Predictions for 2008

by John Sickels on Mar 30, 2008 3:30 PM EDT Comment 17 comments

Predictions for 2008.

Note that while I am proud of my track record with prospects, my predictions in regards to pennant races are usually not particularly good. Nevertheless, here is how I see it.

Pennant Races: Yankees win the AL East, Tigers win the AL Central, Angels win the AL West, Red Sox win the Wild Card. American League Cy Young goes to C.C. Sabathia, who goes 20-8, 2.57 and leads the league in strikeouts. AL MVP is Miguel Cabrera, who hits .335 with 45 homers and 135 RBI, just missing the Triple Crown because he finishes second in batting average behind Ichiro. Rookie of the Year is Jacoby Ellsbury. Tigers win the AL Pennant.

In the National League, the Mets win the NL East, the Brewers win the NL Central, the Rockies win the NL West, the Cubs win the Wild Card. National League Cy Young goes to Johan Santana, who goes 21-7, 2.33 and leads the league in strikeouts. NL MVP is Prince Fielder who hits 39 homers by the All Star Break but hits "just" 19 in the second half to finish at 58. Rookie of the Year is Fukodome. Brewers win the NL Pennant.

Tigers beat the Brewers in the World Series, 4 games to 1. TV ratings are very poor.

Answering the True/False questions below:

Torii Hunter: answer is TRUE, he will hit something around what I mentioned in the comment and be considered somewhat disappointing, though he'll continue to play great defense. Perhaps the bitter Twins fan in me talking?

American League ROY: False, Ellsbury will win it.

Santana Trade: Borderline False: five years from now Twins fans will still be bitching even though Mulvey and Humber turn out OK. Gomez never learns to hit, and Guerra has lots of injuries.

National League ROY: True. Fukodome wins it.

Felix Pie: False. He hits .266/.321/.430 this year, but breaks out big in 2009.

Homer Bailey: False. Expectations with him have been tempered sufficiently by most analysts. I have concerns about him due to the command issue but not enough to drop him down the lists further than he's already fallen.

Edinson Volquez: Borderline False. Volquez will pitch brilliantly at times and throw a one-hitter in late July, but he will have enough bad starts to keep his ERA around 4.50 or so.

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Comments

i like it John

... its very similar to mine :-)

I have the Tigers beating the brew crew in 6... and I have CC and Prince receiving those same accolades as well

by daveh33 on Mar 30, 2008 3:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I dont know about CC

If he does that well, I have a hard time seeing Detroit winning the division.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Mar 30, 2008 4:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well,

I don't see him or Carmona repeating like last year, but if CC wins the Cy Young and Carmona gets worse the Indians probably won't be able to beat the Tigers

by baseballbrett13 on Mar 31, 2008 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What about

the Vozquez true/false question?

by SBcaptain2 on Mar 30, 2008 4:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

*Volquez

by SBcaptain2 on Mar 30, 2008 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

DA Yankees

I just don't see it with them..i am not impressed by their pitching...Giambi at 1B? I think the wild card goes to Cleveland....Yankees possibly slipping to 3rd in the East behind Toronto

"our deepest fears are not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fears is that we are powerful beyong measure."

by gashousegang on Mar 30, 2008 8:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I politely disagree

I say that the playoffs will consist of Boston, Cleveland, Seattle and Detroit in the AL, and New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and Atlanta.

I think that the Tigers made a monstrous improvement to an already very good squad with Cabrera and Willis, but when you consider how much Ordonez, Polanco, Sheffield and Renteria could decline, there may be little to no overall improvement in performance. The rotation will be similar to last year: Verlander backed by 4 solid but not great pitchers.

The Angels don't get on base and with a staff like the Mariners it will be hard to win like that.

The Brewers will have even worse fielding than usual... And now they have Gagne. They're going to be around .500.

The Rockies are certainly very good but I don't think they have enough depth in the pitching staff. The Dodgers are just good from top to bottom, hitting and pitching.

Lastly, the Yankees simply don't have anything that I consider that great. A-rod is going to lose the 15-20 homers that he always loses after a great year which will bring down his overall numbers. Posada will become human. Mariano will breakdown, Chamberlain takes over closer duties by August and does very well.

by METSMETSMETS on Mar 30, 2008 9:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

D-Backs?

by demondeaconsbaseball on Mar 31, 2008 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hahaha

homer?

{Lastly, the Yankees simply don't have anything that I consider that great.}

I guess ARod who has an insane career average and is a lock for the HOF if he retires today isn't great?
I guess Jeter who has a great career and is a lock for the HOF if he retires today isn't great?
I guess Joba isn't looking like a kick-ass prospect?
I guess Cano isn't looking like one of the top 2B in all baseball?
I guess Hughes isn't looking like one of the top prospects?

btw: mentioning Willis as an improvement to Detroit is really shooting yourself in the foot. Dontrelle is rotten. Unless he cleans up his control he will be heading to the glue factory. Yeah, he is a horse. A dead horse.

ps: I'm no Yankee fan, can't stand them. Just not a fool ;)

by pedrophile on Apr 1, 2008 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Explanations

The D'backs were mainly a fluke last year. Their Pythagenport record didn't even have them winning 80 games. If Upton can pull through than I'm a believer. Otherwise I like the Dodgers better.

On the Yankees -- Yeah, A-rod's led a great career, and Jeter has done very well. But they are past their prime. PECOTA puts A-rod at 36 HR and a .298 average. I'd certainly take it, but the production drop predicted is still significant. Jeter, Posada and Matsui are also predicted for a dropoff. Yes, Cano is very good, but not enough to make up for the performance they are to lose, and the mediocre rotation. PECOTA and ZiPS project dropoffs in performance from Pettitte, Wang and Rivera.

Lots of teams have prospects. But how well do you honestly think Hughes will perform next year? Kennedy?

The point is, the Yankees have done nothing to improve, and unless you expect A-rod to hit 50 HR and Posada to hit .330 again, they're not going to be that great.

by METSMETSMETS on Apr 1, 2008 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My only argument is with your statement they have no-one great

Joba is a great setup man
ARod is a great 3B
Jeter is a great SS.

I'm not sure anyone would agree with you that ARod isn't great just because of pecota. It's a bold prediction but I think terribly wrong.

I just don't understand how you can try and say they have no-one great. That makes as much sense as me saying the Mets have no-one great because:

1) Wright isn't good enough to make up for Pedro's injuries.
2) Santana should decline because of his peripherals declining
3) Reyes is a one trick pony

If anyone said that to you I'm thinking you would laugh or have a fit. Maybe both ;). Well, that's what you just said about the Yankees.

by pedrophile on Apr 1, 2008 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Has Torii Hunter played "great defense"

at any point in the past five years? UZR thinks he was pretty darn awesome in 2003 (+20 runs), but since then has been on a fairly steady decline to the point where he was below average last year. I tend to believe UZR over anything else, including lying eyes.

Also, what about the Barton/Gomez question? Or does saying Gomez never learns to hit in the Santana comment imply that you think Barton will be better?

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Mar 31, 2008 3:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

UZR

why would you believe UZR over your own eyes or scouts eyes? It's a stat that is based on flawed data that is non-factual.

From what I hear Hunter and A.Jones both had their D decline a fair bit. It seems that Jones declined more and they are still both plus defenders but not cream of the crop any more.

by pedrophile on Apr 1, 2008 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eyes

My eyes tell me that Hunter has lost at least one step in the field. He's no longer a great defender. It's not surprising; most guys slow in their thirties.

Where Anne hath a will, Anne Hathaway.

by woodstein52 on Apr 1, 2008 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

my eyes tell me he has lost a step and isn't a great defender any more. They tell me he is above average though.

UZR tells us he was below average though. I don't agree with that.

by pedrophile on Apr 1, 2008 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because eyes and memory distort the truth

more than numbers that are absolutely factual.

Living in an AL Central city, I've seen Hunter play a lot. But I haven't seen him play as much as Twins fans. And, most importantly, I haven't seen him play every game. I've missed some great plays, missed some boneheaded ones, and didn't see all the routine ones either. But you know what has? UZR.

It's the same thing that makes one guy clutch because you saw (and happened to remember) him hit a game winning home run once or twice, but the outs you didn't see or remember aren't factored into the equation. If the numbers accurately represent the information (and I believe UZR is the best at this for defense, though it's best to look at more than one metric of course), they're always always always better than relying on the distortions of perception and memory. This has been proven time and time again, not just with regards to baseball, either.

However, since you indirectly asked: my eyes tell me this about Hunter: He's always played deeper than the typical center fielder and that has allowed him to make the spectacular home-run-robbing catch, as well as some pretty incredible diving catches on balls where he has to come in. It also means it's significantly easier to drop a single in front of him. I don't think Hunter was ever cream of the crop defensively. A flair for the dramatic doesn't mean he caught more balls than everybody else.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Apr 2, 2008 2:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

the numbers are most definitely NOT factual. Do you realize, I hope you do, that the "numbers" are based on someone's eyes watching the game. Unless I'm missing what UZR is doing, which is possible. But almost every defensive metric does in fact use a judgement call. And then of course people start saying about "facts" that are most definitely not facts.

Almost every defensive metric is horribly flawed. Some are better than others. But for each metric you can point to at least a couple players that look either great or terrible based on the metric but everyone (fans, players, coaches, scouts) agrees the rating is wrong.

by pedrophile on Apr 2, 2008 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs