Jeremy Guthrie

by The Congo Hammer on Mar 28, 2008 10:52 AM EDT

So last year, Jeremy Guthrie got a lot of hype during his breakout season, along with the Carmona and Shields. Guthrie fell further off the map than either of the two of them as the season wore on, but still I'm surprised by his very pessimistic projections by ZIPS and RotoAuthority which indicate he'll be a below-average starter.

During his peak last season people were saying his fastball could hit 97 mph and had good offspeed stuff to complement it. His K/BB ratio seems to indicate he had decent control even if not dominant. So what happened? Did he lose his stuff, or are people looking to much into his age and the late-season tumble, which could have been due to fatigue? What do you see for him for 2008, and why?

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Fatigue

I really like JG. He tired at the end of last year, because of the unexpectedly heavy workload and had issues with his command. But when fresh, his stuff is sick and command excellent.

I suspect the projections are expecting him to fade again, but I would not be so sure. I do think he will have to adjust to being "the ace" in Baltimore now (unless Cabrera finally has his much anticipated breakout), which could be a challenge. However, JG seems to be a very mentally tough pitcher, so I do not think it will faze him too much.

A WAG for his line: 14-12, 200 IPs, 185 Ks, 3.57 ERA, 1.24 WHIP. In short, a fine follow-up season.

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Mar 28, 2008 12:55 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Fatigue

The post above pretty much sums it up. I don't get the pessimism either, when he was fresh his stuff was great and location/control was amazing. With the Orioles rebuilding it's hard to predict a really good season for him like the numbers above, but he is a solid pitcher at worst IMO.

Some of the projections I've seen are just baffling, his late season struggles were all about fatigue and the Orioles even shut him down because of it (he only pitched again later in the season because he pretty much begged to keep going while management thought he did enough for the season). Before August he had an ERA under 3, one horrible month made him look more average than he really was last year.

by cowboy4eva on Mar 28, 2008 2:01 PM EDT 0 recs

Rotoauthority

The lack of Rotoauthority love surprised me too. Guthrie was great last year, but his defense and run support will probably conspire to make this year not as big a breakout as maybe we'd hope for. Still solid, though.

by Pawtucket Pat on Mar 28, 2008 2:13 PM EDT 0 recs

Follow Up

One additional note on JG that could be driving the pessimistic views from the experts...for 2007 overall he had higher-than-average strand rates (75.1%) and a very low BABIP (.270), both of which could be expected to revert to the mean, affecting his numbers. (Although some of that regression may be softened by a rise in his IF/F%, which were substantially below average and should rise.)

I still think he will outperform the 2008 projections, but it's nice to think that at least there's some reason for them.

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Mar 28, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

guthrie

i really like guthrie,
watching him pitch last year you could see the potential to dominate, and why he did sometimes.

the movement on some of his pitches is ridiculous,
i remember him throwing a couple that almost looked like a frisbee the way it would rise and cut back.

and he was throwing them at least in the mid 90s.

i don't understand the projections either.
it has to be the fatigue and the end of the year when he hit the wall, people assuming he reverted back to the norm.

but to me he's just a late blooming prospect, probably because of the route he took in his baseball career.

i truly believe he will put up some very solid numbers this year.

by god allah star on Mar 28, 2008 6:10 PM EDT 0 recs