James Shields - your take

by PujolsJunkie on Mar 26, 2008 10:02 AM EDT

12-8, 3.85 ERA, phenomenal 184:36 K:BB ratio a year ago. I consider him the AL's answer to John Maine. I happen to like both guys an awful lot. My question is, what do you see Shields becoming long-term? At 26, do you think this was only the beginning of a breakout, or did we already witness it? Ceiling of a pretty good #2 is what I'd say. With the control he's displayed, can he be an Aaron Harang (very good strikeout pitcher with strong control) type or do you see him going the way of a Dave Bush (also excellent control, but entirely too hittable)? The Rays do have a slew of arms on the way, but I see Shields as a mainstay in this rotation for a long time.

Any insight would be appreciated guys.

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I like him...

He is actually very underrated. Statiscally though, I don't think he can do much better than last season ('07). I dont mind the HRs allowed because he does a great job of limiting baserunners with such few walks. My concern is that he is very hittable and does not have great stuff. What he does have going for him is his smarts and a good changeup. He does a good job of mixing his pitches. In the end, I see him being closer to the Harang type than Bush. However, pitching in the AL East is scary and I beleive Shields will be taking some lumps down the road. I have also read some negative comments about his mechanics, however, I have yet to hear of any elbow/shoulder issues with Shields.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Mar 26, 2008 10:33 AM EDT reply actions

breakout already happened

I think last year was his breakout and I dont see his stats getting that much better, but I can see him mixing in a couple of 3.20 ERA seasons. Overall I think 180ks will be a peak for him and he'll be in the 3.5-3.75 era.

Whats going to make him so effective is his control and his groundball tendencies. Even if he suffers from a decline in k/9 he will still remain effective. Even if it fell to league average he'll still have elite k/bb ratios unless his control erodes.

I don't see him being moved out of their rotation longterm. In fact didn't he just sign a 4-year deal? I dont think they did that to push him out of the way for unproven arms and stick him in the pen.

Jack Cust is this year's Marcus Thames

by Team Moneyball on Mar 26, 2008 10:48 AM EDT reply actions

Jamie

I think if Shields refines his secondary pitches, he has a chance to be like Danny Haren. Too bad he pitches in a tough division.

by yoda1 on Mar 26, 2008 10:55 AM EDT reply actions

really?

His changeup is his best pitch and his curve is solid. I really doubt his curve getting much better, maybe a little more consistent.

He thrives off his control and keeping hitters off balance. A very solid #2 pitcher IMO. But I doubt we see much better than last year.

ps: Danny Haren was playing way over his head in the first half. Being in Arizona will be a wakeup call IMO.

by pedrophile on Mar 27, 2008 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Haren

100% agreed. I fully expect Haren's ERA to be between 3.75-4.00. He is a fine pitcher, but not the man you saw in the 1st half of 2007. Moving from an extreme pitchers park to a hitter friendly park will be painful for Haren. I've read too often that Haren has been referred to as an 'Ace', he is not.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Mar 27, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Statistical comp...

Javier Vazquez

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Mar 26, 2008 11:12 AM EDT reply actions

Sorry for the typo

He walked 36, not 26.

"The Blue Jays won't win another playoff game until the Yankees and Red Sox are contracted." - Tom Berenger

by PujolsJunkie on Mar 26, 2008 11:36 AM EDT reply actions

That's it...

Off with your head!

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Mar 26, 2008 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions

first

i'll start with a classless 'booyah!" to all those with whom I argued last year about whether or not Shields was any good.

he is real good.

as for future stats, i'm with the consensus he'll be more or less as is. the one variable in his favor is that the Rays had the league's worst defense last year and with improvements there more ground balls will be fielded, for sure. that could help some.

by scooter on Mar 26, 2008 2:24 PM EDT reply actions

Damn good pitcher

But I think last year was his "coming out party". I don't expect big jumps or drops in his numbers going forward, unless he somehow "loses" his changeup or gets injured. He's got the pitches, sinking motion, and velocity to keep hitters generally ineffective, as long as the IF D is not horrible. If a team could line up 4-5 Shields' as a starting staff, I'd buy odds on them to make the playoffs...

by jjf3 on Mar 26, 2008 9:11 PM EDT reply actions

Curve

His curve is improved. It's a consistently usable pitch. Certainly not a plus pitch, but he can use it, which is an improvement from early last season. His change is absolutely dirty. I agree with the sentement here, he is what his is. And what his is, is a very good pitcher, but he's not likely to get significantly better. A 3.50 ERA is probably a good bet considering the defense improvement the Rays will have up the middle with Bartlett and Iwamura up the middle instead of Harris and whomever was playing 2nd last season.