The method:

A prospects value to his team is almost entirely tied up in the value he provides over his first six years of service time. In theory, a player should be paid market value after six year. That's not always the case, but for purposes of this study, we'll assume that to be true.

I took the WARP1 from BP and put it into a formula very similar to MORP to come up with a $ amount for each season played. This helps account for the superstar premium. Negative WARP counts as $0. Then I take the net present value of all those years and rank the players. I used a 15% discount rate, but no season can be counted less than half. That might not be economically sound, but I think it helps us in reaching the desired result.

I go out to six years of service time, regardless of whether the player was traded,  released, or had a year or two of free agency bought out. Usually only a star or superstar will have years of free agency bought out at a discount. I did not count value returned in trades. This is another area where developing one superstar will net a bigger return than multiple above average players of "equal" value.

I did the best I could with service time, but it wasn't always easy to tell when the clock started.

To be eligible for the list a player had to rank in BA's top 100 in 1998 or play in full season ball. I'm sure I missed a few fringe players, but the top half of the list should be accurate.

The Results:

Helton, Berkman, and Halladay are no suprise. They were all top prospects. Helton was ranked #11 that year by BA and #4 with a straight A from John. Halladay was ranked #38 by BA heading into 1998 and would peak at #12 in 1999. Berkman was a 1998 draftee and ranked #64 by BA and would climb as high as #13 in 1999. All three are still superstars. Helton has a good chance at the Hall.

The first big suprise was Hidalgo at #4. Not only did I not think of his career worthy of a top 5 prospect, I thought of him as a minor bust. He is the epitome of why we like guys with tremendous ceilings. His 2000 season alone would have ranked him at #37 overall! He had another big season in 2003 surrounded by a bunch of mediocrity. He was ranked #19 heading into 1998 by BA.

The next group is Javier Vazquez and Freddy Garcia. These were your basic #1 starters that stayed healthy. As I would have expected, only four of the top 20 are pitchers. Neither of these guys were top prospects. Garcia ranked #64 in 1999, and Vazquez came completely out of nowhere.

Moving down the list, Chavez at #7 was already an elite prospect heading into 1998. Beltran was a toolsy outfielder in the low minors that ranked #93 in 1997 and #13 in 1999 but for some reason wasn't ranked in 1998.

Richie Sexson was a miss in 1998. He was a 22yo in AA that hit 31 bombs, was big, and didn't whiff too often at 18.8%. He was not ranked by BA and did not make John's top 50.

Kerry Wood probably had the best stuff on this list, but was undone by injuries.  He still had three star level years plus his 1998 rookie season to rank #13.

Adrian Beltre was a universal top 3 prospect. His phenomanal contract year in 2004 accounts for about half of his value. Another example of why we like the guys with superstar potential.

Rolondo Arrojo was #1 after 1998 and 1999. A good example of why we don't judge prospect lists after two years.

BA's #1 and John's #2, Ben Grieve comes in a #48. He was actually solid for the first four years of his career, but never a superstar.

David Ortiz comes in at #52. He had his biggest years after his service time was up.

Chad Hermansen was probably the biggest bust. He was ranked #13 by both BA and John and produced a whopping $116k in value.

1    Helton,Todd     $112,608,674
2    Berkman,Lance     $77,994,734
3    Halladay,Roy     $76,401,302
4    Hidalgo,Richard     $70,083,271
5    Garcia,Freddy     $68,780,473
6    Vazquez,Javier     $68,591,926
7    Chavez,Eric     $66,517,938
8    Beltran,Carlos     $61,223,809
9    Sexson,Richie     $61,145,562
10    Ordonez,Magglio     $60,482,214
11    Lowell,Mike     $58,774,619
12    Lee,Derrek     $58,349,695
13    Wood,Kerry     $56,103,980
14    Tejada,Miguel     $54,166,304
15    Kotsay,Mark     $53,829,886
16    Beltre,Adrian     $52,276,916
17    Glaus,Troy     $50,155,983
18    Jenkins,Geoff     $49,371,046
19    Polanco,Placido     $47,795,787
20    Cabrera,Orlando     $44,129,226
21    Arrojo,Rolando     $43,594,628
22    Washburn,Jarrod     $42,539,012
23    Milton,Eric     $42,203,161
24    Rollins,Jimmy     $40,773,128
25    Escobar,Kelvim     $39,513,804
26    Ponson,Sidney     $38,492,642
27    Casey,Sean     $35,661,946
28    Westbrook,Jake     $35,113,656
29    Lee,Carlos     $35,000,980
30    Arroyo,Bronson     $34,790,474
31    Johnson,Nick     $34,365,358
32    Guillen,Carlos     $33,629,040
33    Miller,Wade     $33,364,061
34    Cordero,Fransisco     $33,259,051
35    Wilson,Preston     $32,550,029
36    Millar,Kevin     $32,475,473
37    Belliard,Ron     $30,974,678
38    Lee,Travis     $30,854,392
39    Hernandez,Ramon     $30,566,403
40    Pavano,Carl     $30,406,913
41    Clement,Matt     $29,146,687
42    Hunter,Torii     $28,237,106
43    Konerko,Paul     $27,486,714
44    Wells,Vernon     $26,907,197
45    Ramirez,Aramis     $26,621,123
46    Benson,Kris     $26,432,189
47    Pierzynski,A.J.     $26,181,455
48    Grieve,Ben     $23,267,964
49    Penny,Brad     $23,029,868
50    Looper,Braden     $20,746,296
51    Encarnacion,Juan     $20,724,332
52    Ortiz,David     $20,355,186
53    Chacon,Shawn     $19,146,503
54    Armas,Tony     $18,319,739
55    Eaton,Adam     $17,983,174
56    Dempster,Ryan     $17,977,558
57    Chen,Bruce     $17,603,692
58    Yan,Esteban     $17,359,206
59    Jackson,Damian     $17,042,937
60    Jimenez,D'Angelo     $16,636,732
61    Elarton,Scott     $16,187,352
62    Ortiz,Ramon     $16,119,475
63    Meche,Gil     $16,026,340
64    Crede,Joe     $15,797,736
65    Julio,Jorge     $15,617,078
66    Linebrink,Scott     $15,557,477
67    Parque,Jim     $15,356,651
68    Riske,David     $15,030,378
69    Towers,Josh     $14,662,364
70    Marquiss,Jason     $14,084,223
71    Duchscherer,Jusitn     $13,534,798
72    Wilson,Craig     $13,036,028
73    Marrero,Eli     $12,699,582
74    Reitsma,Chris     $12,687,744
75    Barrett,Michael     $12,539,023
76    Rivera,Ruben     $12,264,953
77    Fullmer,Brad     $12,024,056
78    Cora,Alex     $11,428,672
79    Feliz,Pedro     $11,202,686
80    Ankiel,Rick     $10,193,421
81    Guzman,Christian     $9,920,307
82    Torrealba,Yorvit     $9,686,468
83    Estallella,Bobby     $9,514,792
84    Davis,Ben     $9,258,840
85    Gregg,Kevin     $9,105,520
86    Gonzalez,Alex (fla)     $8,725,805
87    Patterson,John     $7,915,028
88    Carter,Quincy     $7,776,570
89    Sanchez,Alex     $7,312,271
90    Scutaro,Marcus     $6,972,591
91    Anderson,Matt     $6,964,172
92    Meadows,Brian     $6,953,554
93    Durbin,Chad     $6,638,027
94    Anderson,Jimmy     $6,627,018
95    Branyan,Russell     $6,486,093
96    Valentien,Javier     $6,349,108
97    Reyes,Dennis     $6,172,901
98    Rose,Brian     $5,958,017
99    Dunwoody,Todd     $5,877,961
100    Giambi,Jeremy     $5,525,396