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Pat Misch

Pat Misch had a good outing today for the Giants in their spring training game against the Seattle Mariners.  He was their 3'rd pitcher of the game after Tim Lincecum's 2 2/3 shutout innings.  Misch's line for the day:  2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K.  

The reason I bring up Misch is he is the kind of prospect you almost never hear brought up, even in "sleeper" lists.  Yet, he stands a good chance of making the major league club out of spring training either as a #5 starter or long relief man.

Pat Misch, BD- 08/08/1981 was drafted in round 7, 2003 after an undistinguished college career at Western Michigan.  He's a LHP with nice size at 6'2", 170 lbs(I think he's a bit stockier than that now).

In his first pro summer for Salem-Keizer in the NWL, he went 7-5, 2.18, 86.2 IP, 20 BB, 61 K.  I thought he was the best pitcher on that Salem-Keizer team.  Apparently the Giants thought so too, and promoted him directly to AA Norwich for 2004.  He pitched very well there too:  7-6, 3.06, 159 IP, 35 BB, 123 K.

Promoted to AAA Fresno the following spring, he struggled for the first and really only time of his minor league career:  3-9, 6.35, 102 IP, 40 BB, 69 K.  Note that his K's took a slight dip, but the big difference was in the BB/9.  He was demoted back to AA where he regained his footing:  4-2, 3.52, 61.1 IP, 7 BB, 43 K.  

It would be easy to dismiss him at that point as a pitcher with limited upside who reached his ceiling in AAA.  For awhile, it looked like the Giants might agree as he was sent back to AA again to start the 2006 season.  Once again, he pitched well there:  5-4, 2.26, 103.2 IP, 24 BB, 79 K.   He was given another crack at AAA just after midseason and did much better this time:  4-2, 4.02, 65 IP, 11 BB, 57 K.  He was rewarded with a 1 inning cup of coffee in September.

The Giants sent him to the AFL that fall and had him work on pitching out of the bullpen with mixed results.  As you might expect from someone who had started up to that point, he tended to do better if he started an inning than if he came in with runners already on base.

Back in Fresno to start the 2007 season, Misch pitched mostly out of the bullpen in 2 and 3 inning stints and thrived:  2-5, 2.29, 66.2 IP, 19 BB, 74 K!  Called up toward the end of a disastrous season for the Giants, Misch acquitted himself well again earning Bruce Bochy's respect as one of the few relievers who came in and threw strikes.  His final MLB line was 0-4, 4.24, 40.1 IP, 12 BB, 26 K, but he came into his final start with a 2.75 ERA which ballooned to the 4.24 when he gave up 8 ER in 4.2 IP,

Misch's reputation is that he has 4 solid pitches, all of which he can throw for strikes, but no single "out" pitch.  BA calls his fastball "mid 80's", but I recall seeing it mostly 86-89 watching the radar readings on TV.  He added a cutter somewhere along the way enabling him to get inside on RH hitters.  He compliments the two fastballs with a slow curve and above average changeup that he throws on any count.

I think Misch will have a modestly successful MLB career.  He seems to have more starter's stuff, but has pitched more successfully out of the bullpen so far.  His ceiling is probably a #4 starter on an average team, but there are pitchers who have had long careers and made a lot of money with less.  For now, he has an excellent chance of sticking with the Giants bullpen as a long man with an outside chance at a #5 starter role if there is a trade, somebody gets hurt or Correia and Sanchez continue to pitch poorly.

Here's a picture of him pitching today:

Aw dadburnit!  I can't seem to get the right link!  Just go to giantsjottings.blogspot.com and scroll down a few pics and you'll find Pat Misch as well as a nice pics of Merkin Valdez and Tim Lincecum pitching today as well.

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I like Misch too!
I was hoping the Giants could trade Lowry and have Misch take his spot in the rotation.  Misch had a similar climb up the system to Lowry until his only stumble that you mentioned.  Like Lowry, changeup is his bread and butter, and he seems to have a pretty good command over it, given the high K/9 he gets.

I totally agree that he can have a nice career in the majors, hopefully he can do it for the Giants.  

However, I really don't see him making the rotation, the Giants seem to be pretty set on Correia vs. Sanchez, and while Correia could blow it by pitching horribly, it's not like the situation with Wilson, who had minimal MLB experience, Correia has been doing it for a while, so he would really have to do horrendously while Sanchez does well in order not to get the position.

And with all the relievers who the Giants would lose if they kept Misch up - Valdez, Capella, and Threets - plus the fact that there's not much depth in the starter's ranks in AAA, I see Misch put in AAA as a starter along with Sanchez, both will be insurance in 2008 for injury or Correia not really doing it, like when Madsen blew it starting for the Phillies a season or two ago after doing very well as a reliever.  

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Mar 1, 2008 5:20 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Trade Bait?
If I were an opposing GM in trade talks with the Giants for, say, a third baseman, Misch is a guy I would be asking about over some hard throwers who might have a higher ceiling, but much less liklihood of reaching it.  Misch can help a major league team right now in several ways.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 1, 2008 9:25 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Misch
According to what I saw in the pitch f/x data, he threw 63% fb, 15% change-ups, 18% curveballs, 4% sl. I could see a cutter, but there wasn't enough to separate them from the fb (3%?). It's pretty hard to discern between the slider and the curveball and maybe he actually doesn't throw a slider. His fb averaged 89.5 mph, though pitch f/x probably runs about 2 mph faster than the guns you see. All his pitches has a BABIP above .300 (.338 fb; .304 ch; .471 cb). 46% of his strikeouts (only like 21) came from the fb; 13% ch; 25% cb; 17% sl. None of his pitches were missing too many bats though... changeup was the best resulting in a swinging strike ~14% of the time it was thrown.

by ultxmxpx on Mar 1, 2008 11:42 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Walks
It's pretty clear that Misch has to keep his BB/9 doqwn to be successful.  So far, the only time he hasn't done that is his first crack at AAA.  I expect his MLB K/9 to rise slightly with more experience, but it will probably never go much above 7.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 1, 2008 3:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Merkin Valdez?
He's still alive an in baseball?
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Mar 1, 2008 4:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Valdez
Merkin is coming off a year long layoff for TJ surgery.  He's out of options, so he has to either make the 25 man roster or be exposed to waivers.  I wouldn't be surprised if he suffers a mysterious minor injury at the end of camp, and then resurfaces in a rehab role with midseason callup down the road.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 1, 2008 7:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd Reserve Misch for 1A
Someone has to bridge the gap between Zito and the long relievers...

by Dfarth on Mar 1, 2008 5:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Not A Bad Idea
Especially if Bochy really thinks he's going to carry just 11 pitchers, he's going to need one who can go 2-3 innings every 3'rd day or so.  Misch would be perfect for the role.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 1, 2008 7:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Giants certainly have a Misch Mash of pitchers
I too like Patrick Misch.  I had read in 2006 that major league batters would hit his curve ball, but I thought it was actually a pretty good pitch for him.  I haven't looked him up on PITCH/fx, but I'll try to take the time to do so.

When I saw Patrick pitch for the first time last spring at Fresno, I thought he looked like a guy who could pitch in the majors -- and I still feel that way.  As you pointed out, Dr., until his last start he was actually very good for the Giants.

The Giants' pitching situation is interesting -- especially if they decide to go with "only" 11 pitchers.

I would expect the starters to be the same as last year, with Jonathan Sanchez beginning the season in Fresno's rotation.  Still, that leaves eight seemingly major-league quality relievers and one Rule 5 Draftee (Jose Capellan) vying for just six relief spots.

Certainly Brian Wilson, Brad Hennessey and Tyler Walker appear to be locks as right handers.  Vinnie Chulk would seem a near-lock, although I personally would have no problem if Randy Messenger were to leave.

The left situation gets interesting.  I hope the Giants keep Capellan, although it would be easier to hide him in a LOOGY role if they kept a dozen pitchers.  Personally I wouldn't have re-signed Steve Kline and would trade him for a loaf of bread if possible.  Still, Steve's ERA has averaged around 4.00 the past two years, even if he didn't pitch nearly that well.

I haven't given up on Jack Taschner, although Jack needs to get more swing-throughs and fewer foul balls.  I don't see Erick Threets as being in the picture, although as you mention, Patrick Misch certainly should be.

I guess my own six picks for relievers if the Giants carry only 11 would be Wilson, Hennessey, Walker, Chulk, Capellan and Misch.  Also, someone could get traded.

I'm thinking Taschner must be out of options (Threets, too, I believe.), but does Misch have one left?

As for having a pitcher who can go 2-3 innings every third day or so, I would think almost ANY reliever could do so.  But major league managers seem to prefer to use all but the "long" guys an inning or less most of the time.

I would think the Giants could effectively hide Capellan in a combined long man/LOOGY role.  I really liked their choosing him, although they could wind up regretting passing on the available hitters.  But Capellan looks to me as if he has a shot -- and isn't that about all one can expect from a Rule 5 guy?

by sharksrog on Mar 2, 2008 5:38 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Options
I've read that Taschner still has an option!  I think Misch does too.  Threets and Merkin Valdez are both out of options.  I could see Valdez starting out on a rehab assignment of getting some sort of mysterious minor injury at the end of ST and going to extended ST.  Of course, Capellan has to stay or be offered back to Boston.  How about a Threets or Valdez for Capellan trade?

Interestingly, as bad as the Giants pitching has been so far, Taschner, Misch, Threets, Valdez and Cap have all pitched well.  Could it be that the others feel more secure so aren't going all out as early?  In Messenger's case, I have a feeling he just sucks.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 2, 2008 9:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Don't shoot the Messenger
Many Giants fans got excited about Randy Messenger when Randy enjoyed early success with the Giants, much as they got excited under somewhat similar circumstances two summers earlier surrounding Scott Munter.

But pitchers with poor K/BB ratios are usually merely mirages.

Threets pitched wonderfully yesterday, but I still don't consider Threets a threat.  Valdez I have hope for, and I think your idea makes sense to disable him so he can continue to rehabilitate his arm from Tommy John surgery.

Taschner didn't seem to have a go-to pitch last season, but I am reluctant to give up on him.

If Threets could be traded for Capellan,  I would be all for it.  I would be more reluctant to part with Perkin' Merkin, but I would also make that trade if necessary.

by sharksrog on Mar 2, 2008 4:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bah Humbug
I've had Pat on my roster in parts of the last two seasons running and he's disappointed me both times.  Last year was brutal, I'd leave him off the active roster and he'd pitch a gem, then I'd activate him and he'd get rocked.  Then two years ago, he pitches one inning for me in the last month of the season when he was active every week.  DOH!  Mahalo

Matt

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell05 on Mar 2, 2008 7:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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