The Top Prospects of 2000

by John Sickels on Feb 6, 2008 3:49 PM EST in News Comment 47 comments

Reviewing the Top Prospect List from the Year 2000

Corey Patterson, OF: 69 career win shares. Not the star expected but an OK player.
Rick Ankiel, LHP: You all know his story.
Pat Burrell, OF: 142 career win shares.
Vernon Wells, OF: 122 career win shares.
Nick Johnson, 1B: 80 career win shares. Solid but injury prone.
Dee Brown, OF: Huge Bust. Never able to replicate minor league success.
Kip Wells, RHP: 52 career win shares.
Ben Petrick, C: Had a little success (6 win shares) but career ended early, Parkinson's Disease
Sean Burroughs, 3B: 38 career win shares. Never developed the power scouts expected.
Mike Cuddyer, 3B: 60 career win shares, a solid player.
D'Angelo Jimenez, INF: 67 career win shares. Good plate discipline wasn't enough.
Ruben Mateo, OF: Career ruined by broken leg, loss of confidence, and shaky discipline.
Brad Penny, RHP: 83 career win shares.
Chin-feng Chen, OF: Topped out as a Triple-A slugger.
Rafael Furcal, SS: 161 career win shares.
Eric Gagne, RHP: 77 career win shares. Had run as one of the best closers in history.
Matt Riley, LHP: Ruined by injuries and control problems.
Hee Seop Choi, 1B: Has vanished. 26 career win shares. I suspect his career could have gone much differently.
Wilfredo Rodriguez, LHP: Ruined by injuries.
Ed Yarnall, LHP: Topped out in Triple-A, had some success in Japan.
Ramon Ortiz, RHP: 51 career win shares.
Ryan Anderson, LHP: Ruined by injuries.
Alfonso Soriano, SS: 157 career wins shares.
John Patterson, RHP: 19 career win shares, has been effective when healthy.
Milton Bradley, OF: 80 career win shares.
Jesus Colome, RHP: 20 career win shares.
Ramon Hernandez, C: 116 career win shares.
Peter Bergeron, OF: Bust, never hit past Triple-A.
Abraham Nunez, OF: Tools bust and an Age-Gate player, decent Triple-A outfielder.
Matt LeCroy, C: 36 career win shares.
Mike Lamb, 3B: 59 career win shares.
Josh Hamilton, OF: 13 win shares last year, nice comeback.
Tony Armas, JR, RHP: 33 career win shares.
Aaron Myette, RHP: Topped out in Triple-A due to command problems.
Jack Cust, OF: 23 win shares last year, nice comeback.
Francisco Cordero, RHP: 71 career win shares.
A.J. Burnett, RHP: 72 career win shares.
Luis Rivera, RHP: Sleeper prospect never woke up then got hurt.
Junior Guerrero, RHP: Lost 5 MPH off his fastball in 2000 and never recovered.
Drew Henson, 3B: Tools Bust.
Chad Hermansen, OF: Tools Bust.
Mike Restovich, OF: Very good Triple-A slugger has never received a fair major league trial.
Lance Berkman, OF: 209 career win shares.
Wes Anderson, RHP: Ruined by injuries.
Adam Dunn, OF: 144 career win shares.
Ben Broussard, OF: 52 career win shares.
Chip Ambres, OF: Good tools, slowed by injuries, effective Triple-A player.
Josh Beckett, RHP: 73 career win shares.
Adam Piatt, 3B: Hit .248/.323/.422 in 521 major league at-bats before being ruined by injuries.
Travis Dawkins, SS: Great glove, can't hit.

Injuries ruined several pitchers as usual, but also impacted hitters such as Mateo and Piatt. I think you can count Petrick as an injury casualty as well due to the Parkinson's. I still think Choi could have had a career if he'd been handled differently. I also believe that in an alternate universe somewhere Mike Restovich and Chip Ambres have major league jobs and are doing well. Both are proven Triple-A successes who have never received legitimate trials.

Ranking them by current win shares is a bit premature since we don't yet know what will happen with guys like Ankiel, Cust, and Hamilton. But it's interesting to look at it this way:

CREAM OF THE 2000 CROP
Lance Berkman, OF: 209 career win shares.
Rafael Furcal, SS: 161 career win shares.
Alfonso Soriano, SS: 157 career wins shares.
Adam Dunn, OF: 144 career win shares.
Pat Burrell, OF: 142 career win shares.
Vernon Wells, OF: 122 career win shares.
Ramon Hernandez, C: 116 career win shares.
Brad Penny, RHP: 83 career win shares
Milton Bradley, OF: 80 career win shares.
Nick Johnson, 1B: 80 career win shares
Eric Gagne, RHP: 77 career win shares.
Josh Beckett, RHP: 73 career win shares.
A.J. Burnett, RHP: 72 career win shares.
Francisco Cordero, RHP: 71 career win shares.
Corey Patterson, OF: 69 career win shares
D'Angelo Jimenez, INF: 67 career win shares
Mike Cuddyer, 3B: 60 career win shares
Mike Lamb, 3B: 59 career win shares.
Ben Broussard, OF: 52 career win shares.
Kip Wells, RHP: 52 career win shares.
Ramon Ortiz, RHP: 51 career win shares.
Sean Burroughs, 3B: 38 career win shares.
Matt LeCroy, C: 36 career win shares.
Tony Armas, JR, RHP: 33 career win shares.
Hee Seop Choi, 1B: 26 career win shares.
Jack Cust, OF: 23 win shares last year
Jesus Colome, RHP: 20 career win shares.
John Patterson, RHP: 19 career win shares
Josh Hamilton, OF: 13 win shares last year

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Comments

Soriano and Burrell

I love that most people view Soriano as a superstar and Burrell as a failure (somewhat) and they have nearly the same win shares. I don't necessarily mean most of the people here, rather most media and fans in general.

by marcello on Feb 6, 2008 4:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Personally

I love seeing Dunn and Burrell so close on the Win Share list, since they are essentially the same player. And I don't think that even on this board people get that.

by Yakker on Feb 6, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

I think people rip on Pat because he is such an asshole, not entirely based on what he does on the field.

He could DH for me anytime

by ScottAZ on Feb 6, 2008 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dunn

is usually a solidly better hitter. One can pick and choose what defensive stats one wants to use to evaluate their total value, but there is much uncertainty in defensive stats. The bottom line is both are crap gloves, but Dunn has a better bat.

Dunn can kinda, sorta steal bases too.. but thats not why anyone has ever employed him

by nms on Feb 6, 2008 8:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

Dunn is a better hitter, but not by as much as some might think. Both are low BA, high OBP, high SLG hitters, though SLG is where you see the biggest advantage for Dunn (and OBP is where Burrell tends to shine).

However, Dunn is generally considered (on this board and elsewhere) as a tremendous player, while Burrell is generally considered a malcontent who is overpaid.

And yet:

-- Dunn (2007): .248/.386/.554 (940 OPS)
-- Burrell (2007): .256/.400/.502 (902 OPS)

-- Dunn (2006): .234/.365/.490 (855 OPS)
-- Burrell (2006): .258/.388/.502 (890 OPS)

Oh, and as for consistency?

Dunn's OPS+ the last 3 years: 141, 114, 136
Burrell's OPS+ the last 3 years: 128, 122, 127

This is not to say I prefer Burrell to Dunn. I don't. As you say, both are poor fielders, and Dunn is a better hitter. Plus, he's younger. However, IMO the differences aren't so great as to justify their varying treatment by both mainstream and blog nation fans, and when I saw their WS totals so close together, it amused me.

by Yakker on Feb 6, 2008 9:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

um

Dunn has been blasted a ton for being lazy, crappy on D and striking out too much... just like Burrell.

I'd say the cause for their different treatment is the fact that Philly fans are a-holes and Cincy fans arent and, mostly, the fact that Philly is a bigger city with a more vindictive pres and thus Burrell's struggles get more attention locally and nationally.

by nms on Feb 6, 2008 9:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

I haven't heard nearly the same complaints about Dunn as Burrell, but, if you have, that's fine.

If, as you say, the reason for their disparate treatment is not perceived offensive production but rather the Philly press, I suppose that just proves my original point.

by Yakker on Feb 7, 2008 2:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Burrell

has had one full season more of starts to rack up win shares and still trails. Plus, Soriano has been a better ballplayer than Burrell almost every year and is a much more well rounded baseball player than Burrell.

Their career OPS+s are just two points off but Soriano has spent most of his career as a decent to bad second baseman, and played left field very well (where as Burrell has been only a poor to bad LF and a little 1b). Soriano also, obviously, has a massive, massive baserunning advantage

by nms on Feb 6, 2008 8:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Backwards

Soriano has had one more season than Burrell. He's also had about 500 more ABs.

by Yakker on Feb 6, 2008 9:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no, i said

Burrell has one full more season than Soriano. I'm not counting Sori's two cups of coffee where he combined for 58 ABs.

Burrell has played one more full major league years than Sori.

The at-bats thing is largely covered by the fact that Burrell has walked over 400 times more..thus fewer ABs.

by nms on Feb 6, 2008 9:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

PA

They have basically the same PA over their careers.

by marcello on Feb 6, 2008 11:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Soriano has spent most of his career as a decent t

Soriano has spent most of his career as a decent to bad second baseman

Uh no, he's spent most of his career being a bad to horrendous 2B before playing a surprisingly decent LF

by Johnny Ruin on Feb 8, 2008 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Great Comment

In pure hitting terms I would rather have Burrell than Soriano based on the fact that his OBP roughly 60 points higher over the last 3 seasons (Soriano- .309, .351, .337 to Burrell- .389, .388, .400). Soriano does run better, field better, and his slugging over the same time period is roughly 40 points higher. So Soriano's overall value is higher but in pure hitting terms I'll take the 60 points in OBP over 40 points in SLG any day of the week (as would just about everyone). In fact I would even taken Burrell despite Soriano's SBs. The only reason I would have to take Soriano is because Burrell is so atrocious in the field. But over the last 3 seasons I think Burrell has proven himself to be a decent bit more valuable to a lineup.

Philly fans hate him because they think he should be better after watching his 2002 season and the way that he can look like one of the best hitters in baseball sometimes, like he did in the second half this year 295/420/590. And the fact that he often looks terrible at the plate with some truly ghastly swings at breaking balls (I might have to make a YouTube clip of Pat Burrell's worst strikeouts someday). However, if Burrell continues to produce like has over the last 3 years the Phils offense would sorely miss him, much moreso than Rowand and possibly moreso than Rollins (Again offense not team), if the front office lets him go after this season. I have tried defend Burrell over the last few years to other Phillies fans that I speak to but I have deemed it an impossible task. The Philadelphia media, I'm looking at you Bill Conlin and Howard Eskin, have brainwashed everyone.

FJM, down in the trenches doing the Lord's work.

by zdavis2512 on Feb 9, 2008 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Semi Related Comment

Does anyone else feel old and depressed whenever these lists resurface? I clearly remember when the likes of Matt Riley and Ed Yarnall were considered prospects, it seems like last week.

It just serves as a stark and frigid reminder that our existence is finite; we are as temporary as farts in the wind.

by SmokeyJoeWood on Feb 6, 2008 4:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hee Seop Choi

John, I'd love for you to expand on your comment that Choi's career could have gone differently. Is he someone who just never got a fair chance, whose skills were underappreciated by his managers, or was he just not good enough? It seemed like he did get a couple of decent opportunities which is a couple more than a lot of players get and he just came up a bit short.

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 6, 2008 4:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

re

Choi had two strikes against him from the start. Remember the backlash and the booing he got when he replaced Mark Grace at 1b for the Cubs? That is a tough environment for a 23 year old to enter the Bigs on.

He went to the Marlins the next year and did very well, .270/.388/.495 line. Then he was traded yet again (3 trades before age 25) to the Dodgers and kind of fizzled out.

by ScottAZ on Feb 6, 2008 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

great deal for the cubs

they got lee for choi

by Wheelhouse on Feb 6, 2008 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ehh

He didn't get the boos until he started sucking.

by killa on Feb 7, 2008 1:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Which was when, exactly?

In a cup of coffee at age 23 he wasn't good. At age 24 he was ok. Then they got rid of him. It wasn't like he busted out and then got booed. Grace dogged the guy on his way out of town and meatball Chicago fans didn't give the new guy a chance.

by thejd44 on Feb 7, 2008 2:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

alternate universe choi

what's the difference, really, between choi and carlos pena? the book is not closed yet, at least not necessarily.

by jpahk on Feb 6, 2008 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Considering that

Choi is now back playing in Korea (and Chen-Chin Feng is back in Taiwan too, where he's abosalutely Mark McGwuiring the league .. easiy leading in win shares and basically contend for the triple crown in both season there ) I'd think the books pretty closed on them.

Though it would be nice to do a prospect retro on guys like Choi and Chen, two guys that obviously had talents but didn't make it.

by RollingWave on Feb 6, 2008 11:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chin-feng Chen

To say that either of these guys didn't make it implies it was their own doing, when in actuality it was the incompetence of their ball clubs. Choi has been talked about enough before. However, even John saying that Chin-feng Chen topped out as a AAA slugger is a bit dismissive of the fact that he was only given 22 at bats in 19 games over 4 seasons, hardly enough to qualify as a cup of coffee. With the numbers he had put up in the minors, he should have received a more extended chance at proving himself in the majors. Instead, he decided that such a chance wasn't going to happen, and instead went back to Taiwan and, as later noted, is an absolute monster. I think he could have at least been an average outfielder, but more than likely a bit above average.

by cookiedabookie82 on Feb 7, 2008 10:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not with it

I don't know about the alternate universe, but from what I remember, HSC had a HUUUGE hole in a LOOONG swing, which was exposed by major league pitchers. I guess if a minor league coach had shortened his swing, he could've fared better. I'm not sure it was fixable though.

by killa on Feb 7, 2008 1:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

choi

Statistically Choi came out as a slightly above average hitter (OPS +106) in his major league career through age 26. He wasn't great obviously, but he was not a bum and with more experience he could have improved.

by John Sickels on Feb 7, 2008 9:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the ones that didn't make it

Who are the big successes that were left off of the list? It's one thing to see the list and see how the players fared, but it's another thing to compare the guys on the list to the guys who were left off of it.

by sabernar on Feb 6, 2008 5:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

As a Reds fan

I think Jim Bowden had and still has a huge hard on for this class. He tried to basically acquire everyone on this list.
Nick Johnson
D'Angelo Jimenez
Ruben Mateo
Brad Penny
Ed Yarnall
Alfonso Soriano(Pokey Reese for Soriano turned down. Late aquired in WAS)
John Patterson
Jesus Colome
Drew Henson
Adam Dunn
Ben Broussard
And Barry Larkin's Replacement -Gookie Dawkins!

by kennythered on Feb 6, 2008 7:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

161 Winshares?

Rafael Furcal has more than Pat Burrell, Alfonso Soriano, Adam Dunn? Did that seem odd to anybody else? I mean, he isn't bad, but he has a .756 OPS for his career. For reference, Adam Dunn has a .900. Granted, steals and defense play a factor - but still.

by OldProspects on Feb 6, 2008 8:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Furcal

has played for 1 to 1.5 more seasons than Dunn and about one more than Sori. As for Burrell, Furcal is simply a better player

Like you said, defense, position and baserunning matter and Furcal is a solid hitter who is very good at those other things.

by nms on Feb 6, 2008 9:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He's not a solid hitter

His OPS+ for his career is 94, making him a slightly below-average hitter. When one takes into account his position, he is not below average, but remains an unremarkable person at the plate. It is true that he does steal many bases, but to suggest that this counteracts the significantly superior hitting of the other people I mentioned, including Burrell, seems rather hard to believe. For reference, according to Baseballreference, the people with the highest similarity scores are Bobby Avila, Randy Velarde, and Fred Dunlap (full disclosure: Jimmy Rollins is 5th). Surely Dunn and Soriano, as well as Burrell are better than him.

by OldProspects on Feb 7, 2008 12:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

aaaand

he is an exceptional shortstop instead of a poor left fielder.

Plus, while career averages penalize a guy for poor years at the start of his career Win Shares. It is more about what positive contributions a guy has made. From 03-06 he averaged over 100 in OPS+ with around 35 steals with great defense at the most defensive position

by nms on Feb 7, 2008 12:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Out of curiosity

What are you using to describe Furcal as an outstanding fielder? I'm always looking for a good defensive stat, but the ones that I do glance at don't suggest that. His fielding percentage is slightly lower than the league average (.966 to .972 - not terrible, but not exceptional either). He does have an above average range factor (per 9 innings 4.89 to 4.48) - this seems to suggest an above average fielder, but not an all-time great.

by OldProspects on Feb 7, 2008 2:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Visually

Not the answer to your question, but I've watched Furcal play a ton over the years. He's got good range, but he often makes up for his somewhat sloppy defense with an absolutely amazing arm.

BTW, I'm with you that his arm doesn't push him much past very good for me.

by Yakker on Feb 7, 2008 2:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

amazing

if you don't mind a pretty good percentage of those throws going amazingly high

seriously, though -- i have trouble believing his arm is break-even in terms of actual value over the "average" shortstop's arm given how many throwing errors he makes. and i'm not someone who usually cares much about errors.

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 7, 2008 4:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

Yeah, Furcal's never been a stickler for accuracy. But man, what a cannon!

I would be interested in seeing some metrics on Furcal's arm, but I do think that it is above break-even. But that's really just a WAG.

by Yakker on Feb 7, 2008 1:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

great range

80 arm, quick hands and reflexes.

Error=prone sometimes, yes. His overall defensive package is something few shortstops I currently see match.
I never said he was an all-time great, by the way.

Fielding pct and range factor don't mean much

by nms on Feb 7, 2008 4:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and I woul consider

94 OPS+ solid for a SS

by nms on Feb 7, 2008 12:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OPS...

is a stat which lends more to power hitters who walk a lot. Using just that one stat to compare different types of players is deceiving. By comparison, what is Ichiro's OPS+ for the last five years or so (And I am really asking, I don't know)?

I don't like any stat that compares lead-off type hitters to your 3-5 mashers. It's like red apples and green apples. Sure they are basically the same, but they are also completely different.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Feb 7, 2008 1:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Um

guys who get on base more and hit for more power are better (offensive) players. It's absolutely fair to compare them to lesser players.

by thejd44 on Feb 7, 2008 2:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

his point is

the WAY OPS is calculated gives it a strong bias towards slugging.

OBP is more valuable but OBP and SLG are added equally and the way SLG is calculated it produces a higher decimal number.
So yes, OPS does paint guys whose on-base skills are stronger than their power as less valuable offensively than they actually are and it shows guys whose power outpaces their on-base ability to be better than they really are.

And more than anything, the Win Share diff comes from the difference between great D at short and crap D in left.
I really think offensive stats are so sexy that people forget that is a massive difference..but yet if Furcal was an equally valuable player but that value came as a no-D big-bat 1b no one would argue.

Part of that problem is that defensive contributions are hard to evaluate accurately, no matter what stats you use, but there is undeniable that it makes a huge difference.

by nms on Feb 7, 2008 2:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OPS+ comparisons

As an example of your point, I think, you might compare Dave Kingman (115 career OPS+) to Luke Appling (112 career OPS+). I think most people would agree that Appling was the far better player for any number of reasons, but while his OBP was .399, he did not hit for much power and so has a lower OPS than Kingman with his .302 OBP.

There are counter examples, I know, but it does point up the problem of comparing very different types of players with different roles on their teams.

by bobr on Feb 7, 2008 7:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ichiro's is 119

That being said, point taken regarding the differing skill-sets needing different statistics and I'm not arguing that this should be the only statistic. But I'm curious - are you playing devil's advocate or do you actually think that Furcal is about as good or better than Adam Dunn or Alfonso Soriano?

by OldProspects on Feb 7, 2008 2:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i don't

understand why this is really so hard to acknowledge as a possibility. They are apples and oranges as players.

There is so much more to the game than offensive statistics. You're looking at half a players skills and just ignoring the other half

by nms on Feb 7, 2008 2:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Half and half...

I see a lot of 1 and 2-hole hitters getting dogged on this site because of their lack of SLG and OPS and it bothers me some. So I was playing devil's advocate some, but I also believe what I mentioned. It's all about skillset. If speed and stolen bases don't mean much, then teams would try to get more power in their 1 and 2-holes.

But, I also feel that Furcal has been just as valuable, if not more, than players like Burrell and Dunn. As someone mentioned above, he has an amazing arm, considered by many in baseball just a year or two ago to be the best infield arm in all of baseball (ESPN article, don't have a link).

If I had a choice between drafting Furcal, Burrell, and Dunn... and I had no other options at any of those positions, I would take Furcal. Last year was a down year for him (I don't think he was healthy most of the year) but usully you can count on him for 350 OBP and double digit HRs and triples, while stealing 30+ bases and giving you better than solid defense.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Feb 7, 2008 4:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's reasonable

I don't particularly agree, but I understand where you're coming from

by OldProspects on Feb 7, 2008 10:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

win shares?

i must have missed this. Can anyone explaint o me how this is forulated?

thanks

Charlie

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Feb 6, 2008 10:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Additionally

I've read a bit about win shares, but must have forgotten most of it. If Cust has 23WS last year, and Soriano has 157 Career WS...is that saying if Cust has 7 years (161) of doing what he did last year, he's better than soriano's 7 years? Is that because of Cust's .408 OBP last year v Soriano's .327 lifetime? I'm just not sure why any statistic would say 7 seasons of Cust's 2007 is better than Soriano's career!

by killa on Feb 7, 2008 1:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

one thing that should be

considered is that even James admits Win Shares are more useful for evaluating careers, or looking at the general contributions of many players (like right here) than for comparing specific guys head to head or season to season

by nms on Feb 7, 2008 2:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs