Question About Johan Santana

by Maine Man on Feb 7, 2008 5:52 PM EST

Sorry if it's a bit off topic, but I was just wondering if it was true that Johan stopped throwing his slider in the second half..

Is there any reason why?

and what do you expect from him in the upcoming season

LETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METSLETS GO METS

Poll

How Many Games Will Johan Santana Win?

20+

49 votes

18-19

38 votes

16-17

26 votes

14-15

6 votes

119 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

I heard

that he threw very few sliders in the second half. A lot of people think that it was because he didn't want to hurt his arm(like Liriano) from throwing too many sliders. He didn't want to lose his big paycheck. I expect that he will throw it in 2008 because he already has the guaranteed money.

by metsfan @ Minor League Ball on Feb 7, 2008 5:58 PM EST reply actions

Liriano

His best pitch was his slider. That's why he threw it so much. Johan's success is greatly predicated on the separation between his fastball and wicked changeup.

"The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns." -mckeeno

by PujolsJunkie on Feb 7, 2008 6:02 PM EST reply actions

A lot of people

seem to think there may be the beginnings of an arm injury with Liriano. He lost some velocity, stopped throwing as many sliders, his home run rate went up, and he pitched poorly compared to his usual production in the second half. I think there may be some issues with him and I almost expect an arm injury in the next 3-4 seasons (mostly due to how much he has pitched in recent years) but I don't think it'll be an immediate thing that ruins him, obviously the Mets wouldn't have traded for him, passed him on his physical, or signed him long-term if they had a big fear that he would get injured quickly.

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by was385 on Feb 7, 2008 6:14 PM EST reply actions

RE:

"seem to think there may be the beginnings of an arm injury with Liriano"

I assume you mean Santana?

by AucklandGM on Feb 7, 2008 6:22 PM EST up reply actions

yeah

sorry, I was on autopilot. It should be Santana.

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by was385 on Feb 7, 2008 7:03 PM EST up reply actions

Johan never threw many sliders to begin with

Johans slider is more of a show me pitch, he is mostly fastball/changeup, his velocity was not down last fall. And his K/9 and k/bb was right in line with what it usually is.

Whenever a player is too good for a long period of time people just want to take them down. See pujols and his age, etc.

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Feb 7, 2008 8:52 PM EST reply actions

It's true

He stopped throwing his slider in the second half because of a blister problem. When he throws his slider more than a couple dozen times a game (counting warm-ups) he develops a blood blister under the nail. As the nail grows out, it prevents him from getting good bite on the pitch. So he stopped throwing it for three or four starts. Then he'd throw it again for a start (such as the 17-strikeout game) and he'd stop throwing it again. That's the way it went for most of the year. And that's the reason he wasn't as dominant last year as in years past. He's a tough to hit as a two-itch pitcher. He's almost unhitable with a third pitch.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Feb 7, 2008 9:03 PM EST reply actions

I actually just heard...

from a very good source inside the Twins that Johan not throwing his slider was about k's for him.

The slider was not a strikeout pitch for him, and he was very (selfishly) concerned with K's this year knowing he was basically pitching for his big payday.

Obviously it didn't work. I think the shine is at least a little bit off Johan as a "good" guy with reports like this lately.

by DJSkillz on Feb 7, 2008 10:28 PM EST up reply actions

I've always thought

he got quite a few K's and back door sliders because hitters RHers in particular are so focused on Fastball/change up

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Feb 7, 2008 11:03 PM EST up reply actions

That would be pretty selfish

I wouldn't be surprised if he was trying to pad his stats. But the team needed him to throw more innings, and the best way to do that was to use his slider.

His slider was the difference between a six-inning start with 10 Ks and and an eight-inning start with six Ks. Against the Mets, for example, he had one strike-out and threw a four-hit shutout. His slider was working, getting ground balls on the first pitch to all the right-handed hitters.

In a lot of other games, he would get two quick strikes with the fastball and then nibble with the change, trying to coax a K when he could just as easily get the guy out with a ground out from a sinker or slider. He'd end up averaging six or seven pitches per out, and he'd leave after six.

I just don't know what to think. But I don't want to believe that he was padding his stats to the detriment of the team. I want to believe that he changed his approach because of the blister. Either way, Mets fans have more to worry about than their front office is saying.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Feb 8, 2008 1:57 AM EST up reply actions

hey

i'd rather worry about santana than kyle lohse or livan every day of the week

by Rob Castellano on Feb 8, 2008 11:02 AM EST up reply actions

Ya CMath...

I agree, I was semi-shocked by the accusation. But that is what I just heard from a source that I definitely trust through basically what is a top 5 guy in the Twins' front office staff.

So I do believe it.

by DJSkillz on Feb 9, 2008 1:12 AM EST up reply actions

Red flags

Jonah has the fewest questions of any available pitcher. But he is not without red flags, many of which have surfaced since the trade.

The biggest thing for me is the me-first attitude. It turns out a lot of the PR coming from the Twins when Johan was a member of the organization was just that. He's actually a pretty selfish player who will risk scuttling a deal he forced his old team into over a 1% difference in dollars.

As bad as that sounds, if he's trying to win K crowns in order to win Cy Youngs, thereby putting his own stats ahead of team goals, it's a big red flag.

The other red flag is health. He works hard between starts, which makes injury less likely. But his slight build and mechanics mean it's only a matter of time. Even nagging injuries, like the blister and hamstring problem he had last year, turn a dominant pitcher into an ordinary innings eater.

He doesn't have a lot of margin for error, really. He gets by mostly on intense focus and guile. When something disrupts that, he makes an inordinate amount of mistakes. That's why he led the majors in HRs allowed last year.

Everyone says the market for Johan was so depressed because of the no-trade and his contract demands. True enough. But the bottom fell out of the market in part because of the aforementioned red flags. The more the Yankees and Red Sox studied it, the more worried they got that he won't be the pitcher during the contract that he was before the contract. They just might be right.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Feb 10, 2008 2:16 PM EST up reply actions

As a Mets fan

after hearing all of these contradictory reports, I just hope Johan starts throwing his slider again, so he can go back to his 2004 form.

by metsfan @ Minor League Ball on Feb 7, 2008 10:47 PM EST reply actions

yeah

cause you wouldn't want his 2005, 2006 or 2007 form in your rotation

by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 8, 2008 1:25 AM EST up reply actions

Of course not

Talkin' Sports

by BlackOps on Feb 8, 2008 2:17 AM EST up reply actions

reality for the most part

Here was his pitch selection by month (FB, SL, CU), but April and May is I believe only one start while July onwards is just about every one of his starts:
April: 65%, 18%, 16%
May: 56%; 2%; 42%
July: 55%; 15; 31
Aug: 59, 9, 32
Sept: 66, 11, 23

And here are contact rates (how often contact was made with pitches swung at {i.e. not swinging strikes}):
April: .906, .444, .167
May: .739; 1.000; .250
July: .831; .600; .488
Aug: .689, .833, .490
Sept: .779, .737, .692

Here's his average fastball speed by month (from April to September, with no June data), although too much faith shouldn't be put in it:
93.1; 93.4; 93.9; 93.0; 92.7

Also check out his contact rates and pitch selection against lefties and righties:
V. L: .806; .594; .692;;;; 65%; 27%; 8%
V. R: .768; .792; .467;;;; 59%; 6%; 35%

by ultxmxpx on Feb 8, 2008 10:58 AM EST reply actions

That's some awesome data

Where do you get that stuff? I assume it's something you have to pay for.... BIS Perhaps?

by mraver on Feb 8, 2008 6:04 PM EST up reply actions

pitch f/x

I'm using the same basic data that Josh Kalk is using, but he doesn't have too many stats to see per player (http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/players.html). I have some data here (http://theuniverseas.com/baseball/baseball.html), but I haven't updated it since August 8th or so and I didn't have it split up by months then. I almost have the whole AL complete (every player with data on an AL 40-man roster) with the month splits and more. It's time and brain consuming though.
Here's a good primer on how you can toy with the same data yourself: http://webusers.npl.uiuc.edu/~a-nathan/pob/pitchtracker.html
and another good site: http://fastballs.wordpress.com/

by ultxmxpx on Feb 8, 2008 7:54 PM EST up reply actions

Whoa

Please please please update your site. I've been looking for comprehensive Pitch/fx data for months. And adding the NL would be killer too...

by Yakker on Feb 8, 2008 9:18 PM EST up reply actions

Twins fan perspective

Johan knows how to adjust to his stuff, that's what makes him great. His fastball and change up didn't have as much difference in speed last year as in previous years, if that makes any sense. I don't think he was as able to take as much off his fastball as he has b4.

Daddyboy

by Daddyboy on Feb 8, 2008 10:59 AM EST reply actions