Noah Lowry Out Until Late April

by Azantor on Mar 6, 2008 10:30 PM EST

Both ESPN and MLB.com have Lowry out until almost may with a wrist injury.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3280522

http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080306&content_id=2409476&vkey=spt 2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=sf

I'm certainly not sounding any alarms, but it does weaken the pitching depth that the Giants have been letting everyone know about all winter. I am a fan of Lowry, and think that he's a serviceable Major League Pitcher who's at best a #3 starter, and more realistically a #4. Naturally, the caveat to that is only when he's cheap.

I think he got really lucky to have an ERA under 4 last year with a 1.55 WHIP. His walk rate and strikeout rates are both headed in bad directions. It might have been prudent to move him during the offseason for some B level position player...

The good that will hopefully come of this is that the Giants will be smart enough to let Sanchez stay in the rotation for a month and not jerk the poor kid around anymore. Correia is a nifty pitcher in his own right and Misch is a helluva competitor to succeed with the lack of stuff that he has, but Sanchez's ceiling is way higher, and it's time for him to get his shot; he's gonna be 25 this year.

Poll

Pick the guy to replace Lowry

Jonathan Sanchez

45 votes

Kevin Correia

11 votes

Pat Misch

8 votes

Victor Santos

0 votes

Merkin Valdez

2 votes

Someone Else

2 votes

68 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

How about...

calling the California Penal league and see if Rick Vaugh is avalible..... anyone see some similarity between the Giants this year and the Indians in that movie?

by RollingWave on Mar 6, 2008 11:49 PM EST reply actions

hahaha

Rich Aurilia= Dorn
Rajai Davis= Willie Mayes Hayes
Bengie Molina= Jake Taylor (on speed alone)
Erick Threets= Rick Vaughan
Bruce Bochy= Lou Brown
Barry Zito= Eddie Harris (stuff-wise)

they just need to sign Cerrano and they can take on the Yankees and make a run at the AL East

classy move Belichek...Quitter

by jrose643 on Mar 7, 2008 12:03 AM EST reply actions

Wily Mo Pena=Cerrano

F You Jabu!!!!

I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Mar 7, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions

So, whatever it takes

they need to trade for Wily Mo

I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Mar 7, 2008 4:52 PM EST up reply actions

yes!

classy move Belichek...Quitter

by jrose643 on Mar 7, 2008 5:55 PM EST up reply actions

Lowry's Replacement

Sanchez has had no command so far this spring and has never shown the ability to consistently control the strike zone in the majors. He needs to go down to Fresno and start there until he's proven he can maintain command.

Pat Misch does not have Sanchez' ceiling, but he's ready to do whatever it is he's going to do in the majors now. Give him the ball. If he fails, Lowry or Sanchez will be ready by then. If he pitches well, you have another potential trade chip.

I actually voted for Merkin Valdez. Merkin his throwing hard with good command and reportedly had an effective slider and changeup in his most recent outing where he struck out the side on 3 called strikes. Bochy commented that his secondary stuff was good enough that he was freezing the hitters.

Merkin was a very effective starter in the lower minors until they started jerking him around between levels and roles and before he got hurt. Talk about ceiling. He has the highest of all!

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 7, 2008 12:22 AM EST reply actions

I liked your pick

I liked your pick of Perkin' Merkin as the guy to replace Noah Lowry, Dr. When I saw that there was one vote for Merkin, I wondered who had the foresight to do so.

I considered Merkin, but after his arm surgery I consider him to be a reliever for a while. So I voted for Patrick Misch.

Kevin Correia is already the Giants' #5 starter, de facto if not yet named. So while I was tempted to vote for him since he will move up in the rotation and "replace" Noah in a manner of speaking, I refrained.

I'm still disappointed in Brian Sabean's not trading Noah at or before the trade deadline last season. Once Noah and Matt Morris had pitched well for a month and a half or so, I began pitching trading them, feeling their value would never be higher.

Hindsight is 20/20, but it is likely the Giants would have gotten more for Morris if they had traded him earlier -- and now the Giants are at least temporarily unable to trade Lowry at all.

Unfortunately Brian doesn't ask for my advice. :)

by sharksrog on Mar 7, 2008 3:19 AM EST up reply actions

Wow

We agreed on something, and so far we're the only two. I also think it's worth giving Valdez a shot.

What have they got to lose?

by Yakker on Mar 7, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions

Good Call Doc

I haven't been able to listen to any of the spring games, nor am I able to make the trip down to AZ, so my comments about Sanchez are based on what I've seen of him the last few years.

Misch just seems like a younger version of Kirk Reuter with a better curve. I know Woody was effective and had some good years, but breaking balls aside, Reuter = Lowry = Misch. I dunno, that's nice while it's cheap, but when they get older and more expensive I become less enamored with that type of pitcher.

I spent the last few minutes thinking of why to take Sanchez over Valdez. Given Sanchez's control issues, which got ugly at the end of last year, I can't think of a reason. Good call Doc!

I'm proud to have seen #756

by Azantor on Mar 7, 2008 4:33 PM EST up reply actions

Lowry

is so crap it doesn't really matter anyways

by pedrophile on Mar 7, 2008 12:33 AM EST reply actions

Crap?

Now THAT is a bunch of crap!

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 7, 2008 12:36 AM EST up reply actions

Worst case

Worst case if he is healthy, Noah is probably going to be at least an average #4 starter. IIRC, the average #4 starter's ERA is somewhere around 5.00 or perhaps a little above.

I thought the Giants should trade Noah because I believed him to be declining (pretty much the same logic I used in NOT approving their signing of Barry Zito), not because I felt he was or is lousy.

by sharksrog on Mar 7, 2008 3:21 AM EST up reply actions

you know what's crap?

a 1:1 K:BB ratio. fine lefty to have in the back of a rotation but, with those mechanics, don't expect to see him often.

by larry on Mar 7, 2008 11:42 AM EST up reply actions

Sorry

40-31 with an ERA of 4 over 3 seasons is not crap. It's not ace material, but it's also not crap.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 7, 2008 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

wins? are you serious?

ERA is a bit better but still not a great measure. look at the peripherals. not good and trending worse. look at the bone spur in his elbow. not good and trending worse. you guys are stuck with him, of course, so by all means take the optimistic route. but crap, while not particularly poetic, is probably apt for anyone with less than a rooting interest.

by larry on Mar 7, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions

That's Different

The original "crapper" said that Lowry was crap so it doesn't matter if he's hurt. That's a whole lot different than saying he's crap because he's hurt. Peripheral stats don't win games. A good ERA generally does. An ERA of 4 isn't great, but it's also far from crap.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 7, 2008 1:49 PM EST up reply actions

the guy said he was crap

i think that statement encompasses everything about him. including the fact that he's injury prone, has a spur in his elbow that shut him down early last year and contributed to his present forearm issues, and, overall, has rather poor mechanics.

peripheral stats, over the long run, tell you a heck of a lot more about how good a pitcher is and will be than wins or ERA. you know what also wins games? receiving about a half run more run support than your team's average RS.

by larry on Mar 7, 2008 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

Noah

Noah got all the runs the Giants couldn't get for Matt Cain. :)

by sharksrog on Mar 7, 2008 3:02 PM EST up reply actions

You are correct

You are correct that ERA is far more important to team wins than peripheral stats. Unfortunately we need look no further than Barry Zito to see that declining peripherals often lead to increasing ERA's.

by sharksrog on Mar 7, 2008 3:01 PM EST up reply actions

That's Fine

If you want to point to that and say you think Lowry will pitch like crap in the future, OK. He hasn't pitched like crap in the past and he isn't crap.

I know it's ancient history now, but I attended a game at AT&T where Noah pitched one of the finest games I can remember seeing or hearing a Giants pitcher pitch when he struck out something like 13 Cincy Reds with a devastating changeup. I think Wily Mo Pena is still trying to get back into the shoes he left behind on one of those swings!

There have been times when Lowry pitched with great stuff. There were also a lot of times when he didn't have good stuff. There were times he pitched and was obviously not right physically. He always, always pitched with tenacity, and he got results.

If you want to say his career is already on a downward trajectory, well, I think that's pretty obvious. Just don't say Noah Lowry is crap or defend others who say that.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 7, 2008 5:17 PM EST up reply actions

you must have a lowry jersey, eh

why shouldn't we say a player is crap if we think a player is crap? it's called an opinion. while the word is perhaps a bit coarse, those of us who do say he's "crap" aren't just doing so without substantiating it.

by larry on Mar 7, 2008 5:57 PM EST up reply actions

No I Don't....

as a matter of fact. Calling a player who has done what Noah Lowry has done for the Giants crap is not just coarse, it's disgusting and just plain wrong. I'm sorry, but a 40-31 record with a 4 ERA is not crap.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 7, 2008 11:46 PM EST up reply actions

fine, it wasn't crap

it's just highly misleading. and he is crap now. happy?

by larry on Mar 8, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions

Precise

Noah's precise one-to-one K/BB ratio is indeed pretty awful. To my way of thinking, the only two mistakes Brian Sabean made with his two lefthanded starters last season was signing Barry Zito and not trading Noah Lowry.

by sharksrog on Mar 7, 2008 9:25 PM EST up reply actions

K/BB

K/BB doesn't win or lose games. Lowry has been a good pitcher for the Giants right up to the moment of his injury at the end of last year.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 7, 2008 11:42 PM EST up reply actions

Indeed

Indeed K/BB doesn't win games. Outscoring the opponent does. But a declining K/BB ratio can often indicate a future erosion in ERA, which would make it more difficult to outscore the opponents in the future.

I certainly agree that Noah Lowry didn't pitch like crap last season -- but he also didn't pitch anywhere near as well as his ERA and in particular not nearly as well as his won-loss record would imply.

You knew last May that Noah was pitching over his head, right Dr.?

by sharksrog on Mar 8, 2008 1:55 AM EST up reply actions

DrB

I'm not saying he WAS crap, I'm saying he IS crap.

Yeah, he did some nice things for the Giants. But everything has declined and now is crap. He should have been traded last year.

by pedrophile on Mar 8, 2008 8:08 AM EST up reply actions

Lowry...

Is soooo bad. Maybe the giants will actually give a minor leaguer a chance at the majors. Oh wait, i forgot its the Giants.

by deadboy on Mar 7, 2008 6:04 AM EST reply actions

Giants 3B Options

You just proved that you pretty much don't know anything about the Giants. While they have systematically blocked their position prospects, the few they have produced, they have successfully brought a steady stream of pitching prospects to the majors. In fact, Noah Lowry was one himself just a little over 3 years ago. Do the names Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Kevin Correia, Brad Hennessey and Brian Wilson ring any bells? If not, they are all pitchers on the Giants MLB roster who have come up through their farm system in recent years.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 7, 2008 7:56 AM EST up reply actions

Oops!

The memory brought up an old title. Should have simply said "Giants."

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 7, 2008 7:57 AM EST up reply actions

+1

But he probably meant position players. Then again, you'd actually NEED a decent position prospect to justify any MLB at-bats anyhow. They did a horrible job with Linden though, and they're in the middle of it with Lewis, and they'll mess up Nate too. Not that any of those guys were/are potential stars, but they could've/could been/be productive regulars.

I'm proud to have seen #756

by Azantor on Mar 7, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions

The Giants pitching staff

4 of their 5 starters are homegrown (whether or not you're counting Lowry).

Their closer, and the likely setup man, are products of their farm system (with the former spending most of his time in the minors last year).

And of the other 4-5 pitchers who should be in the bullpen, it's very likely 2-3 of them will be homegrown as well. And one of the non-homegrown ones who may take up said spot will be a Rule 5 draftee...which is giving a minor leaguer a shot, isn't it?

Geeze.

by BruteSentiment on Mar 7, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions