Around the Cape of Magellan: Catcher
by wily mo on Mar 18, 2008 6:27 PM EDT
28 comments
I've been wanting for a while to do a position-by-position prospect rundown series, just to pass the time, and I'm finding the new system finely inspirational.
I figured calling it "Around the Horn" would be a cliche, so I'm going to call it "Around the Cape of Magellan". I know it's actually Cape Horn and the Straits of Magellan, but let's agree to ignore that.
So. Catchers. Here's how they shook out in the last version of my top 100 that I have on record, from January 17 (so says the last modified date on my laptop, anyway):
Others I'd listed in the holding tank:
So who else is relevant? Some other catchers of note, divided into two groups, will follow.
(EDITED thursday 3/20 10:31AM EST)
group 1: "close and solid" (carlos ruiz division)
group 2: "farther off and maybe awesome" (hank conger division)
Got all that? So, ok. Here it comes:
Wily Mo's Overall Top 30 Catchers (of Magellan)
(EDITED thursday 3/20 10:31AM EST)
- Matt Wieters, BAL
- Geovany Soto, CHC
- Jeff Clement, SEA*
- JR Towles, HOU
- Taylor Teagarden, TEX+
- Wilson Ramos, MIN+
- Jesus Montero, NYY*
- Josh Donaldson, CHC
- Tyler Flowers, ATL
- Max Ramirez, TEX*
- Lou Marson, PHI+
- Mitch Canham, SD
- Craig Tatum, CIN+
- John Jaso, TB*
- Bryan Anderson, STL
- Hank Conger, ANA*
- Devin Mesoraco, CIN
- Austin Romine, NYY
- Jonathan Lucroy, MIL
- Ed Easley, ARI
- Travis d'Arnaud, PHI+
- Angel Salome, MIL
- Mike McKenry, COL
- James Skelton, DET
- Jackson Williams, SF+
- Francisco Pena, NYM
- Luis de la Cruz, STL
- Lars Davis, COL
- Matt McBride, CLE
- Danny Rams, MIN*
+ - exceptionally likely to stick
So, what's wrong with this? I really started making stuff up right around Canham or so.
7 recs |
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Jaso
can hit and his defense has significantly improved. If he stays healthy, he's going to be a pretty good player. Way to low.
by Tyler on Mar 18, 2008 6:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
jaso's defense
has it? BUT YOU ARE A FAN OF HIS TEAM
by wily mo on Mar 18, 2008 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It has
His shoulder has gotten healthy it seems. He was the full-time starting catcher during the 2nd half of the season in AA. Yeah, I'm probably biased when it comes to the Rays prospects, and Jaso's one of my favorites. So I fully admit my bias there, but the dude can hit. Callis likes him and says his defense is now "solid" the biggest question mark, as I said is injury. His shoulder has always bothered him, but was finally healthy the second half of last year. We'll see, but if his shoulder is indeed fine, he'll skyrocket.
by Tyler on Mar 18, 2008 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i just wanted to say
it took me about 45 seconds to parse "Way to low." was it supposed to be way to go? way to bow? way to mow? way to pow? way to loe? for whatever reason, it was only like the 5th thing that occurred to me to try changing the second word--there just *had* to be something wrong with the third word.
by jpahk on Mar 18, 2008 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
towles
I like him a lot, but I like where you slotted him as well. I think he has Russell Martin - lite upside.
Jack Cust is this year's Marcus Thames
by Team Moneyball on Mar 18, 2008 6:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
rd
a little bird is telling me that Robinzon Diaz (TOR) should be in the mix.
by wily mo on Mar 18, 2008 7:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
this robinzon
even though he cannot, apparently, spell.
by wily mo on Mar 18, 2008 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cristian Santana
Dude's a pretty nice, if young and unproven, prospect. But then again, you could say something similar about d'Arnaud. But Santana is a guy I expect to climb lists such as this in the next couple of years. Not sure if this will be his break-out year though, given his age and the likelihood he'll be playing for Clinton in the Midwest League.
In fact, I'll go out on a limb and say that Santana will "hold his own" but not impress this year at Clinton, repeat the level next year and break out in a big way at that point.
Is that worthy of top-30 catcher status? I don't know, but I'm sure he's not far behind.
by naropean on Mar 18, 2008 8:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Frank Cervelli
Any thoughts? Great plate discipline and defense. Power is a question - even though the FSL and hitting the wall might have had something to do with it. One of the few catching prospects who's age-appropriate for his league too. A damn shame about his injury.
by number_twentyone on Mar 18, 2008 8:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
cervelli
sure, maybe before. but it's over. destroyed by elliot johnson. even if he learns to hit with only one hand, the shame of it is likely career-ending.
by wily mo on Mar 18, 2008 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uh, what?
That post is a joke, right?
by number_twentyone on Mar 18, 2008 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok, here's my question
why should anybody care about 30 catching prospects? i have a hard time caring about 10.
by jpahk on Mar 18, 2008 10:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
because
we're going AROUND THE CAPE OF MAGELLAN. that includes making a list of 30 prospects at every positon, obviously. yes - i'll wager you're licking your chops looking forward to 2B already.
by wily mo on Mar 18, 2008 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you mean the Straits of Magellan?
Or Cape Horn?
Because as far as I'm aware there is no Cape of Magellan.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 19, 2008 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
30 at every position, really?
yikes. i could rank 30 outfielders. and 30 RHP. i'm not even sure i could name 30 prospects at any other position.
by jpahk on Mar 19, 2008 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, really.
30 per job. 30 shortstops. 90 outfielders (30 CF, 60 corner). 150 pitchers.
by wily mo on Mar 20, 2008 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Group 2
If there was a "group 3", he'd certainly be there, but I could see him sneaking into group 2 - Mike McCormick. Had a good OPS in Hudson Valley (which is a pretty bad hitting environment) converting from 3B. Reportedly his defense was better at C than at 3B, though that's not saying much because his defense at third was Uptonesque. Strikes out way too much, but I like the way he's developed so far. Falls into the category of very high upside, but very very raw.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Mar 19, 2008 12:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Soto will be an interesting one...
his stats last year appear inflated by the PCL, and by his abnormally high BABIP. I haven't used BABIP in my evaluations before, so Soto will put it to the test. If it has predictive value in so far as identifying extreme over or under achievers, then Soto should regress a fair amount this year.
I've been watching Jaso. I also think he's underrated. He's shown good batting ability all through his minor league career. His health and D are the main questions, but many seem to feel he's made enough progress to stay behind the plate. I also believe Navarro will break out this year, so even if Jaso made the defense progress many believe he has, and if his offense remains strong, I think he'll be blocked at the major league level. Saying that, however, I do think he's underrated.
Poster formerly known as artie
by beastball on Mar 19, 2008 8:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
crap
i made the rec list with garbage! i really meant to write more about the guys and what i liked or didn't like about them and why i ranked them where i did, but i was really tired and lazy last night. maybe i'll edit some stuff in later on this afternoon.
by wily mo on Mar 19, 2008 1:44 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Landon Powell doesn't even get a sniff?
Come on, the guy had like a .900 OPS last year (and threw out 50% of basestealers) before he blew out his ACL.
He's an injury risk for sure, but his upside is still huge.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Mar 19, 2008 8:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
landon powell
he's the new jeremy brown, apparently.
i think he's an injury risk, yes. he's also a small-sample-size risk. he's also an eat-himself-out-of-baseball(-again) risk.
having said all that, i can't imagine making a list of the top 30 catching prospects and leaving him off of it. but that's because i've never heard of more than about 15 catching prospects.
by jpahk on Mar 19, 2008 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm over him.
with that second major knee injury, i've pretty well chucked powell into the "not gonna happen" basket. it's of course still possible he'll come back, but i think all of these guys have better chances at this point, even the ones i've barely heard of.
by wily mo on Mar 20, 2008 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why?
I mean, that's a bit extreme. Without the injuries he's right at the top of this list: terrific offensive numbers, very good arm, and apparently deft behind the plate. now 2 ACLs is nothing to sniff at, so obviously he's not at the top of the list. Nonetheless, the potential is still there, he reported this year in tip top shape, and 'if' he's healthy he'll be at the top of the list again.
now...how to quantify that 'if' I don't know. but the idea that he's not more likely to make it than...oh, I don't know, Wilson Ramos....strikes me as overly negative but arguable. To have him behind 30 guys is waaay extreme. 2/3 of them will hardly sniff the major leagues whereas Powell is in AAA and will probably at least be in the majors this year, and if healthy could be an impact player.
overall, by the way, i enjoy this ...looking forward to more around the capes....
by scooter on Mar 22, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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