Lincecum from Behind

Any pitcher can become injured. After not doing nearly as much throwing over the winter as usual, Tim strained his groin early spring training. He missed one start, throwing a bullpen instead. Had it been during the regular season, I doubt Tim would have missed the start, even as cautious as the Giants have (properly) been with him.

But, yes, Tim has yet to have an arm injury, even though scouts worried about it due to his small stature and violent delivery. I hate to criticize those scouts, but they failed to realize that "different" could be better, just as it could be worse. Tim's motion is indeed different, but it uses his entire body perhaps more than any pitcher in history. Pitching mechanics "expert" Will Carroll has even wondered aloud that if Tim is as successful as Will believes he will be, if other pitchers can be taught to pitch as Tim does.

Well, Tim's dad would certainly believe so. While Tim is by far his greatest product (in more ways than one), Chris has taught many young pitchers to use their bodies more completely. He has taken kids who have never been able to have pitching success before and made them into good pitchers. He taught Tim's older brother Sean the same method, and Sean might have been quite good as well. But Sean twice injured his right shoulder playing football, effectively ending his pitching career.

Ironically, while Tim's size hurt him, Sean is actually a physical specimen, much taller and more muscular than Tim (although Tim has tremendous strength for his lean frame).

Incidentally, Carroll said two winters ago that he would take Tim as his pitcher for the next ten years. This past winter he said he wouldn't trade Tim for any other pitcher in the game. Given that Will likely knows more about pitching mechanics than all the rest of us put together here (with the notable exception of Husker Bob), I would say that Tim's chance of avoiding injury is better that of than most pitchers.

When I lobbied John to move Tim above Phil Hughes and Homer Bailey as his top pitching prospects of last winter, one of the points I made was that both Phil and Homer had missed time due to injury, while Tim had yet to have even a sore arm (nor use ice) despite having thrown many more pitches than either of the two younger pitchers. Then last season both Phil and Homer missed time due to injury, while Tim threw over 175 healthy innings.

My guess is that John now ranks Tim above Homer (John?), although I wouldn't be critical if he still ranks the younger Hughes higher. I think that would be wrong, but an opinion that could be defended. I think it now would be pretty tough to form a logical argument for Bailey over Lincecum, despite their two years' age differential.

I was glad the Giants pulled Tim after only 67 pitches Friday night. I'm sure they would liked to have seen him come closer to the 96 he threw in his previous six-inning outing, but there was a light rain throughout Tim's outing on Friday. 67 pitches were just fine -- particularly given that they turned out so well.

This is a generalization, but I would say that when Tims' stuff is exploding, he gets lots of strikeouts and air outs. When his control is particularly on, he gets many more ground outs. That doesn't mean he doesn't still strike out a considerable number, however. Remember, last season Tim struck out 97 while yielding only 16 walks when he got his first pitch over. And once he got two strikes on batters, they hit a paltry .130 against him, as he struck out nearly half the batters he got two strikes on.

Tim's 30.9% strikeout rate in his brief career as a minor leaguer was the highest since that figure began being measured a decade ago. My point is that Tim is already darn good -- and that his ceiling could be nearly off the charts.

Which pitcher would YOU rather have than Tim? I can think of many guys for whom an argument could be made. But I can't think of a single pitcher one could conclusively say is a better long-term prospect than Tim.

Oh, and should he indeed stay healthy, he has good genes. His dad was clocked at 88 mph. Not that that is a great major league fastball (in fact it is likely a bit below average). But then again, Chris was 55 years old at the time.

Could that be why Tim wears number 55? :)

Tim had three very good pitches last season, although it took Bengie Molina a long time to catch on to the curve and especially the change, the latter of which was actually Tim's most effective pitch last season. I really haven't seen him throw the slider much (at least that I have been able to detect), although gameday had him throwing a handful (and nary a curve) in his last exhibition start.

I still think the most important pitch for Tim is strike one, with the second-most important being strike two. If Tim's first pitch is a strike, he doesn't walk many. And if he gets two strikes on a batter, regardless of the number of balls, he is almost even money to strike the guy out.

If his new slider is a strikeout pitch as he believes, he might become BETTER than even money in that situation. Gameday had five of his strikeouts on change ups, three on fastballs and one on a slider in his last outing. Last season Tim got a lot of strikeouts with his hammer curve, although I felt the size of the hammer declined toward the end of the season.