True or False: Torii Hunter Edition

by John Sickels on Mar 24, 2008 9:00 AM EDT Comment 32 comments

True or False: Torii Hunter will have a disappointing offensive season for the Angels, hitting something like .256/.325/.475.

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True

He's turning 33 and coming off of a contract year. With the ridiculous money the Angels paid him, the only way he's not a disappointment is if he duplicates last year's productivity. Such a season is unlikely.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia: The Man, the Myth; The Alphabet.

by BudLight on Mar 24, 2008 9:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

False

I may be in the minority here, but I think Torii will have better bats behind him in LAA than he did in MIN. I think their will be better opportunities to produce and the .256/.325/.475 line seems very low to me and easily beatable.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Mar 24, 2008 10:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

True

This year's GMJ.

A working class hero is something to be.

by t ball on Mar 24, 2008 11:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

False

I don't think he's going to live up to his huge contract, but I don't think he's going to be as bad as .256/.325/.475

by sabernar on Mar 24, 2008 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

false

I say he maintains the level he has been at for the past 3-4 years along the lines of .275/.335/.500 with 25-30 homers. I also see his steals increase with the Angel's aggresive style in the range of 20-25.

He is NOT Gary Mathews Jr.

by ScottAZ on Mar 24, 2008 11:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

True

He's been injury prone the last few years, and I can see him getting nicked up this year, spending a couple weeks on the DL and/or having the minor injuries hurting his overall stats.

He is not GMJ, but he's also not the big bat that the Angels are hoping he will be.

by guru4u on Mar 24, 2008 12:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

True

maybe a little better... but not by much.

Troy I.

by tdi1985 on Mar 24, 2008 12:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

True

He'll probably press during April and into early May, trying to justify his contract, hitting like .202 with 3 homers. Then he'll "get back to basics" and end up performing closer to his career marks, but the bad start will bring his final line down to .256/.325/.475.

Tim Lincecum is Baseball's Chuck Norris

by Azantor on Mar 24, 2008 12:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

True

If I owned a lightsaber, the blade color would be black light, so that I could use it to fight evil and to liven-up parties.

by rooster on Mar 24, 2008 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes. Just... yes.

by NinetyNineTails on Mar 24, 2008 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

False

Hunter has too much talent to be that bad. I don't think he'll have a superstar season by any stretch, but he is surrounded by a better lineup with the Angels and will get a lot better pitches. The only way I see him getting close to a .256/.325/.475. line is if he is bothered by injuries and tries to play through them. Otherwise I think he will be closer to .280/.350/.520.... add in 20-25 HR's and 100 RBI

J-Mac

by jdmcrae on Mar 24, 2008 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Disappointing?

That line isn't far off from his career numbers. Maybe his average will be a few points higher, but I don't see how anybody can expect any better.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Mar 24, 2008 1:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

by rwperu34 on Mar 24, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I said false above

but I agree with what most are saying in that he won't be much better than that. I don't think he'll have a career year or anything, just think he'll be be better by about .20 across the line on ave/ob/slug than what John has.

You have to figure thats all the Angels need anyways. They need his glove, leadership, and his solid (but unspectacular) bat. He does what he has done for 4 years and it could be enough to get the Angels back into the WS as long as people like Vlad hold up

by ScottAZ on Mar 24, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

False

I think he'll be more on the order of .275/.330/.490, so about 20 points of OPS higher.

by Diggity Dino on Mar 24, 2008 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Depends

Disappointing to whom? I'm sure the Angels would like better than that, but I wouldn't call them terribly disappointing. I don't think he'll hit .250ish, but the rate stats are basically in line with his career numbers. I can see him beating those rate stats but he'll miss 125-175 AB's with some sort of injury. How about a line like this:
.285/.335/.500
500 AB, 22HR, 88 RBI, 80 R
Note: no math involved, just a quick shot off the top.

by sdangler on Mar 24, 2008 3:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's basically what I was trying to say

I don't think people should expect a lot better than the line John posted, especially in the OBP/SLG range. If somebody is expecting .300 and 35 HR or something, well, it's not Hunter's fault when he doesn't put up those numbers.

I do find it interesting that a lot of people here think he's going to spend a significant amount of time unhealthy. If this is true, it makes that deal look even worse since everybody pretty much agrees that the first 2-3 years of this deal are the only ones that even might be worth the money.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Mar 24, 2008 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trueish

Except I don't see Hunter as having an OBP that high if he hits in the .250s. Shave .10 - .20 off. Same goes for SLG to a lesser extent.

I could see a BA around .265 - .270, with that OBP/SLG line

by jumanjifan01 on Mar 24, 2008 3:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

True

Maybe a bit higher BA but his OBP/SLG looks about right to me

by DC Royal on Mar 24, 2008 5:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

Although I would probably call that "false." Basically, same line as last year, with some fine CF defense and nice basepath speed thrown in. A solid contributor on the AL-West winning Angels.

I leave whether that's considered "a disappointment" or not to others.

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Mar 24, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

Maybe not as bad as John's prediction, but not nearly as good as last year either.

by BenB on Mar 24, 2008 6:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

FALSE

As a Twins fan, I know first hand Torii's tendencies. He was our ONLY consistent hitter last season and really has been an improved hitter over the past couple. I think he'll start off slow with the Angels but eventually will pick up the slack by mid-May and get back to his normal, free-swingin' self.

The Diamond Cutter

by Diamond Cutter on Mar 24, 2008 6:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

False

He's a nice fit with the hitters around him to take the pressure of his bat. I see him going .285/.350/.500

by vetsurg on Mar 24, 2008 8:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

false- the power is there and the defense- maybe a small dropoff but he will be considered a key piece to the teams success so he will consisdered a success-

Long term not so much- He won't finish that contract

by ribman on Mar 24, 2008 8:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hitters around him

Don't actually matter (much, anyway) when it comes to this. People like to talk about it "protection" but there's nothing to suggest it's real.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Mar 24, 2008 8:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Chris Duncan

Might have benefitted just a bit from having some guy names Pujols behind him.

by killa on Mar 25, 2008 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In that case...

...every #2 hitter in baseball is actually worse than his numbers.

by dwintheiser on Mar 26, 2008 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hunter 2008 = DL

For the previous couple of seasons before his contract year, Torii was having some difficulty staying healthy. I would expect that to return in 2008.

I think the numbers will be a little better than John's prediction, but think 350 plate appearances. Maybe Torri will hit the DL early and they'll convert Brandon Wood into a corner outfielder.

by tcbobo on Mar 24, 2008 9:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

False

Those number excede Hunters career averages except for the batting average. I dont know how those numbers can be a disappointing season for the Angels. He has had a higher OBP than .325 in recent years though, I'll give him that.

For the people who are saying he will have a .280/.350/.520 line that is highly unlikely. He had a year like that last year and in 2002 and he only broke .520 SLG in '02. A repeat isnt likely. Also if he has an OBP remotely close to .350 I will be amazed. He hasn't ever been close and it's doubtful he ever will be.

Hunters legs are also declining. I doubt he will have more than 20 SBs... if that.

I'm still gonna say he will "excede" the "disappointing offensive season" line and hit .274/.327/.478

by clutchhit20 on Mar 25, 2008 12:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

false

but it'll be just as bad in reality. only that because he hit for a better average and swipe more bags that he gives Angel fans (or at least their announcers / FO ) orgasim regardless that he's OBP / SLG actually isn't that good.

by RollingWave on Mar 25, 2008 11:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

True...

But that's only a disappointment if the Angels are somehow expecting some sort of magical breakout year in Torii's age 32 season from a guy whose career OPS is 793. If Torii puts up those numbers, puts up the 15-20 SB he puts up, and mans the position capably, the Angels shouldn't be disappointed. If they are, it's their own fault for setting the bar too high with that stupid contract.

Roto Think Tank

by Mike Gianella on Mar 26, 2008 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

True

Not only that, but Torii should end up with overall numbers during the life of his contract slightly (or more) lower than his career numbers, meaning that Hunter will end up being viewed as a disappointing acquisition.

by dwintheiser on Mar 26, 2008 8:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs