Is There Any Hope For Andy Marte?
by John Sickels on Mar 7, 2008 3:45 PM EST
in News
41 comments
Is There Any Hope for Andy Marte?
I was all set to write this big thing about Marte. But the more I looked at it, the more I think it's not that complicated, really. I think he simply reached his peak earlier than most players, which is not to say he can't still be useful. More on that in a second.
Marte's best attributes as a prospect were age-relative-to-league, power, and strike zone judgment. But he hasn't hit particularly well since leaving the Atlanta system, and has basically shown no signs of improvement at all in three years. From watching him play, he looks a little....heavier....than he did back in '04 or '05. By heavier I don't mean his actual weight necessarily, but rather that he seems to have lost some quickness, some lightness afoot if you will. His performance certainly has been rock-steady at Buffalo, .773 OPS in 2006 and .766 in 2007, slightly above league averages but not performance that will push him into a major league job by itself.
His current MLEs make him as a .240/.300/.430 hitter or so in the majors. That's a better line than his .201/.263/.356 major league mark in 278 at-bats, and I do think that if someone gave Marte 500 at-bats that he'd hit something like what the MLEs show, probably somewhat better, say .250/.320/.450 would be my guess. But that's obviously not great.
Marte is still just 24 years old, three or four years away from the theoretical peak. I think getting a fresh start in a new organization would help him. Things I have heard indicate that he's been pretty frustrated in Cleveland and keeps pressing, trying to hit seven-run homers every at-bat to force his way into a job. This dovetails well with scouting reports that he's become excessively power-conscious, trying to pull everything.
My guess is that Marte will get one more good chance somewhere, and still has a reasonable shot to develop into a useful, productive slugger. Given his age, it is too early to give up totally and condemn him to Triple-A sluggerdom. But even if he does turn things around, I no longer see him as a potential star player. Age-relative-to-league is important, but it's just one factor, and some players peak early. I think that's what happened here. He's better than he's looked in the majors, and he can beat what he's done in Buffalo. But his chance to be a star is gone I think.
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Food for thought
Starting 3B by midseason? That career up through his age 21 AAA season can't be a complete fluke, can it (ie, players get bored repeating levels)?
by kwoog on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:23:45 PM CDT
marte
I'm giving up on Marte.
Which means he'll hit .297 with 27 homers for the Indians, lol.
by John Sickels on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 02:15:29 PM CDT
[ Parent ]
by PujolsJunkie on Mar 7, 2008 4:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I have no hope left
I've got not a margin of confidence in me He'll turn things around.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 7, 2008 5:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Boy
by Yakker on Mar 7, 2008 6:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Why?
by The Colonel on Mar 7, 2008 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
by Yakker on Mar 7, 2008 7:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Or maybe it was his hitting?
by sdtribefan on Mar 7, 2008 9:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wha?
Last year Coco had a 6 WARP vs. Shoppach's 2
Even Coco's worst year (2006) was were Shoppach's best is. Also, I think it needs to be said that thumb injury has killed coco, his bat control has never been the same, and its a lot harder to predict those things than Theo may have predicted Marte was a bust as well.
by jspearlj1 on Mar 7, 2008 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Part of the reason why the WARP is off is
Hello jspearlj1,
I understand your point, and thought Coco was a solid contributing piece to the Indians' 2005 season where they went 93-69, but keep in mind that part of the reason why there is such a discrepancy in the WARPs is because Coco was a starter and Shoppach was a backup.
With the Indians and with a few other select teams, Shoppach is a backup, but by most accounts, Shoppach would be starting for at least 10 teams, maybe up to 20 teams in the MLs. If he was starting, chances are, his WARP would be much closer to Coco's (I'm guessing at least a 4 WARP,) being that Shoppach is a plus defender and has some power in his bat, plus can work the count at times. If he started regularly, Shoppach could probably hit around 20 HRs or so, which is certainly nothing to sneeze at when it's your starting catcher providing that pop.
There has been some discussion on whether the Indians would trade Shoppach, as he'd be a valuable trade chip, but the Indians like the fact that the Indians can give Martinez some time off at catcher to keep his bat fresh, while keeping and even improving the defensive ability at the catcher's position, along with providing another bat that can hit a HR here and there.
Therefore, don't read too much into Shoppach's 2 WARP - that was only based on 161 ABs in 59 Gs; Coco's 6 WARP was based on 526 ABs in 145 Gs. That certainly is going to help make Coco's WARP be higher, even though the value between the two players themselves probably isn't that dissimilar. Some would question Coco being a starting OFer on most ML teams (though his defense might be enough to keep him in CF on a good number of teams,) while Shoppach would be the starting catcher for at least 10-20 teams - if they were both starting in roughly the same number of ABs, I suspect their WARPs wouldn't be that dissimilar, probably within a point or two at most.
Just my 2 cents - no offense.
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Mar 7, 2008 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Your WARP argument might be more persuasive
by sdtribefan on Mar 8, 2008 6:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Backup OF
Do you honestly believe Coco will remain a backup OF for the rest of the year and that no other team will step up and make a more legit offer than my crap for your crap?
Quote: Why do you think there haven't been anybody willing to take him even with his financially friendly contract?
You're kidding right? Maybe its because Theo has decided not to deal him for pennies on the dollar. Heaven forbid a GM be smart and hold back a guy when he can get more later. Is it really damnation for Coco that Theo hasn't traded him yet? Manny was put on waivers and nobody took him so he must be useless too right?
Also, Even as a sox fan who heavily follows their minors, I'll still say that Ellsbury isn't decidedly better than Coco right now, but that he was just incredibly lucky last year and the data shows this for the most part. Hell, both Zips and PECOTA have them at very similar offensive value but coco with decidedly better defense.
I have a soft spot for Shoppach as a sox fan, but you can't just assume that he would hold his offensive value as a starter. Even then though, like you said, their value would be similar if he were a starter. So I dont see their value as even a best case scenario for Shoppach as him having much more value.
I've become something of the defacto Coco defender at soxprospects and I see it from sox fans all over that this guy was just dumped on constantly. Sure his bat was bad last year, but is it a wonder that their flyball heavy pitching staff was best in the majors last year? Drew wasn't a huge upgrade in RF, it was Coco going from average to otherworldly. And that 6 WARP reflects that. Without Coco that team might not have won its division and home field which could have played a large role in the sox making it past the Indians last year.
by jspearlj1 on Mar 8, 2008 7:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry,.
by jspearlj1 on Mar 8, 2008 7:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, are you implying
by sdtribefan on Mar 8, 2008 6:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ha
by jspearlj1 on Mar 9, 2008 12:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Some thoughts on Crisp & Shoppach!
Regarding Coco, I always liked him when he was with the Indians and thought he fit our offense well as the #2 hitter behind Sizemore. I wasn't fond of seeing him traded, even before Marte faltered. I could understand the reasoning though - being that Coco's production in LF wouldn't match up to other LFers (though our current LF production isn't any better than Crisp's 2005 season, and might even be worse,) and that he'd never displace Sizemore in CF here in Cleveland, it made sense in the Indians' eyes to trade him.
I can understand the 6 WARP factoring in his defense, but as I mentioned, the main reason why Coco's value looks so much higher than Shoppach's is because of the disparity in how often they played.
Granted, you can't presume Shoppach would automatically be an offensive contributor, but most experts/analysts and even projection systems like PECOTA I believe think that Shoppach would provide great defense and provide some pop in his bat - give or take 20 HRs. He might only hit .250 or so at the ML level, but getting 20 HRs from your starting catcher would likely raise his WARP a point or two at least, being that it's rare to have a power-hitting catcher, and even rarer to have a power-hitting catcher who excels defensively. That's why I think he'd close that gap between himself and Crisp if both were starting regularly.
One other point - I'm a bit surprised you mentioned that Coco would be considered the better defender over Ellsbury; from what I've heard, Ellsbury is supposed to be pretty solid to very good defensively. I can understand your points about Coco being the better player right now, as I too think that Ellsbury is going to need some adjustment time once the league sees him a few times - Ellsbury is not likely going to hit .350-.400 right off the bat, if he hits that high at any point (.300-.330 is likelier to be his high point BA-wise in my opinion,) but Coco, while being great with range, has an average arm at best, which was a main reason why many questioned how good his defense would be in CF when the Red Sox planned to have him be their everyday CFer. From what I've heard, Ellsbury is a very good defender in CF, if not GC-caliber, just under GC-caliber. I'm not sure Coco is quite in that league, though he certainly played a very good LF for us in 2005, but in CF, I think most thought he'd be solid to a bit above average, but still a notch or two below Ellsbury.
If you have more information or could elaborate further on why you think Coco is the better defender over Ellsbury at this point, it would be greatly appreciated - thanks!
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Mar 9, 2008 1:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Crisp's biggest limitation defensively
No, it is his deficiencies at the plate which hold him back and they have not improved over the years. I was really happy Cleveland got rid of him when his value was high after hitting 17 HRs. Crisp is not a #2 hitter. He is bottom of the order. He should be better but isn't and performance is what counts. Boston has a great lineup except for CF, SS, an overage C and an overpaid RF. They look to have internal answers at CF and SS but they have to be old at C which is my point. Shoppach would be a big upgrade to reduce the load on the old guys.
by sdtribefan on Mar 9, 2008 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Say John...
by Jihan1 on Mar 7, 2008 8:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Here you go
by sdbaseballfan on Mar 8, 2008 2:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
I am reminded of one of the most incredible at-bats I've ever seen. In a Longhorns game, the opposing pitcher hit the batter before him and there was some yelling back and forth. Brooks got up and the first pitch came in high and tight. Brooks lined the next pitch right back at the pitcher, glancing it off his cheek and into centerfield. The pitcher was so shaken, he had to leave the game.
How's that for bat control?
by Jihan1 on Mar 8, 2008 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thoughts on Marte!
John - nice write-up on Marte.
I was always skeptical and leery of Marte because he never hit .300+ at any one level and his production at each or most levels was solid, but was mostly viewed highly because of how young he was at each level, not because the numbers themselves were "eye-popping."
I thought - he might turn out, but I thought it might take him a while, if he does, and I was still not convinced he would become a true star.
When I first seen Marte for myself in the Cleveland system, I seen he had power, but was VERY concerned about the fact that all he did was pull the ball. Even over at LGT, that was/is an issue we discuss often with Marte whenever he is playing; just the other day in a ST game (against the Reds, I think, but am not certain,) one LGT poster asked if Marte pulled the ball he hit (for the record, the ball was well-struck to left-center for a 2B, so technically, he pulled it, but not as extreme as he often does.)
That was my biggest concern with Marte after he came over to Cleveland. As John mentioned, Marte looks to pull virtually every ball he attempts to hit, forgetting or not being able to utilize the whole field, and with a few exceptions, unless you can utilize the whole field, chances are, you are not going to play at a high level at the ML level, certainly not at the star level Marte was originally projected to play at, as quality ML pitchers will just keep throwing to the outside corner until you either swing and miss or hit a weak groundball to the SS or 3B.
Like many, I too am skeptical of Marte ever developing into the star, or even a solid, player for the Indians. Part of the problem for Marte is that the Indians are a contender now - they can't really afford to allow Marte to get acclimated to the Majors and hit .200 or less in the first few months of action while starting at 3B. Back when the Indians were rebuilding, they could have been more willing to do that, but at this point, Blake is a more reliable bet to provide decent offense at 3B (even though Marte's offensive ceiling is higher,) and Blake's defense at 3B last season was at least above-average, and better than Marte's poor defensive start when he booted several makeable balls in the field.
That was the other major problem for Marte last season - he got off to a poor start defensively, and once he started making errors on routine or relatively routine plays, the Indians certainly could not afford to keep Marte over at 3B, not when they had Blake who did a solid enough job over there in the past, and was even better than solid there after he took over from Marte after Marte went down with the hamstring injury last season. I think Blake would have probably been inserted into the lineup as the starting 3B if Marte had continued struggling for a few more weeks, but the hamstring injury helped to make the transition from Marte to Blake a less debated one. Blake played so well from that point on and Marte didn't push the issue much at AAA Buffalo last season (outside of one or two weeks where he hit a few HRs) to force the Indians to consider reinserting Marte as the starting 3B at the ML level.
As well as Blake played last season and how steady he has played since he came to the Indians in 2003 (albeit with flaws such as his hitting with RISP,) they really can't give the starting 3B job to Marte right out of ST. At the same time, the Indians don't want to let go of Marte too quickly, as GM Mark Shapiro admitted the Indians did with 2B Brandon Phillips, which is why the Indians will try to give him as much playing time as they can, with Marte playing at 3B, 1B, and perhaps even the corner OF spots, though Manager Eric Wedge mentioned that that OF possibility is a bit down the road after they see how he moves out in the OF. Of course, being that Marte is out of options also plays into the fact that he has to make the Indians' ballclub out of ST or else risk losing him for nothing.
Interestingly, as I looked up information on Marte's 2007 injury to make sure I remembered exactly what it was, this link mentioned that Marte was almost included in the rumored Jason Bay talks this past offseason, a trade that never materialized. Supposedly, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Dejan Kovacevic was the one who mentioned this on Jan. 28.
One other big problem Marte faces in the Indians' organization and why I agree with John that Marte's best chance at future success in the MLs might be outside the Indians' organization is that 3B prospects Wes Hodges and Beau Mills aren't that far away. (I know Mills has been playing mostly 1B this ST, so there are rumors the 3B experiment is over again, but I haven't heard this for sure, so for now, I'll still consider Mills a long-term 3B prospect.) Hodges will likely start at AA Akron to begin 2008, and could reach AAA Buffalo by the second half of 2008. Mills will likely start at High-A Kinston in 2008, but could reach AA Akron by the second half. The two of them combined could create a potential log-jam at the top of the Indians' Minor League system at 3B, and with Marte's past struggles, he's going to have to take advantage of any and every opportunity he gets from here on out to convince the Indians that he would be the better long-term choice at 3B over both Hodges and Mills, two prospects who haven't been in the system as long as Marte has and who haven't been given some opportunities to succeed at the ML level, failing to capitalize on them each time.
Therefore, in a sense, Hodges and Mills' future potential (a.k.a. "prospect luster") is much brighter than Marte's is now, which is why it's likely the Indians will give up on Marte rather than give up and/or hold back on either Hodges or Mills unless Marte gives them convincing reason to hold back or trade Hodges or Mills. This is why this season is so important for Marte in terms of his future status with the Indians long-term.
Right now, I'm guessing Marte might have a 20-30% chance at best of being here beyond 2008. Only a strong season where he takes advantage of the opportunities given to him and getting and taking advantage of more opportunities given to him (due to good, consistent play, including not trying to pull every pitch and hit "7-run homers" with every swing) will raise those odds in my opinion. Otherwise, I think the Indians will try to include him in a future trade at some point, perhaps during the 2008 season if the right deal comes along or during the 2008 offseason, especially if Hodges and/or Mills are knocking on the door to the MLs (AAA for the former and AA or AAA for the latter.)
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Mar 7, 2008 9:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I appreciate the compliment - thank you! :-)
by indiansfan on Mar 7, 2008 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just do not think
by sdtribefan on Mar 7, 2008 9:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
That's a good point about his work ethic!
That's a good point you make about his work ethic - there's been more question about that the last few seasons, that Marte seems to be "going through the motions." Whether that's due to the fact he's frustrated because he hasn't established himself at the ML level yet, because he's spent several seasons now at AAA (Richmond and Buffalo,) or for some other reason, Marte's work ethic over the past few seasons seems to have fallen a bit.
At one time, from what I had heard, he had a strong work ethic, but I haven't heard that too much lately, which I think could also partly explain why he has not lived up to expectations.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Mar 7, 2008 11:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Anybody else think
by Havok1517 on Mar 8, 2008 12:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ironically, some have thought that Marte would
Hello Havok1517,
Yes, Marte and SF have been brought up a time or two by some people during the offseason (don't remember if it was baseball reporters, baseball bloggers, or both.) I wonder - what would be a fair trade in terms of value for Marte that the Giants could provide?
The Giants could afford to be patient with Marte, being that they likely will not contend for a few seasons. In addition, from what I understand from another thread I read (I could be wrong,) but it sounds like Rich Aurilia is going to start at 3B? Or possibly Kevin Frandsen? Frandsen has some potential, though I think he'd be better at 2B or as a utility player long-term since he's not likely to hit for much, if any, power, and it seems from what I heard that he could handle the 2B position fairly well (and perhaps the other positions he played in 2007 for SF as well.) Aurilia - if that is correct, he certainly is not a long-term solution there, so Marte could certainly fit in there for the short-term, and perhaps the long-term if he develops.
I doubt SF would part with either Lincecum or Cain for Marte, now that his value has dropped, but what would be appropriate value the Giants could give for Marte's present value that the Indians could use? A power-hitting and/or high-BA OFer, a young decent starting or relieving pitching prospect (maybe Erick Threets? Though I don't know if he'll ever gain reliable command,) or a MI prospect (being that the Indians' system does not have that much depth in the MI - beyond Peralta and Cabrera, only Barfield and Goedert really comprise the main depth at SS and MI, and Goedert will likely be at High-A to start 2008) would be nice acquisitions in a trade.
I'm not sure if Frandsen would be enough for Marte or not, though Marte's value is relatively low by most accounts now, and Frandsen could take over for Blake as the long-term utility man (seeing he played a multitude of positions for SF in 2007,) if not start at 2B long-term (I'm presuming Cabrera is shifted to SS and Peralta is either shifted to 3B or is traded in the future.) Maybe Frandsen and a low-level decent prospect for Marte?
Perhaps RHP Brad Hennessey? His K/IP numbers don't look great, but seems to have been relatively effective out of the bullpen in 2007, hails from Toledo, and went to Youngstown State University, plus he can be used in the rotation as well.
I take it that LHP Jose Capellan wouldn't be an option would he? I wouldn't mind him - good potential, but is a distance away. :-) I take it from his Baseball Cube page that he was a Rule 5 pick from the Red Sox? If a trade of him did occur, we'd have to keep him up all season at the ML level, correct, unless we worked out a trade with Boston for his rights? If I may ask, how is it that he already had to be put on the 40-man roster or be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft - was he signed when he was 16 or 17-YO? Just curious.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Mar 8, 2008 1:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good thoughts indiansfan,
tribe could definitely use more depth.
by sdtribefan on Mar 8, 2008 6:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I knew I forgot someone - whoops!
Thanks for reminding me about Rodriguez - don't know how I forgot about him. Must be "brain freeze" from all the snow I've been shovelling (about 2 feet worth, and yes, I did say feet - I live in Cleveland, which just got hit by a blizzard or darn close to a blizzard according to the exact meteorological definition - we might not have had the 35+ MPH winds that define a blizzard! :-)
Yes, Rodriguez is likelier to become the long-term 2B than Goedert at this point, since there are still some questions whether Goedert can remain there long-term, though he's staying there for now. Rodriguez himself has some questions about his defense at 2B, but being that he was a SS at Rice and seems to have enough range (I believe Rodriguez needs work on his consistency,) I'm guessing that he'll probably stay at 2B for a while, especially since his offensive ability would really stand out at 2B as compared to 3B (another possible spot long-term for him.)
As for Frandsen, even including Rodriguez in the MI discussion, Frandsen probably would still be a useful player to acquire, being that it seems he can play multiple positions, plus the fact that the Indians could entertain the idea of moving Cabrera to SS and Peralta to 3B or to another team via a trade sooner than having to wait for either Rodriguez or Goedert to reach the MLs as the Indians' future 2B. Chances are, both of them will probably need at least 2 more years, maybe 3 more years, before either could reach the Majors and possibly start full-time at 2B.
If the Indians decide to keep Peralta at SS and Cabrera at 2B long-term (beyond 2009-2010,) then Frandsen could help to serve as the super-utility player, a position Blake holds now, but he's only signed through 2008 and will be 35 by the time the 2008 season ends.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Mar 8, 2008 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Capellan
by jspearlj1 on Mar 8, 2008 7:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hope for Andy
by injun on Mar 10, 2008 10:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Beltre
His offensive numbers (adjusted for Safeco) are above-average (OPS+ of 112 last year) and his fielding at 3B is traditionally among the league best.
Perhaps you really think Marte will be as good as Beltre; however, if you are using Beltre as a proxy for "average offensive and defensive 3B," perhaps you should reconsider the comparison.
by Yakker on Mar 10, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re: Beltre
In fact I would say that Andy is probably a tad better with the on-base skills while having slightly less power. Still an .800+ OPS would be nothing to laugh at (since Casey Blake ended the season sub .800)
by injun on Mar 10, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
-- I think it's unlikely Marte attains Beltre's defensive level, which is very good. So I wonder whether you mean to compare the two solely as to offensive production.
-- IMO, citing Beltre's OPS numbers still underrates his production, coming as it does at Safeco, which is absolute death on right-handed power hitters. In fact, I think OPS+ also suffers from some of the same problems, though it's the best measure we have.
by Yakker on Mar 10, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re: Beltre
As I said earlier I think Andy's got a better eye at the plate but less power. As I said, I think Andy still has the skills to be an .800+ OPS third basemen with solid defense. But I'd like to see him get his chance to make that decision rather than forcing him to scratch for 2-3 at-bats a week. IMO, you learn nothing of a young player by limiting their at-bats.
by injun on Mar 11, 2008 7:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
I also don't think he'll produce in those 500 ABs as much as you do, but he should be given a shot, regardless. A change of scenery probably makes the most sense.
by Yakker on Mar 11, 2008 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
stalling
from what I've read that is, unfortunately, not Marte's problem(s)
- he's slowly losing his tools- specifically he's not as quick as he was at age 20.
- he's not adjusting
by Johnny Ruin on Mar 10, 2008 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re: stalling
I think the issue with him slowly losing his tools is that he is pressing. His power is still there (he did win the home run derby contest in 2006) and he has shown that his eye is there but he is wanting to hit everything out of the park. He's no longer using the whole field with his bat.
He also seems to be heavier on his feet. He apparently did not show up to camp in shape this year and that is solely his fault.
As for not adjusting, I dont think he's ever been given enough time to adjust. When you play for 2 days then sit for 2 its hard to make any adjustments. I truly believe if Andy simply got stuck in the lineup everyday and was allowed to sink or swim, he would eventually rise up and show himself to be a productive major leaguer.
by injun on Mar 10, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
baffling
that's kind of what I meant
by Johnny Ruin on Mar 11, 2008 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We'll take him!
by GobearsGogiants on Mar 11, 2008 4:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re: Merkin
by injun on Mar 12, 2008 6:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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