Community Projection: B.J. Upton

by John Sickels on Mar 1, 2008 11:44 AM EST in News

What do you expect from the elder Upton this year?

Project:
Games
At-bats
Runs
Hits
doubles
triples
homers
RBI
walks
strikeouts
batting average (make sure the H/AB calc is correct)
steals
caught stealing

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Comments

my take

Games: 146
At-bats: 565
Runs: 90
Hits: 160
doubles: 36
triples: 7
homers: 27
RBI: 76
walks: 55
strikeouts: 146
batting average (make sure the H/AB calc is correct):.283
steals: 28
caught stealing: 8

by Bravesin07 on Mar 1, 2008 12:11 PM EST reply actions

BJ Upton projection

I'm pretty optimistic about Upton the elder:

Games: 155
At-bats: 560
Runs: 98
Hits: 165
doubles: 28
triples: 1
homers: 27
RBI: 90
walks: 79
strikeouts: 175
batting average: .294
steals: 28
caught stealing: 11

by JackSpellman on Mar 1, 2008 12:12 PM EST reply actions

Hes a lock for

Games: 150
At-bats: 555
Runs: 103
Hits: 185
doubles: 17
triples: 2
homers: 36
RBI: 102
walks: 65
strikeouts: 143
batting average: .304
steals: 40
caught stealing: 8

by dantalbot1 on Mar 1, 2008 12:26 PM EST reply actions

-1

Completely unrealistic. He has nowhere near that much power potential.

by redwolf75 on Mar 1, 2008 10:20 PM EST up reply actions

He absolutely does

I doubt he can hit that many this year, but he's got that kind of his potential. His bat speed is elite.

by Tyler on Mar 1, 2008 10:26 PM EST up reply actions

He projects more as 20-30 HR.

And maybe I'd let that fly if this was a projection for 2009-2011. But it's not.

by redwolf75 on Mar 2, 2008 2:05 AM EST up reply actions

And a distribution of 17 doubles and

36 HRs? This guy obviously doesn't know what he's talking about.

by redwolf75 on Mar 2, 2008 2:06 AM EST up reply actions

why isn't that possible? In '98 A-rod (age 23) hit 25 doubles and 42 homers. That wasn't out of line for him, either, as he has hit more homers than doubles every year since, too. In fact, only two of those years has his doubles even been within 10 of his homers, most years there is a much larger difference.

I think it is unlikely, but there is no reason to say he doesn't know what he is talking about.

by drwmsu1 on Mar 2, 2008 1:41 PM EST up reply actions

reply

I might be a little off but im sick of people projecting a similar season this year to what he did last year. He is a top talent... we are not talking about a guy who had a good year and is going to more than likely regress, the way it looks he is only going to get better from here. He will either bust or go at least 30-30 this year. Mark my words. nuff said

by dantalbot1 on Mar 2, 2008 7:24 PM EST up reply actions

And how do we know he won't regress?

by redwolf75 on Mar 3, 2008 7:57 PM EST up reply actions

RE

becuase 23 year olds with tons of talent dont regress...they get better. that is pretty obvious.

by jsmall404 on Mar 3, 2008 9:02 PM EST up reply actions

23-year-olds....

....are worse statistically than they were the year before plenty.

if i were betting money, i'd probably be better off taking the best someone will improve -- even the following year, specifically, rather than simply at someone's peak (though this isn't a slam-dunk either).

but don't pretend like it's some kind of inevitability. i'll take your money all day if you want to give me odds on a group of ten to twenty 23-year-olds not improving statistically in '08.

by bleedjaxblue on Mar 4, 2008 2:23 AM EST up reply actions

Ok, I admit I was being a bit too

harsh, but that kind of distribution is still extremely unlikely. A-Rod's was unique.

by redwolf75 on Mar 3, 2008 1:11 AM EST up reply actions

RE

geez I drafted the guys with the 14th overall pick in my one year league and I dont even expect that.

I agree, he has that potential, but to say he is a LOCK for it.

I think he could hit 30+ HR, or steal 40 bases..but to put that in the same year is unrealistic for a 23 year old.

And then someone says "AROD did it"
lol, yeah compare him to the best player ever..lets be realistic here

Assuming he gets 600 ABs and hits 3rd most of the year:

HR - 31
Runs - 95
RBI - 90
SB - 34
Avg. 290

by jsmall404 on Mar 3, 2008 6:17 PM EST up reply actions

Alright

I'll compare him to a guy who he gets compared to a lot, Eric Davis. Ready?
Age 24---15 doubles, 27 homers
age 25---23 doubles, 37 homers
age 26---18 doubles, 26 homers
age 27---14 doubles, 34 homers

Or would you rather David Justice, who went 15-40 at age 27, or maybe carlos Beltran, who put up 14-26 at age 26. Kirk Gibson pulled an 11-28. Oh, and back to Hall of Famers, Griffey Junior had 24-40 at age 24.

So back to the point where I defended the person who had something like 17 doubles and 36 homers. Is it possible for athletic, fast ballplayers to put up a significantly higher number of homers than doubles? Yup. All I said was A-Rod hit a lot more dingers than doubles. So don't blast me for that. In fact, I believe I said I found his prediction unlikely.

by drwmsu1 on Mar 3, 2008 7:04 PM EST up reply actions

projection

2007 AL leaders, AB per HR.

Pena-TBD 10.7
Rodriguez-NYY 10.8
Thome-CHW 12.3
Cust-OAK 15.2
Ortiz-BOS 15.7
Konerko-CHW 17.7
Dye-CHW 18.1
Morneau-MIN 19.0
Upton-TBD 19.8
Sheffield-DET 19.8

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL_2007_t.shtml

by wily mo on Mar 3, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions

Bossman

I love Bossman Junior!

Games: 153
At-bats: 530
Runs: 102
Hits: 155
doubles: 33
triples: 4
homers: 31
RBI: 97
walks: 82
strikeouts: 155
batting average (make sure the H/AB calc is correct): .292
steals: 32
caught stealing: 11

.292/.387/.545

by Tyler on Mar 1, 2008 12:32 PM EST reply actions

+1

my prediction would look the same. Im confident he does 30-30 this year

by daveh33 on Mar 1, 2008 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

A little less optimistic because of health

Injures his thumb sliding into third, one DL stint. I know it is difficult to predict injuries but I think his style of agressive play would cause one to happen

Games: 126
At-bats: 457
Runs: 89
Hits: 138
doubles: 27
triples: 4
homers: 27
RBI: 88
walks: 58
strikeouts: 124
batting average:.302
steals: 31
caught stealing: 12

by dlpme77 on Mar 1, 2008 1:15 PM EST reply actions

BJ

Games: 143
At-bats: 543
Runs: 93
Hits: 160
doubles: 29
triples: 3
homers: 27
RBI: 93
walks: 68
strikeouts: 159
batting average: .295
steals: 26
caught stealing: 10

Only thing that would scare me about Upton is the fact that he only has had 2 really good months in the majors. He ended the year hitting .251 over his last 59 games. If you take out April and July from last year his ML average is .262. He has all the talent in the world, but I'm not as sure as everyone else that he is a lock to be a superstar.

by nyy601 on Mar 1, 2008 2:01 PM EST reply actions

BJ Upton

He's a keeper.

Avg .278
AB 530
R 91
H 148
2B 28
3B 2
HR 21
RBI 75
BB 69
SO 145
SB 28
CS 11

by Jim Wiser on Mar 1, 2008 2:06 PM EST reply actions

RE

how do you have him hitting less HR than he did last year in 100 more Abs lol

by jsmall404 on Mar 3, 2008 6:19 PM EST up reply actions

Bossman Jr.

Games: 155
At-bats: 540
Runs: 100
Hits: 169
doubles: 27
triples: 6
homers: 31
RBI: 104
walks: 83
strikeouts: 171
batting average: .313
steals: 35
caught stealing: 9
.313/.405/.555

Too optimistic I know. Oh well.

Talkin' Sports

by BlackOps on Mar 1, 2008 2:16 PM EST reply actions

Upton Projection

G 160
AB 625
Runs 96
Hits 170
2b 32
3b 3
Hr 34
Avg .272
RBI 106
W 85
K 181
Sb 30
Cs 13

I think his power skills look real and building, he was lucky last year with ba and may take a hit but I overall see nice growth in skills and Tampa may have some magic this summer so I'm giving him an optimistic projection

by ribman on Mar 1, 2008 3:57 PM EST reply actions

Projections are hard

But they're also fun.

147 G
515 AB
92 R
137 H
33 2B
6 3B
25 HR
97 RBI
.266/.353/.499
69 BB
124 K
40 SB
21 CS

Notes on the season/career:

Surprises everybody when significant cut in strikeout frequency is accompanied by a dive in average. Slight increases across the board in 2009 leading into a massive spike in production in 2010.
Pitchers get a little smarter against him so he doesn't hit as many dingers this year. Doesn't matter all that much as he also gets a little smarter, puts balls into the gaps more often, and isolated power jumps anyways.
A hammy tightens up on him in early July leading him to take a bit of time off into the All Star break. He runs a ton early in the year, but slows down a bit to watch the hammy. In late August he realizes he's got a shot at 40 bags, starts running again, gets caught a bunch in the process but sneaks in with No. 40 on the second to last day of the season.

by mrkupe on Mar 1, 2008 4:51 PM EST reply actions

Project: B.J. Upton

Games 152
At-bats 540
Runs 102
Hits 165
doubles 30
triples 3
homers 28
RBI 92
walks 75
strikeouts 130
batting average (make sure the H/AB calc is correct) 305/390/518
steals 28
caught stealing 12

by red257 on Mar 1, 2008 5:28 PM EST reply actions

B.J. Upton 2008 Projection

G 147
AB 540
R 102
H 153
2B 33
3B 3
HR 24
RBI 90
BB 78
K 160
AVG .282
S 31
CS 11

by ecpoladian on Mar 1, 2008 6:22 PM EST reply actions

better than jeter

Games 150
At-bats 540
Runs 92
Hits 158
doubles 26
triples 3
homers 28
RBI 92
walks 79
strikeouts 150
batting average .293
steals 36
caught stealing 12

by god allah star on Mar 1, 2008 7:44 PM EST reply actions

Projection

Games:145
At-Bats:572
Runs:88
Hits:153
Doubles:39
Triples:5
Homers:19
RBI:79
Walks:66
Strikeouts:137
BA:.267
SB:26
CS:12

by dogwipe on Mar 1, 2008 8:07 PM EST reply actions

What happened to him?

Talkin' Sports

by BlackOps on Mar 1, 2008 11:14 PM EST up reply actions

sunny days

Games 140
At-bats 506
Runs 83
Hits 138
doubles 24
triples 2
homers 16
RBI 74
walks 70
strikeouts 145
batting average .273
steals 31
caught stealing 13

everyone, with their goggles of optimism on, will yell at this projection, but it still is a successful season

by Deech on Mar 1, 2008 8:09 PM EST reply actions

Studd Muffin

I think he's better than his bro will EVER be.
Project:
Games 154
At-bats 587
Runs 106
Hits 171
doubles 36
triples 13
homers 26
RBI 91
walks 48
strikeouts 121
batting average (make sure the H/AB calc is correct) .297
steals 29
caught stealing 8

The Twins WILL compete in 2008!!!

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 1, 2008 8:32 PM EST reply actions

No-Dirty-Puns-Here Upton

Games: 143
At-bats: 509
Runs: 96
Hits: 142
doubles: 30
triples: 3
homers: 28
RBI: 93
walks: 63
strikeouts: 167
batting average: .279
steals: 24
caught stealing: 9

OBP - .358
Slug - .515
OPS - .873

I wish I could be the optimistic type, especially since he's on a SIM-league team of mine. But I can't. That's not to say this is bad, just not what he did last year.

"...It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... people will come Ray. People will most definitely come."

by metsman128 on Mar 1, 2008 8:40 PM EST reply actions

Projection

Games: 154
At-bats: 575
Runs: 94
Hits: 160
doubles: 34
triples: 3
homers: 23
RBI:92
walks:85
strikeouts: 173
batting average (make sure the H/AB calc is correct): .278
steals: 29
caught stealing: 8

by andwoo on Mar 1, 2008 8:44 PM EST reply actions

BJ

Games: 154
At-bats: 592
Runs: 107
Hits: 170
doubles:33
triples: 3
homers: 28
RBI: 98
walks: 85
strikeouts: 154
batting average: .287
steals: 35
caught stealing: 10

by hybrid on Mar 1, 2008 9:10 PM EST reply actions

BJ

Games: 132
AB: 501
Runs: 87
Hits: 140
doubles: 31
triples: 6
homers: 13
RBI: 87
walks: 76
strikeouts: 150
AVG:.279
steals: 31
caught stealing:6

by SFG2008 on Mar 1, 2008 9:28 PM EST reply actions

What happened to him?

Talkin' Sports

by BlackOps on Mar 1, 2008 11:16 PM EST up reply actions

Upton projection

Games: 151
At-bats: 561
Runs: 99
Hits: 152
doubles: 28
triples: 2
homers: 31
RBI: 95
walks: 82
strikeouts: 164
batting average (make sure the H/AB calc is correct): .271
steals: 32
caught stealing: 12

I'll buy into an increase in power at 23 this year. I'm afraid the homers are too optimistic, but other than 06 split between Durham and the Rays he's been improving a lot from year to year. I think the steals will be in the park, and I'm assuming he can maintain something around his 75% success rate. I think the average will go down with so many K's.

by carverslacker @ Minor League Ball on Mar 1, 2008 10:01 PM EST reply actions

he's gonna get better

Games - 146
At-bats - 584
Runs - 108
Hits - 186
doubles - 32
triples - 5
homers - 32
RBI - 112
walks - 74
strikeouts - 133
batting average - .308
steals - 32
caught stealing - 8

by Wheelhouse on Mar 2, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions

Y'know he COULD regress a little

Games - 90
At bats - 325
Runs - 53
Hits - 88
Doubles - 14
Triples - 3
Home runs - 13
RBI - 46
walks - 39
strikeouts - 97
batting average - .271
steals - 17
caught stealing - 6

So I guess I predicting an injury as well here, but I think he slumps a little before it anyway. Why do I say this? Because everyone else seems to think it's a slam dunk that he's on his way to stardom. I am a true believer in a sophomore jinx. Okay he's not a true sophomore, and I'm not saying it happens in all cases, but certainly it could happen here. Besides, why would Tampa Bay have anything other than bad luck?

by journeymen on Mar 2, 2008 1:50 AM EST reply actions

Upton 2008

Games        142
At-bats        540
Runs        102
Hits        164
doubles        42
triples        11
homers        25
RBI        89
walks        67
strikeouts    132
ave        .304
steals        23
cs        7

by tycobb420 on Mar 2, 2008 11:12 AM EST reply actions

projection...

Project:
Games 150
At-bats 580
Runs 105
Hits 166
doubles 27
triples 8
homers 18
RBI 73
walks 50
strikeouts 132
batting average .285
steals 22
caught stealing 13

My favorite part of this thread was the guy projecting a .870 OPS and claiming to not be optimistic.

by mraver on Mar 2, 2008 11:56 AM EST reply actions

amazing

TangoTiger's Marcel forecast for BJ Upton is 433 AB, 22 2B, 17 HR, 64 RBI, 52 BB, 115 K, 19 SB.

I can't believe how many people predict Upton to be a superstar this year. Is it POSSIBLE that he ends up hitting 30 HR and has an All Star year? Sure, but probably a 1% chance or less.

by sabernar on Mar 2, 2008 1:02 PM EST reply actions

1% chance that he hits 30?

...after he hit 24 in 129 games last season?!?!

ok buddy

but i have a feeling most of the doubters are having to strongly talk themselves into being the doubters///

by daveh33 on Mar 2, 2008 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

Upton - a bit less optimistic

I think his BA and power will drop a bit, although in response to Sabernar, I can see why some people do like them to improve - he's 23, playing his first year at a single position where he can focus on offense, and did manage to his 24 HRs with a .300 BA in less than a full season last year. There are indicators that his BA and power were lucky though.

Games: 161
At-bats: 621
Runs: 105
Hits: 167
doubles: 41
triples: 2
homers: 16
RBI: 101
walks: 79
strikeouts: 172
batting average: .269/.353/.419
steals: 35
caught stealing: 8

I'll also guess that he gets some 10th place MVP votes on account of the Rays having a .500 record and Upton having over 100 runs and RBIs, despite having worse non-team dependent stats than the previous year.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Mar 2, 2008 1:25 PM EST reply actions

my take

Project:
Games: 153
At-bats: 584
Runs: 101
Hits: 167
doubles: 39
triples: 5
homers: 26
RBI: 110
walks: 73
strikeouts: 114
batting average (make sure the H/AB calc is correct): .286
steals: 32
caught stealing: 10

by Marcel on Mar 2, 2008 4:36 PM EST reply actions

does anyone know...

or think they know where Upton is batting in the lineup?

by ecpoladian on Mar 2, 2008 5:44 PM EST reply actions

Clean up

So far everything that I have read is saying he will bat clean up.

by hybrid on Mar 2, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions

BJ

Games: 145
ABs: 532
R: 101
H: 152
2B: 33
3B: 1
HR: 25
RBI: 97
BB: 73
K: 154
Avg: .286
Steal: 20
CS: 7

by GoldenSpikes24 on Mar 2, 2008 8:50 PM EST reply actions

surprised

i love bj but two things stood out to me from this thread: people EXPECT him to continue putting up or improve upon numbers which are unsustainable given his current underlying skills, and people forget that he's batting clean up. as for the latter, i know he seems like he'd be better batting second with speed and a high obp, but he won't, so it'd be odd for him to have more runs than rbi. his average must come down, unless he bumps up his contact rate a lot and maybe cuts down on a few more strike outs. either way, with a .300 average, a .400 babip and a 69% contact rate, something's gotta give. he could breakout big, but i'd expect a bit of regression with a few more games played and a few more steals. i'll say:

145 games
560 abs
90 runs
155 hits
36 doubles
5 triples
23 hrs
105 rbi
75 bb
140 k
.277 avg
32 sb
9 cs

by PergsIV on Mar 2, 2008 9:38 PM EST reply actions

Upton projection:

Project:
Games 151
At-bats 528
Runs 101
Hits 154
doubles 41
triples 7
homers 24
RBI 96
walks 80
strikeouts 136
batting average (make sure the H/AB calc is correct) .292
steals 21
caught stealing 8

"our deepest fears are not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fears is that we are powerful beyong measure."

by gashousegang on Mar 2, 2008 9:59 PM EST reply actions

Projection

Project:
152 Games
545 AB
160 Hits
92 Runs
36 Doubles
6 Triples
26 Home Runs
99 RBI
78
128
.294
33 Stolen Bases
8 Caught Stealing

by Baseball Mastermind on Mar 3, 2008 12:54 AM EST reply actions

BJ

As a Bossman owner, there's not one projection in this thread that I'd be unhappy about... well... maybe some of the injury predictions would be upsetting but even those can't be ruled out... the kid runs like crazy and injuries happen...

150 Games
525 AB
151 Hits
85 Runs
45 Doubles
5 Triples
25 Home Runs
104 RBI
60 BB
120 Strikeouts
.288 BA
35 SBs
7 CS

I traded for BJ like 3 or 4 years ago and it's been a nice ride... While I believe in the sophomore jinx thing, he's not a true soph and he's going to be in one heck of a lineup. Go BJ!!

One other thing, my numbers are based on him batting 4th... if he was batting 2nd, I'd swap the RBI and Run numbers and give him another 5 SBs.

by etservices on Mar 3, 2008 8:48 AM EST reply actions

Bossman

Games- 151
At-bats- 527
Runs- 101
Hits- 151
doubles- 33
triples- 6
homers- 22
RBI- 87
walks- 80
strikeouts- 127
batting average- .286
steals- 29
caught stealing- 11

by ScottAZ on Mar 3, 2008 10:14 AM EST reply actions

Upside

I do think highly of BJ Upton, and I'm inclined to say that he makes significant inroads towards superstardom this season. Note the SB, as I do think he's going to run alot this season. I also think his walks will be mildly inflated by IBB's as the season wears on.

Project:
Games: 151
At-bats: 580
Runs: 110
Hits: 161
doubles: 38
triples: 7
homers: 29
RBI: 115
walks: 88
strikeouts: 140
batting average: .278
steals: 45
caught stealing: 10

278/373/517, some 10th place MVP votes.

by GuyinNY on Mar 3, 2008 10:51 AM EST reply actions

for the record

I want to say that my gut feels like I'm lowballing him, and that he will do something like 290 with 35HR, 40HR, and "only" 110K for a big "surprise" breakout player.

P.S. I stand by my numbers. Just wanted to put that out there. :)

by GuyinNY on Mar 3, 2008 1:17 PM EST up reply actions

Another view

Games: 140
At-bats: 515
Runs: 100
Hits: 149
doubles: 33
triples: 11
homers: 24
RBI: 91
walks: 85
strikeouts: 121
batting average (make sure the H/AB calc is correct):.289
steals: 21
caught stealing: 6

I think he misses a few games due to injury, but he has a terrific year - particularly with regard to secondary average.

by doug frobel on Mar 3, 2008 12:26 PM EST reply actions