Charlie Morton, Braves, SP...

by beastball on Mar 3, 2008 9:41 AM EST Comment 28 comments

So, I keep hearing about this guy. He's got a big pitcher's body, he's 24, has a great curve, throws mid-90s, and an above average change. He's going to be in AAA.

The deal is that his control has been horrible since he was drafted. However, the story is that something clicked for him late last summer, and he's been fairly dominant since then (through August, into the fall league, and now into spring).

Cox seems to love the guy. However, I can't find any major publication that has written anything about the guy so I can't confirm his stuff or this idea that he's turned it around.

Ok, what else do people know about this guy? Has anyone seen him pitch? Is he for real or just another over-hyped spring prospect?

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meh

I'll go with the middle ground: he's got a 50/50 shot at being a positive contributer at the major league level this year. Stuff's fine, but you have to wait and see if the command is real. Either way, I think you're looking more at a back end guy than a front-line starter.

by mraver on Mar 3, 2008 9:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Curious to know why you think that...

If it's just a gut feel, then that's fine, but if the guy can control a great curve, mid-90s FB, and an above average change, has a big pitcher's body, then why would you feel he's still a back end guy?

I got the description of his stuff from various Brave articles and blogs, so not the best sources in terms of bias, but it's all I've got.

If his control gains aren't for real, then he won't even make the majors. But if his gains are for real, then the description of his stuff that I've found seem to indicate something better than back end.

Was there something you'd found or read that would make you believe he's a back-end guy? Like that his velocity is more low-90s/high-80s or something?

by beastball on Mar 3, 2008 10:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I mean...

Maybe he transforms from a guy who didn't make prospect lists (or John's book for that matter) to a front-line starter, but I don't think there's a whole lot of precedent. Don't get me wrong, as a Braves fan, I'd LOVE to see us develop a better-than-average starter, but I'd be surprised if Morton is it.

by mraver on Mar 3, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I agree with you...

I was really surprised to see him catching some spring headlines, and then not find him listed in any of my prospect mags. I need to check a few older BA Prospect Handbooks to see if he ever made the Braves top 30.

Not to mention that he emerged, somewhat, statistically in the AFL, but didn't crack the top 20, and only got a brief mention in the chat.

I'm really not sure what to make of it. My only suspicion is that his reported velocity is exaggerated. You don't have to do much to be mentioned somewhere if you are throwing mid-90s gas. So the fact he's not mentioned, hasn't been injured, or anything like that makes me somewhat skeptical that his velocity is really as high as they say, and as I said, if he's got ordinary velocity then he's bullpen bound at best.

On the flip side, most prospectors are age-ist to a certain extent, and if he really is a late bloomer, then he may be getting overlooked because he's 24 and really hasn't done anything noteworthy from a statistical standpoint.

by beastball on Mar 3, 2008 1:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wait what

there isn't a lot of precedent for non top prospects to become good MLBers?

by nms on Mar 3, 2008 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not a lot, no, at least not recently

Obviously there are some, but they're clearly the exception rather than the rule. It's possible that something clicked, but I maintain that the odds are against Morton ever being more than a back-end guy.

by mraver on Mar 4, 2008 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmmm

There are a lot of good MLB-ers.

But only a few can ever be "top" prospects, by definition....I think it's quite common for good MLbers to not have ever been top prospects.

gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Mar 5, 2008 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just found this scouting report...

from when he was drafted, from a regional BA report...

Charlie Morton, rhp
Morton isn't nearly as developed as Rosen, but his ceiling is considerably higher. The 6-foot-4, 180-pounder has an ideal pitcher's frame with long arms and the chance for above-average stuff. He throws a fastball at 87-90 mph now and may reach 94-95 one day because he has excellent arm speed. He has little feel for his craft right now, but he has command of a go-to breaking ball that should have a late, hard break with more work.

by beastball on Mar 3, 2008 10:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

MOrton

Probably similar to you, Artie, this guy has popped up on my screen only recently (last two weeks), mostly from buzz trickling down from Braves pubs/blogs. I don't have anything concrete to add, other than that the sources I saw also quoted him as a 92-94, with a + CB.

Now, what I read was that he had tinkered with his delivery to get more downward drive on the ball and his command had improved noticeably.....but that was only for a few starts last season, maybe not even until fall ball (AFL).

All in all, I've filed this under my own "watch closely", but not "run out and grab". There are a lot of guys who tinker, and the local pubs get excited, and it doesn't amount to squat. OTOH, it sounds like he really has the stuff to be solid if something really has clicked.

No citatations for you, because I think I;m just recycling all the blog news that you probably already have. It's a vicious cycle....

gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Mar 3, 2008 10:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I just found a BA team update...

that had him in the low-90s, and really, being the velocity junkie that I am, seems that his ceiling will be limited by his velocity, if he's mid-90s, then I could see him as a mid-rotation guy, if he's low-90s, then he could be a back-end, long man.

The consistent things in his description have been the top notch curve, and above average change, then the velocity reports are a little different as are the reports of a fourth pitch.

Well, he pitches for the Braves again today. I'm hoping someone who posts will catch the game, or see it somewhere, and give some velocity reports.

I like him because he's big, has the secondary stuff, may have the velocity, his older, playing at a high level for an org that can develop pitchers, and has opportunity given the backend state of the Braves rotation. So he's a guy I'm leaning towards grabbing, just want more information on his velocity.

by beastball on Mar 3, 2008 10:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Braves are on MLBTV today - shouldn't be hard to catch...

Whether they have a functioning gun hooked up is another story...

by Dfarth on Mar 3, 2008 11:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kevin Hart

is another guy with an unremarkable minor league track record that is getting rave reviews from his manager and seems like a different pitcher in camp.

While you are all tracking Morton, take a look at Hart- he could be a real sleeper in Cubbyland.

by yoshimi on Mar 3, 2008 2:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Morton

He is included in the Scout.com 2008 Prospects Guide magazine. They have him listed as the #13 prospect in the Braves organization. The write-up mentions that he performed well in the AFL and threw a five-inning no-hitter for the Peoria Javelinas with Bobby Cox and Roger McDowell in attendance and he is drawing comparisons to Adam Wainwright.

by daser on Mar 3, 2008 2:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nice...

Thanks!

Do you have an account with Scout.com? I often get directed to their site, but haven't signed up yet. Do you like their magazine?

by beastball on Mar 3, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Scout.com magazine

No, I don't have an account. I bought their magazine last year and this year. I kinda like looking at it just to get a different set of opinions, but I'm not sure how valuable that is. I am withholding judgement until I have a few more years to evaluate their lists, but my feeling is that their rankings are not as consistently accurate as other more well-known sources like the BA book or Sickels' book. It is definitely not as in-depth, and to me that makes it seem like there is not as much effort behind it, but I don't know if that is the case.

by daser on Mar 3, 2008 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Game

Just got done pitching in the game today. Fastball was right around 90-93 and he pumped it up into the mid-90's a couple times it looked like. The curveball was pretty inconsistent but you could definitely see the potential, unfortunately it hung up a lot of the time. The changeup was downright nasty. It sat at right around 77-78 mph and has ridiculous movement along with good arm speed. The command looked pretty average and if it stays average, I can see him as a 4th starter or so, if it improves, I could see him as a #2 or 3.

by was385 on Mar 3, 2008 2:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Morton

As a Braves fan, I have been following Morton for awhile, and I am baffled by the hype surrounding him this off-season. He has been mediocre or worse for a half a decade, and then all of sudden he hits 96 on the gun, pitches half decent for a couple dozen IPs, and every Braves' blog on the web busts a nut over him. This is just classic Braves' front office hype, only this time there were no actually decent candidates to hype in the upper minors, and they had to settle for anointing a scrub like Morton "the next big thing." I'll wait for some actual results before getting excited myself.

by aCone419 on Mar 3, 2008 3:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree for the most part, but...

I'm not sure what you mean by "classic Braves' front office hype". Are you talking about Marte? 'Cause everyone loved Marte.... Maybe Salty? 'Cause it turned out the FO was right; '06 was just a down year. I actually tend to believe the Braves' FO when they're really high on guy (like Escobar this year). At least, I tend to put some of

All that said, I tend to think that Morton is getting too much credit for that endlessly-referenced 5 innings in the AFL. I think he's got a legit shot to be a useful ML player, but I don't think it's very likely that he becomes an impact starter.

by mraver on Mar 3, 2008 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Morton

is exactly the kind of guy stat heads and prospect list lovers will miss.

The Braves drafted him a few years ago knowing he would be a project and he has been on their radar all along.

No his track record isn't great but he is a cold weather kid with great potential who has finally started to realize it.

by nms on Mar 3, 2008 7:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

BA Prospect Handbooks

Have him listed as a reliever in their organizational depth charts in every year except for 2005 when he was the Braves' #18 prospect. The only other time he made the top 30 was the previous year when he came in #28.

In both years, they said his curveball was his best pitch and his fastball resided in the low 90s. He needed better command and a better changeup to be anything more than a MR.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell05 on Mar 3, 2008 9:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

changeup

was nasty today. 78 mph with great movement going down and away from lefties and good arm speed.

by was385 on Mar 3, 2008 10:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was gonna say...

He pitched yesterday. I think he went two innings, walked one, no runs allowed. His control wasn't great (had a couple 3-ball counts, not a lot of quick outs), but the change-up, which is definitely his 3rd best pitch, sounded like it was really fooling hitters. He got a at least a couple swing-and-misses from it.

Adding a 3rd above-average pitching would be huge for his prospects as a starter.

by mraver on Mar 4, 2008 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

consistency

I think all his hope lies in consistency with the curve. If He can get that and at least average command, he has would have a low-90's fastball with good sink to it, and a plus curve and changeup. That should be good enough for middle of the rotation and better command could mean even greater things. Max, he becomes a #2, but chances are I think that he settles into a #3 or 4 spot at the majors.

by was385 on Mar 4, 2008 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Morton.

The rapid turn around in his fortune is due to a change in his mechanics and a shift back to the rotation. He'll have at least 20 starts in AAA this year before they even consider bringing him up to to the bigs. He has a solid fastball, a spotty (yet potentially plus fastball) and a pretty wicked change. I look for him to be in the mix for the 2009 rotation in Atlanta after a potential September call up this year. If everything holds together, he can be a middle-of-the-rotation SP. That said, he could kick it up another notch to frontline status or regress a bit a still be a backend type guy.

Braves fan since 1995.

by ejruiz on Mar 4, 2008 8:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

not the scouting report I've heard at all

I always heard his curve was his calling card, his FB was above-average, and his change was pretty much a work in progress.

by mraver on Mar 4, 2008 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

This from espn http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=mlbdk2k8prospects2

57. Charlie Morton, SP, Braves
Projected 2008 role: starter-in-waiting at Triple-A
Here is a deep sleeper alert, as Morton never has had the production commensurate with his stuff. He has put up terrible numbers in the minors, including a 4.29 ERA and 1.47 WHIP as a reliever at Double-A. But he might have turned the corner as a starter at the Arizona Fall League after making some mechanical changes to keep him from throwing across his body. He showed a mid-90s fastball and solid secondary pitches and finally seemed to find consistent control, putting him in contention for a big league role in 2008. I got a lot of the same vibe that I did while watching James Shields at the AFL in 2005.

You know after reading all these threads James Shields came to my mind also. I got lucky and nabbed Shields when a report came out similar to this... and i was rewarded.

by dantalbot1 on Mar 5, 2008 2:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

FWIW

Shields was a lot better in AA in 2005 than Morton was in AA last year. Shields was also starting whereas Morton was a reliever for most of that. The walks in particular are the biggest difference; Shields had 3 fewer over 35 MORE innings. Heck, Shields had better numbers (mostly BB rate) for his entire minor league career than Morton has had. Morton has historically walked a batter every two innings while Shields does it once every 3; that's a MAJOR difference right there.

I'm not saying Morton won't "break out". I just don't think it's especially likely.

by mraver on Mar 5, 2008 8:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs