Assessing Fernando Martinez

by John Sickels on Mar 19, 2008 12:40 PM EDT Comment 7 comments

Assessing Fernando Martinez

I get frequent questions from Mets fans about Fernando Martinez. How good will he be? How soon will he be ready? How much power will he develop? It sounds like a copout, but the most honest answer is that I simply don't know at this point. Perhaps this violates the rules of sports punditry to admit I don't know something. But I have to call it like I see it, and if I can't see something yet, I think it's dishonest to pretend that I do.

Martinez has enormous potential, clearly. For a player to hold his own in Double-A at age 18 is remarkable. But it also makes it harder to get a read on what the player may do in the future. Age-relative-to-league is very important, but it's just one factor. While scouts are unanimous about his tools, no one is quite certain about how his skills are going to develop. Some see him developing into a 30+ homer guy, while some think he'll be more of a high batting average guy with OK power, and some see him developing both. Projectability is the watchword here: his present power is quite mediocre, but most players his age are in rookie ball or college, not on the cusp of the majors.

Given a normal growth curve, Martinez should be an excellent player. But the shape that excellence will take is unclear to me. We should also keep in mind that not all growth curves are normal. It's easy to say that he's 10 years from his prime and will develop into a monster, but what if he's an early peaker and tops out his skills at age 23? Even that should still make him excellent, of course. My point is that there is so much we don't know yet about F-Mart.

In an alternate universe the Mets kept him in rookie ball last year and he hit .350. In a case like that we'd say "he's very promising but we need to see him at higher levels" and no one would bat an eyelash at the caveat. In his case, due to the unusual way he's been handled, we have to say "he's very promising but we need to see what happens with another year under his belt."

Would I invest a fantasy pick in Martinez? In a long-term keeper league, absolutely. If I was a Mets fan, would I be super-excited about Martinez? Sure. As a general baseball fan I find his case a fascinating one.

But I know, you guys still want an assessment despite all these doubts. So with all those disclaimers out there, my personal opinion is that F-Mart is going to develop into a Bobby Abreu type. What do you think of that comp?

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I wonder...

If they Mets will actually keep him around long enough to see what he can become.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Mar 19, 2008 12:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Great write up

John, I couldn't agree more with everything you have written. I think it is clear that Fernando has potential, however the way in which it will manifest is certainly unknown.

I believe I've used the Bobby Abreu comparison myself and would like to note a few things about it. First, Abreu has a unique eye at the plate. He consistently walks over 100 times a year with an OBP of over 400. I'm not sure Jesus will get to that level but it would be fantastic if he did.

I think they have similar swings and approaches at the plate. In the field I think they are similar as well however I hope that Fernando doesn't end up being afraid of walls in the future.

Overall I love the comp, no mets fan should be unhappy with a career like Bobby Abreu's for Jesus Fernando Martinez.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by JDSussman on Mar 19, 2008 12:54 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Carlos Lee is the common one

With the Abreu comp, I really, really don't like comps that don't take plate discipline into account.

F-Mart is a great natural talent, but I think the bust potential is high with the way the Mets have pushed him. Not being a complete embarrassment in AA isn't enough.

by number_twentyone on Mar 19, 2008 1:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I tend to think of him somewhat as a

David Justice type hitter, with around the same peak numbers, but likely a higher average off of peak. Suffice to say, I think he's going to be an excellent hitter.

by grozzy on Mar 19, 2008 5:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

don't like the Abreu comp

I don't really see it -- he's often used as a comp for Tabata, and that makes a lot more sense to me although in both cases I think Abreu is settled on more as a 'safe good player ceiling/not on a limb' comp than anything inherent.

I think Martinez:
- will hit for a high average -- the one thing I've seen from him is that he squares up the ball solid. I'm confident on that.
-will have decent plate discipline.
-and, here going more out on a limb, will have terrific power. He shows it in batting practice, he's had doubles' power up until now, and there's that mantra that power develops with age and/or those doubles turn into homers. I don't think that's any sort of rule, and tend to shrug when that is said. In Martinez's case, however, he does have great hand-eye coordination, he does square up the ball, he is very strong, and he does hit shots in BP. To me, that just means it's a matter of development until he's a big-time home run guy.

Speculation, of course, but so are all the guesses -- just because they're more conservative guesses doesn't mean they're any less speculative or any more likely to be right.

So who is the comp for what I just described? Perhaps Matt Holliday?

by scooter on Mar 19, 2008 8:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree about too young

as in your eval of Engel Beltre. A year from now it will much easier to hazard a guess, and even then both guys will have a ways to go.

A working class hero is something to be.

by t ball on Mar 19, 2008 10:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re: at least he doesn't look overmatched

The times I've watched F-Mart on TV he doesn't look lost...and unlike a lot of Mets prospects he does not flail at pitches that are ten feet out of the strike zone.

He looks like an impact player when he plays but he needs time, and I don't know if the Mets have the patience to just let him play a full season at one minor league stop.
It's not like he had a bang out season in any of his stays (yes, he was incredibly young for the levels and yes, he was injured)

I can see him turn into say, a 30+ HR guy, with adequate plate discipline and a .270-.280 BA.

Optimistically, he turns into a Garret Anderson type. I don't see Abreu in F-Mart he seems to lack Abreu-ish speed and at this point, his plate discipline simply isn't good enough.

just out of curiosity... why rush the kid to the majors?

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Mar 23, 2008 9:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Rush

I don't see the FMart treatment as a rush job, to be honest. He was adapting and holding his own quite nicely (300BA) pre-injury as an 18 year old in AA. While some may prefer to see a prospect dominate a level before promoting him, I lean towards being more aggressive with a prospect, and in particular, a very gifted one. If the player shows that he has learned how to handle a certain level and is now performing as you'd like him to (even if the culmulative numbers are somewhat lacking) then move him forward. In the case of a player like F-Mart, he is physically incapable of showing the kind of dominance that many on this site would look for. They'd want power production from him, and that is simply impossible due to his youth. What you can look for is contact, plate discipline, and maturity.

In the case of FMart, the Mets can afford to bring him along quickly as it is beneficial to him to see as much MLB-level pitching as possible so he can adjust and enter his prime as early as possible. The Mets have the resources to pay him when his time comes, so the focus should be solely on player development rather than fiscal responsibility.

If a player is ready for a level, I say put him there. This is largely without regard to his age and production in total and, frankly, is more involved with his scouting. FMart looks to me to be ready for AA right now, and in short order, a promotion to AAA. It is not inconceivable that he will be MLB-ready by September. He is a very, very special hitter and I think his long term low end production looks something like Carlos Lee. His upside is a player who belongs in the Hall of Fame.

by GuyinNY on Mar 25, 2008 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs