Matt Wieters verus Jason Varitek

by dmitri on Feb 6, 2008 7:23 PM EST Comment 28 comments

I see Matt Wieters compared a lot to Jason Varitek, which is not surprising since they both are switch-hitting catchers from Georgia Tech.

Varitek has had a decent career but has never hit .300 and never hit more than 25 HR is a season.

Do you think Wieters' major league career will be comparable to Varitek's, or will Wieters be a better hitter?

Poll

Will Matt Wieters Be Better Than Varitek?

Yes - Wieters will have a number of sesaons hitting .300+ with 30+ HR

90 votes

No - Wieters' carrer will be comparable to Varitek's.

63 votes

153 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 28 comments

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Comments

I love Wieter's swing

He has a great power swing while Varitek's swing is... not as good as his. I think unless horrible thign happens, he will be capable of being a good hitter

by shakezula on Feb 6, 2008 7:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Varitek

Was a pretty highly regarded guy in his day.

I think O's fans would be extremely happy if Weiters had a Varitek career(WS rings not included).

I think Wieters has a bit more raw power, but its so hard to say with catching prospects what theyll become... I have to say comparable, just on sheer odds/attrition rates.

Bear in mind that neither answer above is any kind of insult though... its a question of whether Wieters is good or HOF good. How about this question:

Who will Matt Wieters most resemble: Jason Varitek or Jorge Posada?

by alskor on Feb 6, 2008 7:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If you pick yes

you are basically saying he will be the best catacher ever. He will be really good but I think more like .280 and 25 homers.

by nyy601 on Feb 6, 2008 7:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

name me some catchers who have had .300/30+ HR years. I can name one, and his catching defensively consistently stunk. The constant squatting and beating he will take behind the plate will hurt his numbers. If you want those numbers, you better hope he moves to another position

by dlpme77 on Feb 6, 2008 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

missed something in my post

meant consistent .300/30+ HR season. I understand there have been a few who have had one..but many?

by dlpme77 on Feb 6, 2008 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mike Piazza

Piazza comes to mind, as someone who did it with consistency, and Roy Campanella was a good bet as well.... Berra and Bench both cleared the bar, or came close a number of times, but not with regularity.

When I first started this post, I expected to be able to rattle off 4-5 inner circle HOF type guys who had cleared the bar with regularity. It's just not the case. Rather, 300/30 seems to be closer to the prime of a player. So, there ARE players who were able to have to have multiple 300-30 seasons, but with regularity? It seems only Mike Piazza could be counted on for that sort of production.

One thing to think about is that even adjusting for era (and I've been too lazy to do so), I'd imagine that the offense friendly game of today still would not push any more than a few (figure Berra, Bench, Campy, Carter, Dickey) into that rarified air for the whole of their primes. Likewise, the minor deflation since the so-called "end" of the steroid era still wouldn't push piazza below the 300/30 threshold for his prime years (which took place in the steroid era, and may have been PED aided).

One thing I am curious about is what you mean by over the course of his career. Do you just mean "in his prime" (say, 28-32, when production peaks) or during his years as an effective player (which could mean 24-35)? Because sustaining that sort of production over the run of a whole career would be a ticket into the HOF, no doubt. If Weiters can produce for his prime at a consistent 300/30HR level, he's a great player. If he does that for most of his career, he's a Hall of Famer.

by GuyinNY on Feb 6, 2008 9:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is there a middle ground?

I think Wieters has a shot at having a better career than Varitek, but I doubt he will have multiple .300, 30+ HR seasons.

I do think a lot of people are overrating Varitek. He didn't make the majors until he was 26, and he had a very short peak from age 31-33. He's already in his decline phase and his defense is nothing special.

If Wieters doesn't have a good chance at bettering Varitek's career, then he's not a top prospect.

by dkdc on Feb 6, 2008 7:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

what?

the guy had three great years, two good ones, and another decent one as a catcher. And contrary to what you say had a good defensive rep and an great pitcher-handling one.
You have delusional expectations of a prospect if you think a guy has to have a good chance of beating that to be a top prospect.

by nms on Feb 6, 2008 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree

It's not delusional at all.

Take a look at this study linked earlier, and run Varitek through the process.

50% of prospects ranked in the top 10 by Baseball America and 35% of prospects ranked 11-25 by Baseball America outperformed Varitek in their first 6 seasons (which are the only seasons guaranteed to be under club control).

I think 35-50% qualifies as a "good chance". Much of Wieters value as a prospect comes from scenarios where he hits that ceiling, not from scenarios where he settles into a Varitek-like career.

by dkdc on Feb 6, 2008 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm thinking

That study would be more pertinent to this discussion if it were focusing upon catchers. It's one thing when you compare catchers to one another, but a whole different game when you compare them to hitters in general (i.e. RF, 1B, 3B...).

"A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day." - Calvin

by RVachon on Feb 7, 2008 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree on overrating Varitek

First off pitch calling isnt a skill. The bench does it.

Varitek had 3 very good seasons, one of which was star level.

I think Weiters has a good chance of being better then Varitek but he wont hit 300+ 30 homers consistently. If he hits .270/.350 with 25+ a year that is a better player then varitek. In Varitek's best year he was barely a top 5 catcher. I think offensively Weiters has the potential to be consistently top 5 catcher in baseball. I think Posada would be a better comparison, I see Posada numbers with a tad more power and a tad less plate discipline.

Now as for Varitek's defense, he is a bad thrower. Very poor. Has never thrown out more then 28%. In his best year (2002) he was second to last, beating out only Mike Piazza.

Varitek is an average hitter, poor fielder. People constantly overrate him due to his pitch calling.

by Kanst42 on Feb 6, 2008 10:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Throwing %

Not the most important stat in measuring a catcher defensively. For starters, there's alot more to catching than throwing out runners, such as framing pitches, settling the pitcher, blocking, etc. Second, throwing % is selective. If a catcher has a great rep, only great baserunners will go on him, so we can assume his % will be lower. I haven't checked the numbers, but I'd assume that Varitek has a below-average number of attempted steals against. And even then, the stats are still effected deeply by who's pitching, because that will go a long way to determining whether or not the runner goes.

Tek has a great reputation, and scouts seem to agree that in his prime, he was an excellent defensive catcher. He remains a good-very good one, by most accounts. If Weiters has career play out like Jason Varitek's, he'll have done very well.

by GuyinNY on Feb 6, 2008 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Absolutely correct on throwing %. IIRC, back in the Jimy Williams days Red Sox pitchers were instructed not to use a slide-step when delivering to the plate. As a result, runners received extra time breaking for second.

And as GuyinNY points out, the numbers will be affected based upon who is pitching, how hard they throw, what their mitt-to-mitt time is, etc.

You can certainly debate in many ways the pluses and minuses of Varitek's catching, but using throwing % isn't an especially solid way to go about it.

"A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day." - Calvin

by RVachon on Feb 7, 2008 12:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eh

I do agree that Varitek's intagibles are generally overrated, but I still think youre way underselling the guy here.

by alskor on Feb 6, 2008 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also

Tek's OBP is a major asset you seem to underrating. Lets use VORP and rank him among MLB catchers each year:

YEAR: Rank VORP

5th 23.4
33rd 2.8 HURT
2nd 39.6
5th 39.1
7th 32.9
9th 16.6
8th 15.9
31st 4.6
10th 21.3
30th 4.3 (Split with Hatteberg who was 6th with 22.9. Tek only had 247 PA)

Basically, what Im saying is that youre way off. Varitek has been very, very good. It would be defying the odds for Wieters to surpass his career in all honesty. Take defense out of the equation(and I am in no way conceding he's a bad defender - I believe he is actually a very good to excellent defensive catcher) and Tek has won the Red Sox many game over his career.

There is simply no way to construe the player seen above as an "average hitter."

As for your assertion that the bench calls the game... well, Tek calls the game in Boston, and while that is done in some towns, most teams let the catcher call the game in my experience. Maybe its an NL thing Im not familiar with.

by alskor on Feb 6, 2008 11:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Let me be even clearer

Of course pitch calling is a skill! The problem is we have no reliable way of measuring it.

by alskor on Feb 6, 2008 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you are right

I don't know where he got the idea the bench calls the game. The pitching coach might come up with a game plan but the catcher and pitcher decide on each pitch.

Benchs calling games stops in college or low minors.
Some college catchers even call their own games, I think Fullerton does this alot

by nms on Feb 6, 2008 11:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, its not unheard of, just unusual

Ive seen managers call a game before. Im having trouble thinking of one right now. I think Lou Pinella might have done it for awhile in Tampa. Ive definitely seen it done. Its far from the norm though. Typically the catcher calls the game. I know that in Arizona at least Curt Schilling would call his own games, but actually allowed Varitek to call the games when he got traded b/c he enjoyed working with him so much.

Its a very important skill in a catcher obviously. Its just hard to measure it so its difficult to account for it when evaluating players... even more so because pretty much every major league catcher HAS to be competent at pitch calling or they simply wont be afforded a chance to catch at all.

Given the anecdotal evidence its clear that the vast majority of Varitek's peers believe him to be an excellent pitch caller, if not the best in the game, and have believed that he has been for a long time.

BUT my main point, is that the defense issue aside, Varitek has been one of the better offensive catchers in the game over the last decade. I think the stats bear that out. Im certain he's been among the top 5 catchers in MLB more than once.

by alskor on Feb 7, 2008 12:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If memory serves

Varitek was one of, if not the most highly touted catcher prospect of the past 30 years so I don't think that they can be compared (Mauer is the only other guy that comes to mind). Folks thought that Varitek's ceiling was even higher than what we view Wieters as now. However, being a successful backstop is more about the intangibles than the quantifiables, as Varitek has shown.

That said, I expect Wieters to be a power hitter that has one or two avg. spikes into the .300 range but will be a career .270 hitter that averages 20-25 HR/year for his career. So in short a borderline HOFer if his career lasts (which I don't think it will).

by Sage Sam on Feb 6, 2008 8:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

possible but...

a successful career is about luck too. and health, both of which are hard to really project

by RollingWave on Feb 7, 2008 12:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Will Wieters stay behind the Dish?

If he is capable of being a 300/30 player does it make sense for Baltimore to keep him behind the plate??

He is 6'5" 240 lbs. That's a lot of load on the knees. Mauer is 6'5" and has already had microfracture surgery on his knee and is high risk to be moved to another position.

The O's play in a DH league and have no studs at 1B.

Fat Man is no more, Hinges burst off Heaven's door, Come on in, says Bill

by KABOOM on Feb 7, 2008 8:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mauer?

Microfracture, when? Link?

by cooper7d7 on Feb 7, 2008 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If he stays at catcher

I suspect he'll be very similar. Crouching like that saps the power out of a big guy. If for whatever reason the O's decide to move him to 3rd or 1st, then I could see him hitting .300/30HR seasons.

Varitek was one of the top 5 catchers in the majors for a half a decade. The O's should be happy if he can have that kind of success. However, I suspect he'll make it to the majors sooner than Tek, which should increase his value some.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 7, 2008 10:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

varitek

couple of random items.

(1) as has been noted, varitek was a monster prospect out of college. his stats were ridiculous. he's had a very good pro career, but as a sox fan, when he was coming into his prime, it always felt like there was another level in him that he just never quite reached.

(2) but we might have been kidding ourselves about that.

(3) varitek's swing(s) is (are) really ugly. does that explain why he never hit the offensive ceiling his college career suggested? i don't know. (eric van always argued that he had a sleep disorder, but that's a thread for another day.)

(4) i don't think wieters will hit .300/30. as has been pointed out, nobody does that as a catcher unless he's piazza, and wieters sounds like he's more hitter than slugger anyway. i think he can have good at-bats and put up homer totals that start with a 2. you do that and play good catcher, you're an all-star easily, and probably a hall of famer if you do it long enough. which is really hard.

by wily mo on Feb 7, 2008 10:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

BA & KG

From BA's draft preview...

...plus-plus raw power at his suburban Charleston, S.C., high school, Wieters is well on his way to fulfilling the lofty projections on his bat. He's batted in the heart of Georgia Tech's batting order... He commands the strike zone, displaying patience and pitch recognition. When he gets his pitch, he can use his plus bat speed to pull it out of the park, or keep his hands inside it and line it to the opposite field. A natural righthanded hitter, his swing is shorter from the right and he tends to work up the middle more as a righthanded hitter. He prefers to pull and has more power from the left. He could post averages near .280 with 30-homer potential in the big leagues.

From KG's O's Top 11...

A big switch-hitter with the rare combination of contact skills and pole-to-pole plus power. Outstanding pitch recognition.
Perfect World Projection: The rare backstop who hits in the middle of a batting order.

by cooper7d7 on Feb 7, 2008 3:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You do realize

If you didnt tell us that was Wieters that easily could have been Jason Varitek's exact scouting reports, right?

by alskor on Feb 7, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wasn't trying to make a point

, just inform.

BTW, if it was 'Tek's scouting report, it would have mentioned that he was the second best hitter in Tech's lineup behind Jay Payton.

by cooper7d7 on Feb 7, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think there is a key disconnect here

Having seen Wieters a ton I whole heartedly agree he has the potential to hit .300 or 30 homers... maybe even both sometimes.

Wieters also has the potential to be a major league defensive catcher. The size is unusual, and could be problematic, but he is athletic and nimble for his size, has a CANNON of an arm (94mph heat as GTs closer), and seems to be able to take control on the field.

The problem is that, with the nature of catching, it is very unlikely that these two possibilities can co-exist.

Wieters is almost as good as it gets as far as college hitting prospects go - I like him tons more than Alvarez - but the odds of him becoming a .300/30 guy behind the plate are so rare because it simply happens so rarely. Its not that he doesn't have the talent to, it just doesn't happen

by nms on Feb 7, 2008 3:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs