Rumored Brian Roberts deal

by cowboy4eva on Mar 14, 2008 10:56 AM EDT Comment 18 comments

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/842384,CST-SPT-brian14.article

Sources confirmed Thursday that the Cubs have a four-player offer for Roberts on the table that includes the addition of hard-throwing pitching prospect Jose Ceda. Infielder Ronny Cedeno and pitchers Sean Gallagher and Donnie Veal also are in the package.

Sounds very good for the O's IMO.

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Good?

I'm not so sure it's a good deal for the O's. Brian Roberts is a good player, probably one of the top 5 and surely top 10 second basemen in baseball. There's no guarantee that any of the players coming from the Cubs are ever going to amount to anything.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 14, 2008 11:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

but there is a guarantee

that all of them will cost less than Roberts this year and all of them will be more useful to the Orioles 5 years from now

by Galt on Mar 14, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

good for the O's

by my dixie wrecked on Mar 14, 2008 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guarantee?

Cost less? Yes. More useful in 5 years? Boy, I don't really think that's a sure thing at all. Roberts is 30 yo now, no reason he can't be productive at age 35. Once again, there is a significant probability that none of the players coming from the Cubs will ever amount to anything.

I know all about the principle of it being better to trade a player a year too soon than a year too late, but they may be trading Roberts 5 years too soon.

I'm not against trading Roberts per se, but if they can't get more for him than that, they might be better off to just keep him.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 14, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes it's a guarantee

Because under no circumstances will Roberts be on their team in five years.

by Galt on Mar 14, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not only that

Roberts has a better chance of being an Oriole in 3 years than a Cub.

by cowboy4eva on Mar 14, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

significant?

I have an issue with the comment "signficant probability that NONE will amount to anything"

Will any of them be as good as Roberts? likely no. However, I do think Cedano is underrated by many, and could be in line for a step up. Not so much as a break out, mind you, but be better than others think. I also like Gallagher to be a decent SP. Not someone to rely on in October, but a contributor.

That said, I am not disagreeing with your premise of trying to get more for Roberts, as that would seem to be possible compared to this package.

cheers!

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by dbimberg on Mar 14, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As a Cub fan

I don't like this deal. They already have DeRosa who is adequate at 2b. If they took Gallagher out of the deal I'd be ok with it. I think they're going to eventually need someone to replace one of the hacks that they have in the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation (I'm using Rich Hill as a #3 even though he'll be 4th in the rotation).

Roberts is a good 2b but who knows how Soriano will react to hitting someplace other than leadoff. It looks good on paper but just not sure it will translate on the field.

by bleacher bum on Mar 14, 2008 1:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Probably a good deal for the Os

It is true that Cedeno is a nothing and there is no guarantee that any of the players from the Cubs will be any good. But, for as dismal of a record the Cubs have for developing position players, they have a stellar record of developing pitchers and the Os would be getting three decent prospects out of the Cubs system. I don't think this deal is as bad for the Os as you think. Besides, how good are they going to be with Roberts anyway? My guess is that even with him they will struggle to finish 4th in the AL East so why not get some value for him while you can? I personally think the Cubs are overpaying a bit, but they can afford to. Roberts is a good player and a decent leadoff man, but he isn't THAT good.

by jldavid47 on Mar 14, 2008 2:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If Roberts is traded

I see him signing back with the O's after 09 anyway (if the team looks like its on the right track) considering how much he's put into the community. It's the reason I think even a lot of Roberts fans think trading him now is a good idea.

by Harold Baines on Mar 14, 2008 2:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

For the O's, it's a good deal

The chances of Roberts resigning seem slim. There's been rumors that he's intimated that he wants out, but won't make a wave about it. The chances of him regressing is also up there, based upon all the metrics. I'm also concerned with the flyball rate last year. That said, I'm sure that's been discussed plenty of times.

For the Cubs, this is a horrible deal. No other way around it. I've prepared myself for this, but it still is horrible.

First, need. 2nd base isn't a huge need for the Cubs. Acquiring a CF or a shortstop would make more sense (SS moreso than CF).

I am also of the belief that, even if we acquire Roberts, the best lineup for us to put forth has Roberts hitting in the 2-hole.

2nd, value. This is just ridiculous. Yes, each trade should be judged on its own merits due to different requirements and environment, but the fact that a Brian Roberts trade might net close value to an Erik Bedard deal? Awful.

This will probably lead to "You are crazy" posts, so I'll make my case.

Gallagher vs. Jones - Jones has better overall value. But if you are asked if you want a 2/3 type pitcher or a Torii Hunter-esque OF (and the defense right now isn't as good as Torii was), I think that's much closer than many would openly acknowledge. I mean, Gallagher runs a good low-mid 90's fastball in there with a good breaker and a developing change. He's had success all throughout the minors. He had control issues in AA, but that was understandable as he was still filling out. His metrics look solid, he doesn't give up the long ball, and his K rate hasn't died. So he hasn't looked good in a short call up last year and in the Spring. I'd make the case that Gallagher is the type of starter that can't move to the pen that easily (whereas a guy like Hart could).

Veal vs. Tillman - Both 2/3 profiles right now, maybe slightly higher upside for Tillman. That said, power lefties are rare. Yes, Veal had control issues and yes, despite improvement his secondary pitches still need work. But he was also in a higher level and pitched much better the 2nd half of last year.

Cedeno/Ceda vs. Mickolio/Butler/Sherrill - May depend on how much you love Butler. I'm not a huge fan there. But even that, a toolsy shortstop prospect with minor league success(granted, I've never been high on CEdeno, but he does have quality tools) isn't that easy to find, particularly in comparison to a minor league pen arm. Ceda had control issues ... as a starter. The sample size on his pen work is too small in all honesty, although promising. That said, with that upper 90's fastball and mid-80's slider, he has a potentially dominant pen arsenal.

Now, I'm not signing adding Brian Roberts doesn't upgrade the Cubs. It does. But is the cost of Roberts vs. DeRosa/prospects worth it? We are going to have holes at midseason barring a surprise. We're going to have to hope a lot of guys develop from A ball to offer trade chips, because right now, we don't have many useful chips at the AA/AAA levels (Samardzija/Colvin ... and maybe Angel Guzman, and none of the three have great value entering the year).

by toonsterwu on Mar 14, 2008 2:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, but you are crazy

Take a step back, and a take deep breath.

This is an absolutely absurd comparison.

Jones alone is probably worth more than all four of the players in the Cubs package.

Jones is just barely not eligible for prospect lists, but both BA and BP said they would rank him in their top 5 if he had 10 fewer big league at bats.

Tillman was ranked #44 by BP, and #67 by Baseball A.

Gallagher, the best player in the Cubs deal, was ranked #82 by BA, and missed the top 100 for BP.

I'd call Cedeno/Veal/Ceda about even with Mickolio/Sherill/Butler, so you're left with comparing Gallagher to two superior prospects.

These two packages aren't even in the same universe as each other.

by dkdc on Mar 14, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like lists as much as anyone ... but

First off, I wasn't saying it was better, but that it was close.

Tillman vs. Veal -

Let's look at what's there, what can be, and what's been. Stuff wise, they are about equal. Veal's change/break combo improved over the 2nd half of last year and his fastball has, by most accounts, better bite to it. Granted, that's a small sample size of improvement, but it is a level up.

What can they be? I think most would acknowledge that both are 2/3 projections rather than 1 or 2 projections. Why? Both have flashed top level stuff and shown levels of inconsistency. It's not as if Tillman has a far superior track record at similar levels, outside of age being a couple years younger.

If you disagree, I'd love to hear why you think Tillman is far superior. Does he offer better stuff? The one advantage for Tillman is that his 2nd pitch, the curve, is a bit ahead of Veal's 2nd pitch. That said, Veal's change isn't that far behind Tillman's curve, and both Tillman's 3rd (um off the top, I think it's the split) and Veal's curve are about at similar stages.

I don't see why they aren't close. Granted, the sample size was small, but Veal's control improved big time the 2nd half of the year (actually, it improved throughout the year). Add in that he was a level higher, and that power lefties are harder to find, and once again, why is it not close.

As for the rest - Would you take a number 2/3 pitcher in the bigs vs. a Torii Hunter type? If people were honest, I think that would be a much tougher decision than many would admit.

As for Butler, I admitted that I'm not as high on him as others are. I know Seattle fans scream future ace, but I see a possible 3. Maybe he develops into a 2/3 type like Veal. I don't see why he generates far more value than Ceda to not keep it close in a comparison, but that's certainly debatable. People also seem to have Ceda pegged in for the pen, and while he fits there, he is also extremely young that if a team wanted to try and develop a third pitch with him, it's not crazy. What's harder to find? A lefty that runs a fastball in the low-mid 90's with a solid curve? Or a righty that pounds the ball in the upper 90's with good movement and a nasty slider? I'm not sure, just think it's quite close.

And no, I don't think Jones would be top 5. Top 15 yes.

by toonsterwu on Mar 14, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

i'm a cubs fan although i'm not quite the homer i was prior to getting into prospects. but cubs fandom aside, i have to agree that this deal is nowhere near the one for bedard. i've watched gallagher, cedeno, and ceda. i think ceda is the only one with real mlb contribution possibilities.

i wanted gallagher to be that, and maybe he'll make it too, but i don't see it. to me, the O's get a collection of could be but probably won't players. the cubs get a guy who's peaked, but will definitely help.

roberts is twice the offensive player that derosa is. derosa will still get plenty of abs filling in pretty much everwhere except cf and catcher.

two OBP guys playing for the cubs at one time? hell has indeed frozen over. i'd like to think that we'd go roberts/fukodome as our 1/2 hitters. i smile when i think of guys on base in front of the next 4 guys.

pie is going to be fine in cf. he's had a good spring, and defensively he's an improvement over anyone we've had there for years. if he does just a little at the bottom of the order with theriot, it will be a bonus.

this deal definitely favors the cubs, imho.

http://www.simdynasty.com/index.jsp?refer=mychiefs58

by huckleberry on Mar 14, 2008 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

With so many differing opinions...

it makes me think this is a pretty decent offer. I will agree that I don't believe this is deal on par with the Bedard deal though. The Mainers and Cubs are the two teams I follow, so I have thought quite a bit about both of these trades with the Orioles.

I think Gallagher can still become a middle-to-bottom of the rotation arm. Some seasons a 3, some a 5. I'm not as sure about Veal. By everything I have read, and looking at his stats, I think he is never going to amount to much in the majors. Plenty of talent, but won't produce results. I don't know anything about Ceda really, so I can't comment on him. But I think Cedeno can be a league average (if slightly less) middle infielder to replace Roberts.

As for how this would impact the Cubs, I am very excited about that. Their line-up right now is looking like:

Soriano
Fukudome
Lee
A-Ram
Soto?
DeRosa
Theriot
Pie

That is a strong top 4 or 5 (depending on how Soto does), but I think it has some majors weaknesses from 5 or 6 on. Fukudome has been tried in the 3-hole with more Theriot or DeRosa into the 2-hole, but I think Fukudome is a 2-hitter. Now, with the possible acquisition of Roberts, their line-up could look like this:

Roberts
Fukudome
Soriano
Lee
A-Ram
Soto
Theriot
Pie

I've never liked having one of the most powerful bats leading off. And with the OBP that Roberts and Fukudome can offer, batting Soriano 3rd will give him the chance to knock in a lot more runs. Neither Roberts nor Fukudome are base cloggers so they should not slow down Soriano on the basepaths. Also, A-Ram is a much nicer #5 hitter than Soto is (guesstimating). I really think they should bat Theriot #8 though and let Pie hit 7th. With a young hitter like him, I think it can hurt his development to hit in front of a pitcher. He won't see as many good pitches and will get more intentional and "un"intentional walks. They can't hit him #2 this year (which I love to see done with good young hitters), but Theriot has more experience and I think can be a better hitter than Pie in the 8-hole.

All that is just my opinion though.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Mar 14, 2008 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the role of value

Whether or not a player pans out is only part of the equation. Value is another aspect of it.

I know I started a Gallagher thread awhile back, and the plurality was that most people viewed him as a 3 with some upside to be a 2. Yes, middle of the rotation types often get overrated or overhyped (Ian Kennedy comes to mind), but there is immense value in that, particularly when factoring in the market dynamics.

Ceda and Veal both offer rare commodities. Certainly, both have their question marks. That said, there aren't many high 90's fastball guys, a hard fastball at that, that can mix in a good mid-80's slider that bites. There are plenty of low 90's/curve ball lefties (heck, the Cubs have three). Veal is a power lefty.

As for Cedeno, I'm really not a fan there. But ... he does have all the tools and he was jerked around a bit. I mean, there's speed, some pop in the bat. What he needs to really determine if he can stick is, well, one thing the Cubs won't give him, opportunity and time.

by toonsterwu on Mar 14, 2008 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs