Around Cape Fear: First Base (Draft)
by wily mo on Mar 29, 2008 1:30 PM EDT
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PrintThis isn't really finished, but I feel bad about leaving the catchers hanging out there for so long without any support. Don't want 'em drooping. Plus I want to try and stay ahead of Silver over at BP. (I wrote this list up before his article came out last week.) So we'll make a quick pass at first base. Please leave comments.
From my old top 100:
Other candidates (quickly tiered):
... and a bunch of guys i don't really believe in at all...
I feel like there are more. I haven't even scanned the BA book for missing links yet. Not sure I can get to 30 real guys though. With 1B it's so hard to clear the bar offensively, as is well known.
I'm not ranking them quite yet; do throw out some other suggestions.
EDIT: from the suggestion box:
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Juan Miranda vs. Jeff Larish
I'm a Tigers fan, so I'm probably biased on this, but I think Larish is a much better player than Miranda. They are similar in age (Miranda is 6 months younger if his listed age is correct. BA says several Cuban sources say he is two years older than that listed age.). Larish is a more disciplined hitter and he has much more power. Larish also has above average athleticism for a first baseman and he has a much better glove than Miranda.
Miranda was in his first year of American ball
that could impact things a little. Also, if you look at his month by month splits, he got off to a slow start. Only .600 OPS in April as he adjusted, then he was killing the ball in a very difficult offensive league. He also had a poor August when he was dealing with injuries. He definitely is a mixed bag (age, glove, inability to hit lefties), but he still remains an intriguing bat, and I'm curious as to why you singled him out as opposed to another player.
Larish is interesting, no doubt. But his age works against him, especially when you don't have Cuban defection as an excuse.
I still have a smidgen of hope about Eric Duncan. He has Carlos Pena disease. If he could just learn how to hit line drives.... he still has a great eye at the plate, still hits for power, scouts still like how his swing looks. And for once, he's not far too young for his league. A breakout isn't likely to happen, but he's still worth watching nonetheless.
My favorite prospect on the list is Carter II. Not a believer in Barton at all, and Davis needs to improve the BB/K ratio and show that he can get by with a reasonable babip.
by number_twentyone on Mar 29, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
re
Larish killed the ball all year in the same league. I singled out Miranda because I have seen both him and Larish play and Larish is clearly the better hitter to me. I'm not familiar enough with the most of the other guys on the list to pick on them :)
this group is really
uninspiring.... I guess if Heyward and Laporta were included it'd look much better.... but I guess Heyward is an OF for sure now... and Laporta is until Prince leaves
yeah
there's a bunch of guys in the 1B/3B/OF categories who could be moved around. i'm mostly trying to group them where i think they'll wind up in the majors, although i've left a couple of pretty borderline guys alone (montero in C, for example). laporta was a close call, but since he's liable to spend at least a few years in the OF given his current org situation i'm leaving him there. (heyward i've never even heard it suggested he's anything but an OF.)
Craig Cooper
San Diego. Gets some Wally Joyner comps, and PECOTA seems to dig him (has him as like the 10th best 1B under 25). I would rank him b/w Rizzo and Snyder. But, then, I am drunk.
+1 for drunkenness.
yes, as i said, i put this together before the PECOTA article came out - i saw him in there, i'd never really heard of him before. will add.
Beau Mills
He'll end up at first. Maybe Allen Craig (he seems more likely to stay at 3rd than Mills).
ah yes
mills, that's the one i was trying to remember. also borderline, but i left him in 3B because of that whole shoulder injury thing. i agree it seems fairly likely he'll wind up here, but i don't think we can condemn him to the darkest pits of the defensive spectrum without giving him at least, say, a two-month trial while he's fully healthy.
My deep secret toy
Chris Nash, Indians. I think he's Chris Carter II 2.0, but with more athleticism. Physically looks like a young, trimmer Ryan Howard.
Also, I think Angel Villalona has been officially moved over to 1st.
Also, a suspect: Erik Lis.
Beau
I think it may be closer to being able to do that tahn you may think but, I'll check it out more. He was playing 1b in spring training and some things I read from Tribe brass fellas seemed more resigned to letting him just play 1b.
I also think he's the best of this bunch and is going to have an unbelievably great season this year in the minors.
Some lower level guys to watch
Lucas Duda
Osvaldo Morales
Tyler Flowers
Younger guys with decent Rookie and Low A lines.
I agree, the list is pretty lame but as has been said a lot of good hitting 3B/OF will end up at 1B eventually.
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women and Irish Whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
cool.
duda's already on the list, and i put flowers in with the catchers. never done heard of morales.
Flowers
FYI - According to the Cube he played 69 at 1B last year and 15 at Catcher. At 6'4" and 245 I'm thinking he's a First Sacker.
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women and Irish Whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
Lucas Duda
1. Fits ballplayer name theory
2. Can rake, or at least that's what I saw him do in Spring Training
3. Is my favorite Mets prospect outside of Fernando "Hitting Machine" Rodriguez.
steven pearce
Shouldn't steven pearce be mentioned at well? I know the Pirates are trying him in the outfield, but don't many consider a future first basemen?
Where would he rank on this list - i'm guessing in the lars anderson tier?
Chris Carter II
Apparently, he is now Vernon Carter.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
Comments
Hey!
They haven't given up on Weglarz playing a "real" defensive position yet. He is still in the outfield at least, even if it's just LF.
I've written these comments before, but they apply here, as well:
- I don't understand all the Votto hype. His stats will look OK in Cincy, but he doesn't seem at all special to me.
- What the heck am I missing in Lars Anderson? Is this just a "he's going to be playing in Lancaster" pick? I drafted Sean Rodriguez for that reason a couple years ago, figuring he'd post big numbers there and I could trade him. Lars had 11 HR last year.... as a 1b! And he only had XBH in about 10% of his AB's, a rate which is even more modest if you consider PA's, since he does walk.
- Chris Davis strikes out so much it's scary, but with that much power potential, I can see hoping he comes to terms with it better than Russell Branyan did.
- Logan Morrison - I remember reading a post on here months ago comparing him to Lars Anderson, and asking why Lars was so much more highly rated. Seems like a valid question to me. Of course, playing for Jupiter vs. Lancaster, he could out-hit Lars by about 30% (using any run value metric) this year and still have worse stats. He doesn't scream "superstar" to me, but certainly seems like he'll be a decent MLB 1b (which requires a very good bat, obviously) for a long time. Unless I was planning a 2nd trade, I wouldn't give him up for Joey Votto.
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