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OT: DrB's First Fantasy Draft-Followup

Well, I had my first fantasy draft last night.  Some of you may remember my earlier plea for help:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2008/3/9/194922/4033

I want to thank everybody for the great advice.  Want to see what I did with it?  OK, I'll tell you anyway!  I drew the #5 draft slot.  I actually preferred a middle spot in a snake draft, although in retrospect, #3 might have been better.  More on that later......

Anyway, you already know about the lousy hand I was dealt in the keeper portion, so I won't bore you with all that again.  Here's my draft list with comments:

  1.  Magglio Ordonez-I figured Miggy Cabrera and probably Grady Sizemore would be gone.  I was hoping for Beej Upton, but he went at #3.  Ordonez was my second choice with Carlos Lee my third.  Can't really complain here.
  2.  Robinson Cano-  Upton, Cano and Brian Roberts were the class of a very thin 2B group.  Upton and Roberts were gone.  As a .300/20 HR/90/90 guy, Cano wouldn't be bad as an OF.  Plus, he still seems to be on the upward part of his career trajectory.  I had targeted Cano here and grabbed him.
  3.  Ryan Zimmerman-  This may have been a reach, but I didn't think there was a pitcher worth taking this high and the dropoff to the next tier of 3B was pretty steep.  Zim is still young, on an upward trajectory, and I think the new ballpark will help him.
  4.  Javier Vasquez-  I was going to take  Joe Mauer here, but momentarily lost track of my draft board, got disoriented and ended up having to make a hurried, last second pick.  Vasquez was on my short list for first pitcher to take and wouldn't have been available in round 5.
  5.  Brian McCann-  Catching was very thin at the top.  The 3 worth considering were Martin, Mauer, McCann and possibly Salty.  Marting and Mauer were gone.  I wanted Mauer, but McCann might turn out to be a better choice?
  6.  Matt Cain-  A run on pitchers had started.  Tim LIncecum was gone.  I had vowed to stay away from Giants pitchers because I don't think they will get very many wins.  I had a few decent choices here, but caved in and couldn't pass on my homeboy.
  7.  Brad Hawpe-  I was targeting Delmon Young, Corey Hart and Hunter Pence here.  There had been a run on young OF's and they were all gone.  Hawpe was the fallback guy on my draft board.  He probably has less upside, but could be the best of that bunch this year.
  8.  Yovani Gallardo-  I was a bit surprised Gallardo fell this far.  He may start the season on the DL, but the upside is so great, I'm happy to stash him for  a couple of weeks.
  9.  Chad Billingsley-  There are several Dodger fans in my league.  I thought Billz was their best pitcher in the second half last season.  I was shocked that he was still on the board.  One of my candidates for  a huge breakout.
  10.  Matt Garza-  I was going to take a closer here and they were dropping like flies, but I was surprised Garza fell this far and couldn't pass.
  11.  BJ Ryan-  I might have screwed up on the closers, but I just couldn't stop myself from loading up on young, high ceiling starters.  Ryan is coming off TJ and has to compete with Accardo for the closer role in Toronto, but from everything I've read, he will be the closer there if healthy.  If not, well, I'm probably not going to win many H2H's in saves anyway.
  12.  Brian Wilson- Another Giants homeboy.  Wilson looks like he's definitely winning the closer's job in ST.  He as the stuff to be lights out if he can control the strike zone.  He was on my target list as a late closer pick, so this one worked out.
  13.  Kevin Gregg- Not a fan, but he did get something like 47 saves with good peripherals last year.  I needed another closer and he was the only one left!  Probably at least as good a bet as Borowski or Chad Cordero who went earlier.
  14.  Billy Butler-  This is my favorite pick of my draft.  I had him targeted from the beginning, and I guessed right.  My friend told me he would have taken him in this round if I hadn't.
  15.  Justin Upton-  Strictly an upside pick here, but what an upside!  Milledge and Maybin were taken earlier.  I probably would have taken Upton even if they were still available.  Worst case scenario, I stash him on the bench and decide whether to make him a keeper in the offseason.
  16.  Yunel Escobar-  I thought I needed a multiple position IF as one of my utility guys.  Escobar is picking up where he left off last year in spring training and even showing some HR power.  I figure he's my SS if Tejada shrivels up from steroid withdrawl.
  17.  Ian Kennedy- Now we're getting to the bench players.   I guess I have a fetish for young SP's.  Will Kennedy beat out Mussina for the Yanks rotation?  Does anyone else think he just might put up better numbers than Hughes or Chamberalain?
  18.  JR Towles-  I was originally planning to let catcher slide and go for one of Soto, Towles or Suzuki late.  I ended up taking McCann early, but I like Towles upside and don't mind stashing him on the bench.  BTW, Soto was picked a few slots earlier.
  19.  Chase Headley-  I guess he's not a lock to make the Padres 25 man roster, but he's absolutely tearing up the Cactus League and they are going to have to make room for him, right?  Right?
  20.  Ubaldo Jimenez-  The love affair with young starters continues.  With all the closers taken, I figure I can pick up non-closer relievers off the scrap heap any day.
  21.  Kevin Correia-  I was determined to take Correia somewhere.  I thought he would be my #5 starter, but here he is at the end of my bench!  After Jonathan Sanchez' start yesterday,  Sanchez might have been a better pick here.
So here's my final roster, including the players I inherited:

C    Brian McCann
1B  Carlos Pena
2B  Robinson Cano
3B  Ryan Zimmerman
SS   Miguel Tejada
OF  Magglio Ordonez
OF  Brad Hawpe
OF  Aaron Rowand
IF   Billy Butler
UT Justin Upton
UT Yunel Escobar
SP  Javier Vasquez
SP  Matt Cain
SP  Chad Billingsley
SP  Yovani Gallardo
SP  Matt Garza
RP  BJ Ryan
RP  Brian Wilson
RP  Kevin Gregg
P    Orlando Hernandez
P    Hideki Okajima
B    JR Towles
B    Chase Headley
B    Ian Kennedy
B    Ubaldo Jimenez
B    Kevin Correia

So how do you think Dr B did in his first draft?  I was starting from a pretty big deficit from the keepers I inherited.  I figured I have no chance this year anyway.  My goal was to take young players with upside and try to improve my keeper list for next year.  

Poll
What Grade Would You Give Dr B In His First Fantasy Draft?
B
25 votes
C
15 votes
D
4 votes
F
3 votes
A
15 votes

62 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 22 comments

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Comments

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Too much pitching?
DrB,

It's hard to rate your draft since we don't really know who was available.  It seems like many of the normal top picks must have been retained by other teams.  I would have tried to focus a bit more on getting some bats, but you had a plan and executed well.  Could be that the bats were overvalued and you took advantage.  To pick up Cain, Gallardo, Garza and Billingsley is a nice haul.

Good luck,

Laughlin

by laughlin on Mar 15, 2008 9:09 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Bats vs Pitching
I didn't want to bore everybody by putting up the full list of keepers,  but pretty much all the true studs were not available from the start:  ARod/Pujols/Fielder/etc.  Miggy Cabrera was the only one from the true top tier of hitters who was on the board at the beginning of the draft and he was taken #2.

As for later on, the only hitters I might have waited too long on were Delmon Young, Corey Hart and Hunter Pence, but I like Hawpe a lot in that bunch.

I may also regret not taking a closer sooner, but with a little luck, that will work out too.

All in all, about 85% of the draft went as I had designed so if it totally sucks, it's with mostly the players I wanted.

Again, my main goal for this year is to upgrade my keeper list for next year.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 15, 2008 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

#2?
I have to ask... who was taken ahead of M-Cab?!  

by BobbyMac on Mar 15, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Grady Sizemore
(Shrugs).

Dude was obviously chasing SB's throughout the draft.  He might have already had ARod too.  I'll have to check.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 15, 2008 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not ARod
He already had David Wright.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 15, 2008 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

pretty good.
i think you did pretty well.  in this situation your first priority had to be roping in a few guys who could make good future keepers, and you did that with jupton, butler, cano, mccann, gallardo, cain, billingsley, etc.  this is a lot like i draft, so i give it an A.

by wily mo on Mar 15, 2008 9:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks Wily Mo
I respect your opinion and know you don't hesitate to give it.  That's a huge compliment.

I would probably give myself a B for perhaps being too much in love with SP's and not getting enough at closer.  I'm really not sure I could have done a whole lot better with different hitters though.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 15, 2008 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

closers are stupid
don't worry about that.  if you're not going to win this year, which you're probably not, they're a waste of time anyway.  that's part of what i meant about this is how i'd draft, i'm sort of notorious for ignoring closers to the extent possible.  

i mean in a simple 5x5 12-team mixed redraft league where you actually do need to have saves i'll normally grab a few closers in rounds 7-10, just because the only other players that get drafted there are the boring off-brand veterans like jason bay and carlos delgado that i wasn't going to draft anyway.  if i made my hitter picks there i'd just be taking guys like hermida and milledge and butler that i could get just as easily a couple rounds later anyway, so might as well lay in some safe closers.  

but in a rebuilding situation, screw the bullpen.  you can put that together later when you've got your core built up.

by wily mo on Mar 15, 2008 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hermida
Speaking of Hermida, I don't think he was taken at all.  I'll have to double check, but I'm pretty sure I didn't see his name.  He might be someone to dump Rowand for?  I guess I just don't see Rowand coming close to last year's performance playing in all those games in AT&T, Dodger Stadium and Petco to say nothing of his up and down career path.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 15, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ha
yeah - if hermida's really there, get on that.  i'd much rather have him than rowand.  

to give you an idea - when i say this is similar to what i'd do - this is what i did in my only redraft league so far this year.  it's a 16-team league with sort of crazy categories (15x15, featuring some absurd things like errors and outfield assists), so i just basically drafted on who i thought the best baseball players were.  oh yeah, and 5 UTIL slots.  but you get the idea.  note the similarities: almost all young/upside players, no relief pitchers, etc.


  1.     (7)     Miguel Cabrera
  2.     (26)     B.J. Upton
  3.     (39)     Manny Ramírez
  4.     (58)     Corey Hart
  5.     (71)     Carlos Peña
  6.     (90)     Tim Lincecum
  7.     (103)     Rickie Weeks
  8.     (122)     Todd Helton
  9.     (135)     Josh Hamilton
  10.     (154)     Chad Billingsley
  11.     (167)     Dustin McGowan
  12.     (186)     Zack Greinke
  13.     (199)     Jeremy Hermida
  14.     (218)     Jon Lester
  15.     (231)     Randy Johnson
  16.     (250)     Julio Lugo
  17.     (263)     Billy Butler
  18.     (282)     J.D. Drew
  19.     (295)     Jason Kubel
  20.     (314)     J.R. Towles
  21.     (327)     Daric Barton
  22.     (346)     Milton Bradley
  23.     (359)     Dioner Navarro
  24.     (378)     Micah Owings
  25.     (391)     Elijah Dukes
  26.     (410)     Eugenio Velez
  27.     (423)     Kevin Correia
  28.     (442)     Manny Parra

by wily mo on Mar 16, 2008 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I Get That
Yeah, that looks  a lot like the kinds of players I targeted.  Of course, you don't get everone you target, but the basic idea is there and an amazing number of names are actually the same.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 16, 2008 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i gave you an A...
based simply on your draft from Cain down.  as someone else said, it's hard to know who was available and who wasn't.  i didn't know it was a keeper at first, and that it wasn't an inaugural draft, so i was wondering about the maggs pick.

but for upside,  you've filled in the team nicely.  i like the eventual 1-2-3-4 of cain, gallardo, billingsley, and garza (no particular order).  i really like the get of justin upton as late as you did, and also think billy butler was a steal.  chase headley was another nice grab.

i don't know who you're drafting against, but i do believe that most people on this forum put out there against your everyday baseball fantasy player will tear it up in the 2-3 years after the team is put together.  you did very nicely here.

good luck

http://www.simdynasty.com/index.jsp?refer=mychiefs58

by huckleberry on Mar 15, 2008 11:46 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice draft for sure
I really like the way this turned out for you.  Instead of echoing some of the comments above that were absolutely on target, I want to point out a couple of things that I look for drafting pitchers that you either planned to do, or did accidentally.

I look for guys who can post a K/9 of 7 or more, and bring home a WHIP of 1.40 or less.  If you fill a staff with these type guys, you can compete on the pitching side without fail.  Basically all your SP's fit that mold, with a couple of big time K guys in Vazquez(very underrated in fantasy I think) and potentially Billz and Gallardo.  You've got some guys who walk a few batters(Cain, Billz, Jimenez) but all they have good enough stuff to overcome that and have posted pretty solid hit rates, so that the WHIP doesn't get out of control.

I do think that one more hitter might have been nice to have, especially with the chance that Headley starts out in the minors, but if Gallardo is on the DL to start the year, you can pickup a hitter as a replacement early on and that problem becomes mitigated at that point.

Overall, this is an A draft in my eyes, the worst part will be deciding who to keep for next year with all that great young talent.  Good luck this year.

"There are no steroids in baseball. Just players Chuck Norris has breathed on."-chucknorrisfacts.com

by gatling on Mar 15, 2008 1:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

K's and WHIP's
I didn't go strictly by K's and WHIP's, but I was conscious of them.  I mostly wanted to get a collection of young, strong, durable,  hard-throwing pitchers with upside and hope a couple will have breakout years and upgrade my keeper list for next year.  I agree that it's going to be gut wrenching to send all but 5 of these kids back into the draft next year.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 15, 2008 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A
I really like all your picks, relative to draft position, except #10, #17 and #18.  And I can see grabbing a Yankee pitcher being a good thing, so it's hard to argue too much with Kennedy.  I don't believe Towles will be an offensive force, and would rather have had someone like Iannetta - who I think will hit, but may fall in drafts due to PT issues.  That said, if you need to start 2 catchers, and the good starters were gone, taking a high-PT guy makes some sense.

Closers:

  • I don't think that much of Brian Wilson, but I'm sure you know him better than most anyone, and if you like him, I will move him up on my draft lists for tomorrow and next week, actually. :)  
  • I like Gregg a bit more than you do.  I could see some worries about some of the other good arms unseating him, but he's always had decent K/IP and K/BB ratios, and he's cheap (so the Fish won't be trying to trade him every week to become lost in some contender's pen).  
  • Taking Ryan seems a fine "gambit".  Many of the best closers at season's end aren't the "Closer" in April, and it's just a matter of watching the games to see who's on deck to get a job.  Having numerous closers is pretty important for a format like this.
Starters:
  • Young SP will break your heart.  That's what they always say about roto teams.  But when your "heart" is as weak as yours started out being, why not take emergency measures?  In H2H, you definitely want many decent SP options so you can choose guys with 2 starts and feel comfortable about them.
  • I honestly have no idea why you think Kennedy will be either a keeper in this format (3/team), or a viable roto option this year.  But then again, if you review all the draft picks made in your league after about round 12 (or so) at the end of the year, you will find that a majority of them are cut (at least once) during the season anyway.  If I had him, I'd be hoping for a good start or 2 from him, and then be on the trade wires trying to move him.
  • Tampa Bay doesn't have much in the way of offense, and I cannot see Garza having a great ERA or WHIP this year.  I guess he has an outside chance of becoming a "keeper" by end-of-year, but I cannot see it... you already have some awesome keeper candidates aside from him in Upton, Butler, Cain, Billz, Cano, McCann (in no particular order).  Garza would have been a fine pick 4-5 rounds later, and due to perceptions, may have lasted even longer than that.  The team's improved defense this year will prevent this pick from really smelling.
  • Vazquez is pretty under-appreciated.  White Sox should actually score some runs this year, and the bad outfield defense shouldn't hurt Javy too much.
Positions:
  • Interesting decision to punt SB's.  I guess if you're going to try to win with lesser talent, it's better to give yourself some chance in the other categories than to be balanced and inferior across the board.
  • I see Upton as being another Dave Winfield, in that I think he can choose whether to hit for more average or more power, and be great either way.  With your modest current-year team, he was an outstanding pick that late.
  • Before the M-Cab trade, Butler was on my short list of AL guys who could possibly produce the most offense over the next decade.  M-Cab's better, but I do think Butler's a viable candidate for 2nd-best.  And he doesn't derive a lot of his offensive value from walks, which makes him a fantastic roto guy.
  • Ordonez should be better than C-Lee, due to the differences in offenses if nothing else.
  • Yunel's exactly the sort of player who isn't worth a lot in roto, but he's also exactly the sort of "tofu" player who can play multiple positions and not hurt you, and that's worth a lot.
If you hadn't started with so little offensive firepower, you'd have been able to contend with this crew, though I do think you'd have to out-effort some of the better teams.  You could still potentially navigate this team into the money, but it might take striking gold such as finding this year's version of Carlos Pena in April.

by BobbyMac on Mar 15, 2008 1:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Solid, but
Your team has a lot of risk for a 10-team mixed league. I like the young guys long term, but a lot of them won't pan out this year. You look like you have an eye on 2009, which maybe was what you were going for.

by M Gianella on Mar 15, 2008 11:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

2009
Given the poor keeper contingent I was saddled with, I don't think I really have a chance this year.  I am aware the risk of these players, but my main goal is to upgrade my keeper list for next year.

I actually don't think the hitting is all that risky.  Upton is the riskiest, but I can stash him on the bench if I have to.    The pitching is much riskier, but I'm hoping for big seasons out of a couple of them.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 15, 2008 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good Job
Nice job DrB, I gave you an A.  Obviously, you were going to have some weaknesses due to the keepers.  I think you are fine with the closers.  Somewhere between 40-50% of saves have come off the waiver wire in 10 team leagues over the last few years, so, as long as you are vigilant, you should be ok when one of yours falters.  As for dropping Rowand for Hermida, I wouldn't do that.  I love Hermida, and think Rowand will struggle to approach his number for last year, but I would drop a bench player before dropping Rowand (or see what you could get in trade).  Also, as a Giants fan, keep an eye on Velez.  He could be a nice waiver pickup if he gets PT, and really help your team in SBs while possibly picking up multiple position eligibility.

by killa on Mar 16, 2008 8:24 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Velez
Okay, I've got to ask you Giants fans.  What do you make of Velez as a fantasy keeper play this year?  I see Omar and Durham in their final years as Giants, and I'm not sure of Aurilia's contract situation.  I'm figuring that even if Frandsen takes over at 2B, Velez could start at SS or 3B in 2009.  The comparison to Chone Figgins is a good one, especially if Velez ends up at 3B, but in actuality he could end up anywhere if he puts up a .280 average in the big leagues.  In a fantasy keeper league where infield-driven SB are coveted, is Velez a guy to stow away as a cheap long-term keeper?

by TigerFanInCleveland on Mar 16, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Risky
I guess it depends on how much room you have.  I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on him, but the upside is there.  I would say Velez has probably moved ahead of Frandsen on the Giants internal depth chart at this point.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 16, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

with H2H
especially low owner H2H leagues it has always seemed to me best to focus on guys that are exceptional at some category(ies) vs across the board producers (better year long points or roto leagues).  That is unless you get just the absolute right combination of across the board guys.

That being said, I think you did a good job putting together a nice team, especially considering what you were saddled with keeper wise.  Given the 5 keeper limit, my take would be to see how things go early and if you can pick up a fill-in closer or two after the normal attrition.  Do that and can probably even compete for a playoff run (where anything can happen).  

Otherwise, if you don't snag the right guys on the waiver wire, I would look to consolidate as much talent as you could to core keepers.  You have at least 10, probably 12 guys that could legitimately be considered for keepers if you trade some for better talent.  

You probably realize it, but since you indicate your new to fantasy (though appear well researched).  I'd look to move closers, a pitcher or too and a couple of the young studs for a major talent (or 2).  If you fall out by mid-season to 3/4 season, even a five to one trade for someone making a run helps you out in the long run.  It will take just the right trading partner team make up probably, but getting Fielder, Reyes, Hanley...even Rollins type guys for four to five guys that put the partner over the top could work out.  He'll/she'll have to win the trade big time, but chances are you'll get a shot at redrafting some/most of them oranyway.

Anyway, nice draft...good luck.

by roaddog on Mar 16, 2008 4:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

H2H
I went and added up last year's stats for my 8 position starters and compared them to last year's league champ.  I came out ahead in 3 of 5 offensive categories.  In this league, it doesn't matter if you win your H2H by 6-4 or 10-0.  I decided early on to punt steals and concentrate on run producers.  I also decided not to concede any position, so I went for thin positions like 2B and C early.  I made sure I had at least 3 targeted players for each player position and each drafting level.  I also had late round contingencies in case I missed my targets.  I ended up getting virtually 100% of my targets even down into the utility players.

I figure I'm sitting pretty good with my position starters despite starting out in a hole.  Now all I need is for my SPs to come through and for Butler and Upton to breakout like I think they might and I think I could actually get to the playoffs this year.

One other thing.  I made a conscious decision to punt saves, although the run on closers was worse than I anticipated.  Even so. I think I have an outside chance of being competetive there too.

As for SP's, we already have word that John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar and Scott Kazmir are going to start the season quite late.  Those were all highly drafted guys.  So my SP strategy is already not looking too bad.

We'll see.  I could be in denial here, but I don't think I will embarrass myself.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 16, 2008 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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