Not a Rookie: Matt Kemp

by John Sickels on Mar 20, 2008 4:16 PM EDT

Not a Rookie: Matt Kemp

Matt Kemp was drafted in the sixth round by the Dodgers in 2003, out of high school in Midwest City, Oklahoma. He was considered very toolsy and athletic, but rather raw, best-known as a basketball player in high school. He hit .270/.298/.346 in 42 games for the Gulf Coast League Dodgers after signing. I didn’t give put him in the 2004 book, but a similar player nowadays would get a Grade C “with higher potential” rating. His strike zone judgment was quite poor in the early going.

Plate discipline remained a problem in 2004 but it wasn’t enough to prevent him from hitting .288/.330/.499 with 17 homers in 111 games for Columbus in the Sally League. He hit .351 in 11 games for Vero Beach late in the season. He drew 28 walks against 112 strikeouts on the year, but his tools were obvious. I gave him a Grade C+ in the book, impressed with his production but noting that while his upside was great, “the same can be said for innumerable tools burnouts like Reggie Abercrombie.” I advised the Dodgers to give him as much time at Vero Beach in 2005 as possible.

I don’t know if they read my book or not but that’s exactly what they did in ’05, leaving him in the Florida State League all year. He responded with a .306/.349/.569 mark, with 27 homers and 23 steals. I remained concerned enough with his plate discipline to give him a Grade C+ in the 2006 book. In retrospect I should definitely have given him at least a Grade B.

Kemp began 2006 in Double-A, hitting .327/.399/.528 in 48 games. He split the rest of the year between Triple-A and the majors, dominating Vegas to a .363/.423/.555 tune but struggling with the strike zone in the Show.. He got into 52 major league games, hitting .253/.289/.448 and losing his rookie eligibility. Last year he played 98 games for the Dodgers, hitting .324/.344/.496. He has now played 150 major league games, hitting .312/.344/.496 with 17 homers, 25 walks, and 119 strikeouts in 446 at-bats.

Plate discipline is still an issue for him, but Kemp is one of those guys who has such tremendous bat speed that it hasn’t hurt him much, even in the majors. He doesn’t have to become a walk machine, of course, and he did reduce his strikeout rate last year, a very good sign. My guess is that major league pitchers will make some adjustments in their approach and we will see his batting average drop, but we’re still talking about a guy who should hit .280-.290 with 25/20 production. At age 23 he has plenty of time to improve beyond that.

Short-term projections

Shandler: .290/.331/.466

James: .322/.365/.508

ZIPS: .303/.348/.483

Weighted Mean PECOTA: .298/.351/.509

Me: .287/.337/.497

I’m one of the “pessimists” and I love the guy.. I just think he needs a year to consolidate.

Longer-term, if Kemp develops along a normal curve he’s got a great shot at being an excellent player. Positive PECOTA comps include Derek Bell, Chili Davis, Andre Dawson, Sammy Sosa, Ellis Burks, Ray Lankford, and Ruben Sierra. Cautionary notes are sounded by the presence of Todd Hollandsworth, Pedro Munoz, and Ruben Mateo on the list. Hollandsworth and Munoz were useful role players, and only the injury-busted Mateo is a big red flag.

Kemp still makes mistakes of inexperience with baserunning and fielding, and his name keeps popping up in trade rumors. I think that’s nuts. This guy has one of the brightest futures in baseball. It would not surprise me to see him emerge as an MVP candidate as soon as 2009.

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Comps

I'm curious, are his comps spit out by a machine or is it the usual, "he has a chance to be as good as (insert random above average black player".)

If those comps were from a computer I'd be shocked.

Imagine Pacman Jones "Making it Rain" with $81,000 worth of coins. -JFP

by Wonderlic on Mar 20, 2008 7:36 PM EDT 0 recs

PECOTA

PECOTA comps are generated by Baseball Prospectus and as far as I know it is done by computer.

by John Sickels on Mar 20, 2008 8:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

re

That's what I thought too with Pecota being involved but that thing spit out like 7 black players, what are the odds of that? I wonder height/weight/race are thrown into the equation in a small way, I wouldn't think so but that sure seems more than coincidental. Not a big deal or anything.

Is it me or are comments down since the new look?

Imagine Pacman Jones "Making it Rain" with $81,000 worth of coins. -JFP

by Wonderlic on Mar 20, 2008 11:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

PECOTA

takes into account height, weight, age, and a variety of other things. I doubt very seriously that it takes into account race. There's no reason why it would. And if you look at Kemp's full list, it doesn't appear as though it does. Todd Hollandsworth, white as they come, is #2. Corey Hart, also white, is #4. I don't think there's a race component; it's just a coincidence.

Where Anne hath a will, Anne Hathaway.

by woodstein52 on Mar 21, 2008 12:29 AM EDT up 0 recs

Why should it not be a coincidence?

Attributes of Kemp are that he's big, has good speed but isn't a tremendous burner with SBs, plays CF/RF, has come up young, has good power but is not exclusively a slugger, etc. etc. Perhaps this happens to disproportionately fit the profile of African American players, and that's why the computer picks the comps it does.

And Ruben Mateo and Sammy Sosa are hispanic anyway.

by siddfynch on Mar 21, 2008 11:01 AM EDT up 0 recs

Sorry

that was a reply to Wonderlic

by siddfynch on Mar 21, 2008 11:02 AM EDT up 0 recs

re

Comments do seem down a bit on the new format but I'm sure they'll come back after the transition period progresses.

As far as the race thing: coincidental

by Illadelph on Mar 21, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

stats

Me: .287/.337/.497

"I’m one of the "pessimists" and I love the guy.. I just think he needs a year to consolidate."

I'll take those pessimistic any day of the week.

by sabernar on Mar 20, 2008 9:01 PM EDT 0 recs

Kemp part of Dodgers' future?

Kemp regularly throws to the wrong base, forgets how many outs there are and was the target of Jeff Kent's wrath last year...........Because of all of this is there any reason to think the Dodgers may have soured on him. I think he is a future stud but a friend who is very familiar with the Dodgers says that he is no longer part of the Dodgers' long-term plans because of these gaffes, which seem to happen almost every game. Is he blowing things out of proportion? I'm guessing that these are simply growing pains that come with being so new to the sport. What do you guys think?

by psugator on Mar 21, 2008 7:51 AM EDT 0 recs

I sincerely hope

he's blowing things out of proportion. First of all, those things don't happen in every game; they just seem like they do because they stick out. Secondly, to write off a kid with as much talent as Kemp because he's still learning is an idiotic thing to do.

So I wouldn't put it past Ned Colletti at all, now that I think about it.

Where Anne hath a will, Anne Hathaway.

by woodstein52 on Mar 21, 2008 12:19 PM EDT up 0 recs