Community Projection: Zack Greinke

by John Sickels on Mar 22, 2008 12:42 PM EDT Comment 20 comments

Well now it's time for our annual "What Can We Expect from Zack Greinke?" post.

I'm always optimistic about Zack but I don't want to give my projection away until next week. It's written down and hidden in a secure location, so whatever you guys project here won't influence it.

For Zack, project the following:

Games/Games Started/Innings Pitched/Hits Allowed/Runs Allowed/Earned Runs Allowed/ERA/Wins/Losses/Homers allowed/Complete Games/Shutouts/Saves

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Greinke projection

32 Games
32 Games Started
210 Innings Pitched
195 Hits Allowed
80 Runs Allowed
74 Earned Runs Allowed
3.17 ERA
16 Wins
10 Losses
25 Homers allowed
2 Complete Games
1Shutouts
0 Saves

by royallyspeaking on Mar 22, 2008 1:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Greinke

32 Games
32 Games Started
205 IP
190 Hits
78 Runs allowed
70 ER allowed
3.60 ERA
15 Wins
9 Losses
27 HR Allowed
3 CG
1 Shutout
0 Saves

by SniderDH on Mar 22, 2008 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ERA calculation is off

70 ER in 205 IP works out to an ERA of 3.07-which I'd love to see since I've got him on a couple of fantasy teams and just really want to see the kid succeed in general.

"You're a terrible ballplayer, but you've always been a great asshole."-salb918 on Ozzie Guillen

by gatling on Mar 22, 2008 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Greinke

32 Games
32 Games started
194 IP
185 H
90 R
84 ER
3.90 ERA
12 W
14 L
24 HR
1 CG
0 SHO
0 SV

by grozzy on Mar 22, 2008 1:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

zack attack

Games - 33
Games Started - 33
IP - 198
H - 192
R - 87
ER - 80
ERA - 3.64
Wins - 14
Losses - 11
HR - 25
CG - 1
SHO - 1
SV - 0

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Mar 22, 2008 2:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

not as optimistic as above...

G: 32
GS: 32
IP: 208
H: 219
R: 110
ER: 100
ERA: 4.33
W: 11
L: 12
HR: 20
CG: 0
SHO: 0
SV: 0

by DenverBears on Mar 22, 2008 3:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Greinke

34 Games
34 Games Started
217 Innings Pitched
212 Hits Allowed
100 Runs Allowed
90 Earned Runs Allowed
3.73 ERA
13 Wins
11 Losses
20 Homers allowed
2 Complete Games
0 Shutouts
0 Saves

by iheartfdr on Mar 22, 2008 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Predicting The Greinke

32 Games
32 Starts
201 Innings Pitched
185 Hits Allowed
85 Runs Allowed (Earned)
3.85 ERA
13 Wins
8 Loses
16 HR Allowed
0 Complete Games
0 Shutouts
0 Saves

The internet's latest attempt at understanding the insides of baseball.

by bbdbrandon on Mar 22, 2008 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Greinke

32 Games
31 Games Started
197 Innings Pitched
193 Hits Allowed
3.77 ERA
14 Wins
11 Losses
1 Complete Game
0 Shutouts
0 Saves

by finite24 on Mar 22, 2008 6:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

he can build off his successful year, but I think the innings projections so far are too high...I think it would be cruel IMO to have him pitch more than 160 innings given he pitched 100 last year (we have Trey Hillman, not Dusty Baker). I think I once read an article that you shouldn't pitch more than 30 innings above your max innings in the previous year, but I don't profess to be any sort of expert on pitching. Anyway, here are my projections:

30 Games
25 Games Started
160 Innings
165 Hits allowed
80 Runs allowed
73 Earned Runs
4.10 ERA
10 Wins
8 Losses
20 Homers allowed
1 Complete Games
1 Shutout
0 Saves

by ZackAttack on Mar 23, 2008 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re: 2008 Greinke

Slow but steady improvement...

25/25 GS
168 IP
151 H
23 2b
18 HR
80 ER
83 R
4.28 ERA
54 BB
119 SO
10 W
7 L

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Mar 23, 2008 8:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

BB/K/Whip

Seeing as how most people on this site view pitchers not by ERA an W, but by K/BB/WHIP (and other more detailed components) this projection seems meaningless without those things included.

by rothe on Mar 23, 2008 8:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

K/BB/WHIP

can be calculated

by playingwithfire on Mar 24, 2008 2:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

Please give me the formula for calculating K and BB's. I'm a little slow....

by rothe on Mar 24, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Emerges

Yep it's a breakout-
G 32
Gs 32
Ings 204
Hits 197
Runs 78
Ear Runs 71
ERA 3.13
Wins 19
Loss 6
HRA 17
CG 2
Sh 2
K's 177
W 46
Sv 0

3rd in CY Young to boot

yeah that's right I went there -

by ribman on Mar 24, 2008 12:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Strange, very strange

Many have him giving up close to a hit per inning but also have very good ERA and low or moderate HR ratios.

Watching him pitch this is not at all the type of pitcher he is.

1) Will give up more than his share of HRs. Between the fastball and pitching up in the zone that will do it.
2) Will get more K's than people credit
3) Will give up less hits

I think I'm being overly optimistic thinking a 3.5 ERA and so many are predicting better than this?

by pedrophile on Mar 24, 2008 9:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm a huge Greinke fan

yet i find 90% of these projections of success to be delusuional at a Rumsfeldian level

by DC Royal on Mar 24, 2008 5:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Check the 2nd Half Numbers

he was pretty amazing and at not that long ago he was the best pitching prospect in baseball-

This is a case where I'm tired of seeing the same old projections people reading their favorite various sources and averaging them out- duh- I want to know which guys are going to be severly under-over valued-rated etc- I know what the leading fantasy sources say -and all pretty much average out the 3 year trend- so freaking what -

That's why I like John he does go on the limb for a guy he sees something in- but can back it up- I think Grienke is a reasonable breakout candidate and his support skills-history etc back it up- My projection is a %15-20 play but the overall message is I beleive this guy can be an ace and he will have a significant step forward year

Things like wins can't really be projected after all- but these middle of the road averagings are useless- people need to suggest is he going to slide or is he a legit big pitcher- everything else is mental masturbation. Everyone wants the flash- the 1rst year pitcher who is the fantasy poster boy but most pitchers evolve. He has 3 years to grow and made a big jump last year.

2nd half 2.44 era 1.10 whip 8 k's per 9 2.4 walks per9
Hr per 9 0.6 - (1rst half 1.1) if he gets his fb rate down a little bit more with maturity- that gets him over the hump

by ribman on Mar 24, 2008 8:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mine are the same as last year...

Games: 31
Games started: 31
Innings: 201
Runs: 76
ER: 71
ERA: 3.18
W: 15
L: 9
Ks: 174
BB: 34
Hits: 184
HR Allowed: 14
CG: 3
SO: 1
SV: 0

by Havok1517 on Mar 25, 2008 12:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Changing my tune

I was one of the few that thought Grienke was a bust (mainly from a mental standpoint). However, I was throughly impressed with his performance last season and expect him to improve upon it this year.

That said, I think most of the projections have been far too optimistic especially in the arena of innings pitched and his ability to miss bats. The Central Division has some decent (Chi-Sox), very good (Indians) and unbelievable (Tigers) offensive teams. Just three starts against the Tigers could hammer at a pitcher's ERA.

Games: 29
Games started: 28
Innings: 173
Runs: 83
ER: 74
ERA: 3.85
W: 11
L: 9
Ks: 152
BB: 64
Hits: 180
HR Allowed: 22
CG: 1
SO: 1
SV: 0

by Sage Sam on Mar 26, 2008 7:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs