Around the Cape of Magellan: Catcher

by wily mo on Mar 18, 2008 6:27 PM EDT

I've been wanting for a while to do a position-by-position prospect rundown series, just to pass the time, and I'm finding the new system finely inspirational.

I figured calling it "Around the Horn" would be a cliche, so I'm going to call it "Around the Cape of Magellan". I know it's actually Cape Horn and the Straits of Magellan, but let's agree to ignore that.

So. Catchers. Here's how they shook out in the last version of my top 100 that I have on record, from January 17 (so says the last modified date on my laptop, anyway):

5 - Matt Wieters, BAL - love him.

28 - Geovany Soto, CHC - pretty much the best hitter in the minors last year; despite his age and the PCL, I mostly buy it.

36 - Jeff Clement, SEA - was always skeptical, but some of the more recent reports on his zone control and contact ability have encouraged me.

57 - Max Ramirez, TEX - this is pretty high, based on my "just hit" credo. but he's probably not really a catcher.

58 - Jesus Montero, NYY - same basic deal.

63 - Taylor Teagarden, TEX - galt's use of mike napoli as an offensive comp for his cal league numbers is sort of fascinating.

68 - Hank Conger, ANA - i'm cooling on him a bit now with this shoulder injury thing.

71 - JR Towles, HOU - not sure why i had him this low. i guess i read some stuff about flaws in his swing. we'll see.

95 - Wilson Ramos, MIN - our up and comer.

Others I'd listed in the holding tank:

Josh Donaldson, CHC

uh, i guess that's it.

So who else is relevant? Some other catchers of note, divided into two groups, will follow.

(EDITED thursday 3/20 10:31AM EST)

group 1: "close and solid" (carlos ruiz division)

Bryan Anderson, STL

Mitch Canham, SD

John Jaso, TB

Lou Marson, PHI

Craig Tatum, CIN

Jonathan Lucroy, MIL

Ed Easley, ARI

James Skelton, DET

JP Arencibia, TOR - i hate him

Lars Davis, COL

Jackson Williams, SF

Matt McBride, CLE

Adam Moore, SEA

group 2: "farther off and maybe awesome" (hank conger division)

Tyler Flowers, ATL - my latest "the guy" among catchers, supplanting ramos (who i still like, of course - he's just not the newest any more) - played more 1B last year due to injury, but can catch and can hit (supposedly)

Devin Mesoraco, CIN

Austin Romine, NYY

Travis d'Arnaud, PHI

Angel Salome, MIL

Mike McKenry, COL - hit well last year, don't know much else

Luis de la Cruz, STL

Max Sapp, HOU

Francisco Pena, NYM

Danny Rams, MIN - fascinating to me, as he's been described: 80 power + 80 arm + no other tools

Robinzon Diaz, TOR

Got all that? So, ok. Here it comes:

Wily Mo's Overall Top 30 Catchers (of Magellan)

(EDITED thursday 3/20 10:31AM EST)

Matt Wieters, BAL
Geovany Soto, CHC
Jeff Clement, SEA*
JR Towles, HOU
Taylor Teagarden, TEX+
Wilson Ramos, MIN+
Jesus Montero, NYY*
Josh Donaldson, CHC
Tyler Flowers, ATL
Max Ramirez, TEX*
Lou Marson, PHI+
Mitch Canham, SD
Craig Tatum, CIN+
John Jaso, TB*
Bryan Anderson, STL
Hank Conger, ANA*
Devin Mesoraco, CIN
Austin Romine, NYY
Jonathan Lucroy, MIL
Ed Easley, ARI
Travis d'Arnaud, PHI+
Angel Salome, MIL
Mike McKenry, COL
James Skelton, DET
Jackson Williams, SF+
Francisco Pena, NYM
Luis de la Cruz, STL
Lars Davis, COL
Matt McBride, CLE
Danny Rams, MIN*

* - particularly questionable to stick at C
+ - exceptionally likely to stick

So, what's wrong with this? I really started making stuff up right around Canham or so.

7 recs | Comment 28 comments

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Comments

Jaso

can hit and his defense has significantly improved. If he stays healthy, he's going to be a pretty good player. Way to low.

by Tyler on Mar 18, 2008 6:37 PM EDT 0 recs

jaso's defense

has it? BUT YOU ARE A FAN OF HIS TEAM

by wily mo on Mar 18, 2008 7:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

It has

His shoulder has gotten healthy it seems. He was the full-time starting catcher during the 2nd half of the season in AA. Yeah, I'm probably biased when it comes to the Rays prospects, and Jaso's one of my favorites. So I fully admit my bias there, but the dude can hit. Callis likes him and says his defense is now "solid" the biggest question mark, as I said is injury. His shoulder has always bothered him, but was finally healthy the second half of last year. We'll see, but if his shoulder is indeed fine, he'll skyrocket.

by Tyler on Mar 18, 2008 9:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

i just wanted to say

it took me about 45 seconds to parse "Way to low." was it supposed to be way to go? way to bow? way to mow? way to pow? way to loe? for whatever reason, it was only like the 5th thing that occurred to me to try changing the second word--there just *had* to be something wrong with the third word.

by jpahk on Mar 18, 2008 10:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

towles

I like him a lot, but I like where you slotted him as well. I think he has Russell Martin - lite upside.

Jack Cust is this year's Marcus Thames

by Team Moneyball on Mar 18, 2008 6:56 PM EDT 0 recs

+1

i like where he has him too... though i guess he'd be my #3, since im not a Soto believer yet....

by daveh33 on Mar 18, 2008 9:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

rd

a little bird is telling me that Robinzon Diaz (TOR) should be in the mix.

by wily mo on Mar 18, 2008 7:34 PM EDT 0 recs

this robinzon

even though he cannot, apparently, spell.

by wily mo on Mar 18, 2008 7:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

Cristian Santana

Dude's a pretty nice, if young and unproven, prospect. But then again, you could say something similar about d'Arnaud. But Santana is a guy I expect to climb lists such as this in the next couple of years. Not sure if this will be his break-out year though, given his age and the likelihood he'll be playing for Clinton in the Midwest League.

In fact, I'll go out on a limb and say that Santana will "hold his own" but not impress this year at Clinton, repeat the level next year and break out in a big way at that point.

Is that worthy of top-30 catcher status? I don't know, but I'm sure he's not far behind.

by naropean on Mar 18, 2008 8:20 PM EDT 0 recs

Frank Cervelli

Any thoughts? Great plate discipline and defense. Power is a question - even though the FSL and hitting the wall might have had something to do with it. One of the few catching prospects who's age-appropriate for his league too. A damn shame about his injury.

by number_twentyone on Mar 18, 2008 8:31 PM EDT 0 recs

cervelli

sure, maybe before. but it's over. destroyed by elliot johnson. even if he learns to hit with only one hand, the shame of it is likely career-ending.

by wily mo on Mar 18, 2008 9:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

Uh, what?

That post is a joke, right?

by number_twentyone on Mar 18, 2008 11:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

NO

SHOOT HIM LIKE A RACEHORSE

by wily mo on Mar 20, 2008 10:41 AM EDT up 0 recs

ok, here's my question

why should anybody care about 30 catching prospects? i have a hard time caring about 10.

by jpahk on Mar 18, 2008 10:36 PM EDT 0 recs

because

we're going AROUND THE CAPE OF MAGELLAN. that includes making a list of 30 prospects at every positon, obviously. yes - i'll wager you're licking your chops looking forward to 2B already.

by wily mo on Mar 18, 2008 10:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

Do you mean the Straits of Magellan?

Or Cape Horn?

Because as far as I'm aware there is no Cape of Magellan.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Mar 19, 2008 8:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

Ahem

Clearly, you didn't read the post.

by aCone419 on Mar 19, 2008 11:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

30 at every position, really?

yikes. i could rank 30 outfielders. and 30 RHP. i'm not even sure i could name 30 prospects at any other position.

by jpahk on Mar 19, 2008 10:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

yes, really.

30 per job. 30 shortstops. 90 outfielders (30 CF, 60 corner). 150 pitchers.

by wily mo on Mar 20, 2008 10:42 AM EDT up 1 recs

well ok

not 180 relief pitchers. that would literally kill me.

like a racehorse

by wily mo on Mar 20, 2008 10:42 AM EDT up 0 recs

Do it!

Not that I want you to die or anything :-) It would just be intersting to me at least. Lets get esoteric on this thing eh? Case

by casejud on Mar 22, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

Group 2

If there was a "group 3", he'd certainly be there, but I could see him sneaking into group 2 - Mike McCormick. Had a good OPS in Hudson Valley (which is a pretty bad hitting environment) converting from 3B. Reportedly his defense was better at C than at 3B, though that's not saying much because his defense at third was Uptonesque. Strikes out way too much, but I like the way he's developed so far. Falls into the category of very high upside, but very very raw.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Mar 19, 2008 12:06 AM EDT 0 recs

Soto will be an interesting one...

his stats last year appear inflated by the PCL, and by his abnormally high BABIP. I haven't used BABIP in my evaluations before, so Soto will put it to the test. If it has predictive value in so far as identifying extreme over or under achievers, then Soto should regress a fair amount this year.

I've been watching Jaso. I also think he's underrated. He's shown good batting ability all through his minor league career. His health and D are the main questions, but many seem to feel he's made enough progress to stay behind the plate. I also believe Navarro will break out this year, so even if Jaso made the defense progress many believe he has, and if his offense remains strong, I think he'll be blocked at the major league level. Saying that, however, I do think he's underrated.

Poster formerly known as artie

by beastball on Mar 19, 2008 8:55 AM EDT 0 recs

crap

i made the rec list with garbage! i really meant to write more about the guys and what i liked or didn't like about them and why i ranked them where i did, but i was really tired and lazy last night. maybe i'll edit some stuff in later on this afternoon.

by wily mo on Mar 19, 2008 1:44 PM EDT 1 recs

Landon Powell doesn't even get a sniff?

Come on, the guy had like a .900 OPS last year (and threw out 50% of basestealers) before he blew out his ACL.

He's an injury risk for sure, but his upside is still huge.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Mar 19, 2008 8:27 PM EDT 0 recs

landon powell

he's the new jeremy brown, apparently.

i think he's an injury risk, yes. he's also a small-sample-size risk. he's also an eat-himself-out-of-baseball(-again) risk.

having said all that, i can't imagine making a list of the top 30 catching prospects and leaving him off of it. but that's because i've never heard of more than about 15 catching prospects.

by jpahk on Mar 19, 2008 10:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

i'm over him.

with that second major knee injury, i've pretty well chucked powell into the "not gonna happen" basket. it's of course still possible he'll come back, but i think all of these guys have better chances at this point, even the ones i've barely heard of.

by wily mo on Mar 20, 2008 10:27 AM EDT up 0 recs

why?

I mean, that's a bit extreme. Without the injuries he's right at the top of this list: terrific offensive numbers, very good arm, and apparently deft behind the plate. now 2 ACLs is nothing to sniff at, so obviously he's not at the top of the list. Nonetheless, the potential is still there, he reported this year in tip top shape, and 'if' he's healthy he'll be at the top of the list again.

now...how to quantify that 'if' I don't know. but the idea that he's not more likely to make it than...oh, I don't know, Wilson Ramos....strikes me as overly negative but arguable. To have him behind 30 guys is waaay extreme. 2/3 of them will hardly sniff the major leagues whereas Powell is in AAA and will probably at least be in the majors this year, and if healthy could be an impact player.

overall, by the way, i enjoy this ...looking forward to more around the capes....

by scooter on Mar 22, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up 0 recs