Garrit Cole vs. Tim Melville
by FishHead on Mar 27, 2008 6:13 PM EDT
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PrintIve been doing my yearly research on the 08 draft and since Ive been reading ive had the understanding that melville was the top hs pitching prospect. After reading some scouting reports and watching some footage cole appears to be hands down the top hs arm of the 08 draft. Cole is 6'3" with a fastball that sit 95-98, with a plus slider and changeup, and armed with above average control. Melville meanwhile sits 88-91 in his last start, topping out at 93. Hes 6'5" 200 so a little more projectable. Hes got an average knuckle curve and an average changeup. Hes got below average control.
In my oppinion its not even close. Cole is hands down a better highschool pitcher. I wouldnt touch melville in the top 10. All hes really got going for him is projectability. What are your oppinions? and is there anyone else who you think is better than cole or at least comparable to him?
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melville
melville has below average control? i think you need to find some different scouting reports. melville's biggest strengths are his smooth delivery and very good command.
cole does have better stuff, but his delivery is a mess.
control
he's had what 2 starts? the weather has been terrible here in st. louis, why don't you let him get some half way decent weather before you determine how good he is this year. i don't care though, hopefully some teams start thinking like the people on this board and we can get him down to the cardinals at 13.
by fewgoodcards on Mar 27, 2008 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions
hey, don't shoot the messenger. i'm just stating the facts, not passing judgment. too early to call anything for sure, but it's hard not to like the guy throwing 96 and dominating at a showcase event.
don't shoot the messenger
i didn't say i don't like cole. he obviously has great stuff, but i do think his mechanics suck. hey, i am kind of hoping melville does slip b/c i would love to see him in the cardinals system and the only way that is going to happen is if he struggles this year. i don't see anything wrong with a 6'5" pitcher that sits 92-93 with a projectable frame and clean mechanics.
by fewgoodcards on Mar 27, 2008 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions
RE:
I agree with fewgoodcards - Cole has more pure stuff (I read he may also have an above average Curve he is not yet using this year), but Melville is a safer bet. And Melville also does have plus command, despite a shaky first two starts.
Also, I'd put Alex Meyer up there with these two.
This same discussion was going on today on another board; I'll post what I mentioned regarding Cole:
have to agree that Cole is at the top talent-wise (and for me by a fairly decent margin). However, I believe that four factors will drop him hard, as in outside the top 20:
1. There are no less than 5 college arms that have similar grades (Crow, Matusz, Scheppers, Hunt, Friedrich), and most teams lean heavily toward taking the more polished college SP over a HS SP. Guys like Tyson Ross and Lance Lynn also could sneak in there.
2. Not only is Cole a HS pitcher, but he is a Boras advisee who will certainly demand a good chunk of change as *arguably* the top HS pitcher in the 2008 class (See Porcello, though Cole is nowhere near the prospect Porcello was coming out of HS). This suggests to me that if a team is willing to take a HS pitcher over the above-mentioned college arms, they are more likely to go with Melville or Meyer, who have upside similar to that of Cole's.
3. He has a funky delivery that could lead to some arm problems, as discussed in another thread today.
4. He really hasn't thrown that many innings (under 40 last year, I believe). While this may be a good thing to keep the mileage down on his arm, are teams really going to give Boras money to a pitcher who hasn't proven he can withstand the wear and tear of even 50 innings? I'm not sure.
This is my reasoning as to why I think he'll fall to teams like the Mets, Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox with deep pockets. As a Tigers fan, I love his potential, but I'm not sure I personally would be willing to dish out a load of cash on him (although I expect the Tigers will have no qualms about this).
question
what board are you talking about?
by fewgoodcards on Mar 27, 2008 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions
RE:
Project Prospect
The "Tim Meiville Scouting Report" thread.
flscout
I know flscout very well, he knows his stuff. He actually brings his own gun, talks to the scouts, and sends in reports by request to at least one major league club. He has a nice report on Crow on PP also.
Anyway, he talked to several of the scouts during Melville's last outing and most felt he's been overrated quite a bit. His command has been very spotty in his first two starts and his fastball is behind several of the other top HS pitchers both in terms of velocity and life. Cole is dominating against much stronger competition while Melville is struggling to put things together so far. I'd put Cole as the no. 1 HS arm on my board if the draft was today. That said, I think Tim is more about projection anyway. Melville has a good frame and should improve. All these guys are obviously far from finished products.
HS arms
I would also have Cole as my #1 arm this early, but I don't think he will be the first, or even second, HS pitcher chosen this year. I'm curious to hear your's and fewgoodcards' HS pitcher rankings, say top 10, with the cavaet that HS pitching is easily the toughest to project until right about draft day.
Mine:
1. Gerrit Cole
2. Tim Melville
3. Alex Meyer
4. Sonny Gray (Jarrod Parker syndrome - small but mid-90s FB and hammer CV)
5. Kyle Lobstein (really nice delivery leads to projectability)
6. Brett DeVall (I thought he throws harder than listed in his Milb report)
7. Daniel Webb (pretty huge already for a HS pitcher)
8. Michael Palazzone (like Cole, I don't like his delivery but his stuff is REALLY good already)
9. Scott Silverstein (reserving this spot, as he may shoot up if he is throwing mid-90s as stated, or drop down if his tendonitis issue this year keeps lingering).
10. Jarred Cosart (again, reserving this spot, as he may shoot up if he hits triple digits again this year like he did this past fall).
HS pitcher rankings
1. Tim Melville
2. Gerrit Cole
3. Alex Meyer
4. Sonny Gray
5. Brett DeVall
6. Kyle Lobstein
7. Daniel Webb
8. Ethan Martin
9. Jarret Martin
10. Michael Palazzone
by fewgoodcards on Mar 28, 2008 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Re:
Ethan Martin is a bit of an enigma thus far...I'm not sure whether to rank him as a pitcher or a third baseman. He certainly throws hard well into games, but he really has no history as being scouted as a pitcher to date.
Also, do you have any reports on how hard DeVall throws?
devall
i have heard reports all over the place. i have heard he throws up to 94 and has the best fastball among the high school lefties, but i have also heard he is an 88-89 guy and is a control specialist. i don't know which is closer to the truth, but i do know i saw him in the aflac game and liked his delivery and his curveball and his fastball was good enough but not electric.
by fewgoodcards on Mar 28, 2008 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Vandy
Would love to see Sonny Gray fulfill his Vanderbilt commitment. I guess it all depends where/when he is drafted and how much $$$ is thrown at him.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
RE
I have not seen either pitch BUT
Cole does not "sit" 95-98. I have seen plenty of video of him 92 and 93. And he does not have a plus slider AND change.
With that said, depending on the money difference between the two, I like Cole a little more.
Melville is mostly projection, I would agree with that..
But, Cole is not Rick Porcello lets not get confused.
MiLB Report says he sits 95-98 early in games
Im new to MiLB, so im asking are they legitimate? They said late in games hes 92-94 i believe. The 95-98 just stood out to me. Is MiLB legitimate?
RE
Their "scouting report" is only based on the 1 game they see. And I have seen some major disparities in what they say about a player than what some of the other sources do. I mostly go there for the video on the players.
Kyle Long
This kid doesnt get much love but Ive heard he is 6'8" lefty who throws mid 90's and a hell of a hitter too. How come he doesnt get talked about much?
Great Athlete too
Was an elite offensive line prospect, but he's not going to play football cause he doesn't want too. Don't know much about his secondary stuff, but it's probably raw. He's also got great power at 1B.
From what I've heard though, his parents want him to go to college. Money's not an issue, so why not take it easy and got to college. Enjoy life for 3/4 years, then go pro.
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