Help me with a serious "joke trade"

by DaleCoop14 on Feb 5, 2008 2:24 PM EST Comment 5 comments

In my dynasty H2H league, I usually send out some off-season trades in jest such as Joba, Ian Kennedy, and Damon for Johan with comments like, "If only the Twins could get so much from the Yankees..."

Well, one of my joke trades was Damon for Jason Bay, citing Damon's better 3-year averages. The offer was returned with a supposedly joke offer of Bay for Hafner. But I'm wondering if this is really a joke.

Here's some background. SBs are 1 pt, HRs are 4 + 1 rbi + 1 r, for 6 pts total. Position eligibility is easy in our league -- 5 games in the previous or current season -- so Hafner is easily eligible at 1B. In my lineup as of now are:

1B - Ortiz (Hafner, Damon)
OF - Sizemore, Ichiro, Sheffield (Damon, Bruce; also Juan Rivera, Stephen Pearce, who may be dropped for the draft)
DH - Hafner

The obvious reasons for turning this down are that two of my current infielders (Upton and Braun) may never play infield again, and then I will just have too many OFs.

But purely for this year, is it unreasonable to think Bay might out-perform Hafner in 2008? What about over the next few years?

Poll

Who is better now and in three years: Hafner or Bay?

Bay in 2008 -- Bay in 2010

11 votes

Bay in 2008 -- Hafner in 2010

2 votes

Hafner in 2008 -- Bay in 2010

19 votes

Hafner in 2008 -- Hafner in 2010

83 votes

115 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 5 comments

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Comments

No way

Hafner and Bay both had very down years last year. But in a typical year, Bay hits for less average (typically ~ .280s to Hafner's ~.300), less power and fewer RBI (playing with a worse lineup).

He also has a higher ceiling than Bay. Bay's advantage in speed doesn't make up for that, especially since in a dynasty league you have to project Bay to lose that edge in a year or so

by Locke000 on Feb 5, 2008 2:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This probably isnt real relavent, but check out

Bobby Higginson's career path and then look at Jason Bay.

I saw this comparison made at one point and if so, Bay is in for a rebound year this year, but Tiger's fans will cringe remembering what will follow.

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=1717&playerid2=469&playerid3=&position =OF&page=2&type=full

by grozzy on Feb 5, 2008 3:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Baseball Prospectus

This was on a BP player profile for Jason Bay.

by NMUWildcat027 on Feb 5, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure that correlation is significant

Pretty good correlation between Hafner and Bay too, for what it's worth, albeit with a one year headstart on the nosedive for Bay and a superhuman spike at age 29 for Hafner.

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=1573&playerid2=1717&playerid3=&positio n=DH&page=2&type=full

Ichiro, on facing Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time: "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul."

by DaleCoop14 on Feb 5, 2008 8:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

aging

The later your first MLB starting job, the earlier your peak and the quicker your decline. That's a generalization, but it's generally true. The guys who buck that trend have unusual skills that cushion their fall. Bay broke in at 25, he has a common profile and I'm pretty sure we've seen the best of him (though he's not toast by a long shot). Hafner was established even later, at 27, but he has few close age-group comps -- his blend of caveman power and high-average skills is unusual, statistically speaking. I don't like either of them five years from now, but in the shorter term, I'll take Pronk.

by whichthat on Feb 6, 2008 1:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs