Which group of young pitchers would you take - Tigers or Royals?
by grandslam84 on Mar 25, 2008 3:22 PM EDT
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PrintI was having a discussion with a Royals fan who insisted:
Greinke > Verlander
Bannister > Bonderman
Hochevar > Willis
Soria > Zumaya
Cortes > Porcello
As a Tigers fan, I can't be objective about this, but it seems to me the Tigers group has more MLB production and more potential. But as I said, maybe I'm just a homer.
What do fans of other teams think? Which group of 5 young arms would you rather have over the next few seasons? Maybe you can help settle this argument by offering an objective viewpoint.
Thanks.
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uh
I assume you're talking about the discussion on scout.com, and I can assure you that those comparisons never took place.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
I was wrong.
Seriously, if you're taking rock8888 as you're source, then I don't know what to say. He was trying to stir up more trouble.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
Yes
I am talking about the discussion on scout.com
I am not on the Royals board very often, so I don't know if particular posters are trying to stir up trouble, but I did see similar thoughts posted by more than one poster, and I just wanted to get an objective viewpoint from people who are not invested in either team.
Curtis Granderson and Miguel Cabrera vs. Alex Gordon and Billy Butler was also discussed. Maybe posters can also offer their viewpoint of which young duo they would rather see anchoring their lineup for years to come.
i like greinke more than anyone else
...though Verlander is a stud, and Bonderman a horse... and Porcello makes me drool
My 2 cents
Greinke < Verlander
Bannister < Bonderman
Hochevar < Willis
Soria > Zumaya
Cortes < Porcello
and fwiw, Curtis Granderson and Miguel Cabrera > Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. I'll go with experience, though my first instinct was to say otherwise.
Seriously
This is absurd. Soria is the only guy I'd take from the Royals' side, and that's only because Zumaya can't stay healthy. This is just pointless.
"The Blue Jays won't win another playoff game until the Yankees and Red Sox are contracted." - Tom Berenger
by PujolsJunkie on Mar 25, 2008 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Bannister > Bondo?
Why is everyone so quick to give so much credit to the guy who had a .264 BABIP last year? Bonderman always has high BABIP's (luck) and had a blistering start last year. He only ended with a 5 ERA because of a few bad starts down the stretch.
And how can we even rule on Cortes vs. Porcello when Rick hasn't pitched a professional inning?
Bonderman
Everyone is down on Bonderman because they see he ended the year with a 5 ERA (although I wonder if the same people were saying Beckett sucked because he had a 5 ERA in his first year with Boston.)
But what a lot of people miss is that he was pitching injured in the second half (before he was shut down with elbow problems). His stats over the first half of the season are more indicative of the kind of pitcher he is when he is healthy. I would guess that his ERA will be around 4 if he is healthy this year (which he appears to be). Anybody who saw Bonderman pitch during the second half of last season could tell he wasn't right (lots of Tigers fans speculated he was injured long before it was revealed) because his control deteriorated and his slider didn't nearly have the same bite.
About Bannister, I don't think he will be able to duplicate last year's stats. His K/9 last year was 4.2. And he doesn't appear to be a ground ball pitcher (a la Wang, Carmona, etc) where he can get away with that.
But Bannister knows sabemetrics
so clearly he can get away with a low strikeout rate.
http://mvn.com/milb-yankees/
I'm assuming sarcasm
If not, I may blow a gasket...
by David Tokarz on Mar 25, 2008 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I am unbiased since I follow the Indians
but I can tell you Verlander looks far superior to Greinke. There always seems to be some excuse for Bonderman who has never really delivered on his promise so I go with Bannister who has less talent. I would put Hochevar, as inexperienced as he is, ahead of Willis but I am not sure I would put him ahead of Robertson. Soria has to be considered ahead of Zumaya since Zumaya is never healthy. Porcello has never thrown a professional pitch but I think his upside is far greater than Cortes but who knows at that age.
Bannister v Bonderman
OK, I promised myself I wouldn't get pulled into yet another thread sticking up for Bondo, but I can't help myself...
You say: "There always seems to be some excuse for Bonderman who has never really delivered on his promise so I go with Bannister who has less talent."
Really? You'd take the guy who is 18 months older, has far worse K/9 and K/BB ratios, a poorer FIP and significantly poorer xFIP, and much worse stuff? Even if you believe Bonderman has not lived up to his potential (not really true), what possible advantage does Brian hold over him?
Even in 2007, Bonderman's "worst" year, he out-pitched Brian Bannister.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
umm....
Not by ERA. And I realize there's that whole "predictive value" thing, but it is absolutely farcical to say that Brian Bannister was inferior to Bonderman last season just because Bannister is a contact pitcher. And this is coming from someone who would rather have Bonderman long term.
I do think it would serve you well to look up Brian Bannister's conversation with MLBTR or Yahoo over the winter.
Bannister
Yes, I've read the interview, and I've also seen Bannister pitch live a number of times, including a recent spring training start. I'm quite familiar with him.
Leaving aside predictive value, ERA IMO does not correctly capture who pitched better. While it may be accurate to say Bannister's team's results were better when he pitched, it would be highly inaccurate IMO to say he out-pitched Bonderman, whose performance stats were far superior in 2007. Bannister's 2007 ERA was due in large part to a ridiculously high DER of .739, which was the *highest DER any AL pitcher has posted in the last two years*. That's luck, not superior pitching.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
explain please what DER is
Can you explain? Please, no links as I can find that myself.
appreciated.
DER
Defensive Efficiency Rate, the rate at which fielders turn a pitcher's batted balls (ex HRs) into outs. Essentially (and mathematically) the inverse of BABIP.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
question for you
If a team/pitcher gives up a disproportionate number of hard hit balls then the DER would be higher than expected, correct? If this is the case then the pitcher would be considered unlucky when in fact this wasn't the case.
Further, when a pitcher clumps hits they will give up a disproportionate number of runs versus a pitcher that gives up hits at a steady rate.
Bonderman as we know has a serious problem with this, most notably the 1st inning.
Thus it seems a normal expectation his ERA will be higher than any "expected" ERA.
Further, was Bonderman only unlucky in the second half and had normal luck in the first half where his numbers were good?
If so you are implying he was only unlucky when he was hurt. I would think it was more a matter of him being hurt and pitching like crap than he was "unlucky".
To believe Bonderman was unlucky is to rely on a stat and then believe in it against both the evidence on paper and even more important watching the games.
I strongly believe if healthy he can have some excellent years. And if he truly is more comfortable with his changeup that will help. I do doubt his ability to stay healthy however.
Well
I was talking above about Bannister's higher-than-average DER, not Bonderman's numbers at all. And Bannister's fairly average LD% numbers (19.2% in 2007) do not suggest to me that he was giving up disproportionately fewer hard hit balls. In addition, Bannister's GB% rates are average at best, and his IF/F% numbers, while better than average, are not good enough to account for his very positive DER. In short, there's nothing that I can see in the 2007 data to suggest that Bannister was able to induce weakly-hit balls at a significantly above-average clip.
As for Bonderman, I do think his superficially terrible numbers in the second half of 2007 were due to injury. However, the fact is that he's also been a guy who's consistently under-performed his fielding-independent numbers throughout his career, and I do not claim to ignore that. He's also had slightly but consistently below-average LOB% numbers.
I think there are reasons for all of this, but I'm really just guessing. I think part of it is bad luck, part may be the lack of an effective off-speed pitch, and part may be that he still has some growing to do on the mound. But, after all, he's only 25 (?), right? I don't expect him to yet be a finished product and using his age 21-24 seasons to establish his career baseline and arc may be unfair. Look, I believe in Bondo's stuff, but he clearly has not yet lived up to his full potential, and he may never. I just don't think he's even in the same conversation with Brian Bannister.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
Like pedrophile I had not heard the acronym DER
before. Pretty cool way of saying Detroit's defense is bad so you might have a point. But if it was bad last year(and it was), imagine how bad it will be with the range challenged infield and no real OF defense until Granderson returns. That's an arguement I can appreciate. I will have to consider the fact that KCs defense might be that much better. Pedrophile does make his points but you have given me pause for thought.
DER
Sorry to confuse people...it's really just the opposite of BABIP, just from the defensive team's perspective (DER=1-BABIP). I could just use BABIP like everybody else, but I'm kind of a stickler for technicalities, and I think of BABIP as a hitter stat (which can be a repeatable skill) and DER as a pitcher/fielding stat. :-)
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
I didn't mean to upset you
but Bonderman seems to have a world of talent. However, he has a losing record and an unimpressive ERA for his career. He had what I consider a minor breakout given his overall record but hasn't really followed that up. If you beieve that his overall record is reflective of living up to his potential, then I would have to conclude that his potential is not high. Personally, I think he could reach #3 status which I really would not give him now. He has a lot of history for a guy who is supposed to be a #2. I cannot believe you consider last year to be his worst. I actually thought it was one of his better years.
Bondo
Sure, I agree with some of your feelings about Bonderman. What drew my reaction (not upset, more like surprised/mystified) was your logic that, since Bondo hadn't "put it together" (although note that he's much younger than Bannister and still learning how to pitch), you'd take Bannister over him.
It's like saying, well, I expected that Porsche to go from 0-60 in 5.5 seconds, but it took 6, so I'll go with the Toyota instead (though the Toyota takes 6.5 seconds for the same acceleration).
It's all about expectations. I think we agree that Bonderman has loads more potential than Bannister. I think we both also agree that we would have expected more from Bonderman by now. Yet, where I think we disagree is whether those expectations should be held against him.
To me, *right now*, leaving aside growth/potential, etc., Bonderman's a better pitcher than Brian Bannister, hands down. Maybe you agree with that (because of K/9, K/BB, DER, xFIP, etc.), or maybe not. So, if you'd said I take Bannister because I think he's a better pitcher, fine. We'll agree to disagree. But I didn't gather that was your argument.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
You make great points and I am
not really disagreeing with any of them except I am not as ready as you to throw Bannister under the train. I really like his consistency which I think you have to admit Bonderman lacks. If I were looking at these two as prospects, then your arguement is very persuasive. But these guys are playing with the big boys so all the ratios and radar guns make little difference. If you get the other side out and keep your team in the game, you have done your job especially as a #3. Maybe Bonderman is overmatched since he is being asked to be a #2. Bonderman might have the grace of an eagle but he is nesting with the woodpeckers after five years.
Sure
It's possible that Bonderman is being asked to do too much, although IMO his stuff is #2 starter quality. I think an effective change-up (and health) could really transform him this year, but we'll just have to wait and see.
I don't dislike Bannister as a pitcher, actually. I think he's very interesting, and I actually really enjoy watching him pitch. However, there's a lot in his profile that bespeaks caution to me. As above, his LD/GB/FB numbers do not support the ERA he posted last year, nor do his very low strikeout rates (4.4 K/9 last year, which is just appallingly low) and his low K/BB rates. Finally, it matters to me that Bannister has really only had one year "playing with the big boys," as you say. I discount his track record during that year, because, while good, it may have been a fluke. Perhaps this year if he puts up another stat-defying line I'd be more inclined to think he could keep it up, but I have a feeling Bannister will regress substantially. I see a 4.50+ ERA in his future.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
I think I agree with just about everything
you say. Maybe Bonderman is going put his problems behind him. He has always had the potential. Bannister just reminds me of Westbrook when I watch him pitch and his profile, like Westbrook, seems to exceed the profile consistently. If I were drafting an expansion player, I would probably pick Bonderman with his upside but, until seeing differently, I would rather rely on Bannister throwing every fifth day.
OK, fair
I hear where you're coming from. Frankly, I'd take Bonderman over Westbrook too, but we'll have to save that discussion for another day, since this diary is close to getting bumped off the main page! :-)
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
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