OT: DrB's First Fantasy Draft-Followup
Well, I had my first fantasy draft last night. Some of you may remember my earlier plea for help:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2008/3/9/194922/4033
I want to thank everybody for the great advice. Want to see what I did with it? OK, I'll tell you anyway! I drew the #5 draft slot. I actually preferred a middle spot in a snake draft, although in retrospect, #3 might have been better. More on that later......
Anyway, you already know about the lousy hand I was dealt in the keeper portion, so I won't bore you with all that again. Here's my draft list with comments:
- Magglio Ordonez-I figured Miggy Cabrera and probably Grady Sizemore would be gone. I was hoping for Beej Upton, but he went at #3. Ordonez was my second choice with Carlos Lee my third. Can't really complain here.
- Robinson Cano- Upton, Cano and Brian Roberts were the class of a very thin 2B group. Upton and Roberts were gone. As a .300/20 HR/90/90 guy, Cano wouldn't be bad as an OF. Plus, he still seems to be on the upward part of his career trajectory. I had targeted Cano here and grabbed him.
- Ryan Zimmerman- This may have been a reach, but I didn't think there was a pitcher worth taking this high and the dropoff to the next tier of 3B was pretty steep. Zim is still young, on an upward trajectory, and I think the new ballpark will help him.
- Javier Vasquez- I was going to take Joe Mauer here, but momentarily lost track of my draft board, got disoriented and ended up having to make a hurried, last second pick. Vasquez was on my short list for first pitcher to take and wouldn't have been available in round 5.
- Brian McCann- Catching was very thin at the top. The 3 worth considering were Martin, Mauer, McCann and possibly Salty. Marting and Mauer were gone. I wanted Mauer, but McCann might turn out to be a better choice?
- Matt Cain- A run on pitchers had started. Tim LIncecum was gone. I had vowed to stay away from Giants pitchers because I don't think they will get very many wins. I had a few decent choices here, but caved in and couldn't pass on my homeboy.
- Brad Hawpe- I was targeting Delmon Young, Corey Hart and Hunter Pence here. There had been a run on young OF's and they were all gone. Hawpe was the fallback guy on my draft board. He probably has less upside, but could be the best of that bunch this year.
- Yovani Gallardo- I was a bit surprised Gallardo fell this far. He may start the season on the DL, but the upside is so great, I'm happy to stash him for a couple of weeks.
- Chad Billingsley- There are several Dodger fans in my league. I thought Billz was their best pitcher in the second half last season. I was shocked that he was still on the board. One of my candidates for a huge breakout.
- Matt Garza- I was going to take a closer here and they were dropping like flies, but I was surprised Garza fell this far and couldn't pass.
- BJ Ryan- I might have screwed up on the closers, but I just couldn't stop myself from loading up on young, high ceiling starters. Ryan is coming off TJ and has to compete with Accardo for the closer role in Toronto, but from everything I've read, he will be the closer there if healthy. If not, well, I'm probably not going to win many H2H's in saves anyway.
- Brian Wilson- Another Giants homeboy. Wilson looks like he's definitely winning the closer's job in ST. He as the stuff to be lights out if he can control the strike zone. He was on my target list as a late closer pick, so this one worked out.
- Kevin Gregg- Not a fan, but he did get something like 47 saves with good peripherals last year. I needed another closer and he was the only one left! Probably at least as good a bet as Borowski or Chad Cordero who went earlier.
- Billy Butler- This is my favorite pick of my draft. I had him targeted from the beginning, and I guessed right. My friend told me he would have taken him in this round if I hadn't.
- Justin Upton- Strictly an upside pick here, but what an upside! Milledge and Maybin were taken earlier. I probably would have taken Upton even if they were still available. Worst case scenario, I stash him on the bench and decide whether to make him a keeper in the offseason.
- Yunel Escobar- I thought I needed a multiple position IF as one of my utility guys. Escobar is picking up where he left off last year in spring training and even showing some HR power. I figure he's my SS if Tejada shrivels up from steroid withdrawl.
- Ian Kennedy- Now we're getting to the bench players. I guess I have a fetish for young SP's. Will Kennedy beat out Mussina for the Yanks rotation? Does anyone else think he just might put up better numbers than Hughes or Chamberalain?
- JR Towles- I was originally planning to let catcher slide and go for one of Soto, Towles or Suzuki late. I ended up taking McCann early, but I like Towles upside and don't mind stashing him on the bench. BTW, Soto was picked a few slots earlier.
- Chase Headley- I guess he's not a lock to make the Padres 25 man roster, but he's absolutely tearing up the Cactus League and they are going to have to make room for him, right? Right?
- Ubaldo Jimenez- The love affair with young starters continues. With all the closers taken, I figure I can pick up non-closer relievers off the scrap heap any day.
- Kevin Correia- I was determined to take Correia somewhere. I thought he would be my #5 starter, but here he is at the end of my bench! After Jonathan Sanchez' start yesterday, Sanchez might have been a better pick here.
C Brian McCann
1B Carlos Pena
2B Robinson Cano
3B Ryan Zimmerman
SS Miguel Tejada
OF Magglio Ordonez
OF Brad Hawpe
OF Aaron Rowand
IF Billy Butler
UT Justin Upton
UT Yunel Escobar
SP Javier Vasquez
SP Matt Cain
SP Chad Billingsley
SP Yovani Gallardo
SP Matt Garza
RP BJ Ryan
RP Brian Wilson
RP Kevin Gregg
P Orlando Hernandez
P Hideki Okajima
B JR Towles
B Chase Headley
B Ian Kennedy
B Ubaldo Jimenez
B Kevin Correia
So how do you think Dr B did in his first draft? I was starting from a pretty big deficit from the keepers I inherited. I figured I have no chance this year anyway. My goal was to take young players with upside and try to improve my keeper list for next year.
0 recs |
22 comments
Comments
Too much pitching?
It's hard to rate your draft since we don't really know who was available. It seems like many of the normal top picks must have been retained by other teams. I would have tried to focus a bit more on getting some bats, but you had a plan and executed well. Could be that the bats were overvalued and you took advantage. To pick up Cain, Gallardo, Garza and Billingsley is a nice haul.
Good luck,
Laughlin
by laughlin on Mar 15, 2008 9:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bats vs Pitching
As for later on, the only hitters I might have waited too long on were Delmon Young, Corey Hart and Hunter Pence, but I like Hawpe a lot in that bunch.
I may also regret not taking a closer sooner, but with a little luck, that will work out too.
All in all, about 85% of the draft went as I had designed so if it totally sucks, it's with mostly the players I wanted.
Again, my main goal for this year is to upgrade my keeper list for next year.
by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 15, 2008 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
#2?
by BobbyMac on Mar 15, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Grady Sizemore
Dude was obviously chasing SB's throughout the draft. He might have already had ARod too. I'll have to check.
by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 15, 2008 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not ARod
by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 15, 2008 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pretty good.
by wily mo on Mar 15, 2008 9:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Wily Mo
I would probably give myself a B for perhaps being too much in love with SP's and not getting enough at closer. I'm really not sure I could have done a whole lot better with different hitters though.
by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 15, 2008 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
closers are stupid
i mean in a simple 5x5 12-team mixed redraft league where you actually do need to have saves i'll normally grab a few closers in rounds 7-10, just because the only other players that get drafted there are the boring off-brand veterans like jason bay and carlos delgado that i wasn't going to draft anyway. if i made my hitter picks there i'd just be taking guys like hermida and milledge and butler that i could get just as easily a couple rounds later anyway, so might as well lay in some safe closers.
but in a rebuilding situation, screw the bullpen. you can put that together later when you've got your core built up.
by wily mo on Mar 15, 2008 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hermida
by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 15, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ha
to give you an idea - when i say this is similar to what i'd do - this is what i did in my only redraft league so far this year. it's a 16-team league with sort of crazy categories (15x15, featuring some absurd things like errors and outfield assists), so i just basically drafted on who i thought the best baseball players were. oh yeah, and 5 UTIL slots. but you get the idea. note the similarities: almost all young/upside players, no relief pitchers, etc.
- (7) Miguel Cabrera
- (26) B.J. Upton
- (39) Manny Ramírez
- (58) Corey Hart
- (71) Carlos Peña
- (90) Tim Lincecum
- (103) Rickie Weeks
- (122) Todd Helton
- (135) Josh Hamilton
- (154) Chad Billingsley
- (167) Dustin McGowan
- (186) Zack Greinke
- (199) Jeremy Hermida
- (218) Jon Lester
- (231) Randy Johnson
- (250) Julio Lugo
- (263) Billy Butler
- (282) J.D. Drew
- (295) Jason Kubel
- (314) J.R. Towles
- (327) Daric Barton
- (346) Milton Bradley
- (359) Dioner Navarro
- (378) Micah Owings
- (391) Elijah Dukes
- (410) Eugenio Velez
- (423) Kevin Correia
- (442) Manny Parra
by wily mo on Mar 16, 2008 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Get That
by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 16, 2008 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i gave you an A...
but for upside, you've filled in the team nicely. i like the eventual 1-2-3-4 of cain, gallardo, billingsley, and garza (no particular order). i really like the get of justin upton as late as you did, and also think billy butler was a steal. chase headley was another nice grab.
i don't know who you're drafting against, but i do believe that most people on this forum put out there against your everyday baseball fantasy player will tear it up in the 2-3 years after the team is put together. you did very nicely here.
good luck
by huckleberry on Mar 15, 2008 11:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice draft for sure
I look for guys who can post a K/9 of 7 or more, and bring home a WHIP of 1.40 or less. If you fill a staff with these type guys, you can compete on the pitching side without fail. Basically all your SP's fit that mold, with a couple of big time K guys in Vazquez(very underrated in fantasy I think) and potentially Billz and Gallardo. You've got some guys who walk a few batters(Cain, Billz, Jimenez) but all they have good enough stuff to overcome that and have posted pretty solid hit rates, so that the WHIP doesn't get out of control.
I do think that one more hitter might have been nice to have, especially with the chance that Headley starts out in the minors, but if Gallardo is on the DL to start the year, you can pickup a hitter as a replacement early on and that problem becomes mitigated at that point.
Overall, this is an A draft in my eyes, the worst part will be deciding who to keep for next year with all that great young talent. Good luck this year.
by gatling on Mar 15, 2008 1:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
K's and WHIP's
by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 15, 2008 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A
Closers:
- I don't think that much of Brian Wilson, but I'm sure you know him better than most anyone, and if you like him, I will move him up on my draft lists for tomorrow and next week, actually. :)
- I like Gregg a bit more than you do. I could see some worries about some of the other good arms unseating him, but he's always had decent K/IP and K/BB ratios, and he's cheap (so the Fish won't be trying to trade him every week to become lost in some contender's pen).
- Taking Ryan seems a fine "gambit". Many of the best closers at season's end aren't the "Closer" in April, and it's just a matter of watching the games to see who's on deck to get a job. Having numerous closers is pretty important for a format like this.
- Young SP will break your heart. That's what they always say about roto teams. But when your "heart" is as weak as yours started out being, why not take emergency measures? In H2H, you definitely want many decent SP options so you can choose guys with 2 starts and feel comfortable about them.
- I honestly have no idea why you think Kennedy will be either a keeper in this format (3/team), or a viable roto option this year. But then again, if you review all the draft picks made in your league after about round 12 (or so) at the end of the year, you will find that a majority of them are cut (at least once) during the season anyway. If I had him, I'd be hoping for a good start or 2 from him, and then be on the trade wires trying to move him.
- Tampa Bay doesn't have much in the way of offense, and I cannot see Garza having a great ERA or WHIP this year. I guess he has an outside chance of becoming a "keeper" by end-of-year, but I cannot see it... you already have some awesome keeper candidates aside from him in Upton, Butler, Cain, Billz, Cano, McCann (in no particular order). Garza would have been a fine pick 4-5 rounds later, and due to perceptions, may have lasted even longer than that. The team's improved defense this year will prevent this pick from really smelling.
- Vazquez is pretty under-appreciated. White Sox should actually score some runs this year, and the bad outfield defense shouldn't hurt Javy too much.
- Interesting decision to punt SB's. I guess if you're going to try to win with lesser talent, it's better to give yourself some chance in the other categories than to be balanced and inferior across the board.
- I see Upton as being another Dave Winfield, in that I think he can choose whether to hit for more average or more power, and be great either way. With your modest current-year team, he was an outstanding pick that late.
- Before the M-Cab trade, Butler was on my short list of AL guys who could possibly produce the most offense over the next decade. M-Cab's better, but I do think Butler's a viable candidate for 2nd-best. And he doesn't derive a lot of his offensive value from walks, which makes him a fantastic roto guy.
- Ordonez should be better than C-Lee, due to the differences in offenses if nothing else.
- Yunel's exactly the sort of player who isn't worth a lot in roto, but he's also exactly the sort of "tofu" player who can play multiple positions and not hurt you, and that's worth a lot.
by BobbyMac on Mar 15, 2008 1:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Solid, but
by M Gianella on Mar 15, 2008 11:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
2009
I actually don't think the hitting is all that risky. Upton is the riskiest, but I can stash him on the bench if I have to. The pitching is much riskier, but I'm hoping for big seasons out of a couple of them.
by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 15, 2008 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good Job
by killa on Mar 16, 2008 8:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Velez
by TigerFanInCleveland on Mar 16, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Risky
by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 16, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
with H2H
That being said, I think you did a good job putting together a nice team, especially considering what you were saddled with keeper wise. Given the 5 keeper limit, my take would be to see how things go early and if you can pick up a fill-in closer or two after the normal attrition. Do that and can probably even compete for a playoff run (where anything can happen).
Otherwise, if you don't snag the right guys on the waiver wire, I would look to consolidate as much talent as you could to core keepers. You have at least 10, probably 12 guys that could legitimately be considered for keepers if you trade some for better talent.
You probably realize it, but since you indicate your new to fantasy (though appear well researched). I'd look to move closers, a pitcher or too and a couple of the young studs for a major talent (or 2). If you fall out by mid-season to 3/4 season, even a five to one trade for someone making a run helps you out in the long run. It will take just the right trading partner team make up probably, but getting Fielder, Reyes, Hanley...even Rollins type guys for four to five guys that put the partner over the top could work out. He'll/she'll have to win the trade big time, but chances are you'll get a shot at redrafting some/most of them oranyway.
Anyway, nice draft...good luck.
by roaddog on Mar 16, 2008 4:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
H2H
I figure I'm sitting pretty good with my position starters despite starting out in a hole. Now all I need is for my SPs to come through and for Butler and Upton to breakout like I think they might and I think I could actually get to the playoffs this year.
One other thing. I made a conscious decision to punt saves, although the run on closers was worse than I anticipated. Even so. I think I have an outside chance of being competetive there too.
As for SP's, we already have word that John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar and Scott Kazmir are going to start the season quite late. Those were all highly drafted guys. So my SP strategy is already not looking too bad.
We'll see. I could be in denial here, but I don't think I will embarrass myself.
by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 16, 2008 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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