Magglio Ordonez

by smk1363 on Mar 3, 2008 8:50 PM EST

Was last year a fluke season? He was unbelievably consistent during the entire season. I know he probably won't bat .363, but what can be expected of him?

Also:

I'm wondering about him because I've been offered him for my Ichiro in a 10 team re-draft h2h league. My team is absolutely stacked, but I'm just wondering who is the better bet.

I'm leaning towards no because I'm not sure about Magglio and all. Just wondering what you all think.

Roster:
C - Geovany Soto
1B - Paul Konerko
2B - Brian Roberts
3B - David Wright
SS - Carlos Guillen
OF - Matt Holliday
OF - Ichiro Suzuki
OF - Alex Rios
UT - Bobby Abreu

BN - Alex Gordon, Pat Burrell, Joey Votto, Stephen Drew

SP - CC Sabathia
SP - Justin Verlander
SP - Javier Vazquez
RP - Joe Nathan
RP - Bobby Jenks
P - Trevor Hoffman
P - Jonathan Broxton
P - Chad Billingsley

BN - Dustin McGowan, Jered Weaver, Rich Harden

Poll

Trade Ichiro for Magglio?

Yes

32 votes

No

65 votes

97 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 27 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

Hard to say

Maggs is going to come back down to career levels this year- thats a given. He'll still be good for a lot of doubles and probably 20 bombs, but he'll suck when it comes to stolen bases.

On the other hand, Ichiro has little power and is also getting up there in age. PECOTA has him dropping to about a .305 average, but he should still be stealing a lot of bags.

In the end though, you have a club with a lot of really good power hitters, and there's no reason not to stick with Ichiro's speed. It's a little closer than it looks, but I'd turn him down. Just my two cents, of course.

by demondeaconbaseball on Mar 3, 2008 9:42 PM EST reply actions

+1

Ina vacuum, I probably take Maggs over Ichiro, but you look like you could use the speed a little more. Oh, and Pecota is always down on Ichiro. It's like how all the systems are always high on Dan Johnson of the A's. I'd take it with a grain of salt.

by SuperBean on Mar 3, 2008 9:45 PM EST up reply actions

Not to mention

PECOTA has always failed with regards to Ichiro.

by Fett42 @ Minor League Ball on Mar 3, 2008 9:45 PM EST up reply actions

True

Still, he is getting up there. It's only a matter of time.

by demondeaconbaseball on Mar 3, 2008 11:14 PM EST up reply actions

thanks

I appreciate the fact that you actually took the time to explain your decision, makes me understand other people's input.

by smk1363 on Mar 3, 2008 9:46 PM EST up reply actions

There's a few projection systems

and defensive metrics that totally hate Ichiro, year after year. PECOTA is one of them, and he consistently exceeds his projection by a significant amount.

It's the fact that he's such a unique player -- pecota can't accoutn for that.

Oh, and definitely keep Ichiro.

by redwolf75 on Mar 3, 2008 11:05 PM EST up reply actions

PECOTA sucks at projecting Ichiro.

See Lies, Damned Lies from Nate Silver himself. He's just too historically unique for a system based on the macro level of baseball history to predict on.

As for age regression, keep category of player in mind. Slow sluggers retire early, speedy base stealers regress very nicely. Kenny Lofton, Rickey Henderson, Eddie Collins, Lou Brock, Otis Nixon, Ozzie Smith... All through the modern era this has been the trend.

Ichiro will more likely than not exceed many current players a couple years younger than him.

by elrey34 on Mar 4, 2008 12:12 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah

Four posts and the BP comments about Ichiro and I think I got it. ;)

And I kinda left Maggs's age out because I've read quite a bit about him still being solid tools and health-wise. Also, there's a bit of homerism in me, sad to say.

by demondeaconbaseball on Mar 4, 2008 12:15 AM EST up reply actions

It's cool.

I'm sure many people had to think about this more than you and I, a Mariners fan and a Tigers fan ; )

by elrey34 on Mar 4, 2008 12:21 AM EST up reply actions

This study

suggests that "Slow sluggers retire early, speedy base stealers regress very nicely" isn't necessarily true.

http://www.tangotiger.net/SpeedLead.htm

by thejd44 on Mar 4, 2008 3:30 AM EST up reply actions

I think the real difference

I think the real difference lies between speedsters and Three True Outcome type sluggers (Adam Dunn, Prince Fielder, Pronk) that have old-player skills like power and plate discipline. These players tend to age much faster than speedsters. However, going back to the original pot, someone like Magglio, who has adapted his swing to hit more line drives, is still likely to be fine since he still does hit for a high average. Maggs really isnt the prototypical slugger...

by demondeaconbaseball on Mar 4, 2008 10:17 AM EST up reply actions

I think the real difference

by demondeaconbaseball on Mar 4, 2008 10:17 AM EST up reply actions

Whoops...

Must have hit the post button twice. Sorry.

by demondeaconbaseball on Mar 4, 2008 10:17 AM EST up reply actions

That's a very interesting study.

But it's a slightly different issue. The issue is the best players who's value is centered around speed will outlast the best players who's value is centered around their bat. Just like the more median players "bat" players, the more median "speed" players probably won't last well through their 30s.

Also, Tango took their leadfooted twins for comparison; this will dispute that the faster one will age better. Again, that's not the issue I was talking about. In addition, I don't find his speedsters similar enough to his leadfooters. He took Tim Raines and compared him to Wade Boggs. Boggs was a much more talented hitter, and that tool itself could have made him a HOFer (it pretty much did), and he was talented enough to retain a large portion of it for so long. Just like other superstar hitters Manny Ramirez, Hank Aaron, Ken Griffey Jr. -- these are guys who just had much, much more hitting talent than anyone else. Raines was very talented in his own right, but more in an overall sense.

I'm not saying having speed means your hitting skills are going to last. That immediate correlation is obviously not true. More specifically, I'm saying that a majority of the best speedy players are going to outlast a majority of the best sluggers.

As a sidenote, thanks for the link. It was a good read. I always enjoy Tango's stuff.

by elrey34 on Mar 4, 2008 5:14 PM EST up reply actions

No one

sustains a .363 BA, espically not a right handed hitter in non-fenway parks.

I'd agree that in FB, you definately rather have Ichiro. much more consistent, much better count stats , much more versital, and much less injury worries.

Magglio is hardly a spring chicken too.

by RollingWave on Mar 3, 2008 11:37 PM EST reply actions

Depends on your league.

If it distinguishes center fielders from corner outfielders, Ichiro all the way. I find it too likely that Ordonez will regress back to 115 OPS+-ish, although there's a good chance he'll do better as well. But if your league lumps all outfielders together, it's even enough for you to pick whoever offers the numbers you need.

by elrey34 on Mar 4, 2008 12:19 AM EST reply actions

Which is it?

You said it's likely he'll regress, but there's a good chance he improves, nice hedge.

by killa on Mar 4, 2008 3:48 AM EST up reply actions

Ordonez had a .381 BABIP last year

With a 19.2 LD%. If you give him the BABIP ~= LD% + .12, he had an expected BABIP of around .312. This is right in line with his 2005 and 2006 results (.312 and .315 BABIP, respectively).

THT's Predicted OPS for 2007 for Ordonez gave him a .299/.376/.509 line. PECOTA projects him for a 2008 line of .307/.377/.485. This is generally his talent level with luck removed.

Basically he just had an incredibly flukish season. He's still a good player, but he's an .850-.900 OPS guy, not a 1.000+ one.

Ichiro also got lucky with balls in play last year, so he's unlikely to hit .350 again, but .320-.330 plus his steals is still pretty good. I think the two players are very comparable in value in a traditional fantasy league, and since you already have quite a bit of power, I'd stick with Ichiro.

by patsfan @ Minor League Ball on Mar 4, 2008 10:32 AM EST reply actions

BABIP

BABIP for hitter is not a .300 mean for everyone, is somone throw up a .350 BABIP for 3 to 4 year strait, that's probably his true talent level.

by RollingWave on Mar 4, 2008 1:21 PM EST up reply actions

Where did I say that about BABIP?

It's definitely a skill for hitters; guys with great speed or who hit a ton of line drives will post a higher BABIP.

We know that Maggs isn't particularly quick, so he needs to hit a gigantic amount of line drives to maintain a .381 BABIP. He didn't do this last year or in previous years. This is not close to his true talent level.

by patsfan @ Minor League Ball on Mar 4, 2008 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

You referenced it here:

"Ichiro also got lucky with balls in play last year"

by elrey34 on Mar 4, 2008 5:19 PM EST up reply actions

I don't really see the connection

between the comments, but at any rate, Ichiro did get lucky last year.

21.4 LD%, .316 BABIP
21.5 LD%, .349 BABIP
20.1 LD%, .389 BABIP

Since Ichiro gets a lot of infield hits, his BABIP should always be a bit higher than simply .12 + LD%. But it looks to me like he was unlucky in 2005 (.303 AVG) and lucky in 2007 (.351 AVG). While 2006 was about right (.322 AVG), which is why I pegged him for a .320-.330 AVG for 2008.

by patsfan @ Minor League Ball on Mar 5, 2008 11:55 AM EST up reply actions

You just asked where you said it.

I wasn't necessarily disputing your claims.

by elrey34 on Mar 5, 2008 2:04 PM EST up reply actions

I never said that there was a BABIP mean

for hitters; just that both players were lucky last year.

Anyways, not important.

by patsfan @ Minor League Ball on Mar 5, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions

maggs

having watched almost every tiger game last season, i can say it wasn't like maggs was getting lucky with his hits. he took some advice from edgar martinez and he's the closest thing to edgar that i can think of in the game today.

anyways, what maggs does is take every outside pitch to right field, usually for singles or doubles. teams started crowding the right-center gap with their defense so he started going down the line. when pitchers tried come inside, he hit an awful lot of homers. what i don't know though is if he's guessing outside or guessing inside or if he has the ability to hit both without guessing.

for this season, i don't see why he can't get back into that zone he had last season. plus he has miguel cabrera hitting behind him, so he's going to get even better pitches to hit. i would expect a slight down turn in his power (maybe he's not quite as quick on those inside pitches) but i think he keeps the right field approach and hits for average again. .340 or so with 20 hrs and a whole lot of rbis and runs scored.

but if i were you i'd keep ichiro.....steals are tough to get, but once you get a guy they're less likely to go away.

by thefume on Mar 4, 2008 10:34 AM EST reply actions

good question

This really is a simple question - steals or power. But no easy answer. While I don't think you really need Maggs' power, I don't think losing Ichiro's steals would hurt you that much either. You have plenty of guys to get you around 20 steals, and Roberts to get more. So I think your need for steals and power are about even, I think the players are about even. So to me that leaves two intangibles - 1) I think Ichiro is more consistent and you KNOW what you're going to get, or 2) who do you like better? If I was a Tigers fan, I'd make the trade. If I was a Mariners fan, I'd refuse the trade. Either way, I don't think you'll either help your team or harm the team.

by journeymen on Mar 4, 2008 1:03 PM EST reply actions

agreed

to be honest...one of the MAIN reasons I'm leaning towards no is because the guy with Magglio has no speed, but a ton of power, so this would actually make his team better. I clearly had the best draft and have the best team on paper, so I think I'm just gonna hold onto Ichiro.

by smk1363 on Mar 4, 2008 2:53 PM EST up reply actions