Rob Neyer's Top 50 Young Players For The Next 5 Years

by grandslam84 on Mar 25, 2008 3:15 PM EDT

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview08/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=3310373

Do you agree with his list?

I think he is overvaluing defense (and mediocre players who play harder defensive positions), and there are too few pitchers on the list, IMO. I know pitchers are harder to predict than hitters, because of injuries, but only having 7 pitchers on the list seems too low.

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Melky Cabrera

at 46? And Prince Fielder is only No. 40? AYFKM?

by Flynn Blake on Mar 25, 2008 3:28 PM EDT 0 recs

Price could eat himself to the Glue Factory.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Mar 25, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

really

before he turns 28? I think it was a pretty good sign when he just switched his entire diet because he's aware of his problem. I dont think his fatness catches up with him before he's 30.

Jack Cust is this year's Marcus Thames

by Team Moneyball on Mar 25, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

I can't see the future

And I don't plan to pretend to. But at his size the chances are against him that he will all of a sudden drop his weight. If I'm starting a team of these guys I doubt I'd take him for that reason. To me, he is a guy I'd have no problem going year by year with, but to give him 5 I'm not comfortable doing that,

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Mar 25, 2008 7:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

+1

I'd go even further
If we're only talking about the next five years, I'd have Prince in the top 10. Easy.
His dad was at least as big and absolutely did no take care of his body and he hit 95 HR's with 265 RBI's when he was 27 & 28.

by my dixie wrecked on Mar 26, 2008 12:09 AM EDT up 0 recs

Like the idea

the list not so much.

Just looking at the prospect side. Would you really take Kelly Johnson over Upton or Bruce and Rasmus (who didn;t even make the list)? ESPN should have gotten somebody that actually knows about young players to write this.

by nyy601 on Mar 25, 2008 3:44 PM EDT 0 recs

List

This list is pretty clearly biased towards experience, and Neyer is explicit about this. He wants people who are already productive and are good bets to remain so. Yes, he's willing to bet on Longoria, Jones, etc., but that's because of how very close they are (I would argue that Bruce is just as close as Longoria).

I think it's also worth noting that defensive prowess really doesn't seem to matter as much on this list as it would seem prima facie. It's more about positional scarcity (which would explain how Hanley and Miggy placed so high despite lackluster glovework.)

It's an interesting list, and if there's any sort of bias, it would be towards VORP. I don't agree with this list entirely, but then I'm more not going to complain about any list that has David Wright as the most valuable property in baseball over the next 5 years. :)

by GuyinNY on Mar 25, 2008 3:51 PM EDT 0 recs

yes but...

what about Fielder, then? he's done it, and he's done with VORP a plenty!

ridiculously low rating.

by scooter on Mar 25, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

Old player skills

He walks a lot, has a lot of power and isn't fast. I disagree... I think he's got the skills to last a while, but I'm in the minority.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Mar 25, 2008 5:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

i understand the old player skills argument

but most people seem to think he's going to roll over and die before he turns 27. The dude is 23, its not like he got a late start like Travis Hafner or Ryan Howard and he's better than both of them.

Jack Cust is this year's Marcus Thames

by Team Moneyball on Mar 25, 2008 5:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

Old player skills

But Prince isn't your typical player with "old player skills." He's an amazing athlete. He's my age, I'm 6' 160lbs, work-out regularly and am a fair decent athlete. At 250+ he's faster than me, a significantly better athlete too. I've seen the dude do a full split. That's amazing flexibility for a guy his size. He's just a freak. If he keeps himself in shape, he should easily be a super-star into his early 30's. His weight will catch up to him and his knees and other body parts will start to break down. But he's not your typical "Old player skills" guy. Ryan Howard he is not.

by Tyler on Mar 25, 2008 6:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

I agree...

I think everyone underrates him... BP mentions old player skills in his comment, then mentions that he's fast and pretty athletic. The two don't make sense. He's got staying power, probably more than his dad. It's cool by me- I loved Cecil and I love Prince.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Mar 25, 2008 8:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

Positional Scarcity

I agree that on this list Fielder is underrated pretty severely, but I'm disinclined to say he's really fit to replace anybody in the top 10 or so. Fielder's a 1b, and while he has tremendous power, he is not that rare compared to the rest of his position. Neyer also hints the he is disinclined to strongly believe that Fielder will remain healthy for the entirety of that time due to his size (a point I disagree with). Combine this with his poor defense and it's pretty easy to see that Fielder's value this past season is more volatile than many of those above him. In sum, that means a very potent bat, but not a superstar one. Combine this with the position Fielder plays (poorly), and you can see how he is a less exceptional player than you might initially believe.

Also, regarding the old player skills argument, I side pretty strongly with the idea that Fielder is 1) not exactly likely to break down over the next 5 years (despite having old player skills), and 2) he is very well aware that he has a bad body type and is taking steps to ameliorate that condition. It is also worth noting that Fielder isn't necessarily "fat", as he's often been described as carrying far more muscle than it would appear at first glance. Furthermore, he is widely regarded as a terrific athlete for someone his size.

by GuyinNY on Mar 25, 2008 6:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

Lists such as these

Lists such as these are very hard to put together and will almost always generate a lot of agreements and disagreements.

I feel Neyer might be guilty of looking in the rear view mirror with some players such as Johan Santana, although at least he's going with a proven guy who to me HAS been the best pitcher over the past five years. That he will do so the next five I am not as confident of.

That said, while I didn't like the signings of Pedro Martinez (whom I love but viewed as too big an injury risk for the contract he signed) or particularly Barry Zito (who was definitely paid looking through the rear view mirror, and not looking very analytically at that), I thought the signing of Johan was a good one.

One thing that is extremely exciting about today's game is that there a MANY great prospects, both with the bat and with their arms. Some will level off, others will likely flame out. But it appears to me that there are enough very fine young prospects to keep baseball in somewhat of a Golden Age, just as many of its top stars are leaving the game or nearing the end of marvelous careers.

by sharksrog on Mar 25, 2008 3:52 PM EDT 0 recs

No Angels on the List

NEYER retains the same biases. Kotchman, Kendrick... Bueller? Bueller?

by Rev Halofan on Mar 25, 2008 4:47 PM EDT 0 recs

I'm so sick of "analyst X is biased" comments

They're completely idiotic. What benefit is accrued from an analyst being biased? Yeah, and a guy named Halofan is going to be impartial.

by Flynn Blake on Mar 25, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

kotch and howie

kotch needs to show he can play a full season to rank up with the big boys. . .i'd take howie over a few of the other 2b's listed though

most of the main Angels are older though, and in five years may not be impact guys. . .

by SoCalSoxFan on Mar 26, 2008 12:54 AM EDT up 0 recs

i don't understand

why a list that keeps bruce and rasmus off it allows for longoria.

and i really do wonder how uggla makes that list. he's got pop and that's it.

http://www.simdynasty.com/index.jsp?refer=mychiefs58

by huckleberry on Mar 25, 2008 5:09 PM EDT 0 recs

Liked the list...

although I do agree with grandslam84 that it could use a few more pitchers. I would have liked to have seen Felix Hernandez on there. For the most part I liked the top 45 or so, and saying that any of them should be removed is just a judgment or preference call (except Kelly Johnson, who I don't think belongs up there). I wasn't as thrilled with Kemp, Melky & Ass-dribble Cabrera. I could even see leaving Morneau out of the top 50. Uggla is a little questionable as well.

If you are going to say what players should be included, then you have to say which ones to exclude. I don't think Kotchman should be on a Top 50 list, but I could see a case made for Kendrick.

I agree that the inclusion of Longoria while excluding Bruce, Rasmus, Joba, Buccholz, etc is hypocritical though.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Mar 25, 2008 5:18 PM EDT 0 recs

Issues

How are Carlos Beltran and Melky there, but Bruce and Rasmus (and Joba!!!) not?

--http://yankeesfuture.wordpress.com Bobby Mcnally (alias) "Whatever the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve."--Napoleon Hall

by bobbymcnally on Mar 25, 2008 6:12 PM EDT 0 recs

Que?

How are King Felix, Matt Cain, and the All Mighty Linecum not included on this list and yet Melky Cabrera, Kelly Johnson, and Asdrubal Cabrera are?!?

Seriously?!?

by Ur on Mar 25, 2008 7:18 PM EDT 0 recs

Injury Risk

Pitchers are far more volatile commodity due to their much higher injury risk.

P.S. I agree that it's inconceivable those 3 young arms aren't on the list.

by GuyinNY on Mar 25, 2008 7:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

don't you have to assume health is a constant though?

unless a guy has a history of injuries, you can't leave off pitchers in general b/c they MIGHT get hurt, or have a higher probability of getting hurt.

by SoCalSoxFan on Mar 26, 2008 12:56 AM EDT up 0 recs

Asdrubal Cabrera and not Brandon Phillips?

I don't really get that at all. Same position, Phillips is probably an even better defender than Cabrera, and is most likely the superior hitter as well. And while Phillips has a pretty short track record of success, it's not like Cabrera is any better in that regard.

But on a broader basis, I simply don't agree with the overall list. It's a list of the top 50 players in the next 5 years, and there are a lot of current superstars in their late 20s or early 30s I would bet are likely to very easily be among the top 50 players of the next 5 years. Average players decline early, most superstars do not.

by Geki on Mar 25, 2008 7:38 PM EDT 0 recs

Is Brandon Phillips even that much better than Jeff Keppinger?

Career OPS+ for their careers:
Age Phillips Keppinger
2000 80 COLLEGE
2001 98 COLLEGE
2002 44 65
2003 86 78
2004 88 89
2005 64 101
2006 88 85
2007 105 117
(Compiled by Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory)

by jonk1982 on Mar 28, 2008 1:17 AM EDT up 0 recs

Re: "I simply don't agree with the overall list"

Also, note that the list is Top 50 Young Players for the Next 5 Years. While I agree that many superstars currently in their late 20s and early 30s are better bets than some on the list, they are not "young."

by jonk1982 on Mar 28, 2008 1:21 AM EDT up 0 recs

my bad

because I read "From Wright to Cabrera: The top 50 for five years". For some reason, sarcasm intended, I didn't see the word young. Actually, I did see the caveat that young prospects would be excluded (a few exceptions) because they take a while to produce.

by pedrophile on Mar 28, 2008 2:02 AM EDT up 0 recs

this guy

is dumb
the reasons for ranking some of the players is just retarted

Happiness is only real when shared

by manny59 on Mar 25, 2008 9:25 PM EDT 0 recs

LOL

Do you really think he is 'retarted'?

by King Billy Royal on Mar 25, 2008 11:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

LOL

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Mar 26, 2008 12:43 AM EDT up 0 recs

i like

how he says prospects like jay bruce and cameron maybin don't qualify because prospects take a while to develop and then he puts longoria at what... 22? nicely done, sir

by ajake57 on Mar 25, 2008 10:44 PM EDT 0 recs

I think what he meant

was that Longoria is very polished and ready to hit in the big leagues now. He thinks it will take Bruce and Maybin 2-3 years before they're very good MLers and maybe longer until they're stars. That wouldn't make them one of the 50 most valuable players in the next 5 years because they won't be really good but for 2 of those years.

Is he right in that respect? I don't know. Probably is on Maybin. Bruce could be great quickly, although he could struggle to adjust because of his his high strike-out rate too. We'll see. But I think that's what he meant.

by Tyler on Mar 25, 2008 11:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

that's entirely possible

but shouldn't he have made a note of that? but, also, wouldn't he have to anticipate longoria being a major contributor right away to put him that high? maybe it's just me, but i tend to not expect too much from rookies their first season in the bigs. it seems like he's going to expect him to put up ryan braun numbers right away... which is, in my opinion, an unfair expectation

that's not to say that longoria doesn't deserve to be on the list... i just think that given his criteria he's rated too highly

by ajake57 on Mar 26, 2008 11:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think someone should remind him that Prince hit 50 HR in 07

Kelly Johnson is #28, [that's 12 spots ahead of Prince Fielder].... I know its confusing how they both play in the national league and on the right side of the infield.... and Felix Hernandez isnt even ranked... thanks for wasting my time Neyer

by daveh33 on Mar 26, 2008 12:03 AM EDT 0 recs

Prince...

http://i.a.cnn.net/si/2006/players/08/01/first.person0807/t1_prince.jpg

He's a big guy, but he ain't fat.

He'll be a top 1B for a long time.

by SenorGato88 on Mar 26, 2008 12:57 AM EDT 0 recs

crap

by pedrophile on Mar 26, 2008 1:14 AM EDT 0 recs

Really like the idea

Really don't like the list

I'll credit Melky's inclusion to ESPN's fondess for the NY media market / population / exposure and not much else.

by Illadelph on Mar 26, 2008 11:31 AM EDT 0 recs

Two guys

I'm not a huge Francoeur fan, but I did think he should be on this list over a few

how about Jeremy Hermida? Dude had a .870OPS last year

it's like he fell off the radar for most people

FutureFish.org

by Ramp on Mar 26, 2008 1:08 PM EDT 0 recs

In defense of Kelly Johnson

Okay, 28 may have been high. I'd certainly trade him straight up for Prince Fielder (I think they've got the same service time), and I think everyone else would, too.

But KJ ain't chopped liver. Last year, his first full year in the majors, his first year in the IF EVER as a pro, he hit like Chase Utley light. Moreover, he clearly tired as the season wore down, most likely due to working the whole winter to learn 2B. The biggest knock at this point is how streaky he is. He'll have months where he's just obscene, hitting like Utley, and then he'll turn around and hit .250/.340/.400. If he can gain some consistency in his game (and an adjustment for a 2nd year player isn't like, out of the question), he could be a legit star. A 2B who walks 100 times a year and hits around .290 with 20 HR pop is something special, and that's what looks like may be on the horizon for Johnson.

Now, to make that projection, I definitely had to put on my rose-colored glasses, but it's not out of the question. If Neyer is expecting an adjustment like that, a top 30 ranking really isn't that crazy.

by mraver on Mar 26, 2008 9:38 PM EDT 0 recs

KJ

I like KJ too, but unless he's become much better defensively at 2B, he's not one of the Top 50 young players IMO.

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Mar 27, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

who's the expert?

+1 to most of the above comments -

Fielder should be MUCH higher
Why Longoria, but no Bruce or Maybin?
KJohnson and ACabrera over Phillips??
No Felix? No Tim? No Joba?
Yeah, he's retarded - or is that Poptarted?

I'd venture to say that half of the people who regularly contribute to this blog could provide a much better list than Neyer did.

by journeymen on Mar 26, 2008 11:41 PM EDT 0 recs