top 5 pitching farm systems

by rayver723 on Mar 10, 2008 4:05 PM EDT Comment 20 comments

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2008/265726.html

Looking solely at pitchers, the rankings would be much different. Here are my top five organizations in terms of mound prospects, with their overall ranking in the Handbook in parentheses:

Rays (1). Tampa Bay has the best overall farm system because it has a strong balance between hitters and pitchers, and as a group, the arms are more impressive. David Price, Wade Davis and Jake McGee all ranked in the top 17 on our overall Top 100 Prospects list, and Jeff Niemann snuck on at the end. Besides frontline pitchers, the Rays also have plenty of depth with Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Mason, Glenn Gibson, Juan Salas, Alex Cobb, Eduardo Morlan and Josh Butler. The rich may get richer, too, as Tampa Bay has the No. 1 overall pick in the June draft and could target Missouri righthander Aaron Crow or San Diego lefthander Brian Matusz.
Yankees (5). The obvious guys are Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy, who were spectacular in brief big league stints last year and are counted on heavily for 2008. Alan Horne, Jeff Marquez and Ross Ohlendorf all could contribute in New York this year as well, while Andrew Brackman, Mark Melancon and Humberto Sanchez and Dellin Betances all combine upside with medical question marks.
Orioles (16, will move up a couple of spots after the Erik Bedard trade, though Adam Jones doesn't count as a prospect). Chris Tillman, part of the Bedard deal, is a Top 100 prospect, as are Radhames Liz and Troy Patton, part of the Miguel Tejada trade. A year from now, Jake Arrieta and Chorye Spoone could be Top 100 guys, and Pedro Beato and Brandon Erbe have power arms. Garrett Olson is a lefty who knows how to pitch, though he nibbled too much in his big league debut.
Rangers (4). Eric Hurley will pitch in the majors this year, and Matt Harrison may join him, but the strength of the Texas system is very young arms. Neftali Feliz, Michael Main, Blake Beavan, Neil Ramirez, Fabio Castillo, Tommy Hunter and Wilmer Font have yet to reach full-season ball, while Kasey Kiker has advanced to low Class A and Omar Poveda has made five starts in high Class A.
Athletics (27, will move up to around 10 after trading Dan Haren and Nick Swisher for a slew of prospects). The best arms in Oakland's system are recent trade acquisitions Gio Gonzalez, Brett Anderson and Fautino de los Santos. Adding them to the previous inventory that included Trevor Cahill, James Simmons, Henry Rodriguez and Andrew Bailey put the A's past the Twins, Rockies, Indians and Dodgers for the last spot on this top five.

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orioles

I agree they are improving, but seems like #3 might be a bit premature for them. Patton is pretty much a non-factor until further notice, and I don't see how the Rangers stable of young upside arms doesn't overtake the few the Orioles have to offer. I think the rest is right on, though, and that the Orioles would still have to be fairly high.

http://rswanzey.blogspot.com

by rswanzey on Mar 10, 2008 4:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

In fact, I'd probably swap the A's for the Orioles. Of course, I'm very fond of Gio Gonzalez, and I think he's often ignored, so I may be a little biased.

by demondeaconbaseball on Mar 10, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

a's

Either/or. A's strength is that their glut of pitching prospects isn't a bunch of kids in their teens like the Rangers, so depends on who you talk to as to whether the A's or Rangers is more preferable. Either way though, I would absolutely have both above Baltimore.

http://rswanzey.blogspot.com

by rswanzey on Mar 10, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

And a lot can happen between A ball and the Show. I'd still put the A's at 3 though.

by demondeaconbaseball on Mar 10, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Orioles

to be fair, the foursome of Liz, Tillman, Patton, and Erbe do have some pretty nice upside. Raw, but major talent.

gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Mar 10, 2008 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

O's

The O's strength is their pitching depth, that's what's being overlooked. Their top guys are good. But it's the Spoone's, Olson's, Arrieta's, Hernandez's, Butler's etc. that make it special.

by cowboy4eva on Mar 10, 2008 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Orioles and Rangers...

both seem too high. I can understand the argument of exchanging Baltimore and Oakland in that ranking.

But I don't buy into the hype of Ranger pitching prospects. They don't have a recent history of producing any good pitchers. If Hurley were with another team I would like him much more. Harrison too. The other guys are too far away for me to really judge them. But like I said, when ranking prospects I take into account how good a team is at producing hitters and pitchers. And I don't think Texas has been that good lately.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Mar 10, 2008 6:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

well

I'm not sure how accurate that is - I think the jury's still out on the DVD trio, for example. Danks looks like he's still going to be really nice LT, and Volquez is still just 24 and looked like he made some major progress during the latter half of 2007. Diamond got hurt, which is just bad luck. But it's too early to write any of these guys off.

That said - I totally agree that the heart of the Rangers talent (pitchers and non-pitchers) is far, far away from the majors. But just by sheer volume of high-upside talent, a couple of their crop of low minors pitchers ought to turn into pretty valuable commodities. I see the reasoning for dropping a team like this a bit due to the high risk/high reward (e.g. behind Oakland, other teams with mostly closer prospects), but Baltimore really doesn't offer either IMO.

http://rswanzey.blogspot.com

by rswanzey on Mar 10, 2008 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Yankees...

I'm not sure if I would even put them #2. They have a lot of talent but also a LOT of injury concerns along with that talent. With the graduation of Hughes to major leaguer instead of prospect last season, i would put the A's #2 behind Tampa with the Yankees a close 3rd. Orioles and Rangers don't belong in top 5 imo. I'll take the dodgers over either of those franchises right now. Maybe in a year or two that will change, but not at the moment, at least not for me.

by deadboy on Mar 10, 2008 6:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dodgers and Reds

I don't think the Orioles should be up there. Yes they have some pitchers, but I don't think you can call any of them elite.

I'd throw the Dodgers up there at 2 or 3 with Kershaw, Elbert, Withrow, McDonald, Meloan, Orenduff, Adkins and maybe Miller.

The Reds could make the back-end of the top 5. With Cueto & Bailey, they have arguably as strong a 1-2 as everyone except maybe TB. Add Volquez, Maloney, Roenicke, Lotzkar, Wood & Watson and I'd put them ahead of Bal.

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Mar 10, 2008 6:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Rangers and Braves

Braves have some pretty good arms in the lower levels, as well as someone probably as good as Hurley in the uppers (Jurrjens).

Is the Rangers lower level really better than Hanson, Locke, Rohrbough, et al? I don't know the Rangers kids that well, so feel free to correct me.

gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Mar 10, 2008 6:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I was taking a look over at Gleeman's site.

Looking at the Twins arms in the minors is just impressive. Not necessarily so much at the top, but the sheer volume of arms that have a chance. Just take a look at this list

Deolis Guerra
Anthony Swarzak
Kevin Mulvey
Jeff Manship
Philip Humber
Oswaldo Sosa
Alex Burnett
Mike McCardell
Yohan Pino
Nick Blackburn
Jay Rainville
Zach Ward
Kyle Waldrop
Tyler Robertson
Brian Duensing
Ryan Mullins
Michael Tarsi

That's 17 legit prospects. 17!!! I don't think that they really belong in the top 5 right now, but the proverb about "the most important thing needed to develop a great starting pitcher is to have 10 great prospects, 9 of which will flame out."

I think guys like Rainville, Tarsi, and Burnett are ready to breakout, really bumping the Twins up on this list.

I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Mar 10, 2008 7:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

Totally agree with this post. That is a lot of legit prospects.
I think Blackburn wins 12 games as the #5 starter this year and when Livan's ERA is north of 5.50 mid-season Swarzak gets some time in the bigs.
Now if they could only develop some power or middle infielders!

by viggo21 on Mar 10, 2008 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BA's ranking scheme makes no sense to me

They will consistently rank a flameballer in rookie ball above a solid prospect in AAA, in spite of the fact that the AAA guy is far, far more likely to actually produce value at the major league level (which is kind of the point here). I mean, it's internally consistent, but it's also borderline useless.

There's no way the Rangers should be anywhere near the top of this list. They haven't developed a decent arm in 15 years. Couple that with the fact that their best arms are all way, way down in the development stage...

Rays
Dodgers
A's
Yankees
Red Sox

Semi-related topic (because it pushes the Rockies way down the list): what the hell happened to Franklin Morales?

by PaulThomas on Mar 10, 2008 7:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Just to be different...

I think the Orioles placement isn't so far out of whack. Liz, Erbe, Beato, Spoone all are flamethrowers, and several will be AA or higher. Tillman is another fireballer who should start in AA. That's a nice assortment of arms all in the upper levels, not to mention Patton, who wasn't bad before his shoulder injury, but it appears the article was written before that happened.

Admittedly, I'm a Liz fan. He just had several outstanding games last year, his overall numbers were very dominant, he's got great stuff, and has a clean bill of health. He's also having a nice spring so far. His ceiling is very high, and he's gone through stretches were he's shown good control, he just has to do that more consistently. Even failing that, he could be a dominant closer with that heater.

Anyway, I think the Orioles have a nice set of power arms all in the upper minors, which is more than most teams could say, and I can certainly how one could argue they should be in the top 5.

by beastball on Mar 10, 2008 7:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs