Casey Kotchman Community Projection

by John Sickels on Mar 22, 2008 12:37 PM EDT

Community Projection results for Casey Kotchman:

We had 23 entries. The results were 138 games, 473 at-bats, 75 runs, 143 hits, 35 doubles, 1 triple, 16 homers, 80 RBI, 59 walks, 56 strikeouts, 3 steals, 3 caught stealing, .302/.380/.484 line.

That seems like a reasonable extrapolation from his .296/.372/..467 mark last year. Shandler agrees and has him at .300/.365/.477. For once James is something of a pessimist at 273/.350/.434. ZIPS is similar at .273/.350/.445. Weighted Mean PECOTA is .288/.362/.441. So the community projection is the most optimistic of all.

What do you think about this? Is the CP too good?

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Depends on Scoscia

If the skipper lets him see too many lefties, than those numbers are definitely going to be lower than the CP. If he platoons, then the CP could end up being spot-on.

Your mother was a hamster and your father smelled of Ellsburys!

by mattyc44 on Mar 22, 2008 2:09 PM EDT reply actions

Too Low

I made one of those projections, taking his ab's per game and adding my projected inccerease in power...walks and few more games played. After i posted I noticed that even with 144 Games he had a low ab total. Well, besides games he missed entirely with injuries or to a lefty he also pinch-hit like 21 times. I think he'll hit 25-27 homers... score around 90 runs and drive in around 100. IF he can stay healthy and thats been a big IF with him. He is SO talented as a hitter though and capable of much more power as he develops.

by casejud on Mar 22, 2008 5:22 PM EDT reply actions

hmmmm...

... I totally missed that one even being posted. I think thats a pretty reasonable projection for him though. If he stays healthy at least. He certainly should be a high average hitter. I might see a little less power but probably right about there.

by grozzy on Mar 22, 2008 9:41 PM EDT reply actions

Kotchman

I think he (if given the full time job) will develop more power this season. 20-24 homers would not be surprising.

by LargeBill on Mar 23, 2008 12:44 PM EDT reply actions

Flawed Statistical Analysis

As usual, the statistical projections are flawed because they ignore context. Kotchman was injured twice last year, and his numbers dropped as a result. He was hit in the head by a pickoff throw mid-season that clouded his mind and threw off his timing. When he was activated, he got drilled in the hand by Mariano Rivera so he lost some hand strength.

If he stays healthy, Kotchman has a .900 OPS at minimum.

by FutureAngels on Mar 29, 2008 11:59 AM EDT reply actions