True or False? Edinson Volquez Edition
by John Sickels
on Mar 22, 2008 1:06 PM EDT
I'm going to be extremely busy this coming week and won't have time to do much blogging. But we need to keep things going here, so Jeri and I will make sure there is a good discussion thread open for you each day. We'll call this True or False Week: I will throw out a statement about a player, and you guys can discuss whether the statement is True or False.
The topic for this weekend is Edinson Volquez of the Cincinnati Reds.
True or False: Edinson Volquez's strong spring training performance is not an illusion. His command really has come around, and he will pitch very well this year, winning 12-14 games with an ERA around 4.00 and strong K/IP and K/BB ratios.
Discuss the truth or falsity of this statement.
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True
I think the time spent last year down on the farm gaining confidence was good for him and it has carried over.
by MHD on Mar 22, 2008 1:43 PM EDT 0 recs
TRUE
His 2.6+ K/bb ratio, coupled with his GB% in the minors will finally translate now that he is out of Texas. Dude doesn't give up many long balls, and all the spring training comments indicate that Dusty is ready to give this guy lots of (probably too many) innings as a starter.
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by mattyc44 on Mar 22, 2008 2:06 PM EDT 0 recs
True
I think the combination of the NL Central, plus the confidence to attack the strike zone that he seems to have gained will lead to a big step forward for him.
I really think both the Reds and Rangers are going to win big on that trade.
by grozzy on Mar 22, 2008 2:07 PM EDT 0 recs
True
Only thing holding him back from being an ace is the lack of a wicked 3rd pitch.
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by rooster on Mar 22, 2008 2:30 PM EDT 0 recs
True
Watching him pitch this spring twice now, he just looks absolutely confident in his abilities. His mechanics have looked strong and his curveball has looked decently good at times this spring, although I am not sure he needs it to be with his FB/CU.
http://www.redsminorleagues.com
by dougdirt on Mar 22, 2008 2:32 PM EDT 0 recs
False
I'm actually just being a contrarian, I think it's probably true (in the abstract).
But I also think if he is as good as he's looked this past spring training Dusty Baker will really run him through the ringer, and as he tires out he'll lose some of those gains.
"I'd like to f*ck Sandra Bullock." - Pedro Martinez, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.
by OCD SS on Mar 22, 2008 3:25 PM EDT 0 recs
False
I have seen Volquezpitch at 3 different levels for Texas last year AA, AAA, and MLB.
Even if it is the league, i dont see him maintaining his current level of dominace.
His BABIP #'s in the minors have as much to do with his improvement as it does his turning the corner.
Put him back to league average BABIP and yes he made improvement last year but his whip would even back out to the1.2 ,1.3 range.
by laxtonto on Mar 22, 2008 4:00 PM EDT 0 recs
False
I take spring training with a grain of salt, so there really isn't anything about spring that will make me forget about control problems the last few years. He could make strides forward this year as he seems to be improving, but I would be more like to say that he will still walk too many guys. He'll probably hover around 10% BB/PA.
His BABIP was low last season in the minors, which caused a lot of the improvement. He hasn't seemed to maintained a steady GB% (dipped down to 39% in his MLB stint last year) which will hurt him in the long run, especially in an HR park like Cincy, which was 2nd to Philly in HRs in the NL. Not to mention, his defense won't do his ERA too many favors with Dunn and Griffey missing balls to the gap every start.
I think he'll maintain a healthy K/9 and probably win some games, but I think a 4.50 ERA is more in order for him. Some flashes of great stuff, but also some games where he gets shelled early. Despite choosing false, it's still a seccessful campaign for him and he'll improve in 2009.
by count sutton on Mar 22, 2008 4:41 PM EDT 0 recs
are you sure about your understanding of BABIP?
to my knowledge BABIP standards are only fully applicable to the MLB level, and not at the minor league level. at the very least there is quite a different standard depending on league.
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by jbluestone on Mar 22, 2008 5:16 PM EDT 0 recs
BABIP
A BABIP of .253 - which is what Volquez had last year in AA - is not sustainable in any league. He will regress toward the mean this season, whether it's in the majors or minors.
There isn't any reason why pitching in the minors would mean BABIP is not an applicable stat. It's a decent indicator at quantifying luck no matter the context.
by count sutton on
Mar 22, 2008 10:19 PM EDT
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I've been looking into BABIP...
for a while, and from what I understand, BABIP is a stat that is internally consistent, meaning some players maintain a high BABIP (like Ichiro), and some maintain a low one (like Glaus), the same goes for pitchers, which is the first time I remember this stat being examined. The theory was that pitchers don't control BABIP, which was shown to be false, as the better pitchers had a consistently lower BABIP than league average.
What does this tell us? Well, what it should mean is that BABIP is useful if you have a large enough sample. So if Player X has a 280, 300, 290 BABIP for the past three seasons, and then hits 400 in the current season, then he SHOULD regress the next season. This is the first season that I've really been closely examining BABIP, but the case I just described fits Soto, so if BABIP has any predictive value, then we should see a substantial regression by Soto this year.
You can also use league average when examining first year players, but that examination is far more suspect because some players maintain a high BABIP and some don't, so you can't simply assume someone like Snider will regress because his BABIP in the midwest was elevated as compared to league average.
I'm also not saying players can't improve, it's possible that a guy with a low BABIP could elevate his, or as a pitcher puts it all together, he could lower his personal mean.
However, in the case of Soto, no one, majors or minors, has ever maintained a 400+ BABIP, not Ichiro, Jeter, Kendrick or anyone, so I'd say there's very little chance of a repeat from last year.
I haven't looked at Vol very closely, so I can't really weigh into the discussion in that way, but just to lend my thoughts about BABIP in general.
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by beastball on
Mar 23, 2008 2:11 PM EDT
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True
I'm not going to think that he is going to completely harness his command. But there is no reason to think that his command has not at least improved. Put him in the NL and I think he can be a very effective starting pitcher.
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by bbdbrandon on Mar 22, 2008 5:28 PM EDT 0 recs
True
As much as people think that his command has improved, I just think he has learned that he has good enough stuff to where he doesn't have to nibble. That will probably come back and bite him with a few too many HR, but I think the improvements are for real and he'll post a good season.
by Dfarth on Mar 22, 2008 8:14 PM EDT 0 recs
Not today....
Cueto just got lit up.
0.2ip, 3H (including a 3 Run HR to Carlos Pena), 5ER and 5 BB to go with 0K. 41 pitches in the first before being removed from the game.
http://www.redsminorleagues.com
by dougdirt on
Mar 23, 2008 1:34 PM EDT
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false
He will allow too many homers to have an ERA around 4.00. I predict it will be between 4.5 and 5.
by bolton on Mar 23, 2008 1:01 AM EDT 0 recs
TRUE
From what I've seen of him this spring he looks like a completely different pitcher out there. His mechanics look in sync and most importantly (as many have mentioned) he finally looks confident out there. He's going to help solidify that Reds rotation in a big way.
by Diamond Cutter on Mar 23, 2008 11:42 AM EDT 0 recs
True
A few too many HR and walks, but a good enough K rate to keep his ERA just under 4.
by ManConley on Mar 23, 2008 8:51 PM EDT 0 recs
False
I love Volquez, but an under 4.00 ERA just does not seem feasible to me. I think he'll be more than serviceable though, and could see that type of success in the near future.
by coochorama on Mar 24, 2008 2:27 PM EDT 0 recs
False
His spring gains are real, but he'll regress with his command in Cincy this season, pushing his ERA north of 4.25, with mediocre K/BB rates and high FB rates (which will hurt him at GABP).
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on Mar 24, 2008 6:04 PM EDT 0 recs
true and false- he's a legit talent who once he gets command can be an ace-I believe he took a step forward last year and will take another this year but in that park- it can humble you with a few bad starts.
Cincy rotation? is this a sleeper rotation or what-
Harang
Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
H Bailey
that looks pretty promising if the stars align
by ribman on Mar 24, 2008 8:33 PM EDT 0 recs
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