Top College Players to watch for the 2008 draft

by Team Moneyball on Feb 6, 2008 9:09 PM EST Comment 36 comments

Hey guys we're months away, but I wanted to get peoples' opinions on whom to watch out for this year from the college ranks. How does this class match up against last years? Who are the blue-chippers who are likely to get drafted high in the first round? Is there anyone this year that Matt LaPorte or David Price upside?

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Pedro Alvarez

best college hitter. Likely the #1 pick. Better than anybody that was taken in last years draft.

by nyy601 on Feb 6, 2008 9:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Collegians

ordered only in how they pop in my mind..
Vandy 3b Pedro Alvarez
So. Car. 1b Justin Smoak
Miami 1b Yonder Alonzo
Miami 3b Mark Sobolewski
Tulane RHP Shooter Hunt
UVA RHP Jacob Thompson
UCLA SS Brandon Crawford
Ok St SS Jordy Mercer
UGA SS Gordon Beckham
So. Car. 3b James Darnell
Ariz RHP Ryan Perry and Preston Guilmet
Pepperdine RHP Brett Hunter
San Diego LHP Brian Matzuz
Texas 1b/of Kyle Russell
Texas OF Jordan Danks
Texas Tech OF Roger Kieschnick
East Ky LHP Christian Friedrich
Georgia RHP Josh Fields
Ole Miss LHP Lance Lynn and RHP Cody Satterwhite
FSU (ex-Tenn) SS Tony Delmonico
Miami 2b Jermile Weeks

As for LaPorta upside, he wasn't the best college position player in his own class so I don't see why a comparison to his upside is the important thing...but I might take Smoak or Alvarez over him, along with maybe Brandon Crawford (haven't seen him enough)

by nms on Feb 6, 2008 9:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

as for

top part of the first round..
Matsusz, Alvarez and Smoak seem to be near locks for that territory. Brett Hunter has a good chance. If Ryan Perry is healthy and pitches well his stuff could get him there

by nms on Feb 6, 2008 9:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

High 1st

I have read that San Diego LHP Brian Matusz will go high in the first round. 91-94 mph fastball, good curve, and solid change.

by GammonsIsGod on Feb 7, 2008 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

raben

dennis raben might be the 2nd best prospect on that miami team and you didn't even list him.

i also think cal righty tyson ross should be on there ahead of several of those guys.

by fewgoodcards on Feb 6, 2008 10:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i was just

throwing out the all the names that popped into my head, sheesh.

That being said I can't see Raben as the second-best pro prospect on that team

by nms on Feb 6, 2008 11:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Raben

According to BA he's the #9 college prospect overall.

by TheMike011 on Feb 7, 2008 7:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

eh

thick body, some power, good arm, contact issues.
He is alright to me, but I don't see a package in him that is rare for a college slugger.

But more than anything I only didn't mention him cos I was throwing names off the top of my head.

As far as pure bats go I'd take Alonso, despite his problems, and I like J Weeks by a mile over him. Electrifying player, little less power but a better all around player. He really is the guy that can take over a game at the plate or on the bases.

by nms on Feb 7, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

some other guys

michigan rhp zach putnam
FSU c buster posey
asu c petey paramore
wichita st. rhp aaron shafer
vandy rhp brett jacobson
so car ss/3b reese havens
vandy ss ryan flaherty
wake 1b allan dykstra
uva 2b david adams
asu 1b brett wallace

by fewgoodcards on Feb 7, 2008 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

1B Arizona State

Brett Wallace

by smk1363 on Feb 6, 2008 10:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

hes got some things going for him

but he isn't really being looked at as a first rounder. He's strong, surprisingly athletic and his been a great college hitter but hes really bulky, looked really bad in Omaha and scouts don't love him.
If he can handle third, that would help him a lot

by nms on Feb 6, 2008 10:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My Take

IMO, Alonso is the best hitter in the class, but his D, athleticism and conditioning have been questioned. He made very few errors at 1B last year, but of course there is more to D than errors.

Two more names for hitters: Allen Dykstra of Wake Forest and Brett Wallace of Arizona State. Both first basemen.

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 6, 2008 10:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Addendum

To me, this looks like a much stronger draft for college hitters, about the same for college pitchers, and weaker for HS players.

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 6, 2008 10:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you'd be surprised

at how un-predictive college hitting stats are.

And college 1b/DH types with fancy stats don't have a great track record in particular

by nms on Feb 6, 2008 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

1b/dh

Is that mainly because someone not athletic enough to be anything more than a 1b/dh in college is going to be far from adequate at the majors defensively?

Jack Cust is this year's Marcus Thames

by Team Moneyball on Feb 6, 2008 11:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

moreso

that they have to hit exceedingly well to be worth anything.

by nms on Feb 7, 2008 12:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Study

Isn't there a study showing that 1B draftees have the best track record for MLB success of any position? Hitting is still the most difficult tool/skill to find and develop.

In addition to his college stats, Alonso also tore up the Cape Cod League, a pitcher friendly wood bat league.

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 7, 2008 1:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Study

But wouldn't 1B draftees tend to be thought of as safe bets? They won't move positions, so they either have great bats and no D, or decent bats and some D...seems like a loaded study, since 1B really doesn't account for defense like other positions do.

by killa on Feb 7, 2008 1:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i believe

the study was that college 1B drafted in the first round had the single most positive outcome of any player category in the draft.

the reason for this being, teams hate drafting a one-dimensional slugger with their highest pick, so the only guys who get drafted in the first round are the guys who are 100%, no-doubt, any-monkey-can-see-it going to mash.

so it doesn't work for, say, andy d'alessio or lucas duda. those guys tend to let you down. their college stats look good, but those are the guys who, for whatever reason, scouts aren't positive are going to mash. usually, in the end, they don't.

but this is a big factor in why i like laporta and mills as much as i do.

it applies to a degree for high school as well. people ran down lars anderson because he was supposedly considered a 'supplemental-round talent', but high school 1Bs almost never make the first round. hosmer is the exception. when smoak came out of high school he was also a 'supplemental talent' and nobody would give him a million either. to me a high school 1B who goes in the sandwich is about as good a bet to rake as a toolsy OF who goes in the top half of the first. that's not even a toolsy OF with bat questions, like fairley, i'm talking about the heywards and mccutchens.

by wily mo on Feb 7, 2008 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the study

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4836

(BP subscriber only)

the findings actually hold true for the first 3 rounds of the draft, but the sample size for 2nd-round college 1Bs is very small, and the 3rd-round college 1Bs are heavily affected by john olerud, who was a 1st-round talent who dropped only due to signability.

incidentally, the same study found that HS 1Bs are actually among the worst values in the draft:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4429

by jpahk on Feb 7, 2008 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chicken and Egg

Let's see, college 1B drafted in the first round do well, but that's because they were good enough to draft in the first round?

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 7, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the problem is

there is a selection bias in the study.

Its kind of like saying Harvard and Yale graduates have great jobs and makes lots of money. Well, yes, they do, but you are looking at a sample that self-selects towards the very best anyways.. so of course the results are going to look like they do

by nms on Feb 7, 2008 7:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh Brother!

Look, all we're saying is that if you have a good bat, there's no reason to shy away from them just because they play 1B. If you are saying you should take college stats with a grain of salt, I agree, but I believe that is true for all college hitters, not just first basemen.

As for Yonder Alonso, it's not just his great college stats, it's his performance in Cape Cod league as well as scouting reports that say he might be the best college bat this year. The only rap I have been able to dig up on him is a possible lack of D and conditioning, but he did have an excellent fielding % at 1B.

BTW, you might want to look up Pedro Alvarez' fielding % from last season before you go counting him as a third baseman.

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 7, 2008 8:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I still like Smoak the most from this 1B class

He tore up the Cape last year but obviously struggled this summer with Team USA.

by jfish26101 on Feb 9, 2008 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Last year as in '06

by jfish26101 on Feb 9, 2008 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Question for NMS

What sites do you use to track college baseball players(if you don't mind sharing)?

by smittybanton on Feb 7, 2008 11:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

websites

www.collegebaseballprospects.net/
www.thecollegebaseballblog.com/
www.pgcrosschecker.com/2008/toptenlists/january/week1.aspx
www.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/cs-m-basebl-body.html
www.collegebaseballinsider.com/
www.brewerfan.net/ViewDraftArchive.do?draftId=6

by sungod7 on Feb 7, 2008 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

baseballamerica.com

has a good amount of free stuff. Their college blog, three strikes (weekend recap), weekend preview and their chats are very informative.

PGCrosschecker.com is GREAT, but most of it is paid content.
They are the scouting website associate with Perfect Game USA, a major scouting service that runs showcases and camps. Lots of college coach use them to look at HS players to recruit

Brewerfan is a free site run by Patrick Ebert, who works with PG, and he will throw lots of his thoughts on guys in there.

CSTV and school's websites are good.

My favorite part about BA's stuff is that they do the best job covering college baseball as its own sport, and not just another minor league.
Some of my favorite college players are guys that aren't prospects really..just goodass ballplayers.

Rivals.com's college baseball section and SEBaseball.com have some really good stuff, but it is stuff geared more towards covering college baseball competition rather than as prospect coverage.

My favorite way to cover college baseball is by going to the game. I am lucky enough to live near several different quality programs and get to go to a fair amount of games. They are a blast.
I also usually manage to watch Team USA (summer college all-star team) most years.

by nms on Feb 7, 2008 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks!

by smittybanton on Feb 12, 2008 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

De La Oso?

Any thoughts on this Vandy(?) SS/OF?

by cooper7d7 on Feb 7, 2008 2:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I like him

He probably isn't as good a hitter as he was this year (he outhit Alvarez), but hell he might be.
He was well-liked enough out of HS for someone to spend a late round flyer on him and he has shown consistant offensive improvement at Vandy and he played well on the Cape.

He is a five-tool guy but not necessarily a guy with lots of plus tools. He has a very rounded skill set, some power, some speed, good arm, ect.

He has played the infield and the outfield and if probably a RF or 3b but I have heard a scout say he could handle up the middle.

I took him in the 5th round of the minorleagueball.com user draft but he fell farther in real life because of signability issues (which is rare for a college junior to have)

by nms on Feb 7, 2008 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Let's see what you our viewers have to say...

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2008/1/11/133724/046

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/3/17/182839/040

by cooper7d7 on Feb 7, 2008 2:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

UVA guys I've seen

UVA 2b David Adams was a potential first few round guy out of high school but fell due to a hard UVA commitment.
He has shown a solid line-drive swing with plate discipline and gap power at UVA. I think he can really hit for average.
His defense is solid, though he might be more of a 3b than 2b and his body is more 3b than 2nd.

Two more UVA guys..
SS Greg Miclat isn't a top prospect at all (5-8 155, plus missed tons of last year with a bum shoulder and wrist) but I really would like to take a flyer on him. Hits the ball HARD up the middle, solid D at SS when healthy, can steal bases and draw walks.

Their 3b Farrell is a good athlete, son of the Indian's SD, good frame and power potential. Health is a question.

I've already mentioned their ace Thompson.

by nms on Feb 7, 2008 3:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

FSU catcher

Buster Posey was a top RHP/SS prospect out of HS in south Georgia. Most liked him a little more on the mound but he really emerged as a freshman at FSU at third and then moved behind the plate as a sophomore.
Hits for a good average, with gap power. Suprisingly lower HR numbers but has the skill and frame to impove that. Strong armed and athletic, though not especially fast or rangy which is part of why he moved to catcher. He could handle third fine but after his freshman year FSU needed a C and his coach thought he wasn't a true SS but he would be more of a draftee as a C than a 3b.

By the way, this will be the second year in a row FSU will bring in a transfer for one year to play SS. A top program like that really needs to find some stability there

by nms on Feb 7, 2008 3:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ex-Winthrop RHP Alex Wilson

has transferred to Texas A/M for his junior year.
He will sit out most or all of it with TJ surgery but will be picked as a flier by someone.

Hes only 6-foot 185ish but has very good stuff. His fastball was 91-94 when I saw it but he was pretty gassed. It has gotten up to 96.
He has a VERY good slider and had put up two great years for Winthrop.

One of my favorite college baseball players, hes a hell of nice, humble kid, and a guy who will be a really interesting gamble.

by nms on Feb 7, 2008 3:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Cal pitcher...

Tyson Ross. I played against him in high school ball. He is very tall and pitches at a good downward plane. In high school he hit 91-93 consistently and i'm not sure if he has added any velocity. When i last saw him his breaking ball was a work in progress but showed flashes of being atleast an average pitch. I have seen a few places that he is a top 5 college arm in the draft this year and definate 1st round pick. What do you guys know about him?

by deadboy on Feb 8, 2008 1:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

ross

he hasn't added any velocity as he still pitches at 91-93 and that is what slides him down a little. he looks like a power pitcher, but he is more of a finesse guy. some think he could add some more velocity if he used his body a little more instead of landing straight up, but it is hard to completely rework a delivery this late.

by fewgoodcards on Feb 8, 2008 12:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs