By definition, a prospect is a young player with a possibility of future success.

In this case, Bailey has a legitimate shot at being an ace one day in the Show mainly because of his nasty stuff. There aren't many players in the minor league system to have comparable assets. Hence, Bailey is one of baseball's top prospects.

Nevertheless, nothing is perfect in this world, so is his command. It might be a problem down the stretch.

Let's keep in mind that the kid is close to be ready to play in the majors at 21. He's still a ways off his prime years.

That's why I think most prospectors are right to have Bailey on their short list.

though I don't think any team would mind to have him. The debates of Bailey or Hughes now look silly.

If the statement was "prospect evaluators overrateD Homer Bailey" I'd give you a "true"

But I think Bailey's become so overrated that he's underrated - the backlash is too strong for his underlying ability and production

Why is Johnny Cueto rated significantly behind Bailey everywhere? If they were neck and neck and Bailey were ahead, that's one thing. The BA list with Bailey top 10 and Cueto mid 30s comes to mind as being particularly annoying to me. That said, I do agree with the poster above that some of the backlash against Bailey is excessive.

I never liked him as much as most, and I'm more confident about that now than I was a year ago

You want to about how silly the Bailey or Hughes debates look. Take into account Gallardo was considered lower tier. My money is on Gallardo outshining them both the next couple of years for sure. Bailey is a good prospect, but needs to show some poise and control in my opinion.

..I picked Bailey on John's 'most overrated pitching prospect' thread last year, so I incline towards true. As I said last year, though, only half of 'overrated' is potential; the other half is rating.

On ratings, BA has Bailey #9. Overall. BP has him #9 as well. Most lists have him top-10. See http://blog.baseballdigestdaily.com/_attachments/3602367/2007-2008%20Top%20Prospect%20Lists%20-%20March%2025,%202008.xls

Some backlash, that.

On performance, he is very good, very young. His stuff is quite nice, given age, but in a world with Clayton Kershaw making jaws drop, I don't see him as quite qualifying for 'nasty', not yet.

As for 'never showed control or command problems before last year,' that's flat-out wrong. He hasn't shown good control at any level. The best he's managed in pro ball -- ever -- was an 8% walk rate, in his stop in high A in 2006. He's been above 10% at every other level, including the same 14% rate in low A in 2005 he showed in the majors last year.

No matter the stuff, pitchers with walk rates over 10% are risky, and for every Randy Johnson that finally puts it together and reels off a string of Cy Youngs, there are two dozen Neighborgall-manques who'll probably never throw enough strikes to be really successful.

True, for the second year in a row.

I live near Chattanooga, Tennessee where Homer Bailey pitched last year for part of the summer. I drafted Homer 2 years ago in my fantasy keeper leagues minor league draft. I stored him in my minors and just tracked his progress, knowing on his way to the bigs he would make a stop in Chattanooga to pitch for the Lookouts. I was in Chattanooga last summer having drinks and listen to music in a downtown establishment after Lookouts game. I met my cousin at this water hole. I sat down and about 20 minutes in my cousin introduces me to someone I was sitting next to. He says, "This is Homer". At first, I didn't even pay it any mind. A couple of seconds later I realize I am sitting next to Homer Bailey, a lanky, tall kid. I introduced myself and we talked briefly. My cousin had met him before around Chattanooga. They are both outdoorsmen, hunting and fishing. Homer invited us to see a couple of his starts leaving tickets for us. The times I saw him pitch, I was impressed. He seemed very composed for a 20 year at the time. His fastball was consistantly in the mid-90. His fastball was fastest at the end of his outing, topping out at 96.

One game in particular stood out. The Lookouts were playing the West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx. It was the top of the second. Homer starts his wind up when the batter steps out on him. The next pitch was placed in the batters ear hole. The umpire proceeded to warn both benches. I would ask Bailey later if that was on purpose, he did not comment. After the warnings are issued, Homer goes on to retire the side. Bottom of the second, Bailey is due up second. He digs in and the first pitch is behind him. The ump ejects the pitcher and his manager. Homer strikes out. Homer Bailey went on to pitch 6 strong innings giving up 1 hit, 4 Ks, 3 BB and 1 HBP. The game was tied at 0 and he got a no decision for the game.

I say it is to be determined whether he is overrated or not. I think he still has some developing to do. So, the fact that he starts the season in the minors doesn't really effect his rating. Let's face it. When he does make it to the majors he will be pitching in a park that doesn't favor any kind of pitcher at all. Why not let him get some more experience in the minors before he gets thrown into a ball park that can destroy even the most seasoned veterans and a team that will struggle to be 500 this year. We will see if the hype for Johnny Cueto is still as it is now after he has a couple of Great American starts.