honour that request.

btw - BJ Upton is the man to target. I like him more than his brother and more than Delmon. Although I don't think you can go wrong with either of them.

by pedrophile on Mar 9, 2008 9:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

Not That Big A Deal

I'm as competitive as the next guy or more so, but it's not that big a deal to me. I'm sure there are knowledgeable people in the league, but my friend did pretty well last year(with some advice from me) and his knowledge of baseball is a fraction of mine. I think with my knowledge of younger players, I can work my way up on this one and have some fun. I'm mostly doing it to make my friend happy.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 9, 2008 9:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

Some Basics

I tend to make an Excel Sheet with Positions across the top, and go about 20 deep per position needed. So, If there are 10 teams, there will be 10 SS, 10 2B, and 10MI (30 total) plus maybe a couple extra on some benches. If 210 players are getting taken, I'd make sure I at least have each position's minimum listed, and a total of about 230-240 (sometimes draft strategy can change at the end based on your team, and you may decide to load up on a type of player, it's nice to have extra ones listed...). Finally, I split the position lists into Tiers, showing where there will be a large dropoff in talent. If you are between the last guy in Tier one at 1B, and one of 8 guys in Tier 1 at 2B, take the 1B...

I also have an Excel Sheet that is basically a roster grid- teams across the top, positions down the left. Fill in the keepers for each team. This can help you spot trends. If you look across at First Basemen, and notice every team but you is keeping one, then maybe you can wait for a while (because they won't have as pressing a need to draft one). You can print this out and use it to track opponents' teams during the draft as well.

I tried to keep this simple, and it really isn't too much work once you get the hang of it.

by killa on Mar 9, 2008 8:37 PM EDT 0 recs

By the Way

That is a pretty horrible keeper team in a 10 team league. Only Carlos Pena and Tejada should be considered keepers at all, and they are both low-level ones at that. Good luck turning things around! You might want to consider taking some younger players and high/risk-high/reward guys in the 2nd half of the draft- because it's going to be hard for you to win the league this year. Don't be afraid to reach for an Alex Gordon or Delmon Young type a round or 2 early. Reaches are ok if you have a plan and they fit it.

by killa on Mar 9, 2008 8:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

Future

Yes, My idea is to try to get one or two of the few elite players still available in the first two rounds and then go for youth with upside. Delmon Young is somebody I have my eye on as well as the Uptons, Chad Billingsley, Clay Bucholz, etc. For instance, at catcher I'm thinking along the lines of Soto, Towles or even Kurt Suzuki who I think could be a great value in the late rounds.

I'm sure my learning curve will be pretty steep and next year I should have a better idea of what to do.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 9, 2008 9:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

+1

Your keepers are indeed pretty terrible. Do you have to keep them? If not, I would consider tossing all but Pena/Tejada back (and maybe even Tejada, depending on the SS depth) and drafting more good young players.

My bottom-line advice to you would be as follows: Judging by the situation you've inherited, you're unlikely to win or really even compete in your league this year. Harness your knowledge of young "Not a Rookie" players and prospects to build your team with an eye twoards competing in 2009 and beyond.

Finally, I disagree with pedro about position scarcity. While it isn't the end all and be all, I absolutely think you need to build a strong offensive core at 2B/SS to win in fantasy. That means finding 4 and 5 catgeory offensive players at those positions. I agree you can find some good value at 2B later (Kelly Johnson? Aaron Hill?), but I would consider blowing a big pick on SS.

by Yakker on Mar 10, 2008 12:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

Oh, and

H2H is about finding consistent performers, so guys who'll go 20-20 without crushingly bad averages (Chris Young?) are like gold. Big SB guys who do nothing else for you (Chris Duffy) are not the way to build, IMO.

Good luck.

by Yakker on Mar 10, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

bitch

;)

I'd rather have A-Rod at 3B over someone like Glaus and then put Huey Lewis (and his band mates) at 2B.

The difference between a killer superstar like A-Rod over the others far outweighs the other difference.

Think about this:

A 2B hits 280 with 15 HR's and 15 steals and he is very highly rated at 2B.

A 2B hits 260 with 7 HR's and 7 steals and he is near the very bottom of 2B.

Difference? 7 or 8 HR's and steals. Big deal.

I've found most winners have HUGE production at the corners, DH, OF, and very solid if unspectacular pitching.

by pedrophile on Mar 10, 2008 10:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sure

When you frame it that way...but the difference over the next 3 years between A-Rod, David Wright, Cabrera, and Braun )in 5x5 points) isn't all that significant. Simialrly, the difference between (Atkins, Jones, Zimmerman, Kouzmanoff, etc.) isn't likely to be all that great either.

Now, if there's one guy left on that top tier, by all means Dr.B. should go for him...but i'm guessing the reality in his league is very different.

by Yakker on Mar 11, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

well

at some point Dr.B will have to make some choices ;)

I do understand position scarcity. I just think it's like moneyball -> the true power positions are now under-rated and SS/2B/C are over-rated to the point that the power positions are your value choices.

by pedrophile on Mar 11, 2008 10:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

DrB...

...should have taken me up on the sim league. :( Could give Killa here the beat down.

by jfish26101 on Mar 9, 2008 8:54 PM EDT 0 recs

I Resisted

I told my friend no the first 50 times or so he asked. I finally figured it's going to be a really boring season for Giants fans outside following the minor leagues, so I finally relented. Still am not sure if I really have the time to do it justice.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 9, 2008 9:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah

I know I asked you half a dozen times or so in the Down on the Farm thread. E-mailed you a couple times but you never seemed remotely interested. You could have had the Giants MLB roster with your whole top 40 for your first experience with fantasy baseball! I'm sure you will have fun though; just stinks you have such a long ways to go before seeing the reward. On one hand, it helps to have a bad team because you can't mess up much and the only direction to go is up but it is a long term commitment.

by jfish26101 on Mar 9, 2008 9:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

Turnaround

I'm not counting on it, but these guys make some pretty stupid moves. My friend actually acquired Johan Santana and Manny Ramirez in trade last year and I can tell you he didn't give up much. Then he dumped ManRam and kept Orlando Cabrera for this year. Go figure.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 9, 2008 9:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

Best Advice

I'm going to copy another website's advice.

The best thing you can do is separate your players into tiers. Do you know who will put up better numbers this year between Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez? It's really impossible to say as both are first tier catchers. However, almost everyone expects Victor Martinez to put up better numbers than Kenji Johjima - who is a second tier guy. The thing to do is separate your players into tiers and then target guys as their tiers start to shrink. Thus, if you are drafting somewhere in the middle rounds and there are ten second tier OF left but only one second tier SS left, you should draft the SS - because a second tier OF will still be there next time.

Finally, when you figure out who your sleepers (or young guys who you want to target) are, bump them up a tier. That way, you'll be drafting say Hank Blalock (injury sleeper) at the bottom of the second tier instead of somewhere in the third tier...

Good luck, sounds like your team will need it.

by Dfarth on Mar 9, 2008 9:42 PM EDT 0 recs

Tiers

Yes, I've been doing the tier thing. I'll take another look at it and make sure I've drawn the lines right.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 9, 2008 9:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

Nice

The tier thing's pretty standard, and very good advice.

I really like the idea of bumping sleepers up 1 tier. Helps you avoid over-drafting sleepers.

by Yakker on Mar 10, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

trade

trade.
buy low, sell high.
trust your instincts and what you know,
go for players you like.
it's more fun when your team is full of guys you really do like.

by god allah star on Mar 9, 2008 10:49 PM EDT 0 recs

head to head

head to head is all about consistency while roto is about the sum of parts. Try to always build your team around 20-20 players. Look for the bobby abreus, corey harts, bj uptons. Stay away from the low average all-or-nothing power hitters. For every week Andruw jones and richie sexson hit .400 their going to have 2 weeks where they are going to hit .200 and kill your BA those weeks.
DO NOT chase wins at all. The key is to find the lowest minimum innings pitch limit and use that number. The more innings you pitch the better the chance your era and whip go up.

by krgrecw on Mar 10, 2008 12:31 AM EDT 0 recs

Players You Like

I did leave some players off my draft list just because I don't like them. For instance, no way is AJ Pierzynski going to be on my team even if he's the best catcher available. Fortunately, I don't think AJ would do me much good anyway.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 10, 2008 1:24 AM EDT up 0 recs

General Info

Good real life players and good fantasy players are not the same thing, and people don't always realize this quickly (or at all)

For example, most leagues don't differentiate between LF, CF, and RF, and defense doesn't matter. However, some don't take this into account when they look at a player, and they think "this guy is universally regarded as a better player than the other guy" so they pick the first guy.

For example, Desmond Jennings may be a better real life prospect than Tyler Colvin, but that takes into account defense, base-running speed, position scarcity, etc. In fantasy-land, the fact that Colvin is a corner guy doesn't matter, and the fact that he'll be bad at said corner doesn't matter: you're drafting the bat

May sound stupid or obvious, but I have a friend who just drafted a ton of centerfield prospects because they were listed high on prospect charts, not taking into account that the things that set them apart as prospects aren't valued in our leagues.

-1 and only member of the Jed Lowrie fan club!

by Jgaztambide on Mar 10, 2008 12:32 AM EDT 0 recs

+1

Also, don't overthink fantasy. Find hitters who hit at Fenway, Camden, Arlington, etc. Draft NL pitchers, preferably not from Colorado, Philly, or Cincy.

by Yakker on Mar 10, 2008 12:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

In a ten team Mixed League

There will always be value on the waiver wire/FA pool. So after you've filled most of your starting spots, if you're choosing between a low upside, competent backup type and a boom or bust guy who, if everything breaks right, could be a steal always take the high upside guy. If he busts, you should be able to find an adequate replacement on the waiver wire.

Also, especially with a team like yours (starting behind the 8 ball in keepers), draft to trade - that is, pick BPA each round even if you already have one or 2 guys at that spot; the guy sitting on your bench will be better than the guy one of your friends has to start, so you can leverage that into a trade that benefits you.

General rule for fantasy trading, btw, is that whoever gets the best overall player wins. You always want to be the guy offering 2 for 1 deals, and never the guy taking them

by Locke000 on Mar 10, 2008 1:04 PM EDT 0 recs

Lots of great advice so far

I would agree that I would ask for the list of players who were not selected for your keepers. Even if they are worse, at least you saw the names and agree that you want those five. Fantasy is also about fun, so maybe there's a worse younger player on the list that you would rather keep than El Duque, for example.

But if that's the best five, it sounds like it might be a poorly managed league, better leagues would prevent that from happening. Lopsided trades would not have been allowed to go through in the leagues I've been in, they would have vetoed those trades and stop a team from destroying itself the way the team you inherit apparently did (unless, of course, that GM just selected a really bad set of players).

Particularly if it is so bad that a reliever is a keeper. I really like Okajima, but a starter should really be the other keeper, in my mind. And nobody spoke up for Rowand, so I'll do it, I think while he's not an ideal keeper choice, I like him better than Miggie or Pena.

Tiering is definitely the way to go. I use Baseball Forecaster's list to draft (cheap book using Amazon).

My philosophy, just for food for thought, has been to focus on the high K/9 (plus high K/BB) pitchers and not worry as much about Wins or Saves. You get high K/BB and K/9 and that should get you ERA, WHIP, and K nailed down. Wins are too variable (as any good saber can tell you) and saves can dry up suddenly due to ineffectiveness and/or injury. I usually bottom fish for saves, quickly pick up relievers off free agency looking like they might rise to the closer spot soon, or relievers who are just having a breakout year, again focusing on high K/9 and K/BB relievers.

You did not mention your playing roster size. If there are no minimum on IP, I try to find one current season reliever who also qualify for SP and overload my playing roster with an extra reliever who can deliver ERA, WHIP, and K. Relievers tend to have lower ERA and WHIP anyway, and really help with winning the rate stats. Even if there is a minimum, if you are willing to manage your lineup every day, you can rotate your SP in and out of the lineup, when they get a start, allowing you to improve your overall stats with another strong reliever in a SP spot.

Hitters, as above, go for power and speed combos where you can. A technique I use - don't know if it works, haven't seen anyone recommend it - is to take each player's 2007 stats and sum up their counting stats - runs, HR, RBI, SB - and then rank them that way. That gives you a nice view of which player at which positions really deliver fantasy scoring and open up some nuggets you might not otherwise see.

I like to keep 2-3 spots on my roster fluid, where I can drop them and jump on a young prospect who just came up and can be selected via the waiver system. I would insist that you be the first team in line for waivers to start the season. Don't jump on the first one you like/need, I would keep in mind who you really want and wait for him to get called up.

Most teams are not that into the league, so if you can keep an eye out for when young prospects come up, even when I have low waiver priority, I would put in a bid for the young player and sometimes nobody would have noticed he was added to the league and you pick up a young stud-to-be.

If you can devote that much time, you can swing your roster to youth pretty quickly, I usually get my hands on a lot of young players easily during the season in any league where there are so many players available in free agency.

Also, there's always one team who drops a good player who is down on his luck this season and I would take chances on him if he falls through waivers. I picked up Hafner once and Berkman another time doing that, and got Petitte that one great year with Houston.

And that's a good point the poster made above, there will still be a lot of good players available in free agency afterward, so don't be afraid of taking chances on upside.

Good luck and, more importantly, have fun, I've really enjoyed playing it the past few years, and it really made me more knowledgeable about baseball in general, rather than being very team-centric before. I think you will enjoy it too, even with a prospect focus, as you can pick up a lot of young guys normally (unless your fellow GMs are huge prospect hounds too...)

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Mar 11, 2008 9:58 PM EDT 0 recs

Thanks Everybody!

Lots of good advice. I'm already implementing a lot of it.

I've been tiering my lists.

I've done some stat counting. My idea was BA/10+RBI/3+HR+Runs/3 + steals since they are all weighted equally in this league.

A quicker and dirtier way is to take Runs+ RBI's. Then tier by >200, 180-200, 160-180, etc. Then move up one tier for young players with upside.

I agree that wins are pretty useless. I'm eyeballing ERA, which usually mirrors WHIP fairly closely and K's. One way I'm looking for wins is to favor pitchers with good stats on good hitting teams. For instance, I might favor Billingsley over Tim LIncecum because if Billz pitches even close to Tim's stats, he'll probably bag a lot more wins on the better hitting team.

As for position scarcity, I'm favoring the shallow positions for players of close productivity. For instance, I might favor Magglio Ordonez over Robinson Cano, but I might favor Cano over Carl Crawford because I can come close to Crawford's production later, but there is a steep dropoff at 2B after Cano.

Anyway, feel free to help me out if I'm off track. Hope nobody from my league is reading this. LOL!

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 11, 2008 11:52 PM EDT 0 recs

Some thoughts...

1. In fantasy, PT is king. 140 games played is 12.5% less than 160 games played (duh!), and that impacts everything. In a league as small as yours, the waiver players may be within 12.5% as good as the starting lineup guys, so get healthy players who aren't in any danger of being benched much.

1b. I agree with the advice to let catchers slide. They only play 70-80% as much as other position players, so the differences between the best and worst are reduced by 20-30%. And they are more prone to missing big chunks of time with injuries, as it's a dangerous position. Ideally, getting a player who is playing somewhere else but is rated at catcher is the best, though usually impossible (Winningham was an example a couple years ago).

160 names should be enough to cover 210 draft picks. Any names you come up with beyond that are just guys to put into a team tracker somewhere to watch as potential waiver acquisitions.
Walks hurt everyone. Hitters drawing walks lose leverage on their batting average (this can be a good thing for the Adam Dunns of the world), and can only potentially score a run (okay, they could walk in a run for an RBI, but that's pretty rare) from that plate appearance. Meanwhile, the free-swinging highly overrated players are going to rack up stats. Walks hurt pitchers because WHIP counts walks and singles the same value, which isn't in keeping with actual run values.
Your assessment that OF and P are thin is sort of true, but those are also positions where it's virtually certain that some undrafted (or at least lightly-drafted) player will end up in the top 10 (or at least top 20) at year's end. I wouldn't fill up my slots in these positions until the very end (unless you see a true star slipping and slipping in the draft), instead using 1 slot of each for a later pick/potential waiver replacement. Who's to say that Brad Wilkerson or Juan Rivera won't be a top outfielder this year, or Matt Clement a top pitcher? Not likely, no, but there's always someone.
Speaking of Brad Wilkerson, positional flexibility is very useful in a draft, I find. If you can get a good player who covers two or more positions, you can then choose the best player from among two or more positions later in the draft. I've often overdrafted Ryan Freel in the past for this reason, and it's worked well for me. It's not always possible, but I think adding 5-10% to a player's value for flexibility is reasonable in what you'll recover later in the draft, and during the season for injury response. Not sure who would be good targets this year... Asdrubal Cabrera could be a budget flex player, perhaps? Chone Figgins always seems to get over-drafted in my estimation, or he'd be one.

Well, have fun... and welcome to the dark side of baseball.

by BobbyMac on Mar 12, 2008 1:27 AM EDT up 0 recs